Trump's 15% Tariffs Will Make Millionaires in 2026 (Here's How)

Kurze Zusammenfassung

Das Video fasst die jüngsten Entwicklungen in Bezug auf die von Präsident Trump verhängten Zölle zusammen und analysiert deren Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt, insbesondere im Bereich KI und Halbleiter. Es wird erläutert, dass der Oberste Gerichtshof einige von Trumps Zöllen aufgehoben hat, die auf dem International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) basierten, während andere, insbesondere solche, die sich auf nationale Sicherheitsaspekte und den AI- und Halbleitersektor beziehen, weiterhin in Kraft sind. Trump reagierte darauf mit neuen globalen Zöllen.

  • Der Oberste Gerichtshof hat einige von Trumps Zöllen aufgehoben, aber nicht alle.
  • Trump hat mit neuen Zöllen und Maßnahmen reagiert, insbesondere im Bereich KI und Halbleiter.
  • KI- und Halbleiterunternehmen werden in Gewinner und Verlierer unterteilt.

Einleitung

Das Video befasst sich mit den Auswirkungen der von Präsident Trump verhängten Zölle auf den Aktienmarkt. Es wird hervorgehoben, dass Verwirrung in Bezug auf diese Zölle Chancen für Investoren schaffen kann, insbesondere für diejenigen, die daten- und politikgesteuerte Entscheidungen treffen. Das Video gliedert sich in vier Teile: die Entscheidung des Obersten Gerichtshofs, die Bedeutung für Trumps Handelskrieg und KI-Strategie, gefährdete Unternehmen und potenzielle Gewinner.

Die Entscheidung des Obersten Gerichtshofs zu Trumps Zöllen

Vor etwa einem Jahr erklärte Präsident Trump unfaire Handelspraktiken zur nationalen Notlage und nutzte den International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), um Zölle zu erheben. Diese Maßnahmen führten zu Spannungen und einem starken Rückgang des Aktienmarktes. Der Oberste Gerichtshof urteilte jedoch, dass Trump seine Befugnisse überschritten habe, da der IEEPA es dem Präsidenten nicht erlaube, das gesamte Zollsystem neu zu gestalten. Dies führt zur Aufhebung der meisten von Trumps Zöllen, die auf dem IEEPA basieren, im Wert von über 130 Milliarden Dollar.

Trumps Reaktion und Fokus auf KI und Halbleiter

Trump betrachtet die Entscheidung des Obersten Gerichtshofs nicht als Ende seiner Strategie, sondern reagiert mit neuen Maßnahmen. Er kündigte einen neuen globalen Zoll von 10 % an, der später auf 15 % erhöht wurde, und zwar unter Berufung auf Abschnitt 122 des Handelsgesetzes von 1974. Gleichzeitig verlagerte seine Regierung den Fokus des Handelskriegs auf fortschrittliche Chips und KI-Hardware. So wurden beispielsweise 25-prozentige Zölle auf KI-Beschleuniger wie Nvidias H200s und AMDs MI325X erhoben, zusammen mit Exportkontrollen, die die Einnahmen aus China schmälern sollen. Darüber hinaus wurde ein Halbleiterabkommen mit Taiwan unterzeichnet, das zukünftige Zölle an Investitionen taiwanesischer Unternehmen in die US-Fertigung knüpft.

Auswirkungen der neuen Politik auf Unternehmen

Die neue Politik konzentriert sich auf den Ausbau der KI-Infrastruktur in den USA und in verbündeten Ländern durch Zölle, Exportkontrollen und Abkommen. Unternehmen, die auf Nachfrage aus China, geringe Margen oder generische Elektronik angewiesen sind, verlieren ihren alten Schutz und sind stärker dem Wettbewerb ausgesetzt. Der Handelskrieg entwickelt sich zu einem Filter, der KI- und Halbleiterunternehmen in Gewinner und Verlierer einteilt.

Unternehmen, die am stärksten gefährdet sind

Am stärksten gefährdet sind US-amerikanische Halbleiter- und Hardwareunternehmen mit großem China-Exposure, die nicht als nationale Sicherheitsgüter gelten. Dazu gehören Qualcomm (QCOM), Marvell (MRVL), Western Digital (WDC) und SanDisk (SNDK), die zwischen 25 und 40 % ihrer Einnahmen aus China beziehen. Auch Unternehmen mit geringen Margen, die von breiten Zöllen profitiert haben, wie Foxconn und Quanta, sind betroffen.

