Vollständiges Transkript von „Bear Market or Bear Trap?“. Klicke auf einen Zeitstempel, um das Video an dieser Stelle zu öffnen. Du brauchst ein anderes Video? Nutze den YouTube-Transkript-Generator.
0:00 Warning, this video and all other videos on this channel are for entering purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital happens unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and this is the weekend's deep dive. However, I think this week is going to be more like a shallow dive. We are still stuck in this range for the stock market and it can really go either way. I'm not trying to pretend like we know which direction it's going to go. All I am saying for sure is when it moves and the direction is finally revealed, I think the move is going to be very violent. So my job is not really to try to guess or predict whether it's going to go up or down. My job is simply to be positioned as I already am for the downside just in case. And if that's invalidated, we will flip long. So I will run through this thing, but at a
0:46 much faster pace and leaving out a bunch of the details because there's not a great deal of changes to it. So I don't want to waste your time and I don't want to waste my time. I'll try and squeeze some value into this short video and then we'll look at the charts and the TA and the live positions as always at the end ready for next week. So, we are still suggesting that we are somewhere in the middle of this blowoff top, probably closer to the top than the bottom now at this point and that once the top comes in a global bare market and recession will follow the top before ultimately slipping into a short period of asset price deflation. When we fast forward to today, you can clearly see that we have had a big blowoff top. Okay, this has clearly been a big vertical move. These have been some unprecedented gains for the market. We have round about doubled off of the lows back in October of 2022. And for a while, we were still on this channel suggesting that this wasn't quite yet done and that probably we were somewhere
1:32 between the FOMO and euphoria portion. Okay, so we'd had that first spill. We then made our way up to somewhere around the FOMO and euphoria neighborhood. Again, the first spill be the tariff tantrum somewhere approaching FOMO and Euphoria is where we believed to be. However, since all the way back in early December, we have been warning that potentially we could still be having to deal with some kind of sneaky sideways distributive type top that would quietly roll over. We'd actually top this way. Now, at the time I posted this back in early December, I was suggesting that this is not the most likely outcome. I was suggesting that I still think we're going to get the blowoff top. I think we'd be able to breathe a sigh of relief and invalidate this pretty pronto with a decisive break and move above the 7K level for the S&P 500. and then we could all have a party and be long and strong and continuing to jump up and down a screen, blow off top. However, again, we
2:17 have to acknowledge that this is back in early December and we're now just days away from the month of March having made zero progress with zero closes above the 7K level with zero closes above the invalidation for the bearish case. Okay, so this doesn't really look like this FOMO and euphoria portion, does it? It doesn't look like we just had a brief pause here before going vertical in a straight line. It doesn't really look like that at this point. It looks like we got here and then started to go sideways. Okay, looks much more distributive in nature. The longer it goes sideways, the more probable it is that the top is in for this four-year cycle. So, I'll show you the live trades, the setups, how we're handling this, and how we're positioned to capture the upside or the downside when it is revealed when we get to the charts at the end. For Bitcoin, we were cheering on this kind of weekly cycle and double pattern. Okay, the weekly cycle lows have been very consistent. Most of them have yielded large upside
3:03 out of those weekly cycle lows. However, at this stage, it's quite clear that the four-year cycle topped back in October. It's quite clear that we are going to remain in a bare market for at least a while longer. Okay, the first real chance at a sustainable bottom or at least a short-term bottom would come from this weekly cycle low mid year. Okay, but based on the four year cycles, it's expected that this would left translate and fail as well down into that fouryear low where I maintain this is the next major opportunity here. There is an outside chance that if we continue at this rate of decline, we'll be able to force a 4year cycle low in here nice and early instead of have to wait till the year end. So either way, I think that weekly cycle low midyear for both the stocks and for Bitcoin represents an opportunity for at least some short-term swing trades, but really the focus remains on those four-year lows at the end of this year for the
