Mastering the Squeeze: High Probability Setups with Pro Indicators

0:08 All right, welcome, welcome, welcome everybody. Thank you for coming. We are doing a webinar on Ballinger bands, on Kelner bands, and on how to use them together today. So, uh there's a lot of really cool things that we can talk about involving the strategies. First, we're going to go over the basics of the indicators themselves. We're going to talk about uh how I use them to trade, some alternate methods, and uh yeah, just a bunch of a bunch bunch of methods to get you using these systems in your in your own trading gear. So, thanks for bearing with me here while I got set up. Uh the Discord stream should be running nice and smoothly now. Thanks for your patience. And uh yeah, we're going to do a nice questions and answers session after. We're going to go over some live charts. So, if you have any charts that you think might be doing one of these setups, throw them my way during the chat here. We can talk about them after.

0:54 And if any other questions come up, just throw them in there as well. So, thank you so much, guys. We're going to hop on over into presentation. So, mastering the squeeze trading b, excuse me, talking too much lately. Sorry about that. Trading Ballinger bands and Kelner channels. So, uh, we're going to be doing a whole little little series on strategies and, uh, we're also going to be doing one on indicators. I'm just going to be kind of trying to build these series out going forward. So, this is the first in it. Uh, we're going to be talking about some some indicators and strategies that I think are essential. Um, this is a strategy that I use very regularly. I used it this week to catch NE. We'll be talking about

1:41 that. I used it about a month ago to catch Coinbase on their massive breakout. And a few in the middle there. I think OKLO was the setup as well as AS. So, uh, very relevant for the charts that we have today and I think you guys will be able to find some of these in the markets. So, I'm looking forward to showing you what I got. So, learning objectives here are mastering the Ballinger band plus Kelner channel squeeze setup. We're going to be talking about how to identify high probability squeeze breakouts. We're going to be talking about learning precise entry and exit techniques for these strategies. We're going to be uh understanding what squeeze momentum is and directional signals and we're going to you know basically tie this all together into a complete squeeze trading system. So let's let's jump right into part one

2:27 here. Part one is understanding the squeeze setup. A squeeze is simply when the Ballinger bands contract inside the Kelner channels. We'll have charts coming up in just a a screenshot or two away. So, a slide or two away. So, don't worry if this doesn't make sense yet, but for now, just uh these are bands on the top and bottom of the charts. They're going to be representing different things, which we'll talk about. But when the Ballinger bands are inside the Kelner channels, it indicates an extremely low volatility trading environment. And this compression is going to create like a coiled spring effect. And when the volatil uh volatility does return, as it always does, it will be uh very explosive and we'll have the the context clues based

3:13 on our other trading uh trading systems that we've uh built up in the past couple months here to basically infer direction and then we get in right before the big volatility expansion in our direction hopefully. So, uh, that's the squeeze and that's why we want to be in it and we want to be able to identify it and we can talk about some tools that we can use to, uh, to do that. So, there's really two key components here. It's pretty simple. We got the Ballinger bands, we got the Kelner channels. Um, and honestly, they're very similar, too. So, you don't have to learn two things that are radically different, just two slightly different indicators, and you have to understand what each of them mean and what it means when they do things in conjunction with each other. So, uh, first off, the Ballinger bands are like a volat a volatility envelope. They're going to like catch the high and

3:59 low end of volatility. So, you know, on those big wicks in the morning, you know, on the morning runs and stuff like that, uh, often those will wick down off of Ballinger bands because, uh, essentially you have the middle line, which is just a 20 moving average on any time frame, but then the upper and lower bands are plus or minus two standard deviations of a move from the midpoint. So just mathematically it makes very logical sense that on any impulse move you'll see sellers kind of starting to step in there on any given time frame especially higher time frames. So uh because of that they're very useful for tracking intraday price action. They're very good for sell signals. If you're in a play and it's working very well and you feel like man this is running too hot the uh the Ballinger band can be a

4:44 great exit. Anything over the Ballinger band on a the time frame you're trading could represent uh being relatively overbought. in fact over two times, you know, over an over 2x standard deviation move overbought. And therefore, it's very likely that that will revert back to the mean. And when we say revert back to the mean, we're talking about this middle line. So, um, those those are the components of a Ballinger band and kind of what they represent. And their purpose is, like I said, just measuring that price volatility relative to recent trading. So um the next component is a Kelner channel which is slightly different. So this is going to be a 20 period EMA for the middle and the upper and lower lines are going to be 1.5 times the average true

5:29 range of a stock. So uh both of these both of these indicators look back a certain you know distance. I think the default is 30 days. I'm not 100% sure on that. It might be 20 uh but I believe it's 30. And uh essentially uh it takes the average of either the standard deviation moves from the price or uh the average true range moves of the price on each of those uh days that it's looking back and then you know it takes an average of all those and uses that to draw your draw your lines here. So uh not super important to understand the exact details but the important thing to know is that Ballinger bands they move more they're more uh sensitive than the Kelner channels. So when you

6:15 have Ballinger bands squeezing inside the Kelner channels, it's representing that on the shorter time frame uh like you know most recently price is getting significantly tighter than it was you know in the uh the majority of the look back period of those 30 days. So essentially we're isolating like a day to a week where we can very likely get a big expansion in that volatility. So, uh, this is really useful for all types of trading, but I think especially for swing trading and for options traders because, um, these these tight setups allow you to to um to have very minimal risk, right? Because your stop losses can be much smaller, but your projected targets can be quite large because you're looking for that expansion. Um,

7:01 in general, uh, we always look to look for volatility just because, you know, uh, we we would like when things that we're in move big, but if we're able to get them when they're in a low volatility period, then you get that volatility expansion working for you. So, this is especially important if you're trading options because man, if you catch something right before it squeezes, you will just get the most beautiful premium expansion as gamma rapidly readjusts and exceeds the um the average moves of the past 30 days, this period of tightness. And so, yeah, uh you can get amazing price moves on those. Uh but even if you're just trading shares, this is super useful. Um even just scalping shares intraday, I use this very very frequently. I I do primarily use this on higher time frames

