Vollständiges Transkript von „The Future According to the Economic Confidence Model“. Klicke auf einen Zeitstempel, um das Video an dieser Stelle zu öffnen. Du brauchst ein anderes Video? Nutze den YouTube-Transkript-Generator.
0:00 it's great to be here at the alternative to davos [Applause] [Laughter] the digital currency idea is ending the underground economy and i really want to show how these things are correlating hello i'm martin armstrong and i wanted to do this short video on the economic confidence model i'd like to start with basically saying that [Music] from the very beginning you have two forms of analysis one where someone comes up with
0:46 a theory then they go to do the research to try and prove it that tends to lead to more of a cherry picking type thing to support the theory that's already the pre-growing conclusion the other way to do research is you basically just happen to stumble upon something and then try to understand it many things have been developed that way i mean that was probably the primary difference between adam smith who didn't understand how the economy worked and went off to discover how it actually did as opposed to marx who
1:34 pretty much looked at the economy and said well i don't like the way it works and it functions against what i believe so he comes up with his theory about labor etc and profits and capitalism and he goes off to prove that his theory is correct so in school actually back in high school i found it contradictory because i would go to physics class and they would say nothing is random then i would go to economics class and they would say everything is random so we can manipulate it we can eliminate
2:19 uh recessions depressions uh and the government can can take care of us forever so the these were the two theories that were contradictory and it kind of really bothered me then what happened was um because i was my father was going to take us to europe uh when i was about 13 for the summer i went to earn my own money so i really got a part-time job in a bullion store so i knew what gold was worth uh was 35 an ounce back then
3:06 and then in history class the teacher one day brought in a movie uh called you know toasted new york [Applause] [Music] president grant is releasing unlimited gold from the united states treasury the gold corner is broken who's about the panic of 1869 and in there uh is a scene where uh the character jim fisk turns around uh with the paper tape on gold that was trading on the new york uh stock exchange at that time and turns around to his uh girlfriend
3:53 and says josie gold hit 162 dollars 162 and a half josie jim look josie 162 and a half i got him cornered i got all the gold arrays they've got to buy from me now at any price i named [Applause] now that really disrupted everything i thought and was being taught in economics and the idea was that everything was linear so inflation progressively would move etc and the economy grew steadily uh all of a sudden here we have uh a film that said gold was 162 dollars an ounce in 1869 and yet it was
4:40 35 today so first i thought basically it was just a movie and it was not correct they just made it up but it bothered me and i went down to the library and i pulled out the old microfilms and i looked and lo and behold there was a new york times quote in gold at 162 an ounce in the panic of 1869. so suddenly my linear idea of the world was completely wrong i then saw that something could be substantially higher and then decline
5:25 and also in the late 60s i watched real estate rise and then falls there it goes from a period where everybody wants it to to next year nobody wants anything uh you know the rise and fall of markets were was tremendous i mean i had earned some money my father told me to uh in 1966 he told me i should be investing uh more conservatively rather than fooling around with commodities and invest in a fidelity trend mutual fund uh so i did listen to my father and i
6:12 bought it uh around 54 hours or whatever it was and it it promptly fell to about seven dollars and i turned my father and i asked him is this the way conservative people make their money so everything i saw would go up to a boom and then a bust so this whole idea that the government could eliminate the boom and bust cycle was just absolute nonsense so i basically had always had a curiosity i would say uh and later on i was uh doing some research in the firestone
7:00 uh library princeton uh university and i came across an old article in the wall street journal from the panic of 1907 and in there was a list of packs so they covered from 1683 up to 1907 and here is basically the list so i took this from the wall street journal i simply [Music] added up the the period of time which was 224 years and i divided by the number of events which was 26. and i came up with an average of 8.615
7:48 years so i thought it was just an average i didn't really think of it as being some sort of definitive thing and i started looking historically and and trying to see if there was some sort of regularity to to the business cycle and the more i investigated the more i found it it actually was following this particular time series so it really became quite interesting because in reading all the newspapers uh at the time i would see that this thinking process also changed
8:35 and so i ended up coming up with what i would call the public versus private leave for example uh during the wave that peaked in 1929 i would read the newspapers and they would have a completely different view of interest rates if interest rates continued to rise they looked at it as being bullish and why because they said well it shows there's still a demand for money and the economy is expanding when the economy is contracting interest rates are declining which is actually correct
9:23 but what happened was after the great depression we ended up with keynesian economics and suddenly this idea that the government can manipulate the business cycle and eliminate everything and create this land of uh marxist utopia became very you know dominant and even paul volcker in the late 70s and um done a speech and he called it the rediscovery of the business cycle and in there he explained that indeed for that whole period of time that we had economics was saying this was the new theory new economics we can eliminate the
