How to use Claude Opus 4.6 to Build Advanced Trading Strategies (Full Tutorial)

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Kurze Zusammenfassung

Das Video behandelt die Probleme beim Backtesting und stellt fortgeschrittene Methoden zur Verbesserung der Genauigkeit und Zuverlässigkeit von Trading-Strategien vor. Es wird die Verwendung von KI zur Analyse von Märkten und zur Entwicklung von Handelsstrategien kritisiert und eine eigene Trading Engine sowie die Plattform Signal Swap vorgestellt, die automatisiertes Backtesting ermöglicht. Wichtige Punkte sind:

  • Die meisten Backtests werden nicht korrekt durchgeführt und vernachlässigen statistische Analysen.
  • KI kann bei der Marktanalyse und Strategieentwicklung hilfreich sein, ist aber oft unzuverlässig.
  • Das Aufteilen von Daten in Trainings- und Testdatensätze ist entscheidend, um Overfitting zu vermeiden.
  • Signal Swap bietet eine Plattform für automatisiertes Backtesting und die Entwicklung von Handelsstrategien.
  • Die Verwendung von KI zur automatischen Optimierung von Strategieparametern ist ein vielversprechender Ansatz.

Einführung in die Probleme beim Backtesting

Der Sprecher kritisiert die gängige Praxis von Backtests, die oft ohne angemessene statistische Analyse durchgeführt werden. Er kündigt an, sowohl grundlegende als auch fortgeschrittene Methoden vorzustellen, um Backtests zu verbessern. Er ermutigt die Zuschauer, den Kanal zu abonnieren und das Video zu liken, um die Sichtbarkeit im Algorithmus zu erhöhen.

Analyse des Goldmarktes mit KI

Der Sprecher testet live die Fähigkeiten von KI (Gemini) zur Analyse des Goldmarktes. Die KI empfiehlt Trading-Bereiche, die jedoch auf den aktuellen Höchst- und Tiefstständen basieren und keine klare Aussage über die zukünftige Marktentwicklung treffen. Der Sprecher bemängelt, dass die KI keine Bestätigung für einen Ausbruch aus dem aktuellen Trend liefert und die Analyse daher wenig aussagekräftig ist.

Micron Tech KI Analyse Kritik

Die KI analysiert Micron Tech und empfiehlt einen Einstiegspunkt und ein Kursziel, basierend auf einem erwarteten Speicher-Superzyklus. Der Sprecher kritisiert, dass die KI die Möglichkeit eines Double Tops und einer anschließenden Kapitulation nicht berücksichtigt. Er bemängelt, dass die KI keinen klaren Hinweis auf eine Trendwende gibt und das Kursziel unrealistisch hoch angesetzt ist. Er schlägt vor, dass ein niedrigerer Einstiegspunkt sinnvoller wäre.

Vorstellung der Custom Trading Engine

Der Sprecher stellt seine eigene Trading Engine vor, die schnellere Backtests als TradingView ermöglicht. Die Engine verwendet historische Daten von 2018 bis 2022 für das Training und behält Daten für die Validierung zurück. Die Backtest-Ausgabe ähnelt TradingView und zeigt Parameter der Strategie sowie den Nettogewinn-Graphen. Es werden Monte-Carlo-Simulationen durchgeführt, um die Robustheit der Strategie zu testen.

Zurückhalten von Daten zur Validierung

Der Sprecher erklärt, dass ein Teil der Daten zurückgehalten wird, um die Strategie mit ungesehenen Daten zu testen. Dies ist wichtig, um zu überprüfen, ob die Strategie auch in unbekannten Marktsituationen funktioniert. Es werden tausende von Simulationen mit randomisierten Versionen der Historie durchgeführt, um die Zuverlässigkeit der Strategie zu beurteilen. Die erwarteten Kennzahlen (Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio) sind geringer als in den Trainingsdaten.

Data Splitting Strategie Erklärt

Der Sprecher erklärt die Bedeutung des Data Splittings. Wenn Backtests über den gesamten Datensatz durchgeführt werden, hat die Strategie alle Daten bereits gesehen. Um dies zu vermeiden, wird der Datensatz in Trainings- und Testdaten aufgeteilt (z.B. 60/40). Die Strategie wird auf den Trainingsdaten optimiert und anschließend mit den Testdaten validiert. Dies hilft, Overfitting zu vermeiden und die Wahrscheinlichkeit zu erhöhen, dass die Strategie auch in der Zukunft funktioniert.

