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0:01 Turning to trade now and Donald Trump has doubled tariffs on Indian products to 50%. He says New Delhi's business dealings with Moscow are helping fund the Kremlin's war against Ukraine. But India accuses the US and Europe of themselves importing Russian goods while punishing India. Millions of jobs in India's government industry are at risk. US tariffs on Indian exports are now among the highest worldwide. Its key industries are vulnerable in deals with Washington. Duties on India's neighbors have been mostly slashed. They got a rate below us makes it very difficult for the buyer or customers to come to India. Why? They should have a
0:47 really good reason why should they should come to India. The bromance between Donald Trump and Narendra Modi is over. No long awaited free trade deal. Instead, more and more tariffs. The US is pressuring India to stop doing business with Russia. The Trump administration uh has taken the transactional approach to an extreme with India. Uh not looking at trying to build a relationship. President Trump is taking a softer line with China, trying to get some overall deal than he is with India, which is supposed to be a friend and ally as opposed to an adversary like China. India has said it's refusing to budge
1:33 and will keep buying Russian oil. The political row will take its toll. Here at the Farida Group, half the products go to the United States. up to business and my business is concerned, my footwear and leather business is concerned, it is going to be a big uh it will affect us badly. India has profited from cheap Russian oil, cutting energy costs and inflation. It imported just2% from Moscow before its war with Ukraine. That figure is now closer to 40%. But that could now cost jobs and its relationship with the US. Let's discuss this further with Abigail Hall, associate professor in economics at the University of Tampa in Florida.
2:21 It's good to have you with us. Um, just recently the two countries India and uh the US were describing each other as very very good friends and suddenly we have this change. How does this news alter this economic relationship? So this is certainly not good news for USI India relations. Um and certainly there's a lot potentially on the table to discuss here. India has a very difficult position of historically trying to balance Washington, Moscow and Beijing. And this definitely adds a lot of tension to what as you mentioned has historically been a uh a good relationship between the US and Indian governments.
3:07 India's now facing a combined 50% tariff um which is more than what chi what's been uh imposed on China. China actually imports more Russian oil. So what do you make of this discrepancy? Yeah. So the Indian government has pointed out this seeming hypocrisy coming out of Washington for the reasons you've just described, highlighting that not only does China import oil from Russia, um, but the United States also imports a variety of different goods and services from Russia to the tune of about $3.5 billion a year. And so you have this really interesting just dichotomy of trying to uh figure out exactly what's going on. But it's very clear here that the Trump administration
3:53 is attempting to leverage India um to try to pressure the Russian government to end the war in Ukraine. I mean, India seems to see a benefit in in the trade it's having with Moscow. So, could the US actions actually push India closer to to to the Russians? It's certainly possible. And to be very clear, the US government was actually very supportive of India's increase in its purchases of oil from Russia. So an increase from about 0.1 to about 1.9 million barrels a day between 2021 and 2024. And so this about face where you now have the US government far from
4:38 being supportive of this move to keep oil prices stable is now really withdrawing from that. And so it certainly is an interesting time for us to look at both economically as well as politically. And can these tariffs actually achieve their intended goal of um pressuring Russia and sort of achieving uh this this end goal in in the war in Ukraine? So this kind of secondary pressure is something that we've seen elsewhere. So the United States has levied tariffs on countries for instance that buy oil from the government of Venezuela. And one of the things that we know in looking at how sanctions, and this is effectively using tariffs as a sanction, is that they can have some efficacy, but it's
5:25 certainly not the silver bullet that the Trump administration or any administration, frankly, is hoping for. And to the extent that sanctions are effective or these trade policies are effective, it certainly wouldn't be overnight and ultimately it's at the expense of your everyday people and not the individuals holding the political authority. Right. I was just going to go then to the next that point you raised about how this impacts consumers and businesses in the UK. How how do these tariffs hit them? Sorry, in the US. in terms so the US or the UK tariffs regardless of where they are are attacks on foreign goods and services. So if these tariffs
6:12 are implemented against India then what you would see is that estimates that it would impact about 50 to 55% of all goods exported from India to the US and so those goods and services would become more expensive. So things like textiles for example are going to become a lot more expensive. This is also going to make it a lot more difficult for Indian producers to compete in the US market which is a very large it's India's in fact largest trading partner. We appreciate your thoughts Abigail Hall that's uh associate professor in economics at the University of Tampa in Florida. Thank you very much for your time. My pleasure.