7:47 though, but it's a really good system. We're going to talk more about it in detail here, but first I want to just talk about the squeeze signal. So, um, if you're familiar with the TTM squeeze indicator, this is essentially describing the nuts and bolts of what that indicator is showing. So, you can just use the TTM squeeze indicator, but personally, I think it's um a lot more intuitive to visually have the two sets of bands on my chart. So, I I just use that instead. But if if you'd like, you can use the squeeze. And if you do use the TTM squeeze, this is how you read it. So if the squeeze is on, then Ballinger bands are completely inside of the Kelner channels. And it's a in the period of compression of that loading or accumulation or uh dist, you know, um uh getting ready to to potentially distribute if you're, you know, looking

8:34 for a bearish position. But in general, we're thinking accumulation. We're thinking this is consolidation for, you know, in general, we're we're bulls. We trade up. Um, so when you have the Ballinger bands completely inside the Kelner channels, it's very tight and you're looking for uh basically signals that that trend is about to change. What that'll look like is the squeeze indicator will turn off and the Ballinger bands will start to expand outside of the Kelner channels. And so, uh, the vis visual indicator are just dots on the bottom of like a MACD type oscillator. And so, you know, just check the settings and figure which out which is on and which is off. And it's uh pretty intuitive, pretty clear. But, uh, like I said, this is just telling you the same thing as having both Ballinger bands and Kelner channels on

9:19 your chart. So, take your pick there. So, why does this combination even work? Who discovered this? When I first uh was taught this, I was like, how did like I just don't I didn't get how somebody stumbled across across this, but it works very consistently. So, it's just uh always worth having in your tool belt there. So it works because Ballinger bands react quickly like I mentioned earlier to the to the volatility changes and Kelner channels provide like a stable range B uh based look at volatility. So together they create this uh this reliable low volatility uh identifier uh basically they can pinpoint it like I like I was describing when it's just starting to expand. And the psychology behind that is essentially that traders recognize these patterns in general. And so as they see

10:06 the Ballinger bands getting tight, they'll start to kind of, you know, keep it on their watch list or start building a position. And as it starts to break, you'll see more traders kind of, you know, it'll go off on different scanners and they'll start to pile in there. So that's what we're looking for ideally. Um there are also ways to fade RSI um bands and that's I would say actually the traditional way people use them like uh like how I was uh describing with uh with exits for a scalp for example if it's over the one minute um the one minute Ballinger band you might consider taking a a trim off. Um but in general I'm sorry I just lost my train of thought there. in in general um in general you want to

10:53 fade them in an in a consolidation range. But the squeeze strategy is to identify when we're breaking the range. Sorry, I had I had to bring it full circle and remember what the heck I was even talking about. It's been a very long trading week, so bear with me here. So we've got uh we've got the squeeze formation and the characteristics of this this uh stage of the pattern here is that Ballinger bands get super narrow and move inside the Kelner channels. Uh the volume is going to decrease almost always it's going to decrease as the uncertainty you know increases. So there's kind of like a a pushpull of like price is consolidating but more and more people are like on the edge of their seat waiting because it you know it can't just not move at all. So if it keeps, you know, tightening, tightening,

11:39 tightening, everybody's waiting for that break. So, uh, volume, like I said, will decrease. And you can also look at that as, uh, essentially shares running out at the current price. And so often you'll see a series of higher lows on the way to a squeeze breakout. And then it'll just the shares will run out, it'll start going, uh, bulls will start bidding each other up, shorts will start having to, uh, you know, fight each other to get out of their positions. and you'll get that really nice trend of of movement if if you identify it correctly. So, um that is uh that's the push out. I'm sorry, but this is the actual squeeze still. So, at this point, the price action is still quite choppy and rangebound and we're still waiting for that kind of just ascension out of

12:25 there. Um momentum indicators are going to flatten near neutral levels and this is where you'll see a lot of confluence between this system and other trading systems. So, if uh anybody trades um I'm blanking on his name right now. It starts with a Q like Quali. I don't know how to say it, but I know he he really likes to trade like bands of flattened moving averages. And I I do as well. I I use a slightly different uh system, my trigger system, but the same principle applies that you really like to see multiple moving averages just just evening out and stacking on top of each other. And you can you can use them as as levels to break and to back test, you know, for uh entry to a position. You can use them as uh stop losses once you break above them. And you can like ride those those waves up as they flatten and

13:12 then start to fan out. And you can ride the aggressive ones up. So uh right now they're all flat like this. And that's what we're looking for in the squeeze formation. And let's talk about what it looks like on a chart. So uh you want to look for a minimum of five consecutive periods of the squeeze condition. So right here, this is Coin's chart. This is the right wall that it built before it broke out about a month ago. And what put this on my radar, why I was in this trade, I got in a little early, like on the top of this red candle here, the second puke stick. So I was a little bit red at first, but in general, uh, it was a pretty clean entry. And Oops. And uh yeah, why it was on my radar is because it was one two three about to be four, five, you know, it was it was

13:58 developing uh well along into this kind of five five window period in this Ballinger band compression inside the Kelner channel here. So, what this was telling me was essentially, you know, we had we had had this nice rally and it was flagging out pretty constructively and this whole time for about three weeks since it was included into the S&P, the Ballinger bands had just been tightening and tightening and tightening and they got like very very tight in these couple days here. And so that's why when it opened here and it didn't didn't like gap something crazy below this, I just bought pretty close to open and said I'm pretty sure this is a safe bet that we're basically near the bottom of a range that's under incredibly tight compression and it's looking to break

14:43 out of a major pattern. So uh that's kind of a lot of the hallmarks of this kind of squeeze that you look for for an A+ setup. But yeah, the key takeaway here, Kelner channel or I'm sorry, Ballinger bands inside the Kelner channel and uh tight flagging and uh yeah, let's see. So, what else do we have? Uh we have the decreasing average true range. You can't see it on here, but that was definitely the case where just essentially the average uh daily move since this move was tightening up pretty uh pretty severely, especially in these days here. Um price is staying, you know, within one or two% of moving averages. I think the I don't have it on here. We can pull the chart up later and check, but I believe right at the bottom of this candle going like that was a