Vermeidung von Live Trading Albträumen

Der Sprecher warnt vor dem Albtraum, dass eine Strategie im Live-Trading versagt, obwohl sie im Backtest gut aussah. Dies kann passieren, wenn die Strategie überoptimiert wurde oder sich die Marktbedingungen geändert haben. Um dies zu vermeiden, ist es wichtig, Daten zurückzuhalten und die Strategie mit ungesehenen Daten zu testen. Der Sprecher stellt Signal Swap vor, eine Plattform, die automatisiertes Backtesting ermöglicht und hilft, solche Fehler zu vermeiden. Alpha-Tester sind willkommen, um die Plattform zu testen und Feedback zu geben. Die Plattform bietet auch einen Marktplatz für Handelsstrategien, der nur Strategien mit realen, verifizierten Daten zulässt. Die KI kann auch verwendet werden, um neue Exit-Signale zu entwickeln und zu testen, was den gesamten Prozess automatisiert.

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0:00 I have to be radically honest with you. Nobody is doing back tests properly today. Like I've seen across YouTube, people are doing single back tests. They're not doing proper statistical analysis. I'm going to show you how to do that today and get into it if you're a complete beginner or even if you want some advanced methods. I'm going to talk about them both. So, hit the subscribe button if you're new to the channel and like the video. Helps boost it in the algorithm. So, let's just dive right in. This is Signal Swap. We're going to be talking about this platform today. And also in general, AI is really bad at trading. Now, there's a lot of ways that I've seen people use AI in their trading. I'm just on Gemini, just to be clear. I'm not completely wet to Gemini. I've used Chat GBT, Claude. I really love Cloud Code. We're going to be using Cloud Code today in some of our more

0:46 advanced methods. So, we're just going to see how garbage this is. First, I It actually might be good. This is I'm doing a live test. I'm going to ask Chat uh I'm going to ask Gemini. Well, well, Gemini, can you research the best stock opportunities for me to trade this week? Something close to a a breakout so we can see is something up and coming if if Gemini can really dive into that and see if that's happening. And we're going to use foundational analysis as well so it can research kind of the back end of the companies, what's going on, and also technical analysis. I've also plugged in deep research just so that we can get the most of it. I want to use the best of AI. So, this is really I I I don't want this to be a small prompt. I want it really to give me its best well thoughtout answers. And so would research crypto, forex, all kinds of different markets. Uh over 75 uh total

1:34 citations, and I'm going to show you how much garbage this is. Okay. Uh I highly doubt this going to work out in the real world, but you know, we could plot it out. We'll see if it works out. Actually, I'm going to maybe it'll work out. I'm not going to trash it too early. For example, if we just break down the gold analysis really quickly using TA, it's recommending 4850 4,900 with a takerit of 5120. And plotting those on our chart are just those are just our recent high and recent low that it's gathered for us, which is actually not telling us whether it thinks that it's going to be a flat market here. Like it's just going to trend in this area for a while. But I mean, look at this blowoff peak, right? like we have no guarantee if we're even going to break out of this area here. So, it's it is unclear cuz we could just keep we

2:21 could just keep crashing down. There's there's no confirmation yet. There was no real like, okay, well, if if we draw a line here hypothetically, like let's say we come down a time frame, we come here, we can see what's really going on. I mean, yeah, we might have some momentum here to break out, but and if we do, yeah, that that would be a good target, but there's there's no confirmation, at least yet. So, you know, it's it's not the worst price action. It's not the worst technical analysis, but I've seen uh a lot of these. Let's do one more. We're going to check out Micron Tech. So, 390 to 405 is our entry, and our target is 447, and it's supposed to be a memory super cycle. Now, that is true. There is a memory super cycle. Like, people are talking about RAM. RAM is exploding in

3:06 price right now. So, that could be true. Let's let's check out the TA. So, Micron has had an absolutely massive run up until the point that it is now. And we've had a massive blowoff top again with a small rebound. This could be just a double top and it could completely capitulate. I've we've seen that happen in the crypto market before. So, there's not even you you can't even really see a clear confirmation that we're bouncing here. This is where it's telling our entry and it wants us to go up to not just the recent high, but the high before that one, the all-time high, which what are the odds that we have enough momentum to keep doing that? There might be a cool off period. There's no guarantee this is going to happen immediately as well. And so, you know, maybe entering down at these prices down here around 360, 365 might

