Brief Summary
This video analyses the military capabilities of China in comparison to the combined forces of the US and Japan, particularly in the context of a potential conflict in the East China Sea. It suggests that despite China's advancements and assertive rhetoric, significant vulnerabilities exist in its military technology, training, command structure, and the psychological readiness of its troops.
- J20 fighter jets have limitations in situational awareness and are easily detectable by infrared surveillance.
- Chinese submarines are easily tracked due to advanced sonar technology employed by Japan and the US.
- Type 055 destroyers suffer from unreliable engines and potential corruption in component sourcing.
- The Rocket Force faces challenges with precision strikes due to a lack of high-quality microchips.
- The command system is centralised, leading to potential delays and hesitation in critical moments.
- The "one-child" policy has resulted in a military force that may be psychologically unprepared for high casualty rates.
J20's Vulnerable Moment
Despite being portrayed as an unbeatable stealth fighter in Chinese messaging, the J20 has limitations. It struggles with short range and situational awareness. Upgrades with the WS15 engine increase thrust but also generate significant heat, making the J20 a high-contrast heat source detectable by US early warning satellites and Japanese infrared sensors. The J20 also faces challenges due to China's limited airborne early warning and refuelling aircraft, forcing pilots to rely on potentially delayed and noisy ground-transmitted data.
Cat and Mouse Game of Submarines
China's vision of its nuclear submarines silently slipping into the Pacific is undermined by the reality of the East China Sea, which is heavily monitored by a fixed underwater sonar network installed by Japan. These sensors can detect propeller noise and mechanical sounds from Chinese submarines. Japanese P1 maritime patrol aircraft drop sonar buoys, and quiet Japanese submarines can lie in wait, making it difficult for Chinese submarines to evade detection and targeting.
Giant with a Weak Heart
China's Type 055 destroyers, while large and powerful, suffer from unreliable QC280 engines derived from Soviet-era industrial gas turbine technology. These engines have low thermal efficiency, high vibration, and significant noise. Under demanding combat manoeuvres, these weaknesses are magnified, potentially leading to turbine faults, radar instability, and engine shutdowns. Corruption within the military adds further uncertainty, with vital components potentially replaced by cheaper substitutes. In contrast, Japanese destroyers use mature propulsion systems and are deeply integrated into the US Aegis network.
The Missile Illusion
Despite the slogan "Dongfong Express, mission guaranteed," China's Rocket Force faces questions about its real capabilities. Modern precision strikes depend on high-quality gyroscopes, reliable microchips, and proven guidance algorithms. The US cutoff of advanced chips has impacted the accuracy of Chinese missiles, especially in complex electromagnetic environments. While Chinese missiles may hit fixed targets with meter-level accuracy in controlled tests, their effectiveness against fast-moving naval targets in a real conflict is less certain due to the layered missile defence systems operated by the US and Japan.
Digital Coffin of the Electromagnetic Spectrum
China's J16D electronic warfare aircraft is considered an entry-level platform compared to the US-Japan system. The US Navy's Boeing EA18G Growler carries advanced jamming pods that analyse and disrupt enemy radars and communications. This could lead to scenarios where Chinese naval formations experience radar screens filled with static, loss of communication, and drone data link collapses. Japan's long history of operating electronic warfare aircraft has allowed it to catalog the signatures of Chinese radars, enabling customized jamming signals that render them unusable.
Tug-of-War Between Political Officers and Commanders
China's centralised command system, where political officers hold veto power over major decisions, poses a significant weakness. This can lead to hesitation and delays in critical moments, such as a Type 055 destroyer losing contact with higher command and needing to launch air defence missiles. The system's focus on preventing internal threats stretches the chain of command and spreads decision-making, making officers unwilling to accept personal responsibility for high-stake decisions.
Breaking Point of One Child Military
The psychological readiness of China's military, largely composed of only children, is a concern. Raised in a secure environment and not prepared for the possibility of dying at sea, these soldiers may be more sensitive to casualties. In contrast, Japan's self-defence forces have a long-established non-commissioned officer corps and a professional military culture, while the US military is experienced in real combat environments. High casualties could severely damage China's military morale and trigger an emotional shock wave through Chinese society, leading to hesitation and risk avoidance among frontline troops.
Conclusion: Ruins After the Illusion Breaks
China's forceful rhetoric and claims of surpassing the West do not hold up against the integrated US-Japan combat network. Many of China's trump cards become liabilities, and claims of technological breakthroughs are difficult to sustain without equivalent advances in engines, materials science, and electronics. The Chinese military's focus on internal political struggles and scripted exercises contrasts with the US and Japanese forces' constant refinement of procedures and closing of gaps. In a real conflict, China's fleet and air force could be overwhelmed before commanders resolve basic questions of authority, potentially leading to the collapse of the "strong military dream" in the East China Sea.