15:28 20day moving average or something. So, it was still within the margin of error when it was coming down here. So, I didn't get too worried about it. And then it is building volume on any directional attempts. So, the big green was to start the move. And then every time there was a green bar, it tended to be bigger than the ones around it. And then in here, this is when it really started kicking off, of course. But in general, just overall, the only bar in this consolidation pattern, the only couple bars that were above the average range or the 20 moving average of the volume were green. So just in general, what this was showing me was that in this period of consolidation after a major move up, more long-term investors are

16:16 buying the shares of short-term traders who are losing their patience in this handle. And essentially, the cohort of traders or the cohort of people holding the shares of this company are getting more and more bullish and more and more willing to hold for an extended move. So just everything is kind of setting up together there. So that's that's what you can look for to be really tight like this to have the decreasing volume and you want to see volume that is above the average in this consolidation range be bullish assuming you're looking for a long position. Um yeah and then you just want to keep it tight within the moving averages. So the next part is the breakout which is triggered when the Ballinger bands expand outside the Kelner channels. So technically this didn't actually occur till up here till a day after the breakout. So technically pretty extended

17:06 entry, right? For me personally, I mean I I I was playing like a pullback and what I call this and what actually what Mitch Money Mitch from Trade the Pool likes to call these are Ballinger band squats. So basically because of all the things I mentioned, I was already looking to get long this name, right? Um so I what am I looking for for a really specific entry? If I'm trying to play the squat entry, you want to look for basically it to pop off the top of the Kelner and then come down and get close to or tap into the uh the lower half of these bands. And so it didn't quite get there, which is probably just a sign of strength in retrospect. It did clear out these stops, which I like to see, and then close a candle green there after it did.

17:52 So that's all nice and uh pretty constructive there. And uh let's see what else we have. a surge of volume when it does break these bands. Um, and that that this is all just added to the uh the confluence of the trade. But in general, in terms of entry, I was looking to kind of get in in the lower half of this to frontr run this move. But you could also say, okay, it's a valid long when it breaks the high of this or somewhere in this area for the reason that it broke the actual bands on the chart of the Kelner and you're expecting it to ride that up. So, uh, there's a couple different ways that you could enter. For me personally, I like these squat entries, and we'll talk more about them in a little bit, but you know, the little pop up, squat down, and then power out. So, these can get you really nice, uh, nice RR moves here. So,

18:39 uh, the traditional signal is price closes beyond both the Ballinger band and the Kelner channel. And momentum indicators like our moving averages, not on this chart, it'll be on the next slide, but, you know, it's starting to curl up pretty severely there. And uh no immediate resistance or support level nearby is important just because uh you know we're looking for an extended move. And if we're expecting an extended move to happen, but we're trading right under a major resistance, that's going to make it a lot less likely because it has to just surge straight through that major level. I'd rather see it push through, back test, and do the setup for a big push up. So, uh speaking of that, that is what we saw on Coin. This big red level is very important. and it pushed up, back tested, chopped around, and then broke out from there. So, those are

19:25 the kind of um signals that you're looking for for an entry on um on the breakout. And let's see, here's a little more specifics on the entry criteria. So that squeeze that we talked about with the TTM, we want that to be off because we want to essentially have the price pushing out of the Ballinger bands and the Kelners, we want to uh see the the break of both bands in the same direction. Of course, we want uh volume to increase substantially. So as you can see, we went from here to about 2.5 to three times average volume on the breakout. So that's that's what it looks like when a breakout happens on volume, you know, and that's that's uh what you need when you when you want one

20:10 of these suspended uh squeeze type moves because essentially you are banking on like big money to keep this move going and they're not the ones day trading, right? So it's got to be significant volume that isn't going to be getting pulled on and off the books, you know, every hour or something. It needs to be something that somebody's okay holding for a while. So that usually signals rising long-term support. So uh yeah, uh besides the increase in volume, you're going to be looking for momentum to align with the breakout direction. So just the same thing we're talking about, right? Framing our trade on a higher time frame. We were already bullish this name. We were just waiting for our entry. Pulled down in a tight Ballinger band and that was it for me. Um if I was a momentum breakout trader, I would be buying through here. And I did add a little bit somewhere, I forget exactly

20:56 where, somewhere in this area just because it was so strong. Um, so, and the last thing is just no major news events that could be causing a false breakout because there's nothing more unfortunate than thinking that you are getting a breakout. Say you thought you were getting a break down here and you were like, "Oh man, we're getting so close. We're going to just hit these and then push these bands all the way back down." and then you end up just being in the part where you should be looking the other direction because you, you know, your head wasn't looking the right direction basically overall. And so, you know, that's a good way to get uh get your face ripped off there. So, make sure that you have the frame traded correctly so that you have a good directional bias overall. Um, and that is the breakout. Next, we get the actual move itself. So, how to how to like trade the move and what the move will

21:42 likely look like. So this is that same coin chart just after it broke that flag just surged up through the Ballinger bands through the Kelner bands or channel came back and kind of just rode the Kelner up. It's interesting how they'll often do that. So you can kind of think of it like it's stuck in the zone between these two bands since it broke through and then immediately you know pop back essentially in them. You know at least the candle bodies are in them. it's essentially kind of stuck in this zone here and then it tries to break out the top and it fails and then it loses the zone between these two bands and that's when the trade's kind of over there. So, um, a few things I want to talk about there. First off, the typical duration, it can

22:29 vary quite a bit. It really depends on the length of the base that's breaking out. It really depends on the strength of, you know, the move for other factors, too. Uh it depends on like how much short interest there is. A lot of short interest can stuff a squeeze or it can if it's too much it can you know be a powder keg and get they can get squeezed themselves super hard. So uh yeah there are a lot of variables here that can that can change the actual duration but in general somewhere between 10 and 50 time periods on whatever chart you're trading. So, this was a daily chart and roughly 25ish looks like days, 30 days, maybe something like that. I don't know. I'm not going to count, but it was quite a rally. So, um these moves have legs is essentially uh the point here. Once you

