95% of Traders Lose Because They Don’t Understand This One Bank Rule - Masterclass Lesson 1

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Kurze Zusammenfassung

Dieses Video ist der erste Teil einer 12-teiligen Masterclass, die Tradern helfen soll, die Funktionsweise der Finanzmärkte aus der Perspektive der Banken zu verstehen. Es wird erklärt, dass der Schlüssel zum erfolgreichen Trading darin liegt, die Strategien und das Geschäftsmodell der großen Finanzinstitute zu erkennen und sich danach auszurichten, anstatt auf traditionelle Indikatoren und Strategien zu vertrauen, die oft zum Scheitern führen. Das Video betont die Bedeutung des Verständnisses des Akkumulations- und Distributionsmodells, das von Banken verwendet wird, um große Positionen aufzubauen und mit Gewinn zu verkaufen.

  • Das Trading ist das Geschäft der Banken, nicht Ihres.
  • Banken nutzen das Akkumulations- und Distributionsmodell, um Gewinne zu erzielen.
  • Smart Money profitiert von den Fehlern des Dumb Money.

Einführung

Der Sprecher stellt eine 12-teilige Masterclass vor, die darauf abzielt, Tradern ein tiefes Verständnis der Funktionsweise der Märkte zu vermitteln. Er behauptet, dass traditionelle Trading-Methoden oft unvollständig oder sogar irreführend sind und dass es eine verborgene Struktur gibt, die von den meisten Tradern übersehen wird. Diese Struktur basiert auf der Art und Weise, wie Banken Liquidität schaffen, indem sie auf die Schmerzen der Masse setzen. Durch das Verständnis dieser Dynamik kann man den "Code des Trading" entschlüsseln und fundierte Entscheidungen treffen. Die Masterclass wird vier Hauptsäulen behandeln: das Spiel der Banken, das Erkennen von Mustern, die Multi-Timeframe-Analyse und die Marktpsychologie.

Das Spiel verstehen

Die meisten Trader verlieren, weil sie nicht verstehen, dass das Trading in erster Linie das Geschäft der Banken ist. Die Märkte bewegen sich aufgrund der Aktivitäten großer Institutionen wie Goldman Sachs und JP Morgan. Diese Institutionen betreiben ein Kerngeschäftsmodell, das auf Akkumulation und Distribution basiert. Sie kaufen große Positionen zu niedrigen Preisen und verkaufen sie später zu höheren Preisen, um Gewinne zu erzielen. Dieses Modell wurde ursprünglich von Richard Wyckoff beschrieben.

Akkumulation und Distribution

Akkumulation und Distribution ist das Modell, mit dem Banken große Geldmengen effizient bewegen und Gewinne erzielen. Es ähnelt dem Geschäftsmodell eines normalen Ladens, der zuerst Inventar zu niedrigen Preisen beschafft und es dann zu höheren Preisen verkauft. Im Trading bedeutet dies, dass man Aktien, Krypto oder Forex kauft, um ein persönliches Inventar aufzubauen, das später zu einem höheren Preis verkauft werden soll. Die Fähigkeit, Inventar zu den richtigen Preisen anzusammeln und mit Gewinn zu verteilen, ist die Hauptaufgabe eines Traders.

Wer bewegt die Preise und warum?

Nicht Retail-Trader oder zufällige Algorithmen, sondern Banken bewegen die Preise. Sie haben zwei Haupteinnahmequellen: Market Making und Eigenhandel. Banken manipulieren Angebot und Nachfrage, indem sie Angst und Aufregung erzeugen. Sie drücken die Preise, um Panikverkäufe auszulösen, und kaufen dann stillschweigend alles auf. Anschließend treiben sie die Preise wieder in die Höhe, um Käufer anzulocken, und verkaufen dann ihre Bestände.

Die Psychologie hinter den Marktbewegungen

Banken verdienen nur Geld, wenn andere Marktteilnehmer falsche Entscheidungen treffen. Daher ist es wichtig, dieses Modell zu verstehen und sich auf die Seite der Banken zu schlagen. Der Markt ist eine Ansammlung von Menschen mit unterschiedlichen Überzeugungen, und jede Kerze entsteht, weil jemand seine Meinung geändert hat. Das Verständnis dieser Psychologie hilft Tradern, nicht länger als "Treibstoff" für die Banken zu dienen, sondern selbst zum "Feuer" zu werden.