10:09 business cycle he stood up and said the business cycle has always won and that's why he called it rediscovery of the business cycle and we have a very interesting situation and that the thinking process changes for generations and some people say you know there's a generational shift and just to some degree perhaps that's correct so as i said in in the 20s if interest rates were rising they saw it as bullish when interest rates are declining they saw it as bearish under keynesian economics we're concerned about what is the government trying to do to us so if they raised interest rates that
10:55 meant that they wanted us to stop spending and if they lowered rates oh they wanted us to increase spending so the the entire relationship or our thinking process flips so what i named these as being public versus private in a private wave raising interest rates is bullish and indeed even if we look at the federal reserve was raising interest rates throughout the trump administration yet the stock market right you know would rally and they called it the trump rally so we have to get through these myths that
11:40 have often come up and what the other i would say detrimental analysis that we have to be careful of is that everybody tries to reduce whatever it is with single cause and effect and it's never a single cause and effect so like climate oh it's co2 and there too we have the climate you know change zealots but they've only gone back to the 1850s so oh the you know see uh must be the industrial revolution because the climate is warming but we were coming out of the little ice age in the late uh 1600s to early 1700s if you go back in time
12:28 you find that there were warming periods and cooling periods uh even in go back to roman times you find cicero complaining about pollution they were using wood to you know heat homes and things of that nature to the point that the first clean air act was actually put in place by the emperor justinian and 561 a.d because everyone burning wood also creates co2 and it also creates more pollution so you know we have to look at things more from a a total global perspective and what i've i've seen
13:14 is how the psychology changes between these waves of public to private there's more to it even than that and i would notice being a traitor that um trading you know any particular market towards the end of the day all of a sudden it would drop off would be a little mini crash uh and then that same pattern of rising during the day and then dropping for the clothes would then migrate to the weekly level and then to the monthly level so i began to see patterns in trading and that was very significant
14:01 in the sense that then i realized that time is very important but it's also fractal so what takes place on the daily level or patterns that then migrate to the uh weekly monthly quarterly and yearly level so it's what are we looking at we're looking at really not a particular instrument if it's the dow jones or gold or the euro we're looking at human activity and how we respond to news be bullish bearish we rush into markets we panic out of them and [Music] during the 87 crash
14:48 what was discovered by the brady commission uh that i was called into to provide you know a lot of this research that they immediately assumed that the market crashed because of computer trading and what they found is exactly the opposite that the computers all were predicting here comes a crash but nobody believed it so most of the fund managers they simply unplug their computers and then what happened when the market reaches a point what really makes a market crash is
15:34 something different it is not uh some giant short seller that comes in and pushes the market down every investigation since 1907 has begun with that theory never once have they ever found some giant short position that ever caused the crash instead what happens is the opposite everybody that's ever thought of buying is already bought you now run out of the energy to continue you know continue to rise so it's kind of like raising your hand yes we can all raise our hand but keep it there all of a sudden your arm gets very very tired you can't hold it up and it becomes so heavy that you have to
16:22 collapse when the stock market collapses what happens is simply that everybody that is bought has bought there isn't another sucker to come in to buy the next high and why do i say that because i was giving a lecture in in tokyo in 1987 and what i fanned out or i would say 1980 i was giving a lecture in tokyo after the 1989 crash and there was this guy that had bribed his way to get in because it was an institutional session and he came up and he apologized and he said i just had to
17:08 talk to you and i said what was so urgent and he said that he had bought the stock market actually the very day of the high at the end of 1989 and what i found interesting was is that his purchase was 50 million dollars it was the first time he ever in his life invested in stocks so now i've i actually met the guy that bought the high and i asked him what caused you to do that and he said brokers had called him for seven years and said look every january the market goes up five percent so he watched and watched and watched and so he finally became convinced he
17:54 bought it at the end of december expecting just to make five percent then what happens the market crashes he's sitting there with a 30 to 40 percent loss he doesn't sell because he's afraid to take the loss taking loss means he has to admit that he was wrong so it's very fascinating that a market will crash largely because you've run out of buying power then all the loans turn they try to sell there's nobody there to buy so you get these panic sell-offs where a market will just absolutely crash because there's no bid so we have to understand the human nature behind these things and
18:42 what is causing it so what i've seen is that everything is fractal and in looking at the business cycle i found that this 8.6 year wave builds up into waves of six of these to form 51.6 years and then six of those form 309.6 year cycles now you may say you know that sounds nice and what is it all about but effectively then you have six of those that that build up into these major cycles that
19:27 show when the civilizations rise and fall we're approaching one of these now in 2032 and what will happen is that all the forms of government that we know as today which they call democracies but they're not they're really republics uh and that will basically change and we'll end up with a new form of government uh the same thing at the last time was the peak in the roman empire and all the historians have basically agreed that it peaked with the reign of marcus aurelius and after that it was nothing but downhill but we can look at at