23:15 catch the squeeze, you can really really just just hold and relax. And I was talking about people were like, "When are you selling coin?" And I'm like, I I sold some at all-time highs just because it's all-time highs and I don't know what it's going to do. But until it loses this midband, I have no reason to think that the trade is completely done. Um the other the other thing that would uh indicate that is if the Ballinger bands resqueeze back into the Kelner. That tells me that it's no longer in expansion and it needs to set up the Ballinger band squeeze setup again. So it could just get tight up here again and then break out further, which is kind of what I would expect. or it could just bounce here and just uh continue pretty immediately. But either way, um pretty hands-off trade, right? Got in

24:02 cheap, took profit. This was another take-profit level. And then if it sets up again, I will add back in. Um so the characteristics, like I said, sustained directional movement, the bands will remain expanded. See how they're floating up here like this. Uh the volume supports the move. So just you know just like any any move we need to see the volume come in and stick the move and that's what we saw with coin and we got the big expansion and follow through. So uh momentum indicators will stay in trending uh territory as long as the move is in effect. So right here this is the 20 moving average and that's also the mid point of the Kelner channel. So as long as it's you think about it like this. This was like the squeeze area right where it's over the Kelner usually under the bel uh Ballinger. Then

24:49 you have like you can think of this as like A+ like A+ S tier and then this is like AB tier still like this is still good if it's above the middle and it's under the uh under the Kelner. This is still like a very strong chart that's trading in this this quadrant of its uh range. Right? So, as long as it is still getting bought in this area on top of the uh the 20-day moving average or 20 period moving average, you're probably still good to hold on to it and just, you know, let the trade keep on moving up and out. And as all these moving averages keep going higher, price will keep getting bought higher. And, uh, you know, it is the natural tendency of something that's in motion to keep going in motion till there's a reason for

25:34 something to change. like maybe it's coming into a major level, maybe it's uh you know uh coming into an event that's re uh relevant and could change the trajectory of a stock. But until there's some reason, you know, it's a pretty straight shot. Like for example, we this was a key level for me, this first horizontal line. So we popped it, back tested it, and pushed up. And since then, you know, it was like a straight shot to that big level. Then we confirmed it. And then it was just a straight shot to this big all-time highs level. And as soon as it it hit this, you know, there were some sellers in effect. So, you know, price likes to make these straight shot moves when it is uh when it is allowed to and there's nothing in its way. So, that those are the straight shot moves that we're trying to trying to catch with these squeezes.

26:19 So, some management techniques for managing the the move, you can use that middle line that we talked about for trailing stops and just keeps you safe. So even if you got in at the very high of the day on this first breakout day, within 1 2 3 4 five six, let's call it five days, your stop loss is already at break even, even though you're, you know, buying a giant stick here and you're up quite a considerable amount already. So these trades are often really easy. I mean, I I gotta say like it's more about the patience in uh you know, waiting for the setup and the practice in accurately identifying them. But once you're in, the moves are typically very easy to trade, which is another reason why I look for them because my strength lies in my analysis

27:06 more often than it lies in my position management. You know, I'm I'm I'm human. I um I'm not like some insane god reflexes trader, you know, scalping every half minute candle. Uh, in general, I like easy trades that are low maintenance and I don't have to over overly fine-tune and manage and psych myself out of. So, uh, that's why this is a a big component of my tool toolkit here. So, where was I? We talked about trailing stops at the middle lines. We talked about scaling out at predetermined levels. I don't know if we talked about that yet, but we're going to. So, like I'd said with coin, predetermined levels here, took the profit and waiting for it to reset up. leave a runner on in between because nothing moves in a straight line. Even the strongest stock in the world is

27:52 going to have red days. So, um, with that in mind, we let the stocks breathe and we keep an eye on our rising moving averages for support and for our stops. And the, like I said, if the Ballinger band were to re-enter the Kelner, I would be that would be like a red flag for me and I'd be on pretty high alert. And if there was any confluence between that and any of my other uh potential exit indicators or you know triggers, I would just just cut the trade there. So what does the exhaustion and reset look like? I think it's important to talk about what happens when these squeezes stop squeezing. So a few things because coin is still in its squeeze and still seems good to me.

28:38 I can't show you that. What I can show you is coin when it squeezed up previously from 180 to 3 plus 100 and then you know fell off pretty hard here. So as you can see very similar setup here we have the Ballinger band this light gray under the dark gray Kelner channel for about five plus days at the bottom here just before it breaks out first breaks out comes back in. It does undercut the middle line there. That's sneaky. But, you know, it holds this this moving average, which was a pretty key level that it, you know, traded up into, gapped over to break out, back tested right there. And it also just about went back into squeeze. It wasn't quite able to because of the strength of this of this gap up,

29:25 but you know, basically was primed and ready to go there. So, that's the squeeze. Squeezing on up. Squeezing on up. Crazy volatility. This is crazy chop here. But in general, it is trying to find price acceptance up here. And as we can see, it'll fail. So, how do we know that it's going to fail? First off, the Ballinger band, our light gray line here, comes back on in really aggressively through our Kelner. So, that would be a get out signal for me. And that actually occurs on this green day. So, that gets you a really nice exit if you took that. um otherwise it opens at the high of day and closes near the low of day. So that's a big kicker cand candle there confirming that this Ballinger band is back inside the Kelner and the initial squeeze is off. So now

30:11 that the squeeze is off, it needs to recheck in with the middle line here and see like okay maybe the initial burst is off but maybe we can just flag up here and push higher. If so, then it needs to remain constructive at the midpoint of the Kelners and that's that 20-day moving average or 20 period moving average. So immediately when it rejects, it comes down and pinpoint tests that it does hold for now. So at this point, there would be no trade for me or maybe I'd be looking for a short on the break of some level here. But in general, you can't can't be looking for a long in something like this that just had a massive move, is starting to cool off and is consolidating upwards. So that's pretty scary. So once it breaks this, we know the move's off and lo and behold, comes back to reset off the bottom of

