Brief Summary
This video provides MMA betting advice for UFC 325, including a lock of the week, most confident picks, favourite underdogs, DGEN props, and parlays. The expert highlights specific fighters and matchups, offering detailed analysis and predictions.
- Oban Elliott is the lock of the week.
- Key fighters include Billy Alakana, Quillian Salkild, and Cam Ralston.
- Several parlays are suggested, ranging from safe to high-risk.
Lock of the Week: Oban Elliott
Oban Elliott is the lock of the week at plus 114. The speaker spent extra time researching this fight, initially booked in September but now happening in January, giving Elliott more preparation time. Stylistically, the matchup favours Elliott, who is expected to have sharper stand-up and better punching power than Jonathan McKeliff. McKeliff's past knockout loss to Adon Bates is noted, and while McKeliff has decent striking and jiu-jitsu, Elliott's speed and counter-punching ability are expected to be key. The speaker anticipates Elliott landing significant shots and potentially securing a knockout.
Most Confident Picks
Billy Alakana is a confident pick against Junior Taffa, who is described as a one-dimensional fighter with overrated stand-up and weak BJJ. Alakana has a strong wrestling game and decent striking, making a submission victory likely at plus 175. Quillian Salkild at minus 900 is also a lock to win against Jamie Malarkey, with a knockout win at minus 140 being the most sensible bet. Cam Ralston at minus 360 is expected to defeat Cody Brundage, showcasing his striking and grappling skills, with a potential submission win at plus 210. Benois Saint-Denis at minus 350 is predicted to finish Dan Hooker, exploiting Hooker's defensive grappling weaknesses, with a submission win at plus 150 being a strong possibility.
Additional Confident Pick: PhysV vs. Ruffy Over 2.5 Rounds
The over two and a half rounds in the PhysV versus Ruffy fight is highlighted as a confident pick at minus 170. The speaker anticipates a technical three-round affair, with Ruffy's striking precision and PhysV's wrestling skills potentially cancelling each other out. Ruffy's training with Volkanovski is expected to improve his performance, leading to a hard-fought decision.
Favourite Underdogs
Diego Lopez at plus 125 is a favourite underdog to beat Alexander Volkanovski. The speaker believes Lopez can make adjustments from their previous fight, cutting off the cage and landing more damaging shots. A Lopez knockout at plus 325 or a decision win at plus 525 are both considered viable. Aaron Tao at plus 105 is another underdog pick against Namry Batar in a Road to UFC fight. Tao's experience and physical strength are expected to give him an edge in a slugfest, potentially leading to a decision win.
DGEN Props
The speaker lists several DGEN (degen) props: Billy Alakana by submission at plus 195, Quillian Salkild by KO at minus 130, Mauricio Ruffy by decision at plus 230, and Oban Elliott by KO at plus 650. These are considered riskier but potentially rewarding bets.
Parlays to Play
The video provides numerous parlay suggestions, ranging from safer options to more high-risk plays:
- Safe Parlays: Alakana and Ralston at minus 121, or Saint-Denis and Alakana at minus 119.
- Safe City Parlay: Saint-Denis and Ruffy/Fiziev over 2.5 rounds at plus 106.
- Confident Parlay: Saint-Denis, Alakana, and Ralston to win at plus 137.
- Higher Odds Parlays: Alakana and Fiziev/Ruffy over 2.5 at plus 125, Oban Elliott and Billy Alakana at plus 205.
- Four-Leg Parlays: Saint-Denis, Alakana, Ralston, and Fiziev/Ruffy over 2.5 at plus 277, Elliott, Alakana, and Saint-Denis at plus 296, Elliott and Lopez at plus 377, Elliott, Alakana, Saint-Denis, and Ralston at plus 409.
- Parlays with Props: Salkild by knockout and Billy Alakana by submission at plus 422, Salkild KO, Alakana sub, and Ralston inside the distance at plus 690.
- High-Risk Parlays: Saint-Denis, Alakana, Ralston, Fiziev/Ruffy over 2.5, and Elliott at plus 710, Alakana sub and Ruffy decision at plus 947, Elliott, Salkild by knockout, and Alakana by sub at plus 1,022, Alakana sub, Salkild KO, and Mauricio Ruffy to win by a decision at plus 1,759, Alakana sub, Salkild KO, Ruffy decision, and Oban Elliott at plus 3,884.
The speaker advises caution with Road to UFC fights and encourages viewers to do their own research before placing bets.