3:48 next major opportunities. Of course, there'll be some other trades on the way down. There always is. And we started to even add some short positions and that kind of thing. But for now, again, pretty straightforward, okay? There's nothing really to do here until we at least see this weekly cycle low. And then depending on the price level at which it forms depends on how much of a serious bottom we can start to consider it whether it will just be a more short-term bottom like if it's at this kind of 50-ishk level or above. And if it's kind of sub 40k then I think we can start to entertain that that is the absolute bottom of this bare market and fouryear cycle for bitcoin. But given how the stock market is behaving I suggest to you this is going to be long and painful and a bit more drawn out for a bit longer first. As I said at the start, we're expecting a short period of asset price deflation simply because anything you do to the MC rate change shows up in the CPI with the lag. And every week we say pretty much the same thing. Okay, it's not going to be a
4:34 straight line down. This move here was probably a little overzealous. And now I think we're somewhere caught up with reality. Okay, but wholly speaking, this is probably going to continue until eventually we do slip into deflation. Yes, there'll be some count bounces along the way, okay, as there always is. But the trend is still disinflationary, so we don't have to invalidate this setup either. And we know that a big problem with the government reported CPI data is that they use shelter as their primary component of the basket and shelter massively lags. So if you swap the shelter here in blue with ALRI which is a real-time metric, you'll see that inflation has been well under control for a long time and the same is true for both headline and core CPI. If you swap them with ALRI instead of using the shelter component which lags in the current CPI basket, inflation has been well below 2% for a long time. So, no
5:21 changes to that. People always say, "Well, what about PCE?" And PCE, of course, has had a counter trend rally as well, but probably this was a little overzealous to begin with, again, as we've been saying. And again, nothing moves in straight lines. So, let the thing play out. It's a macro call. It moves slowly. I'm sure this thing's going to continue to resolve down, and we'll ultimately be slipping into a short period of asset price deflation sometime around those four-year cycle lows for the markets. As I also said, we're still calling for a recession. Okay? We still think we're closer than ever to actually having entered a recession. It's just the NBER who are officially in charge of dating the recessions always do so with around a 12-month lag. We look at the jobs data here and we say this whole thing looks like it's been in a steady decline for a long time. It's true when we look at the unemployment rate, okay, straight off the camel finance website here and you can see this thing just is continuing to curl up. So either this is the first time ever that this is not important and
6:07 is not going to lead to a recession or this is just like all the other ones and again they will go back and paint those bars retrospectively to show that we've been in a recession for some time and the unemployment is going to continue to get worse. We see this same pattern emerge with various other forms of unemployment. This is the unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year olds. Again, still looking like the leadin before that push to the upside synonymous with recessions. Same for U6 here. Okay. And it's also the same for the SAM recession rule. So, kind of chopping around, okay, but it's not going to take much to get a big push. And if we get a big push again, usually you can see the NBER goes back and paints the bars. And if they did the same thing here, okay, let's say we get the SAM recession rule push up here like this. Okay, it's entirely feasible they'll go back and paint a recession bar somewhere in here and then you know it would just be normal and to be expected. That's exactly what they do in all other instances. So again, no
6:53 real changes to that. The rate cuts I still maintain are overly restrictive based on everything I've just said. But remember, it's not really the Fed that sets rates. Neither is it set by any macro data despite that being their current rhetoric that they're data dependent and that they are using inflation and jobs to determine the rates. We say tell that to the bond market because it is the yields that set the Fed funds rate. is the bond market in aggregate that determines rates. When we go to the chart of truth, the 10-year yield, you can see this thing is selling off heavily. We've been talking about how we probably need to see about 3.8% to start to really put rate cuts on the table. And that's simply because this entire thing has really been a big range with a deviation to the upside here and a fake breakout that goes all the way back to around September of last year. So, if we can actually set some new lows here, then of course that would be the bond market in aggregate setting rates and the Fed will do what it always do, which is follow the yields and cut
7:39 rates. I think we're just about starting to see this as the yields approach that true breakdown level at the bottom of this range and look for new lows relative to these lows back here. And that is why that we are starting to nudge in the favor of cuts. If I go to a compare, you can see that a week ago we were at 96 and a half% probability of remaining paused. A day ago we were at 95 and a half% and now we sit here at 92.6. Again, nothing moves in straight lines. There's probably going to be a violent snapback rally here. Okay, we might have to deal with that and that might delay the rate cuts until the following FOMC. Again, it really doesn't matter what anyone thinks, says, or does so long as these rates can print new lows and start to head down sub 3.8, then we should be able to put cuts on the table. And if it takes a long time and in the meantime, we do something more like this for a while and then down, okay, then guess what? We won't be cutting rates until we get sub 3.8. But