Smart Money vs. Dumb Money

Es gibt "Smart Money" und "Dumb Money" im Markt. Dumb Money glaubt, es besser zu wissen als der Markt, handelt auf der Grundlage von Wünschen statt Fakten und jagt späten Informationen hinterher. Smart Money hingegen wartet geduldig auf die Fehler des Dumb Money und profitiert davon. Smart Money weiß, dass sein Vorteil darin besteht, Geld von denjenigen zu extrahieren, die immer wieder die gleichen Fehler machen.

Wie Smart Money von Dumb Money profitiert

Banken akkumulieren Verkaufsaufträge am oberen Ende des Marktes und bereiten sich auf den nächsten Abwärtstrend vor. Wenn Nachrichten veröffentlicht werden, reagiert die Masse mit Verkäufen, was den Banken Gewinne bringt. Die Banken verteilen dann ihre Verkaufsbestände in Form von Käufen, um den Markt zu verlangsamen. Anschließend akkumulieren sie Kaufaufträge in Erwartung einer Markterholung. Wenn die Masse erkennt, dass sie überreagiert hat, kehrt sie zurück in den Markt, und die Banken verkaufen ihnen die Bestände mit Gewinn. Dumb Money ist der Treibstoff für diesen Kreislauf, und Smart Money benötigt Dumb Money, um zu existieren.

Fazit

Trading ist das Geschäft der Banken, aber das bedeutet nicht, dass man machtlos ist. Um erfolgreich zu sein, muss man verstehen, warum und wie Banken die Preise bewegen und die eigenen Trades an ihrem Geschäftszyklus ausrichten. Dieses Verständnis ist die Grundlage für einen langfristig erfolgreichen Trading-Ansatz. Das Video schließt mit dem Hinweis auf die Fortsetzung der 12-teiligen Serie und einem Link zur Website von Trade ATS.

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0:00 What if I told you that everything you've ever learned about trading, every indicator, every strategy, every pattern wasn't just incomplete, but was actually teaching you how to lose. What if I told you there's a hidden structure beneath every market, forex, stocks, indices, crypto, a structure that has existed since the beginning of modern trading, yet 95% of traders will never see it. About 13 years ago, in a moment of intense frustration, I discovered one insight that completely changed the way I analyze markets. What I figured out was mass market pain is the only guaranteed way for banks to create the liquidity they need to trade the way they must trade. When you understand how that pain is engineered [music] into every pattern and every setup, you stop

0:46 seeing randomness. You start seeing the code of trading, the matrix through the noise. every move begins to make sense and every trade either pays you or gives you information that leads to profit later. Since that discovery, I've taught thousands of traders this framework. Many of them have gone on to have very successful careers. I've built multiple trading softwares based on this methodology with loyal users all over the world. In some ways, this understanding has become a movement that has grown far beyond me. Today, you're stepping into a master class that reveals the real game institutions are playing. You're going to learn how the banks use time and psychology to [music] extract money from traders and why the market must operate this way. You're going to learn how to see the market from a superior vantage point, one that

1:33 lets you watch clearly how the banks capitalize on the patterns they must engineer to fulfill their obligations to shareholders and investors. You're about to learn the last trading pattern you will ever need to learn and the psychological framework behind every market top and bottom. By the end of this master class, you will never look at the chart the same way again. This 12-part master class is built around four major pillars. Pillar number one is the game. You're going to learn the actual game banks play and how you can participate without being on the losing side. Pillar number two is going to be mapping the master pattern. This is the universal way to map emotional thresholds in any market. This one skill will revolutionize how you find the best entries and exits. Pillar number three is going to be multi-time frame analysis

2:20 done correctly. When you apply this properly, it becomes the closest thing to insider trading without breaking the law. Pillar number four is market psychology. And I'm not talking about the old fear and greed doctrine that's been spread around for years. I'm talking about the deeper [music] human drivers that actually create all chart patterns, the emotional algorithm that powers every market on Earth. When you finish this entire series, you'll see how all four pillars connect and how they create a strategy that works in all markets, on all time frames, and in [music] all seasons. This isn't a loophole. This isn't a works only when conditions are perfect tactic. This methodology works always and forever, [music] as long as there are people behind the trades and the program trading algorithms that move markets. I'm not