3:51 be a little bit better. But, you know, that's just what AI said. So, you know, take it or leave it. Now, I'm personally not going to just take or leave it. I have a different method that I'm going to show you today. So, this is my trading engine that I've developed. It's I'm not sharing the code for obvious reasons, but it basically does back tests and it does them way faster than Trading View does. So, it's essentially exactly like Trading View. It has, you know, the charts. I can show you just one result here. This is what one of the results will look like. This is the training data and the data is from 2018 all the way to it looks like 2022 some somewhat. I don't have the exact date here. So this is what the back test output looks like. It exactly like trading view. It has all the parameters for my strategy right here. And then the net profit graph. Now this graph goes

4:37 from 2018 to 2022. And then we have data that we have withheld. We have uh bootstrap training. So Monte Carlo simulations where we randomize the candlesticks. But I'm just showing you the training data. So you can see that after the after the training data ended, we withheld this data just to show it at the end after we had selected our parameters to see well does how does this work on unseen data. Now that's a really good way to do your back tests. And we didn't just do one back test. This is one version of reality but there are bootstraps thousands of simulations of different randomized versions of history that this strategy held up in. Now, not all of them are going to pass, but if it's reliable in the vast majority of them, that is a really good sign because, you know, we don't know which version of the future we're going

5:23 to go into. So, back tests aren't never guaranteed, but we can use that data, manipulate it, and spit out, you know, some statistics. Like, we can get reliable, sharp, and sort ratios from our actual tests. We're going to expect them to be far less good than our actual training data. You can see here the net profit uh was 203 here from 2022 to 2025. So over 3 years and then the training data uh which was a little bit more data but it has 700 over 700 uh% profit with only 17% draw down. So definitely better. But you can see that you know the training data still went it still went up. And notice how so when we go to trading view what we want to also see if we do our back tests on the entire data set like if we do a deep back test we select for you know the

6:11 entire history all the way to the very beginning and then all the way to today. Well we're not withholding any data. So when we tune our parameters our strategy has already seen all of the data. So we can't actually know how it's going to respond if we had extra data. So if we that's why we split up the data and we do you know maybe 50/50 or we have 60/40. So we just train on 60% of the data and then withhold this data over to the right hand side of the chart. And then you would do a secondary back test on that afterwards just to confirm that it's still good because some parameters might really work on only some of the data and some of it might work on you know only like you want it to work on all the data right and for it to be flexible and then also there's data that

6:58 has doesn't exist yet. It's in the future. That's the goal. You want it to work on the future data. So the nightmare that you do not want to see is if you do your back test let's say we set our trading view alerts. We set it up, you know, over on signals swap.io and then we automate our strategy so it's trading automatically for for us. Well, if this is our our all-time high peak over on the right hand side of our equity chart and the chart just starts dropping from there, you know, it looked good in history, but as soon as we hooked it up live, it started tanking. That is the worst nightmare. That's where you you don't want to end up in. And that's why you want to know withhold some of that data. And, you know, if you don't want to build your own strategy engine, signals Swap.io IO is a great way to do this. This is my own website that I'm working on with developers. We're almost near launch and if you want

7:44 to come alpha test it, just send me a message in the Discord server. Just ping me uh over at our Discord channel. We have the link down in the description. And there is a back testing feature. So, this website can you can hook up your buy bit strategies, Apex, Pineex strategies, and it'll trade automatically for you. But the best feature and the one that I'm going to keep hammering is that it does back test for you in Pinescript. You upload your pine script and then it does the back test. So you set which parameters you want to tune from all the way through and it'll do every single back test that is possible within the the grids that you set up. So if you want to test an EMA 1 to 50, it'll do every single EMA in between there. Or you could set a a step. So you could jump up and do EMA 1

8:30 3 6 etc. etc. So, the alpha testers can essentially get free access uh if you want to help me test it out and report bugs and things like that. Hook up your strategies and also get them posted on the marketplace early if you want to have an advantage. If you have a really good strategy, you want to post it on the marketplace, hook up your signals and start rolling them in because you can publish to the marketplace if you have two months of data. So, alpha traders who are helping out get a head start there to get first on the marketplace. So, if you have a really good strategy, the the marketplace is going to use only real signals. So, all of the graphs that you'll see on the marketplace as it's built out, I'm going to add in all of my bots here. These are just test bots, are going to use only real data that was collected from the website, from the user's actual bot. If they choose to publish it, if it's doing

