Vollständiges Transkript von „Prepare! The UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to GOLD & SILVER – Alasdair Macleod“. Klicke auf einen Zeitstempel, um das Video an dieser Stelle zu öffnen. Du brauchst ein anderes Video? Nutze den YouTube-Transkript-Generator.
0:00 India has a long, long history of trying to deny its citizens the um opportunity to get out of rupees and get into gold and silver. Um the fact of the matter is that Indians on the street are a bit smarter than the than that government gives them credit for. They understand that the rupee is going down. It has always been the worst thing to hold uh in terms of savings. Uh the falling value of the rupee, I mean, I remember going to uh uh Bombay or Mumbai as it is now. Uh oh, it must have been in the late '60s. Uh and the value uh then in sterling, if I
0:46 remember correctly, there was something like 14 rupees to the pound. Um and uh you know, now we're looking at over 100. Uh now, sterling hasn't been uh you know, the if you like, the uh the best currency in the toolbox by any means. I mean, obviously, silver ran up probably too far, too quickly, and some sort of consolidation made sense. But, in terms of um actual dealing in silver, uh what you had was profit taking in the paper markets, but there was absolutely no selling uh or no material selling anyway in the uh physical market. And indeed, since silver peaked, there has been a consistent flow of silver
1:33 out of Western capital markets into China in particular, and also until recently India. Um and so, you know, the underlying um uh supply and demand situation, uh if anything, hasn't improved at all. There's been no shakeout of uh speculative uh uh positions. Uh and um it's just been an opportunity, if you like for uh the Chinese in particular, and also the Indians. Uh I'm sure we'll come to that one later. Uh uh to uh accumulate much-needed silver. And uh this demand comes from uh industry uh considerably uh more than it comes
2:19 from investors. Investors, as yet, have not really latched onto silver. There was obviously a little bit of speculative um accumulation, if you like, of paper silver uh as it ran up from uh the 50 level up to the high of about 120. >> The biggest warning sign appeared in the physical delivery market. After China tightened exports of rare earth materials, silver exports also quietly became more restricted. Within weeks, stress hit the London bullion market. Lease rates suddenly surged, signaling a scramble for available silver supplies. At the same time, COMEX futures data showed extremely low bullish positioning, meaning investors had not fully entered the trade yet. Industrial
3:05 users, however, all kept buying relentlessly. Solar manufacturers, electronics producers, and defense-related industries all require silver in large quantities. This creates a dangerous imbalance. Demand remains persistent while available supply becomes increasingly difficult to secure, especially outside Asia's growing commodity network. >> But that's not been material. And if you look at the open interest on COMEX, uh the open interest in silver actually dropped to the lowest levels we've seen for 20 years. What that tells us is there is a complete absence of uh bullish demand, if you like, uh within um within the futures market on COMEX.
3:52 Uh so, silver was rising despite that. And the real test, I think, came from Chinese policy uh back in last September when they restricted the exports of rare earths. And they obviously, it turns out, also began restricting the export of silver because within 2 or 3 weeks of the restrictions on rare earths, there was a delivery crisis on the LBMA. I think that was on the 9th of October. Lease rates soared to around about 40%. Now, ever since then, despite the fact that the price in both spot and futures markets has
4:39 dropped significantly, um there has been, you know, continual demand for physical silver. So, as far as industry is concerned in China and also India, they really need the silver. And they will, you know, fall over themselves to continue to get it. This eventually will have an impact back on silver because what we now see is, if you like, that we've got problems from the Iran war leading to a shortage of sulfuric acid. Now, sulfuric acid is a very, very important chemical when it comes to refining, particularly non-ferrous ores. >> Geopolitical tensions are now creating
5:25 another major threat to silver supply chains. Conflict across the Middle East has disrupted sulfuric acid exports, a chemical essential for processing non-ferrous ores where most silver is extracted. Countries like Chile and Mexico, two of the world's largest silver producers, are now dealing with shortages of this critical refining material. China has also reduced certain chemical exports to protect domestic industry. These disruptions are making mining operations more expensive and less efficient worldwide. Some analysts still estimate silver deficits near 80 million ounces annually, but others now believe the shortage could eventually exceed 300 million ounces if industrial demand continues accelerating.