8:24 we're getting pretty close, aren't we? And we're starting to see the repricing occur. So, it's really up to how much of a sustainable bottom has been found in the bond markets and how therefore topped the yields are. But again, expect some counter trend bounces on the way. Okay, that's just normal and to be expected. Of course, ignoring the token rate cut we saw back in September before then we stayed paused for a while. Okay, we're in that neighborhood now where if these are cuts into a slowdown, which of course we maintain it is because rather than have a return to baseline inflation with a soft landing, I am making the case we have got an inverted yield curve which only happens at recessions. We've got labor market deterioration and the inflation has been heavily disinflationary for a very long time now. In fact, the real risk is deflation here, not a resumption of inflation. And deflation, of course, can be catalyzed by stock market spills. So, for us on
9:10 this channel, it's very, very interesting that we're kind of right in this sweet spot here where we're getting ready to start to see potentially, if these are indeed cuts into a recession, tops coming in. And at the same time, as all of this is true, we have got the S&P sneaking into a more distributive type top rather than completing the blowoff top schematic here. Okay, we are deviating away from this parabolic blowoff top and starting to look more and more like we are curling and rounding before turning down. So, it can change and it can change quickly, but it hasn't changed yet. Okay, if it is to turn down, it won't be super surprising to us. Just before we get into the TA and the live positions at the end, as always, I wanted to briefly touch on the alarm signals. Okay, when these high yield credit spreads blow out typically is synonymous with financially stressed conditions. Now, at the moment, it hasn't done that, but again, it kind of looks to me like it's on the starting blocks here. And if the breakdown is to
9:56 confirm in the stocks, then I suspect this thing is going to break out. And if it does, that tells me that it is time to get seriously defensive. So, it's not designed to be doom and gloom or panic or monger in fear. It's just simply saying if the breakdown occurs and our shorts start to profit, as you're about to see in a minute, we are short the stock market, then we would expect this thing to blow out and if this thing blows out, then we take that as a confirmation signal. The top is really in and we have to seriously respect the downside risk. And a similar concept with these alarm signals applies to the yield curve. Okay, a lot of people scream recession when this thing inverts and they're wrong. They do the same when it reverts back above zero and again they're wrong. It's actually the sweep. Okay, it's the accelerative pop. It is the blowout in the yield spreads that is synonymous with marking the tops. Okay, that's what actually functions as the alarm signals is when these things blow out and sweep to the upside. For an
10:42 updated look at the yield spreads, okay, so far no alarm signals just yet. Okay, so I think we can sit here and say there's no reason to panic. There's no reason to be spreading fear or doom and gloom. Anyone that is calling for the sky to fall is probably a little bit overzealous here. They're probably a little bit on the engagement farming side of the equation. I would suggest for now, I don't really see anything that makes me think we're about to see the end of the world as we know it. I think we can go back here and finish as we started. Okay, if we are going to continue the blowoff top, we should start to see a violent upside move and a break decisively above 7K for the S&P 500. And if all of those conditions are met, then we expect to be long to capture the upside. At the same time, as much as we'd love to see the blowoff top, we have to accept that since all the way back in December when this first started to look like a possibility, we
11:28 have yet to been able to invalidate the bearish setup. And it currently looks more and more likely by the day. So, we do have to acknowledge that. We can also take a moment to pause here and acknowledge we don't have to choose a side or pretend like we know what's going to happen. We can simply sit here and let the market reveal its direction. If down, then fine. We're already short, as I will show you in a moment. And if up, then fine. We will get stopped out on our short. We'll flip long and we'll catch the upside. Very very rare to have such a clear invalidation and binary setup so close to the current action. And so as promised heading into the TA and live trades, here we go. Okay, we've been short for a little while. You can see pretty much right from the top. Very, very high riskreward here. And public stop loss as always at 7044. So that's the level in which we're wrong. A decisive break above 7K, as I've said a million times, will be me cheering on a blowoff top and looking to get long and capture the upside. Hoping again to point back at this and say, "Yes, here