30:57 the of the Ballinger bands there. So uh this is very cyclical. You'll see this happen quite similarly on almost every every stock and just in cycles of you know squeezing really tightly, popping really aggressively. Uh the Ballinger bands will eventually come back in to the Kelner channels. That'll end that period of intense expansion. it'll start to set up into another Ballinger band squeeze which can take anywhere from, you know, a couple weeks to years depending on the time frame and the stock. So, uh, really important to just kind of be cognizant of where we are on any given stock in that kind of cycle of expansion and compression because you always want to be early to the expansion and you want to get out before it starts compressing, especially if you're an

31:42 options trader because you guys know how the same price with a few candles of consolidation can change quite dramatically. If it just ramps up to one level, that's one thing. But if it ramps up and then trades sideways for 10 minutes, that price will be worth, you know, the contract will be worth very different. So, uh, you need to get that expansion for options, you want to get that expansion in general, and that's what we're trying to pinpoint. So, let's talk about some precise entry and exit techniques. Real quick, I'm just going to check my messages, make sure I not missing an important notification there. Okay, we're good. And how you guys doing in the chat here? I've been neglecting you so far today, but I appreciate you all for showing up. I see a lot of the regulars, Mike and

32:28 Tyler. Good to see you guys. I will be answering questions, so don't you all worry about that. All right, cool. Appreciate the engagement there. Awesome. Let's get back into it. Precise entry and exit techniques. So, first off, we have the first method, which is an aggressive entry. And this is essentially entering immediately on the squeeze off signal. I very rarely take these to be honest. I just they don't give enough conflence to me, but I definitely use this as a part of my overall system. So, uh, the advantages of this are that you get in right at the beginning of the move, but it comes at the risk of false breakouts and getting whipsawed back and forth because it's one thing to get caught in a false breakout and that sucks. But it

33:15 double sucks when you get caught in a false breakout and then you convince yourself, okay, it wasn't a real false breakout and then the false breakout false breakdowns and then you get the initial squeeze that you were looking for, but you're not in it or even worse, you're short it. So, um, you know, it it really just does take a lot of time on the charts and getting a feel for it and figuring out what style of trader are you. Are you the kind of aggressive breakout trader that's looking for those home run plays? Are you okay with taking your 15 20% stopouts on him for the, you know, 150% upside of your coin long, you know, like that's that's who I am on swing trades. So, you know, I I do trade pretty aggressively um on those. Um, but the downside are you sometimes get kind

34:02 of blown up on a position like him. Um, so it is what it is. Uh, these are best for experienced traders and uh, liquid markets. Essentially, you want to be able to identify what is a real breakout and what is a fake out. And, uh, if you can't do that, you probably shouldn't be trading with aggressive entries like this. So, uh, if that sounds like a little too aggressive for you, we also have the conservative entry. The timing for this is waiting for a pullback after the initial breakout. And the process is essentially you enter on the retest of the breakout level with volume. So this is more similar to my coin entry, right? Because we had the big stick on when it got the inclusion into the S&P 500. Then it flagged there for like three weeks and then when it reclaimed the level that it initially had surged up to that

34:49 became like a pivot over the past couple weeks then I you know I basically longed it in that squat that we talked about in the lower half of the r of the Ballinger band range. So uh I like these because you can essentially get in on that retest. You can really minimize your risk because if you're good at this, you see it coming back into your level. you start to see price like not fighting so much to push down and just having a little bit easier time uh pushing up and then you just get in with a stop right under where it started to work and you can often catch the bottom of things and just have amazing risk uh uh risk-to-reward trades with this method. So that is my favorite probably. But uh let's see uh the advantage like I was talking about those reduced false

35:35 signals because you're waiting for the back test and better riskreward. And it's best for people who are either riskaverse or just like choppy markets where you can't necessarily expect every move to just go, you know, like 60 to 65% of breakouts that go a significant, you know, uh distance will back test the breakout level. So just waiting for those. You know, be patient. just set a uh set an alert, wait for that back test, and uh yeah, you'll you'll be you'll be in much better shape than just playing that breakout for most people. I know there are some just pure breakout traders, and you're really good at it. Uh for me, it's stressful, so I try not to do it too much. Uh we also have three uh momentum uh method three,

36:20 which is the momentum entry. So, this one is basically you enter when momentum confirms the direction. So this is kind of catching that squeeze and uh so you're going to be looking at at some oscillator moment um indicators like RSI or MACD or you know anything like that maybe money flow index maybe C CVD you know that those kinds of things to basically try to catch the uh you know like when momentum confirms then you're just like buying any little counter trends essentially you know so it is um it takes a decent level of of technical analysis knowledge, I'd say, and like being able to be adept at comparing

37:07 multiple time frames. For example, like, okay, we're bullish on a daily time frame, but every time we give an entry on like the 15minute chart, which may be bearish intraday, I'll be looking to get long for this overall daily uptrend. So that's like for example, OKLO, we were in from 5657ish. It surged up to 67ish or something and we took some off. Um it came back down to what was it? I want to say like 60 bucks under 60 and we we added back on a reclaim of 62. But you know like we we uh we got opportunities to enter this big

37:52 major long-term trend and in the moment they seemed very violent. It was like a minus 6 or 7% day on OKLO. I think it might have been like minus 10% or something but it provided an amazing entry if for anybody looking at a higher time frame with conviction. So that's where these uh these can really help just having conviction. If you have if you enter the sustained squeeze period, you can be more confident. You can have these names on a list and say, "Man, these names are just working and they're in expansion." So, if I see flow come in, for example, I can wait for a little pullback and feel okay taking these trades. Even though otherwise they may be kind of extended, but you know, if uh if it's working, it can keep working for a considerable amount of time. You can use these uh these uh these Ballinger bands as as guides to, you know, kind of

38:38 just keep in a trade as it as it continues to work. And you can use the middle point, that 20 moving average for your rough stop. You know, I wouldn't say like tap it and you're out, but like a close underneath it or something and you're out. So, uh, yeah, these are kind of the three main ways that you can trade or sorry, that you can, uh, enter these stocks, but I want to talk about a little bit more in depth about how to manage them because there are a few ways. I talked about what I use the most, which is just that middle of the band. But, you know, sometimes that will be a little bit too wide, and you want to be able to tighten that up without having to, you know, let a stop, you know, a stop come all the way back and stop you out to the middle line of, for example, that coin chart that we had earlier. That was a pretty big distance away from the midline when it even broke