9:16 really well, it'll give them the option to publish. If it's not doing well, fortunately, no. You you can't you can't pause. It actually has to be performing. And then also there will be this back testing uh panel here which I don't have configured for this test bot but there will be graphics here showing something kind of like this like this panel here just for you know what what actually happened in in each phase of the the back test. So number one thing is here I really got sick of configuring my trading strategy parameters myself. You know, I'm going to show you how many settings there are. This strategy, the Wolfback bot, which I currently have access, but uh on w.comtradeactics, but not for that much longer. I'm going to publish it. I'm going to take it down from there soon. Um and then just start

10:02 publishing good settings because there's so many settings here to pick from. You know, there are all kinds of flat filters and then also trade exit conditions that get really dynamic. And so there's trillions of possible configurations. Now I could sit here you know and tune these you know one by one by one waiting for the back test report on trading. You can see trading views spinning up a new back test report because I changed one of the settings sitting here and tinkering with this for hours. This could take days or weeks to do manually to actually get good results and then you have to you know test on 40% of the data or and then and then show it the the testing data after you've done cuz you have you have out of sample data in sample data. It's just impossible to do this kind of thing manually. But, you know, the good thing is that signals swap.io does all of

10:48 these automatically and gives you the best settings. So, it's a very similar kind of approach here. Like I have my strategy here. It's telling me which parameters to pick from. I also have it here just on on the center of the screen. So, wolfback wavelength that's, you know, 99. So, if I went over to Trading View and I went on the this is the Cardano five minute chart cuz for whatever reason I was feeling extremely risky and bold and wanted to do the five-minute chart, but we actually got some fairly good results. Um you know it it does have a 25% win rate but it is a fiveinut chart and you know when it wins it it looks like it's doing you know not too bad um even though in testing data you know 200% in 3 years is actually not bad if if that's reliable like if I can actually trust that is that is pretty pretty awesome. So there's breakdowns of

11:33 other metrics here. Uh we have the out of sample data in sample data. This is just like trading view. So if you look at Trading View strategy report, these numbers line up perfectly. So you have a good idea of, you know, what it's going to look like on Trading View. Exact same logic uh was was built into this. So So that's the general idea. Um Signal Swap basically you sign up, you use the Signal Swap link uh for Bybit uh you know if you if you click this link it'll link to Bybit and if you use that link there it'll give you free access to the website right here. free access forever and then yeah premium you do get the back tests um but you know you get free access you can you can trade you get your web hooks uh there's there's full level encryption uh with rotating keys and really sophisticated system that we

12:20 have and obviously the higher tiers you know if people are really serious about back testing then that's built into the website I'm hammering in the back testing cuz I just I I just don't see any other website out there that's doing that so this is this website if you go to signal swap.io So, it's locked right now, but join the Trade Tactics Discord and then ping me if you want to get alpha testing and I'll just give you a free subscription and, you know, you could test out the website if too many people start coming over and and pinging me for access. I'm I'm probably not going to need that many alpha testers, but just for now. Uh, and then we'll roll out, you know, beta testing and get get people onto the website as as soon as we can. And then, yeah, in the in the Discord, I'll probably do like a full presentation whenever we we're launching the website, you know. As for the the main purpose of this video that the the

13:06 one tidbit of advice cuz I got a lot of questions in the last video. This is one of the most advanced methods um around. So yeah, signal swap gives you the back testing for you. But if you are looking to use claude or like claw code or open claw is really popular. I've seen zero claw. I've seen all these different uh versions of claw but so who knows which one uh will be available when you watch this video. But this method will work with all of those. And so I have a really good system prompt for this in Droid. I'm using Droid with Claude Opus 4.6 currently. Just if you're if you're watching later, we are on the 4.6 model right now. This is the newest model currently. And what Droid is programmed to do is to build elements of this strategy and then run it through my back

13:52 test engine that I showed you earlier. this back test engine that I have here which I'm not showing you know all the code but this is my back test engine just the homepage for it and so I can just give a simple prompt here to my Droid terminal this is Droid it's a wrapper for claude obus so it just plugs into claude directly and I'm just asking it to brainstorm four different exit signals so take profit amounts and then to test them and it's going to do this all for me completely automatically so the brilliant thing that AI is capable of is because I have the trading engine and the architecture for it. It's going to just use that and it's going to research different ideas for uh take profit levels or stop losses and then we're going to see if it actually improves the results and it's going to

