Brief Summary
Mike Swartz discusses the market's reaction to the government shutdown, recent trading activity, and potential strategies for the day. He touches on technical analysis, economic data, and the importance of patience in trading. He also conducts a giveaway of a Take Profit Trader account, navigating some initial confusion with the winners.
- Market reaction to government shutdown is discussed.
- Technical analysis and trading strategies are shared.
- A Take Profit Trader account giveaway is conducted.
Market Overview and Trading Analysis
The government is shut down, and while markets initially dipped, they've since recovered. The Nikkai was down overnight, but the DAX and CAC are up. Gold is hitting new all-time highs. The market experienced a sell-off in London but recovered by morning. A potential double top pattern on the four-hour chart was validated but is currently being challenged.
Discord and Trading Plans
Mike Swartz discusses the possibility of creating a Discord server for his community, but expresses concerns about his ability to actively participate and manage it. He clarifies that if he were to create one, it would be free. He then outlines his trading plan for the day, noting that the market is down 102 points and is in an upper-level consolidation on the four-hour charts. He questions whether the market will retest the lows or continue upwards.
Government Shutdown and Economic Data
The government shutdown conveniently coincides with the release of important economic data, such as weekly unemployment claims and non-farm employment numbers, which will now be delayed. The CPI report may also be affected. This shutdown could mask the true state of inflation and job numbers. He notes a bear trap from the previous night and discusses retracement strategies after large candles.
Trading Performance and Market Games
Mike reflects on his recent trading performance, describing it as horrible premarket. He recalls a previous government shutdown where the market rallied significantly and considers whether a similar pattern will emerge this time, or if the market will move in the opposite direction. He mentions that prop firm sales are ending and expresses a desire for a 10% correction before a rally to all-time highs.
Market Indicators and Trading Strategy
Mike notes that Bitcoin is rising, while Tesla, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are down in pre-market trading. He had a successful night trading with a short-side bias, surpassing his $1,000 mark. He discusses a potential trade targeting 6679 on the ES but decided against leaving a runner on overnight. He mentions waiting for Apex sales and the upcoming ADP jobs data.
ADP Data and Market Reaction
The ADP numbers are released, showing a negative print of -32,000, which is described as horrible. This leads to speculation about whether the government shutdown was timed to coincide with bad economic news. Despite the negative jobs number, the market is expected to rally, as the Fed may have to cut rates due to the slowing labour market.
Giveaway Details and VIX Analysis
Mike explains the rules for joining the giveaway, which involves being a top fan, signing up for the email list, and entering the correct YouTube username. He recounts a past scam related to cash giveaways and emphasizes the importance of verifying the winner's identity. He also notes a big gap up in the VIX (Volatility Index) overnight, which has since come down.
Apex Accounts and Trading Frustrations
Mike expresses his frustration about the government shutdown preventing him from using his Apex accounts to trade on NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) and CPI (Consumer Price Index) data releases. He discusses his past experiences with Apex payouts, including a denied payout and a subsequent blown account due to trading with excessive risk. He acknowledges that he has been chasing the markets and not focusing on A+ setups.
Trading Psychology and Market Analysis
Mike emphasises the importance of trading the chart and what you see, not what you think. He discusses the high leverage available with Apex and his desire to use his Apex accounts for news trading. He plans to trade some of the accounts normally, aiming for A+ setups and being more patient. He acknowledges his recent struggles with trading psychology, particularly chasing losses.
Market Liquidity and Trading Tools
Mike identifies liquidity levels on the NASDAQ and ES, and mentions a video he's releasing on trading techniques with good reward-to-risk ratios. He discusses Take Profit Trader accounts, comparing their costs and features to Apex. He explains the Trade of 8 data connection and mentions a copier tool with a new feature to resolve ghost orders, recommending viewers check out a video he made on it.
Patience and Market Commentary
Mike reiterates his intention to practice patience and wait for specific conditions before trading, such as hitting liquidity levels or overbought conditions. He acknowledges the horrible ADP numbers and anticipates potential rate cuts. He mentions gold being off its highs and discusses the possibility of aggressive rate cutting campaigns, which historically haven't been a good sign.
Trading Strategy and Market Levels
Mike is waiting for the market to reach 24,800 or become overbought before making a move. He explains how static drawdowns work on Apex accounts. He shares his plan to focus on overbought and oversold conditions, as well as returns to the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price). He also mentions key levels on the SPY, noting it's near all-time highs, and discusses potential double top patterns and high volume nodes.