3:07 going to overwhelm you with everything all at once. This 12-part series will roll out gradually, taking [music] you from beginner to pro with clarity and precision. So, make sure you subscribe, hit the notification bell so you don't miss the next lesson when it drops. With that said, let's get into the game. Level one, beginner understanding. [music] Most traders lose because they don't understand one simple truth. [music] This isn't your business. It's the bank's business. And until you learn their rules, you're playing a game that was never designed for you to win. [music] Let's fix that. Before you learn how to trade, you need to accept something uncomfortable. The markets don't move because of you. They move

3:52 because of the institutions that run the money of the world. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, central banks, they are the business owners. We are guests in their store. But here's the twist. Being a small player actually gives you a massive edge if you understand how their business works. If you really understand the mechanics of how they need to move money, you can anticipate market moves in a way that will leave most traders scratching their heads. The bank's business runs on one core model, accumulation and distribution. [music] From the bank's perspective, accumulation and distribution is simply buying massive positions quietly at discounted prices and later unloading them strategically at higher prices to extract maximum profit from market participants. The very first model of

4:38 understanding accumulation distribution was put together by trading pioneer Richard Wyoff. His insights have inspired many of the modern-day smart money concepts, styles of trading. While most smart money trading models out there are filled with holes and flaming pits, the biggest thing you need to understand are the basics of what Richard Wyoff taught. In a nutshell, accumulation and distribution is the model the banks have to use to efficiently move and profit from large amounts of money. Without implementing this model, there is no edge to make bank-sized returns every year. And without those huge returns, there are no banks. So, let's make this simple. Forget trading for a second. Think of a normal business in your city. A shop doesn't open its doors and immediately starts selling. First, it fills its back

5:24 room with inventory at the lowest price possible. Then, it sells that inventory to customers at higher prices for profit. That's accumulation distribution. Trading is the exact same thing. When you buy shares, either crypto or forex, you're not taking a trade. You're stocking your personal inventory, and your job is to sell that inventory later at a higher price. Doing this effectively is your only job as a trader. Your ability to effectively accumulate inventory at the right prices and distribute that inventory for a profit is your only job. There are countless indicators and technical analysis methods that have captured the attention and devotion of almost the entire retail trading world. And yet 95% of traders still fail. Why? Because they don't follow the business model of the

6:10 5% who consistently win. They don't understand who moves price, why they move price, or how they move price. So, let's answer those questions right now. Who moves price? Not retail traders, not random algorithms. Banks move price from Goldman Sachs all the way up to the Federal Reserve. They have two major profit engines. One is market making, matching buyers and sellers and taking a small spread in between. Two is proprietary trading, building massive positions, holding [music] them, and unloading them for profit. Goldman Sachs alone pulled $ 8.5 billion in profit in 2023. The majority of this likely came through their proprietary trading division using the accumulation in distribution model. On the global scale, they're not even a big bank. So why do

6:56 banks do this? Sure, money is one motivation, but when you already control money, the next thing you want is influence. Profit becomes power. Power becomes control. Your imagination can fill in the rest. So how do banks actually make their money? This is what 95% of traders never learn. Banks have the power to manipulate supply and demand within certain bounds. A common misconception is that banks have to always engage in illegal antics to make money. While banks regularly pay fines for this type of behavior, it's not always necessary. Since they are masters of controlling perception, they can manipulate markets in a strategic way. They create fear. They create excitement. They push price down so sellers panic. Then they quietly buy everything. Then they push price back up. So buyers rush in. Then they sell

7:42 everything. You could think of accumulation distribution just like this. Let's say some sort of news comes out and it creates a panic in the market. That panic causes the general market to want to sell their positions, starting to move the price down. Now, from the bank's perspective, this creates the perfect environment for them to start accumulating their own inventory at discounted prices because the banks know that this market's not falling apart and it's still going to likely continue in its uptrend. So, they're able to accumulate discounted inventory from these willing sellers that are emotionally reacting. They accumulate here, here, here, and as the market starts to range out, they start propping that price up, buying the other