6:12 >> And of course, most silver is extracted from non-ferrous ores. Uh the absence of um the supply from uh the gulf of sulfuric acid has been uh made worse by company countries like China deciding that they've got to restrict their exports as well just purely to protect themselves. This means that uh countries such as Chile and Mexico who are uh significant silver uh mining nations uh have have a shortage of sulfuric acid in in which to process and produce mined silver. So, there there are knock-on effects which are making the supply deficit in silver even worse than it has
6:57 been recently. And while the Silver Institute is looking at uh figures like a shortfall of about 80 million ounces, um there are others now who are looking at uh the figure uh hitting something like 300 million ounces. So, what we have with silver is a very very temporary shakeout, if you like, which um is the opportunity for the shorts in the paper markets to try and cover their positions, and that's what they're desperate to do. They're having difficulty doing it, however. So, I think the message to anyone who uh holds silver and is worried about the volatility, the answer is just grit your teeth and just stay with it or um use the opportunity to
7:43 acquire, uh, even more. I mean, that would certainly be my approach. I come at it really from, if you like, what might be described the fundamental point of view, um, rather than technical analysis. Yeah. But, um, certainly, uh, Mike has got a very good track record of getting these things right. And, uh, what he is saying rather, um, uh, rhymes or chimes with, um, uh, what I see just looking at the fundamental situation. >> Another powerful force is emerging from the currency markets. As global debt expands and trade tensions intensify, confidence in fiat currencies is weakening. Energy disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes are increasing inflation fears worldwide.
8:29 Historically, gold performs strongly during periods of monetary instability. Major banks have already started projecting significantly higher gold prices over the next year. If gold breaks into another major bull market, silver could attract a massive second wave of investors searching for a cheaper alternative. Unlike gold, silver remains relatively under-owned by the public. That creates the potential for an explosive squeeze if investment demand suddenly collides with already strained industrial supply. >> Uh, the other aspect which I haven't mentioned is that the purchasing power of the dollar undoubtedly is going to go down. Now, we can argue how much, but that the, uh, the war in the Gulf, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the
9:14 potential, uh, closure of the Red Sea by the Houthis, uh, in Yemen, um, and so on and so forth, uh, we have huge great problems ahead, and the price impact of all these changes has yet really to hit Western capital markets. Um, so, uh, when we see, uh, a fall in the purchasing power of currencies and particularly the dollar which is the main international transaction currency, then obviously the value of gold priced in dollars is going to rise. So again, we can see you know why it is if you like that um various banks, big banks who
10:01 have good relations with central banks around the world and I must emphasize that. They're now talking gold being considerably higher by the year end. Now, in my experience, if a bank says that gold is going to or they believe that gold will rise to say $6,000 by the year end, the reason they arrive at a figure like $6,000 is they're probably comfortable that it will go to considerably more than that. So what they want to do, but what they don't want to do if you like, is to appear to make rash statements. Um so you can see that um with gold going better, I mean you've then got silver in the position where
10:47 suddenly where there was almost no um investment demand, suddenly the public around the world and particularly in Asia say, "Hold on a minute. This is the cheap way into gold because we've missed gold. You know, we can afford silver." So um you can see that the squeeze on silver could be very, very intense and it squeezes of this nature which would justify a forecast of silver rising between 200 and and say 600%. So I can see from a fundamental point of view a forecast by uh, Mike Oliver uh, being
11:33 correct because of the underlying situation in the market. >> India now faces a difficult balancing act. For decades, Indian households have viewed gold and silver as protection against the long-term decline of the rupee, even as governments attempted to discourage precious metal ownership, demand from ordinary citizens never disappeared. Today, however, India's booming solar industry is competing directly with investors for silver supplies. Massive photovoltaic expansion projects require huge amounts of the metal. Companies tied to renewable energy development continue increasing purchases, while retail demand also remains strong. Authorities recently attempted to slow silver buying, but history suggests restrictions rarely
12:19 stop demand completely. Instead, shortages often push activity into unofficial markets, while pent-up demand continues building beneath the surface. >> India has a long, long history of trying to deny its citizens the um, opportunity to get out of rupees and get into gold and silver. Um, the fact of the matter is that Indians on the street are a bit smarter than the than they come give them credit for. They understand that the rupee is going down. It has always been the worst thing to hold uh, in terms of savings. Uh, the falling value of the rupee, I mean, I remember going to uh,
