Brief Summary
This video discusses the "Trump effect" on global diplomacy, focusing on trade negotiations, India-China relations, and the future of multilateral organisations like BRICS and Quad. It examines how countries are navigating Trump's transactional diplomacy and the implications for the global order.
- Trump's transactional diplomacy and its impact on global trade and relations.
- The recalibration of India-China relations amidst border disputes and strategic tensions.
- The challenges and future of multilateral organisations like Quad and BRICS in the face of Trump's policies and national self-interest.
Trump's Transactional Diplomacy
The discussion begins with an overview of Donald Trump's transactional diplomacy and its global impact, from the EU to India, Thailand, and Cambodia. Trump's approach of using trade to settle disputes is highlighted, including his claims of resolving the India-Pakistan conflict through trade. The recent trade deal between the US and the EU is examined, with conflicting views on whether it's a win-win situation or if the US has gained more.
Navigating Trump's Unpredictability
The challenge for the rest of the world is how to continue to placate Mr. Trump and ensure predictability in relationships with his administration, which is known for its volatility. While Trump's tariff-based negotiating strategy seems to be paying off in the short term, countries like Japan and EU seek stable political and strategic relationships with the US, where trade is just one aspect. Trump's need for validation is also discussed, reflecting a shift in US power and influence on the global stage. Countries are making peace with his style of diplomacy, focusing on damage control and moving forward.
India-China Relations
Positive signals indicate improving India-China relations, with cautious optimism prevailing. Multiple senior-level engagements are expected, including a potential visit by Prime Minister Modi to China for the SCO summit. The change in atmospherics is evident, with progress on visa issues and the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra. Both countries are recalibrating their ties in the era of Trump, with India emphasising the need to restore the status quo along the border before moving forward on other aspects of the relationship. Despite economic progress, strategic tensions remain due to China's close ties with Pakistan and its use of platforms like the SCO for its strategic agenda.
Balancing Quad and SCO
India faces the challenge of balancing its relations with the US and China, especially within platforms like Quad and SCO. China uses these platforms for its strategic agenda, coordinating with Pakistan. India needs to strategically frame its response to China within these platforms. A potential reset in China-US relations could ease the pressure on India. Competition between India and China is inherent, and India needs to build deterrence to prevent China from using military leverage and create other avenues of influence.
The Future of Quad
The upcoming Quad leader summit in India is a critical moment for the group's evolution, especially with Trump's potential return to power and his focus on national self-interest. The long-term future of Quad is not in doubt, but the challenge lies in navigating Trump's eccentricities over the next few years. India needs to put out an agenda that is actionable in the short term and sustainable in the long term, despite Trump's preference for bilateral outcomes and transactional deals.
BRICS and India's Gains
India's participation in the BRICS summit allowed it to rethink its engagement with Latin America and South America, boosting the India-Brazil relationship. BRICS serves as a platform to amplify the voice of the global south, attracting interest from many countries. The challenge is whether BRICS can maintain its original intent of challenging the global economic order and giving greater voice to emerging economies. Despite Trump's threats of sanctions against BRICS economies, each member is pursuing separate bilateral engagements with the US. BRICS is becoming a platform to amplify the voice of the global south rather than a geopolitically cohesive unit. Countries are looking beyond these platforms to bilateral engagements with the US, reflecting the current emphasis on national self-interest.
The Future of American Power
The essential question is the future of American power and purpose beyond Trump. This question influences the global order, especially with the rise of other powers. The current times are marked by a sharper emphasis on national self-interest and skepticism about multilateral cooperation.