12:14 we go. It's going to be insane for the next month to come." But as it stands right now, can't really do that. Okay, it continues to make lower highs and lower lows. And until such time as that changes, then I think we have to be cautious here. Again, though, don't have to be doomongering because we haven't got any blowouts in the yield curves. And we certainly don't have high yield credit blowing out either. So again, no need to be panicked, just simply observing what's happening. I will say this, the NASDAQ looks considerably weaker and considerably worse, and it's just a few percentage points away from weekly cycle failure back here. And of course, if we lose, that does indeed set up something like this yellow squiggle because weekly cycle failure would imply that we have to trade lower into the upcoming weekly cycle mid year. And again, all of this would actually align with Bitcoin's chart, wouldn't it? Decline into a weekly cycle midyear, a big counter trend rally to a lower high before again rolling over to print a four-year cycle low. So perhaps Bitcoin
13:01 has been leading the downside the entire time. I also look at the MAG 7 a lot lately and notice that this thing looks well and truly topped. Perhaps like tech is also leading. And look at where the top occurred there, right around the same time as Bitcoin. So, was big tech and Bitcoin leading the downside? It certainly seems that way. Now, again, it could change. It could change quickly. It just hasn't changed yet. That's the reality of the situation. Of course, we still have plenty of positions in profit in the member section on YouTube, such as the Russell 2K, which is still trending up. We've got the semiconductor positions, which we've added multiple times on the way up, including leverage positions of late. They're doing great. We've got a bunch of these kind of gold and silver stocks that are pushing higher. multiple positions stacked in the likes of CJ and we're still holding all these gold mining ETFs from the weekly cycle scribbles down here. Okay, so things are looking up in other areas of the market. There are still plenty of
13:47 places to profit from so long as you're not all in one asset class. And even the silver position looks like we're going to be ripping to new highs. And I shudder to think how high the upside target is. I don't really want to put a number on it because I'm not really that kind of guy. I'm much more of a let the thing push until it breaks and then try to sell it type of guy. But I've got a sneaky suspicion we're going to be up in this kind of neighborhood here pretty soon. So that is going to be absolutely wild and then I think we're going to get an almighty correction thereafter. But as ever, one day at a time. Stocks on a knife edge. And again, it's not our job to choose. Gold and silver we continue to profit from in the member section and will continue to profit from for the foreseeable future because they're not invalidating any setups, are they? Okay. The indicator doing the business. The indicator picking the lows down here. Now breaking to new highs. So we've been drawing this squiggle and saying something like this. Daily cycle low inside the window. indicator will pick this to tell us once we got a
14:33 confirmation via trend line we can get long again and then we just keep going up and we move the invalidation to that cycle low and look to sell trend line break. So same stuff over and over again but it works despite it being as simple as it is. Bitcoin we kind of already did. I think it's just going to be stuck in this range and kind of sideways and down until we get to the mid year and then I think we can have an actual trade setup here hopefully with some higher beta assets to play counter trend bounces on as well like the crypto stocks. And that is really all there is to it. Okay, so again, just waiting to see what happens. Hoping to be wrong on the short position cuz I'm not trying to cheer on the end of the world and a big global bare market and a recession. I'm certainly not trying to cheer on deflation and people losing their jobs and that kind of thing. I am just looking at this setup and saying, you know, it seemed criminal at the time not to take it. And hopefully we can invalidate it. Hopefully we can get long. But so far, there is nothing in
15:20 the charts to say that that is the case. Keep in mind, however, there's also nothing to say that it's the end of the world just yet in the alarm signals. Okay, so that concludes what I hope is not too long today and a bit of a shallow dive as more and more data comes out and we can actually add some more detail into this. We'll come back and do a deep dive next weekend hopefully and look out for the direction to be revealed. I have a sneaky suspicion it's not going to be until mid-March just based on the daily cycles, but I'm open to anything as ever. Other than that, have a fantastic weekend. If you're a level three member, look out for the members only video I'm about to post for you guys. And if you want to get started with all things cycles, including try the indicator out completely free for two weeks and then you can click here in about 10 seconds. Other than that, all the best from me. Cheers. Bye.
16:06 >> Tra like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the markets key. Taking a stormies on a bumpy ride. Casting those emotions.