Unternehmen, die am meisten profitieren sollten

Die größten langfristigen Investitionsmöglichkeiten bieten sich bei KI-Beschleunigern und kundenspezifischen Chips, die als nationale Sicherheitsgüter behandelt werden. Nvidia und AMD profitieren von den 25-prozentigen Zöllen und Exportkontrollen. Auch das Ökosystem für Speicher und fortschrittliche Verpackungen profitiert, insbesondere Unternehmen wie Micron (USA) sowie SK Hynix und Samsung (Südkorea). Halbleiterhersteller wie TSMC und Intel, die ihre US-Produktion ausbauen, sowie Ausrüster wie ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research und KLA profitieren ebenfalls.

Wie der Sprecher diese Informationen für sein Portfolio nutzt

Der Sprecher nutzt die Schlagzeilen über Zölle als Einstiegspunkte und kauft aggressiv in den AI-Sektor ein, wenn die Kurse fallen. Er achtet auf Datenpunkte wie den CNN Fear and Greed Index und den Volatilitätsindex des S&P 500, um seine Entscheidungen zu treffen. Er betont, dass sich die Situation ständig weiterentwickelt und er die Entwicklungen weiterhin verfolgen wird.

Zusammenfassung und Ausblick

Der Oberste Gerichtshof hat Trumps Zölle auf der Grundlage des IEEPA aufgehoben, aber Trump hat mit neuen globalen Zöllen und einem Fokus auf KI und Halbleiter reagiert. Dies führt zu einem verstärkten Druck auf fortschrittliche KI-Chips und ihre Lieferketten, um die Produktion in die USA zu verlagern. Unternehmen im AI-Sektor, insbesondere solche, die in GPUs, Speicher und fortschrittliche Verpackungen investieren, bieten gute Möglichkeiten, um erfolgreich zu sein.

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0:00 About a year ago, President Trump's tariffs triggered the biggest stock market crash since the pandemic. And the bigger the crash, the bigger the opportunity. Well, those same tariffs just got struck down by the Supreme Court, marking a massive shift in trade policy that will make some investors rich and destroy the portfolios of anyone who's not paying attention. So, in this video, I'll walk you through what's actually happening with Trump's tariffs, what almost all the headlines are missing, and which stocks are set to win big as a result. Your time is valuable, so let's get right into it. First things first, if you feel confused about Trump's tariffs and his trade war, you are not alone. Every major media outlet is asking way more questions than they're answering right now. But confusion can create huge opportunities for investors, especially the ones who

0:46 slow down, figure out what actually changed and make moves based on data and policy instead of headlines and hot takes. That's exactly what this video will help you do. And I'll break everything down into four parts. First, what the Supreme Court just killed and what it didn't. Second, what this means for Trump's trade war in general and his AI strategy specifically. Third, which companies are most at risk after this decision. and of course which stocks are set to win big as a result. There's a ton to talk about, so let's dive right into the Supreme Court's decision around Trump's tariffs. About a year ago, President Trump declared that unfair foreign trade practices were a national emergency. And he used a law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or the EA, to slap a 10% tariff on

1:31 all countries, plus much higher reciprocal tariffs on countries where the US has a big trade deficit. Those reciprocal tariffs quickly turned into serious international trade tensions that triggered the single steepest stock market drop since the COVID crash with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ dropping by about 20% in a matter of weeks. I actually made seven separate videos covering Trump's different rounds of tariffs, why I thought they wouldn't last, and the big buying opportunities I thought they presented. Those videos got over 3 million views combined, and many of the stocks in them have more than doubled in price in the months that followed. I'm not trying to show off here. I'm trying to show you the direct connection between paying attention to tariffs and getting rich without getting

2:16 lucky. Fast forward to this past week in a six-to3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump overstepped his authority under the EPA. Basically saying this emergency law lets the president regulate imports during a real national emergency, but it doesn't give him the power to redesign the whole tariff system or run a permanent global tariff program all by himself. That means most of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, which hit more than a 100 countries, are now being unwound. Importers and lawyers are already scrambling to figure out how to handle more than $130 billion that were collected under these tariffs now that the Supreme Court says they weren't authorized in the first place. But here's what almost all the headlines have been missing. This ruling only touches tariffs relying on that