20:13 these things uh very detailed but what i've discovered was how accurate they were which was something i never anticipated this is the current 51.6 year wave and it concludes in 2032 but if we look at this wave why was it so why are the is this cycle so uh incredibly accurate i discovered something that was again i bumped into it in the middle of the night but 8.6 years happens to be
20:59 3141 days which is pi and taking these um waves back i have defined them all the way back into ancient history from all the way up so the dates don't change it's always uh mathematically back but this current wave which began in 1985.65 you had 31.1 years from that and we came to exactly the day that that trump was sworn in now
21:44 in studying these waves and what happens and how human society changes there's a lot involved in it which includes weather war climate changes i mean everything uh is included it's much like a i would say like a rain forest that one tiny species is the food supply for something else and that's in terms for something else again so um you take one species out and you create a ripple effect and this is why the business cycle functions the way it does it is far more complex and governments cannot control it they cannot manipulate it uh
22:33 despite uh all the times that they have tried even if they um former chairman of the federal reserve arthur burns who was there when the fed chairman arthur burns who was there for the fall of brenton woods in 1971 said the same thing that the business cycle always wins so what we have to look at here is there is an incredible level of accuracy and and the forecast that we made in 1985 that at that point in time
23:18 would be the first time that we would see and the potential for an independent president which became donald trump both republicans and democrats hated the guy but it was also um brexit we the computer had also came out and forecasted brexit would win uh and nigel farage came to our 2019 conference in rome and he basically said of course he had to come because we were the only ones that forecast that brexit would win and he called us the alternative to davos and the reason he called us the alternative that davos is davos is all
24:06 about manipulating society and controlling it um whereas the research that i've con bumped into really is all about how the business cycle functions and government uh comes and goes it you know it predicts the rise of all governments and this has been quite significant uh in in 1998 i had given a conference in london and i didn't realize but uh someone from the london financial times had had kind of snuck in
24:52 the back and i had stood up and said okay fine russia's going to collapse and i give it about 30 days and he ended up putting that on the front page of the second section of london ft and of course russia collapsed that was the long-term capital management debacle it was the first time the federal reserve had come in and do a bailout and so then people started saying oh well this model is is um influencing too many people um that's when the cia came in and then realized that this model could predict the rise and fall of countries and
25:38 i offered to run any studies that they wanted but they arrogantly said no they had to own it and i you know said sorry it's not for sale and i'm not about to go to washington to go build it in some bunker for them so what we have to understand here is that the accuracy of this is quite interesting the previous wave there is a also from the beginning of each of these 8.6 year waves uh [Music] is uh another pi target of you know you're going in there to 3.14 years right to the day this one
26:26 in 2010 is when grace applied for the loan from the imf and that started the whole euro crisis uh markets and the euro had peaked in in 2008 and that set off a real financial crisis and uh greece started dropping and then the traders looked at okay fine who's next then they went after spain and then france and italy etc so it was exactly to the day going back to the way before that all right again the pie target in that wave
27:12 uh came up and it happened to be exactly 9 11. so right again to that day something develops uh this is is quite interesting all the way back because uh i mean just as you know 911 had taken place on this pie target we find other events exactly the same i mean here on the pie target before was the erm crisis that's when you know george soros became famous by attacking the british pound and and the pound was forced out of the
27:57 erm and then and ireland was forced out of it the whole thing began to collapse but this is is quite fascinating uh the 1987 crash again it happened right to the day if we look at everything from going back to even the the previous wave which peaked in 1981 that was the high in interest rates um the the pi target there was the was basically the bottom in the bonds and we began to see a a strong rally in the bonds at that
28:43 stage at the bottom of that wave was the dollar had been pushed up so high because of the high interest rates that they then needed to devalue the dollar and that was the plaza accord when the governments banned together and said okay fine we're going to manipulate the dollar lower by 40 percent i was called in at that point in time and it becomes more of a dog and pony show that they had already pre-concluded they were going to manipulate the dollar down so they asked 35 people basically you
29:28 know for opinions or whatever and nobody suggested that uh they then stand up and and basically say oh we relied upon 35 of the world's experts in foreign exchange and this is what we're going to do but nobody agreed to that i wrote to reagan at that point in time and i said you know you do this you're going to create a crash in in two years the white house had to respond and i got a two-page letter back which was very nice but that was the 87 crash these people don't understand even how the economy functions so what we're looking at is that they had just sold a third of the national debt
30:14 to the japanese then you're telling them you're going to devalue it by 40 and and nobody in washington even does it cross their mind that gee maybe they might sell because they're going to lose money they don't understand how the economy works and politicians stand up and they only do whatever they think is necessary for their own personal career there's no long-term thinking on any of this so we have to understand what you know really takes place and if you go back even to the cycle before that uh on the pie uh target that's when ronald reagan entered the race