39:24 out of the Ballingers. So, if it was to come all the way back down to that midline, that would be a little bit painful. So, what you can do is you can use ATR trailing, which is essentially using a trailed stop of 1.5 to two times the average true range from the current price. So, basically, you're saying, "All right, if I'm right, the stock isn't going to have an outsized red day. It could have a a regular sized red day. It could even have like a a a red day that's a little bit bigger than average. But if it has a big red day based on the past, you know, sizes of the candles, then I'm going to say I'm wrong. So, you can do that. Um 1.5 to two is a decent uh decent kind of window for that. You can fiddle around with that and see what kind of feels best for you. And it can also depend on the trade, too. you know,

40:10 just uh based on like your entry. If you got in a little bit of a cheat entry, you know, maybe you expected it to reclaim a level, so you front ran that a bit and then it reclaimed it and gave you a little bit of extra cushion, maybe you can use a bit of a tighter ATR then. Um or I'm sorry, a looser ATR because you have some more some more wiggle room, so you can let the trade breathe. Um the last thing you can do is just uh use the use a trailing swing from uh swing highs and lows on the left side of the chart. Um, in general, just using the left side of your chart for exits is super super important. So, I think it's always relevant, even with like trailing stops, which you generally assume have nothing to kind of do with the left side of the chart. We're just talking about momentum and pushing upwards. But unless

40:57 you're in complete true uh price discovery mode with no price action on the left hand of the chart, you know, there's probably some level of interaction relatively close above or below you that you should be keeping an eye on. So, um you can just yeah swing those trailing stops under those uh those major swing highs or swing lows as you keep kind of moving up and reclaiming them and they are all valid methods. What I use personally is it does depend on the chart but in general I'm mostly a moving averages kind of guy. So if I see um if I see any kind of weakness on hourly closes for example or even 15-minute closes coming into the daily uh 20-day moving average, that's when I start to get worried on these momentum trades and maybe consider

41:43 stopping out and waiting for the reclaim to then get back in just a little bit higher. But yeah, um the important thing is to sorry uh the important thing is to essentially um give yourself enough room for really good setup which is one of the uh which one of these squeeze setups will often be. These can be giant moves. I mean coin is up 75% in like a month. So, for this kind of thing, there will be some shake, some some wiggle to the charts, and you want to basically let yourself capture the move and only only risk what you really have to. So, uh yeah, I think I covered everything about stops. I'm going a little a little insane. Um so,

42:29 I'm going to go get some water and and I think that'll help because it has been a doozy of a day. I don't know if anybody caught that N& move today, but that was a fun trade, but very management intensive. So, I'm a little fried. I will be right back and then we will talk about live charts. We'll jump into questions and we will wrap this up. So, thanks for your patience here. I'll be right back.

44:18 All right, guys. Let me take a look. See what you guys are talking about. Okay, cool, cool, cool, cool. I see some good feedback here. We are going to do some question and answer. And I think I'm going to pull up charts for this so that we can have examples right at our fingertips. You guys seeing my charts? Yeah, you are. Let's go. Okay,

45:05 so let's get into it. First off, we got mom. Hi, mom. Saying good confirmation is also selling red candles trending down into a squeeze. Let's take a look at that in the context of this. So, selling red candles trending down into squeeze. Yeah. So, like these are some red candles and we are starting to squeeze here. You could sell some of these red candles as it starts to trend down into the squeeze there. And that would be a really nice deflation trade there. Good look, Mom. I So, see, this is really cool because this is not a strategy that intuitively I would think of because I'm looking to catch this because I'm I'm all bullheaded, you know? I'm all bowled up. I'm trying to I'm trying to go up, but this is just as

45:52 valid and maybe more reliable. So, this is something I might have to back test or see if anybody else has back tested. Um, so yeah, red candles. You short the red candles as it starts to close the squeeze move. That's cool. Let's uh let's find another example. I'm g try this out. I love doing stuff like this. So, here's this top pattern of spy from earlier in the year. So, we are squeezing here, squeezing here. We enter the squeeze here. Would be nice if you shorted that, but wasn't quite a signal. So, here we are in squeeze. No red candles to short, but just shorting weakness into the squeeze essentially seems pretty profitable.

46:38 And okay, now here's another better example, I think. So, we squeezed up, came back inside. Now, shorting weakness red candles. So, maybe you're looking at this range, saying when it loses this range, I short. And that's literally the exact trade I took. So, I mean, for different reasons, but absolutely the same same uh couple of days here, which is basically the top was the top. Nice. Um, okay. So, yeah, I like this a lot. And then what Mom, if you're still around, let us know what your exit would be. Would it just be kind of the inverse when they cross back in? Let's see how that would work. All the way down and then it crosses back in.

47:23 way down here. Sick. That's pretty cool. All right, this is cool. I won't waste your time too much, but I'm going to I'm going to back test this. Thanks, Mom. All right, my man James Who wants Archer. Okay, I know I had a rough week. We will talk about that specific chart. Uh I want to talk about the RSI, I'm sorry, the Ballinger and calendar questions first, but I'm going to keep this one starred and I will come back to this. All right. Mom also saying on impulses RSI is better. This is great. Mom sounds like

48:10 she trades some uh trades some bands. Awesome. Okay, cool. On impulses, RSI is better. Tyler Smith saying, "Is it always a get out signal when the Ballinger crosses the Kelner or wait for a retest sometimes?" Let me read that and think about it. I wouldn't say I wouldn't say always, but let's look and see if there was a time when it wasn't a good idea. See, like a lot of times it's totally fine if the trend is strong. It's less get out and it's more wait and see for sure. Like I'm always just a 20 and a 10

48:56 guy. You know what are my 20s and tens doing? If they're if we're buying off the tens, just let it do its thing. Let it do its thing. Now we're closing under the 10. This is a scary candle for me. But be's up here. No worries with the Ballinger band going back in, I don't think. Uh, good question though. I'm on with some more good points here. Uh, usually exceeding two to three standard deviation on a Ballinger band is a good takeprofit when RSI is above 75. Absolutely. So, yeah, RSI somewhere in the 70 to 80 zone. Just basically saying overbought as heck. Things can always stay overbought as heck, but they generally will revert to mean somewhere

49:42 between two and three standard deviations. Uh, so I usually have bands like this. So I have the two and the three standard deviations. And that can show you some pretty cool stuff, too. So for coin, yeah, tagged into three standard deviations a few times. Oops. There we go. All right. Is this just the biggest rising wedge y'all ever did see or what?