Market Analysis and Trading Plan
Mike reviews key market levels, including minus development areas on the ES and NASDAQ. He plans to look for regressions back towards the VWAP and play overbought/oversold areas. He notes the average range for the NASDAQ and identifies potential targets based on volume profiles. He mentions a big prop trading announcement coming on October 6th and expresses curiosity about Apex's new programs.
Pre-Market Trading and Market Open
Mike discusses his pre-market trading, aiming for a one-minute trade at the market open. He reviews mark on open orders, noting a significant sell-side imbalance. He expresses concern about a potential bear flag and the importance of avoiding landmines in the market due to upcoming speeches and data releases. He emphasizes the need for 250 likes to proceed with the Take Profit Trader account giveaway.
Initial Market Moves and Trading Decisions
The market opens, and Mike observes the initial moves, noting a lack of expected volatility. He hesitates on a potential trade, missing an opportunity for five points. He discusses minus development areas and a strong ripping candle, leading to a losing trade. He attempts another trade within the minus development area, playing off stacked imbalances.
Micro Trades and Market Analysis
Mike initiates micro positions, anticipating a move down towards 700. He notes the potential for new 401k money entering the markets and the likelihood of the Fed lowering rates due to bad jobs data. He observes the ES pushing towards the overnight high and considers a swing trade. He also points out a nine count on the one-minute chart for the ES.
Market Commentary and News Events
Mike discusses the potential for a large candle to signal the end of a move, referencing a previous pattern. He notes that the NASDAQ has failed to go above its opening price and that the Russell has filled its gap. He mentions the fear and greed index moving down and the possibility of a credit rating downgrade due to the government shutdown. He also highlights upcoming news events and speeches.
Trading Decisions and Market Observations
Mike discusses his trading decisions, including exiting a micro trade and considering a short position. He notes liquidity at 650 and the potential for the NASDAQ to reach that level. He emphasizes the importance of patience and avoiding chasing the market. He also mentions a MACD indicator plotted off volume and expresses interest in learning more about it.
Market Commentary and Trading Strategy
Mike discusses his trading strategy, focusing on volume profile levels and playing off the lack of liquidity. He mentions a specific trade he uses in Asia, which he cannot share due to its sensitivity to liquidity. He notes that Johnson is speaking and blaming Democrats for the shutdown, while Democrats are expected to blame Republicans later. He also highlights the importance of not chasing trades and waiting for better opportunities.
Market Analysis and Trading Decisions
Mike discusses the market's tendency to rally regardless of news, and the importance of following the money to understand market movements. He notes that the NASDAQ is approaching its opening price and expresses a desire to short the market if it becomes overbought. He also mentions a nine count setup and the potential for a sell-side trade.
Trading Adjustments and Market Observations
Mike discusses his trading adjustments, including closing a trade and considering a new position. He notes the market's difficulty in breaking below a swing high and the potential for higher prices. He also mentions a liquidity level at 24,900 on the NASDAQ. He expresses frustration with his chart freezing and the resulting unintended trade.
Giveaway Setup and Duck Race
Mike prepares for the Take Profit Trader account giveaway, setting up the duck race and explaining the rules. He screenshots the top three fans to guarantee them a spot in the race. He emphasizes the importance of being signed up to the email list and having the email confirmed. He then releases the key phrase for entering the duck race.
Duck Race and Initial Results
Mike initiates the duck race, announcing the contestants and their positions. He provides commentary on the race's progress, highlighting the leaders and potential contenders. He notes the exchange is in number one almost the whole race.
Duck Race Winner and Verification
The duck race concludes, and Mike announces Miranda as the winner. However, he encounters difficulty verifying Miranda's email address, leading to a brief moment of uncertainty. After further investigation, he confirms Miranda's eligibility and announces her as the winner.
Giveaway Resolution and Additional Winner
Mike realises he was in the wrong section of the email list and that Miranda was on the list. He decides to award Miranda an account as well, resulting in two winners for the giveaway. He apologises for the mix-up and emphasizes his commitment to fairness. He then forwards the winners' information to Take Profit Trader to transfer the accounts.
Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
Mike discusses his current trading positions, noting a small loss on his micros. He highlights a potential shooting star candle forming on gold and a concerning pattern on crude oil. He also mentions a double top target on Nvidia and a potential short opportunity on Hood. He emphasizes the importance of reward-to-risk ratio and sticking to his trading plan.
Market Commentary and Closing Remarks
Mike notes that Tape Trader has already transferred over the credits for the giveaway accounts. He reiterates his intention to give the accounts to the viewers. He expresses his desire to short the market but acknowledges the need to wait for the right setup. He announces his plan to jump off the stream early to run errands and potentially trade in the afternoon, and thanks viewers for joining.