31:01 uh all these things are uh very important to to understand uh you go back even to the one coming off of of 1929 what happens on that pi target okay very simply that's when hitler comes to power all right and people don't quite understand but um what happens here is effectively the um keynes himself have put out a report a warning about the uh negative effects of the reparation payments on germany but
31:47 people wanted revenge and what they ended up doing was creating hitler because oppressing the people that much then you know somebody stands up and says hey this isn't fair and that's it you know he's in okay and uh we have to understand that every action does cause a reaction in ninth and because of the great depression what happens 1933 fdr comes to power hitler goes to power and so does mao you get political change with the business cycle you move it to an extreme in either direction and you will get your political change
32:32 you get the rise and fall of civilizations will always take place because people basically will vote according to what they see all right what they're affected on so we have to understand that all this is very very significant the economic confidence model i've put out a book on it but i've traced it back through every wave even into roman times all right and what comes out of this is an incredible regularity that we cannot defeat and instead of of constantly creating
33:19 uh these crises which we do create ourselves all right we have uh major major problems uh going forward why is is civilization going to change in 2032 most people don't even realize they think that they're just voting for a republican versus democrat and they're not there is some people call it the deep state but that's more of the bureaucracies there is an element that i call the neocons what are they they are people that are there and advise regardless if it's a democrat or if it's a republican
34:06 the two presidents that they were against was kennedy and trump why because both were against war and so you you can just look at uh you can even google it bill crystal was a very big uh neocon i knew bill i even spoke at one of our world economic conferences in the late 90s and i would say over the years she's become more of so far right that i call him basically a neocon and he was vehemently against trump why because trump wouldn't go and invade countries that he wanted to invade
34:53 if you look at what the neocons have done they basically did the iraq nonsense uh that there were never weapons of mass destruction you can google even the vietnam war um president johnson stood up and said for all he knew we were shooting at wales that night the vietnamese never attacked us you can just go on and on and on no war has ever been started on truth it's always been lies and propaganda so the neocons are simply people that um can't sleep at night because they they have to hate somebody and so they have advised
35:40 um regardless of who they are if it's a republican or a democrat they're there in the white house and they're the ones pulling the strings uh so you hear about bio labs all over the place in ukraine to on the borders of china the this is what these people do they're not interested in world peace uh they're interested really in world domination and that's you know they don't never stand for election they just simply get control of the immediate political apparatus and they push it so they're at this stage in the game pushing us towards uh world war three
36:26 and this is what part of 2032 is about after this there'll be a reassessment they're calling it they hope for the great reset for bretton woods three but i they're not going to win it's not going to be that that um that easy or i would say would never follow the plans that they have but cyclically this is where we're headed and things are becoming much more divided between now and 2032 the next 10 years is going to be living hell from a lot of things we see if you come out you say something that
37:13 they don't like you're canceled they no longer believe in free speech so all this is building to a monumental change in in the way systems function i mean the last time we had such a major uh collapse was monarchy was overthrown and that was the beginning of the american revolution all right this time it's going to be republics that are overthrown and we're going to go back to to a different form of government they're hoping more authoritarian i'm hoping it'll be more towards democracy but this is what uh we're looking at and
37:58 the economic confidence model is something that i stumbled upon it's accurate going back you can see what happens at each turning point they're not you know fudged that's it you can project them out for a thousand years and go back a thousand years and see what happened i i it is not based upon a predetermined philosophy or uh any sort of a theory uh as i said you know you have two ways of doing research one you come up with the theory and then you try to prove the theory correct the other is you look at
38:43 what's actually happening to understand how it functions this is what the economic confidence model has come from and it is something that will live on well after i'm ongoing and if we understand how the cycle works then we can live with the cycle and reduce the volatility but everything is included from climate change to um through basically wars disease uh all these things and uh you know climate change has been around for millions of years
39:29 uh the iron age was overthrown by the sea people who were basically invading from the north because it got cold up there so you just look at when the we've had ice ages and things of this nature and people move and so they all invaded and overthrew just about every iron age civilization except the egyptians so we have to understand these are things that are beyond our control we cannot manipulate the the the climate any more than we can manipulate the business cycle so we have we should understand it exists and as two former chairman martha burns and
40:14 paul volcker both admitted the business cycle always wins so i hope this gives an an idea of what i've spent most of my life trying to understand myself and i'm hoping to leave this behind so that other people will be able to understand the business cycle and perhaps we can improve society post 2032 so thank you very much and good luck