14:38 optimize it for me. So, because it can optimize it for me and it can change the signals, the entry rules, it can configure all of those and it can add math or or change the math and then run it and reoptimize the parameters. you can tell me if there's any parameters in there that are actually good that are actually going to lead to robust results. Now, this is very similar to machine learning where the machine learning, you know, can, for example, create candlesticks. It could create fake trading data. And in order to do that, it might reward the machine if it gets, you know, uh, candlesticks that it generates that are somewhat realistic or it could penalize the machine if it gets candlesticks that are unrealistic. And we can do machine learning for essentially any almost any kind of statistical method or any kind of new

15:24 technology out there. So, you know, AI has been able to solve protein folding, for example. It's able to uh solve and build new AI chips, for example, new microchips. And so, what we're doing now is just using kind of this isn't technically machine learning because it's it's AI learning, but AI is is going to build it all for us. So, it's adding this all into the engine and then plugging it in to test it to see if it's going to work or not. Now, all I have to do is, you know, sit back. This might this whole process might take, you know, with Claude Opus, it can work up to like 3 hours. You could walk away and come back to your computer and it'll it'll finish like you can go to bed and wake up and then it'll be done. So what's really chill uh is that cloud code and these these models that you know through

16:11 the CLI interface that you're looking at right here, all the code that's spinning on the screen, these CLI interfaces, you know, they they used to work for like 5 minutes, but then they would just give up and stop. And I'm noticing that they're able to put in Cloud Opus 4.6 a lot more effort into cycling the deep amounts of effort and tokens until the job is really finished. So, it's able to check in and, you know, it will stop and ask you questions. If it does have any questions, if you're unclear with it, it will stop and then it'll do that for you. But, yeah, essentially here it is. It's spinning up four different new exit rules. You can see batches of four there. The each of these is a new rule. And then we're going to see if they're any good. And then all I have to do is come back. It'll run the trading engine and it'll give me the new results when it's all done. So that is on honestly

16:59 one of the most me brilliant methods and you know in the next video I have an even better method for you. Um this is one of the more advanced ones. If you don't have a whole trading engine don't worry just subscribe and wait for the next video. I promise you it's going to be really juicy. Something that I've been doing a lot with AI. And so for example this is the Sooiecoin. This was only available since 2023. So there isn't that much data but we have 50 trades here. This is the training data. And 29% draw down isn't, you know, the worst. It's not the best though either. But the testing data was only 16% draw down. So that's why I found this one a little bit interesting. These are some of the results that it was able to to find automatically for me. It launches these little dashboards for me. I come back to my screen and it gives me completely new trading rules and

17:46 sometimes a completely new strategy that has developed for me. And yeah, this has 118% net profit just since 2024. So, you know, these new fresh coins, they're pretty interesting to to train on. And I could trade on any coin or any equity, you know, gold. I can train this on like on on Forex, Nvidia, Tesla, any crypto, you know, uh and so that is the kind of brilliance of this way of of developing strategies that I think is going to become right now. This is bleeding edge. This is the new tech that nobody's really talking about. So, that's why I've built a lot of my videos around this lately that I wanted to share with you guys right now. Even though this website's in alpha testing, if you want

18:31 to become an alpha tester and help me out uh so that you can really make the most of the website, get the testing in that I desperately need right now. I have only a couple alpha testers so far. So, yeah, please come through to the Discord, send me a message. I'm highly responsive. Um if I'm not working, I might be away, but I definitely will get back to you if you're in there. And and you know, of course, in the Trey Tactics Discord, I have my bot settings here that I published, but I was tuning all of these myself with the Wolfpack Elite bot, but that's the problem. I was I was doing all these manually. And so that's why I build, you know, these automated methods for for building it. So yeah, when you're in the Discord, make sure you look for like the actual real me. There's fake liquid accounts that will try to message you and scam you. Do not fall for this. But also you can come

19:18 here and check the working scripts section. There are a lot of really active people here still super active. You know there's new strategies every week and you can come in and contribute. Uh you can download their open source code. All these are you know open source. You come in people are posting settings and charts and also you here here's the full scripts. They're all right here. So trade tactics discord free to join and you can come contribute. This is an open-source community. We love to help uh new people learn and grow. And so, hit the subscribe button, like the video, and of course, I have a really, really important video coming you don't want to miss out. So, please hit that subscribe button and the bell notification and I'll see you in that

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