3:02 Emergency Economic Powers Act. It didn't strike down Trump's separate national security tariffs under section 232, which includes the new 25% tariffs and compliance rules on specific semiconductor equipment and AI chips that took effect in January. Those more targeted sector specific tariffs are still in place, and they're the real lynch pin in Trump's ongoing trade war, especially for AI and semiconductor stocks. But here's where things get really interesting. Trump isn't treating the Supreme Court loss like the end of his overall strategy. He's treating it like a little speed bump and reaching for different weapons altogether. Within hours of the ruling, President Trump went on camera, called the court deeply disappointing, and announced a brand new 10% global tariff using a different law,

3:49 section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which lets him impose up to a 15% baseline tariff for a limited period without congressional approval. He also specifically said that all tariffs imposed under other laws like the section 232 national security tariffs I just mentioned will remain in full force and effect. Quick update as I'm recording this video. President Trump just raised his 10% global tariff all the way to 15%. Which is the maximum allowed under the trade act that he's using to enact it. At the same time, his team has been quietly shifting the trade war towards advanced chips and AI hardware. For example, the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on more advanced AI accelerators like Nvidia's H200s and AMD's MI325X

4:36 and paired that with new export controls that effectively take a share of chip revenues from China. All that is completely outside the Emergency Economic Powers Act. So, the Supreme Court ruling doesn't affect these things at all. The White House also signed a semiconductor deal with Taiwan that ties future tariffs directly to how much Taiwanese companies invest in US manufacturing. Chip makers that build fabs in America can import up to 2.5 times their planned US capacity without tariffs while the plants are being built and about 1.5 times that capacity once they're up and running. Funny enough, if this policy holds, I think it could make Taiwanese chip makers overpromise on their planned capacity and take more time to complete their US fabs. That way, they maximize the number of high-v value chips that they can ship without

5:22 paying those tariffs. But either way, the era of blanket emergency style reciprocal tariffs is coming to an end. But the era of targeted AI and semiconductor tariffs is just getting started, and that's where the real market winners and losers start to be more clear. Speaking of winners and losers, a new study shows that US workers who use AI everyday earn 40% more than those who don't. That means AI is no longer optional. It's an advantage that you either have or others have over you. That's where Outskll comes in, the sponsor of this video. Outskll is the world's first AI focused education platform, and they're hosting a live 2-day training to take you from beginner to advanced AI professional this coming Saturday and Sunday. and they're giving the first 1,000 people who sign up with

6:08 my link a free seed. Whether you work in tech or sales, marketing, or HR, you'll learn how to use AI agents, create automated workflows, and connect them to the software and spreadsheets you already use every day. This is a great way to level up your AI knowledge, get a serious competitive advantage, and understand the science behind the stocks. Over 10 million people all over the world have already participated, and the slots for this one are filling up faster than ever. So, make sure to register for your free seat with my link below today. All right. So, under the old policy that was just struck down, almost every product from almost every country got hit with some version of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. And the higher the US trade deficit with the country, the higher the tariffs that country faced. With this new setup, the

6:55 extreme deficit-based charges are being rolled back. and the extra pressure is now being concentrated on a narrow set of high-end chips, tools, and supply chains that Washington is treating as national security assets. There are two big reasons this matters to investors. First, for anything tied to advanced AI infrastructure like GPUs and custom accelerators, high bandwidth memory, advanced packaging, leading edge foundaries and the machines inside them, US policy is now focused on pulling more of that capacity on shore or into friendly countries even harder than it was before by using tariffs, export controls, and targeted deals with allies like Taiwan. And second, any business relying on demand from China, low margin commodity hardware, or generic electronics that foreign countries can

7:41 easily undercut is losing their old blanket tariff protections, making them much more exposed to new retalatory tariffs and brutal price competition. The overall takeaway for investors is that Trump's trade war is moving from tariffs on everything to a filter that specifically separates AI and semiconductor companies into two buckets. those that benefit from these new policies and the ones at risk because of them. So, let's talk about that next, starting with which companies are most at risk. And if you feel I've earned it, consider hitting the like button and subscribing to the channel. That really helps me out and it lets me know to make more content like this. Thanks. Now, let's talk about which companies these policies hurt the most. First, any US-listed semiconductor or hardware companies with outsized China