50:30 I'm getting distracted. But look at this thing. It's just a giant rising wedge. Where can I draw it from? Right there. I'll find it. Okay. See, this is this is what I do when I lack sleep. I just doodle on charts. Let's get back to questions. Mom with more wisdom here. Problem is, your emotions will want to hold and watch it run. Ain't that the truth? But mom always knows best. So listen to her. Stick to the math. When the quant sell, when the nerds are selling, guys, nerds are smart. Nerds are cool. Be like the nerds and sell when it's two to three standard deviations from the mean. Um Tyler Smith, I had puts this morning on CRCL when it was in that downtrend right

51:17 at market and open and I expected it to continue and it completely flipped. Can you review CRCL? Need to learn more on my exits. Yes, let's talk about that in the context of Ballinger bands if possible. But yeah, we'll definitely talk about what I see. So, this is a chart. Get rid of those. So, you were scalping, I figure. Heck, let's just do the whole thing. Why not? So, if I'm scalping, first off, I say, what is my trading range? High to the low. That's the bigger trading range. We can also just go this swing high to this swing low.

52:03 Any important levels in here? Nothing too major. We have this 23 and that aligns with a couple other candle tops and bottoms and more importantly this volume profile here in the pivot the red dash line. So this would be on my radar in terms of framing the trade. I would also have yesterday's low on. Change that to gray. I would have yesterday's close, yesterday's open, yesterday's high, and then I would just keep in mind that the 20 or the the 9 days is right here. And the 20-day is most important. And that's going to be right in alignment just about with the pivot of this close, this

52:48 open, and more or less this close. And it's the bottom of the volume shelf here, too. So I'm just talking through my thought process of how about how I would even frame a trade like a scalp. So even if you're just trading intraday, you got to look at these things. I promise you it's worth it. So in general, how I would view this is we are trying to basically negotiate this zone of interest, this big pivot point. So the question is we surged way above it, we came down. Are we holding it and we're just tapping under and we're looking long or is this starting to slide down into more major levels down here? So um Tyler, if you are still

53:37 here, looks like you are. Awesome. I might ask you a few questions, so be ready. Um, while I talk, first off, uh, was the trade, okay, you had puts on CRCL when it was in that downtrend right at market open. Did you enter today or was this a swing? Um, and let me think if I have any any other questions there. trying to figure out how I can best help frame this trade in terms of today's price action. Okay, so you caught some of this momentum. Woo and then it just hard stopped there and reversed. So that looks like a higher

54:22 time frame level. What did it sweep that mattered? Was it 18924? Was it Looks like 18818 mattered. We can go to the hourly and zoom back. Okay, it looks like this is a level. See this cluster here? This cluster here tags back into it. Give a little more room there. Area of interest there as well. Okay. So, it's like an area of interest that seems to have found buyers. So, it needs to lose this if we want to be short

55:08 circle. And in general, we should be trying to look for a trade probably somewhere back up into this big shelf. And if we want to short it, what I would really like is I would like for it to kind of wimpily come back up here and then either spike above and reject or just curl over like that. And we could get short in this area off of this big pivot and assume basically what it's doing is it's overshooting. It's going to back test and then come down. So, if you're bare on the circle, which I wouldn't blame you. I could see it going either way, honestly. But if you're bare, I would look for

55:55 that next week. In terms of just today's trade, like what did you do wrong? Let's look. So, first off, you got short, which is killer. You probably saw this big red candle and it wicked back up. And I would figure you maybe entered somewhere in there. Okay. 190 puts. It hit 188. Flipped back up. Bought them today at market open. Yeah. Then Okay. Then at about 9:45, it flipped up. Okay. Cool. Cool. Cool. Cool. Awesome. So, you were in from open. Lucky you. Nice. Um, so first step, you're in the trade, comes down, smashes through VWAP. That's bearish. Nice. uh pre-market range

56:43 pretty well established. Um I would note that so this is yesterday's close. It traded up into it and then spiked above and then rejected. So that's this candle should be telling you all you need to know in terms of okay, it wasn't ready to go up. It got what it needed. It got people out who are long and you know like whatever you know it was this level that they closed at instant reaction is down through VWAP coming back up into this level that would have been a nice short um but in general you are just riding down riding down and you're getting that big expansion so whereas here Ballinger bands were inside the Kelner here now Ballinger

57:30 bands are expanding way big out so the first thing I would say is these bottom wicks here would make me pause and think that I probably need to take profit pretty soon. I will also throw my cam pivots on and yeah, these really help me because they give me a range. There it is. So, see this is the bull supply zone here. So, this is the area right before the level three pivot. So before this level three pivot, I found that this is the area where price often will be kind of coralled or uh caught, you know. So it often likes to come back, dip into this green, and then push up into the red, then dip back to the

58:17 middle, and then if it's bullish, it'll push higher. If it's bearish, it'll lose the middle and then usually make a new low. Something like that. But in general, when I'm in a trade, sure, and I'm scalping, and we start to post bottom wicks inside this area of potential buyers, that's a pretty big sign for me that I need to take a partial off, or at the very least, I need to free roll this trade and say, "Hey, I'm in all the way up here. I got to at least make sure that it doesn't come back and rip my head off." If you're in puts, that could happen even before high a day. So, personally with options, I always like to only buy options that won't destroy me mentally if they go, you know, catastrophically down. And my stop is essentially the price of the option. And