8:28 side of all of that selling volume. So, they accumulate their positions here. What happens next is that the mass market starts saying, "Maybe we overreacted. Maybe the world isn't ending after all. I got to get back in." They see that it's starting to bottom out. So, the market then naturally starts to return to its upper equilibrium in its upward trajectory. they start jumping in and they now want to buy in mass to come back in. Who's going to sell to them? Well, the banks accumulated that discount inventory in this region and now they are able to sell as the demand comes back into the market. That which they accumulated earlier at lower prices. So banks distribute their inventory, the market goes up, starts to range out and then the cycle continues. The only way the

9:14 banks are going to make money is if they have people making the wrong decision at the wrong price so they can do the opposite. And your entire job as a trader is to study this model because it is the only thing that constantly repeats over and over again. If you can't see this model, there is no trade because you don't have all the pieces in place that you need to make a quality trade, which is someone making the wrong decision, you making the right decision. You want to be on the same side that the bank is every time. That's the game. The market is nothing more than a giant crowd of people with different beliefs. Every candle exists because someone changed their mind. Someone believed price was going up. Someone believed it was going down. Understanding this psychology is how you stop being fuel

10:01 and start becoming fire. Let's simplify this with a story. A seller comes in. They think the bull run is over. They want to unload, let's say, 100 shares for $1,000. You step in. Your belief is different. You think buyers will come in at higher prices. So, you buy their shares. You accumulate inventory. Prices rise. A new buyer appears and says, "This thing's going to the moon. I need 100 more shares." Perfect. You sell your inventory for $1,500. You just made a $500 profit. That's trading in its purest form. A simple business of middlemen dealing with other middlemen. Your goal should be to become the very best middleman that you can be. So, who should you copy in this industry? Should you listen to the trading gurus who are so busy and successful that they have to

10:46 film all their videos from the road while driving their Lambo? Or should you study where the majority of the money in the markets ends up and then copy [music] them? In this business, there is smart money and dumb money. Dumb money thinks they know better than the market. Dumb money makes trades based on what they want to happen, not based on what is happening. Dumb money chases markets based on late information. Dumb money operates on delusions of fast, easy profits. Smart money simply waits for dumb money to mess up. Smart money knows its major edge comes from extracting money from the people who repeatedly make the same mistakes. Without those dynamics in place, there is no trade to be had. They [music] wait and they strike when the market is vulnerable.

11:32 Here's a simple way to visualize how smart money feeds off of dumb money's decisions. We think about the accumulation distribution cycle in a circular fashion. So at the top of the market, the banks are accumulating sell orders in preparation for the next down move. They're probably anticipating some sort of news and mostly they're anticipating [music] the overreaction of the mass market. So they prepare for that. As that news comes out, the crowd then reacts. They sell, pushing the [music] market into a profit for the banks. The banks then start to distribute that sell inventory in the form of buys. So they're adding that buy demand back into the market. That will slow the market down. Then the banks start accumulating buy orders in the

12:18 preparation for the rebound of the market because they know this was already an overreaction and hasn't really changed the fundamentals of that market. So they start accumulating buys. Then the crowd cools off. They realize they overreacted. They come back in, then the banks sell to them as the market rises up. Again, accumulating inventory and distributing it for profit. What you need to understand is that dumb money is the fuel to this circular process. without them having their overreactions and reacting to late information and following their traditional technical indicators and the [music] insights from whatever guru that that they're watching that's telling them what to buy or sell. Without them doing all of that, the banks can't do

13:04 what they do, which is run their profit generating machine. So, this is a simple way to visualize that. Smart money requires dumb money to exist. Make sure that you're not the latter. Here's the final takeaway. This is not your business. You are playing inside a much bigger business dominated by banks and institutions. [music] But that doesn't make you powerless. If you want to win at trading, your only priority is to understand why banks move price, how they move prices, and how to align your trades with their business cycle. When you understand their blueprint, you will always understand [music] exactly what you should be doing, and what price will likely do next. This is the foundation to building a successful approach that will last. That concludes lesson one. Like I said

13:49 before, this is part of a 12-part series that will be dripped out over time. So, make sure you subscribe, hit the notification bell to get notified when the next lesson drops. If you want to learn more about what we do at Trade ATS, please visit our website linked in the description. Thanks for watching and we'll see you on the next lesson. [music]

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