8:27 exposure that aren't treated as national security assets under these new policies. Companies like Qualcomm, ticker symbol QCOM, Marll, MRVL, Western Digital, WDC, and SanDisk, SNDK, could have anywhere from 25 to 40% of their revenues effectively tied to Chinese OEMs or Chinacentric supply chains. Just to be clear, I'm not saying these are bad businesses, but they are more vulnerable to new Chinese trade policies, customer reshoring inside China, and aggressive competition from Chinese chip and hardware vendors if tensions continue to escalate. Second, low margin commodity hardware businesses that were benefiting from broad tariff shelters. Think about the Quantas and Foxcons of the world. Foxcon

9:13 manufactures Apple's iPhones and iPads, Microsoft's Xbox consoles, Amazon's Kindle devices, and even AI server equipment for Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, all on 2 to 4% margins. And now those same items are losing their broad tariff protections, which impacts the supply chains of every tech company and product I just mentioned. So, if a company's competitive edge depends on demand from China, manufacturing in China, or other low-cost nations, this version of President Trump's trade war is an even tougher environment than the one that just got overturned. Now, let's talk about the companies that should benefit the most from the next phase of this AI trade war, and the biggest long-term investing opportunities as a result. First up are the AI accelerators and custom chips the Trump

9:59 administration is treating as national security assets. Nvidia and AMD are front and center here since the 25% tariff under section 232 literally calls out chips like Nvidia's H200 and AMD's MI325X. The export control rules on these chips are designed to limit sales to China while keeping US companies and US allies well supplied. That combination of strict limits on China and massive AI spending in the US is exactly the kind of setup that lets the strongest chip vendors keep demand high without having to slash prices. Second would be the memory and advanced packaging ecosystem around those same chips. High bandwidth memory is already in short supply and the section 232 actions plus the Taiwan deal are pushing more of that memory and

10:46 packaging capacity into US and allied fabs instead of China. That's a clear tailwind for companies like Micron in the US as well as SKH Highix and Samsung in South Korea since these companies make the memory that AI chips can't run without. Third are the semiconductor foundaries and equipment makers willing to make more in the US. Chip manufacturers like TSMC and Intel are being subsidized to expand their US production with tariff rules that get more generous the more they invest here. And equipment vendors like ASML, Applied Materials, Lamb Research, and KLA also benefit from these buildouts because every new advanced manufacturing line is filled with their tools and machines. All right, so here's how I'm actually using all this information for my own

11:32 portfolio. And as always, this isn't financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing. Just like last year, I'm treating tariff headlines as entry points, not as reasons to panic. While investors get more fearful around Trump's new announcements, court rulings, or responses from China, and all the AI and semiconductor stocks I cover sell off with the rest of the market, that's when I dollar cost average in even more aggressively into every layer of the AI stack from Nvidia and Micron to TSMC and ASML. I'm also paying close attention to the important data points that I always talk about during drawdowns like CNN's fear and greed index and the S&P 500's volatility index. If volatility and fear in the market spike at the same time, that's my

12:17 signal to get more greedy. If volatility stays low and greed stays high, I'll wait for the next headline. And there will be a next headline. Remember, this is an evolving story. President Trump has already shown that he's willing to use one legal tool after another to pressure his trading partners. The US Congress and other countries are still responding to this latest decision, as well as Trump increasing his new global tariff from 10 to 15%. So, I'll keep tracking the changes to these tariffs and trade policies so I can keep you updated on what they mean for AI and semiconductor stocks. But hopefully this video helped you understand what happened so far. The Supreme Court just overturned Trump's reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the ones that hit

13:03 more than 100 countries and helped trigger a 20% drop in the market last year. President Trump immediately fired back with a temporary 10% global tariff under a different law, section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. Then just one day later, he increased that global tariff to 15%, which is the maximum allowed under that law. while keeping all the other tariffs and export controls fully in place. That includes the section 232 national security tariffs and the China focused export controls we walked through in this video. Put together, that means there's even more pressure on advanced AI chips and their supply chains, which Washington DC is treating as national security assets to move more production to the US, while blanket

13:48 protections for low margin hardware companies and China dependent revenue streams are starting to go away. All of these changes make the core AI stack, including GPUs and custom accelerators, high bandwidth memory and advanced packaging, and the company's moving fabs, machines, and tools to the US, a great way to get rich without getting lucky. And if you want to see what else I'm investing in to get rich without getting lucky, check out this video next. Either way, thanks for watching, and until next time, this is Tickerol U. My name is Alex, reminding you that the best investment you can make is in you.

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