13:06 uh, Bombay or Mumbai as it is now. Uh, oh, it must have been in the late '60s. Uh, and the value uh, then in sterling, if I remember correctly, there was something like 14 rupees to the pound. Um, and uh, you know, now we're looking at over 100. Uh, now sterling hasn't been uh, you know, the if you like, the the best currency in the toolbox by any means, [laughter] but you can see you can see why it is that there is continual investment demand, if you like, from the Indian public. Now, in the past, because the Indian government, certainly post-Gandhi, have been very, very
13:51 Keynesian in their approach. Uh >> [clears throat] >> They view um the acquisition of gold and silver, if you like, in preference to their own currency as something outdated. Um You know, they talk about the gold standard being a you know, sort of barbaric relic and all the rest of it. And it's extremely inconvenient for you know, those trying to manage an economy to see that when there's a trade deficit or a deficit on the balance of payments, it's because people are importing gold and silver. So, they banned it for a long time. If I remember correctly um the the purchase of gold in in particular was was banned until
14:40 the restrictions were lifted, I think, in 1992. Um now, since then they have sort of, you know, given way and allowed imports almost under sufferance, let's face it. Then there's another problem. The other problem, if we're looking at silver in particular, is that of course, the photovoltaic cell business is something which is a wonderful business to get into. And the Indian government has encouraged industry to start manufacturing photovoltaic cells. And so, you've got big Indian corporations. I mean, Reliance Industries comes to mind. Who are building huge great solar farms and all the rest of it. >> Silver is no longer just a precious
15:26 metal investment. It has become a strategic industrial resource tied directly to technology, energy, and geopolitical competition. China appears determined to secure massive stockpiles while limiting access for rival economies. Meanwhile, the United States has officially recognized silver as a critical mineral necessary for future manufacturing and national security. This global competition is changing the structure of the market entirely. Investors watching short-term price volatility may miss the bigger story unfolding underneath. The real battle is over physical ownership, industrial control, and supply security. If current trends continue, silver could eventually experience one of the most dramatic commodity squeezes seen in
16:12 modern financial history. >> And already getting into the business. So, suddenly, you've got this clash between um you know, the the, uh, the PV, the photovoltaic industry, demanding silver. There is other industrial demands for silver as well. Um, and, uh, you know, unfortunately, uh, for the government, um, at the same time, this is beginning to clash with, uh, people trying to get out of the rupee and get into something which protects their savings. So, that is why, um, they've rather pathetically turned round and said to everybody, "Look, please stop buying silver for a year." What? >> [laughter]
16:57 >> So, that, I mean, basically, that's the history of it. Now, the the price effect um is, obviously, in the short term, smuggling uh will take off again. Of that, there is no doubt. You'll find that the value of silver, um, in India, uh, if you like, in the various souks and all the rest of it, bazaars, will rise significantly because of the shortage and the arbitrage will be there for smugglers to to profit from. So, I think that's the first thing. The second thing is that uh at some stage this is going to be obviously removed. It'll have to be removed. And in that case, what you will find is that um pent-up demand suddenly
17:43 starts hitting the silver market again. So, actually, the Indians have got themselves into a bit of a problem here. A lot of this is because China, um in its um if you like it's sort of cold war over commodities, over vital commodities with America, um has uh changed its policy towards exporting silver. I mean, until uh last year, until last September, basically what China was doing was uh suppressing the price uh in order to um keep control over its manufacturing costs. Uh and also in the past it's used it it's used uh price um management, if you like, in the markets in order to accumulate a very large hidden stockpile
18:31 of silver. Now, we know that. We don't know how big it is, but you can um you can take it from me that it will be extremely large. And then, of course, on the other hand, what we had was the US Geological uh Survey coming out and saying silver should be declared a critical mineral, which was followed up by the government saying, "Yes, silver is now a critical mineral and we better start accumulating it." So, China wasn't going to supply this critical mineral to America. It was certainly wasn't going to try to suppress the price just to allow America to acquire a stockpile. So, I mean, this does mean that um uh you know, India has got itself into a bit of a bind on this and I can't really
19:17 see that it's going to achieve anything by if you like trying to avoid evade market reality. So I'm afraid that's where we are. >> [music] [music]