59:02 um, you know, if the trade works, ideally, I get over 100%. If it trade doesn't work, then I just take whatever pennies I can from the failed trade idea. Um, so for example, if I'm inputs and I'm down here and I'm getting bottom wicks into a a potential supply area, I'm sorry, demand area, I'm taking a partial off. If I only have one, I'm booking it. If I only have one and I'm feeling like the man and I feel like, no, we're going we're going for the lower targets. Let me zoom out again so you can see. We're going for the bearish targets, these Camaria like fours and fives. And if if you think that we're going for those or five and six, uh if you think we're going for those, then what you got to do is at the very least say, I am making a tactical bet, but I

59:48 will not lose money on a trade that is deep green. You know, so you got to decide where whether that's a certain amount of money you want to retain from the trade, you know, when it comes back up that you can just put your stop to or whatever. But in general, yeah, I think this was probably your time to get out and then it gets really hard, right? Because if you're not quick to recognize the the buyers in these candles in the zone that it's kind of responding to, then you just get your face melted. And I mean, heck, that's like a pain chart where it's like, okay, they didn't run the highs here. Shorts tried again right back in the same zone with a nice higher high or higher low. just runs all the stops out.

1:00:35 Shorts try again and get blown blown out of the water before it kind of works. And at the end of the day, nobody wins. Just a flat day. So, not easy trading. Um, I hope this helped. Not sure what else to say about this one here, but I think that was your sign. Play got melted in two minutes. Yeah, it happens, man. I mean, you want to see one that got me? I made it back on Baba, but this one got me yesterday. This guy right here, I thought we were going to the moon. Uh, luckily I had two contracts and I sold one right into my

1:01:21 yellow. My bears or bulls will not pass line. So, I literally top ticked one, which feels really good. But my other one was down like 40% today. It was down like it was went from up 65 to down 15 half an hour an hour. That felt bad. So it's not just you, brother. It's not just you. Okay. Uh let's see what else we got. Roadrunner, good to see you in here, man. Uh you are looking road runner says I am looking at RXRX and I see the squeeze happened twice July 14th and around July 3rd. BB currently inside Casey. Can you take a look? Yeah, absolutely. I love this company. I think they're super cool. Uh I like them from a long-term investment narrative

1:02:08 perspective. That's intriguing. Let's see. Get rid of this. Oops. There we go. Um, okay. So, RXRX long-term testing this big old 730 level this week that that uh falling pretty steeply falling uh 20 month moving average. Let's look at the squeeze situation. So, squeezing pretty tight in here.

1:02:53 Looks like it broke out of the squeeze range or like this pennant type thing base. Looks like it's back testing this zone. That's really clean. See like uh yeah, there it is. Uh I love this. All right. So, it's like playing detective. It's like, okay, there's top wicks here and there's bottom wicks here. Clearly, there's some kind of zone. There's some kind of range. How is this range identified? This is the candle. It's like exactly to the tick just or it came down, tried to hold and then flushed it. So that became like ICT would call that a breaker block. And this level was important because we go back here and it was filling in that imbalance. It's just always interesting to see how price history there's so many little

1:03:39 things that have at least a small impact. Like maybe this candle isn't the whole reason, but like the fact that it aligns is very cool. and makes sense, right? Came down, tried to hold, it was fake. Resistance, resistance, resistance, resistance. Now flipping it and support. So that's always good. Um, in terms of Ballinger bands, yes, we have been, we're just starting to break out here. This is really clean. I like this a lot. So, what we can look for is volume profile. Look at that. We're right at the monster mountain apex. So, if we squeeze out of this, we should squeeze up to this guy right here. 730 to 750. 750, we'll call it. Why not?

1:04:25 740. How about that? I like this. And then we can start looking like, okay, we can get oursel a foothold, right? And especially if we take profits on like some of these crazy like a big crazy surge. Well, then we can have a foothold in a really good company from a really low price long term. Like long term, anything under this seven is still support essentially. Uh if you believe in this company, they're an AI, what is it? Gene editing. I think I used to know more about them. My friend loves this company. Um so yeah, cool one here. Um consider this for the long-term port and just buy some. And if it works, awesome. If it doesn't, buy more at

1:05:11 four. Um, this is like a small percentage of the port type play, not a put the farm on it. Um, one last thing I would do is I would just slap a fib here. And this gives you another kind of rough area for target. It should at least testing the fib. It should at least test the equilibrium. I'd say kind of the top of this base. This would be another logical spot. Fill the gap in the volume profile. fill this gap on the chart up to nine round dollar number there, too. So, yeah, I really like RXRX. I'm going to add it to my focus list here. And I'll give you another name that's similar. Uh, TEM, pretty similar. Getting real tight in here. It is

1:06:01 still in a squeeze. It's trying to squeeze out back in. This is what I'm keeping an eye on. Um, let's keep going through some charts here and yeah, keep giving me questions or anything else that you'd like. Uh, I I I do like doing these trade review things. Maybe um what we can do is I can get uh some people to ch send in trades that they've done and we can go over them live. And what we could even do is I could you could tell me like the time and I could like I could trade them on the back tester and show you how I would trade them in real time. We could do something like that. So uh lots of cool

1:06:46 options there. But I think these uh actual trading examples are really fun for me to do and really uh just full of little tidbits here and there. So if you guys like that kind of style, let me know and be happy to do that. Let's go through some more charts here. AMBA AMBA's got that squeeze going. Let's take a look at it. So, it's not like uh A+ squeeze setup for me just because like kind of elevated because you can say, hey, this is a support level flip there. That's all well and good. I got to zoom out to get a better feel for this chart. Okay, that's better. What do they do? Amberella electronic technology. Okay.

1:07:39 Tight weekly flag. Ballinger bands are pushing out. That's not like really a weekly squeeze though. It's just like one little tick. That's a weekly squeeze and it pushes out of it nicely. Um, we can keep an eye on this one. What I think we're seeing is it's a little bit I'm I'm having a hard time with this one. I think as long as it holds the 20, it could be valid and good, but we need a few more days of this kind of price

…