5 strong breakout stocks after years of consolidation in this market?

0:04 Sometimes the most interesting phase of the market happens when the index remains muted. But some selected stocks start giving a breakout after long consolidation. Like in 2026, Nifty 50 is down 6.5% but some stocks are showing clear strength on the charts. Today we will see 5 such stocks where after 1-2 years of consolidation and in one case breakout has come after 8 years of base. you must be wondering why we have selected only these 5 out of so many breakouts and how to systematically identify such high probability setups. For this, look at a simple screening approach. Market cap greater than 3000 CR Stock down from 52 week high should be less than 10% Current price

0:51 greater than 50 and 200 daily moving average and 50 daily moving average should be greater than 200 daily moving average This gives you a filtered list. After that, manual breakout tracking becomes important. Keep in mind that after strong consolidation, breakout often indicates a high probability setup. But not only charts, business model, growth outlook and key risk are also important. So let's start. Our first company is NLC India. If we look at the chart, NLC India has given a multi-year breakout by crossing the high of 2008. Now let's understand the business. NLC India is a mine-to-power company. It extracts lignite and coal and then generates power around that ecosystem and sells it. And now the company is aggressively building scale in renewable energy. Today, the company has 30.1 MTPA lignite

1:40 and 20 MTPA coal mining capacity, which is planned to increase to 41.35 MTPA and 62 MTPA by 2030. Along with that, 5.9 GW thermal and 1.8 GW renewable capacity are both targeted to scale to 10 GW by 2030. This means that the business is not just a single engine story, but is making a growth narrative by combining mining, thermal and renewable. If we look at the numbers of CapEx, the company has given a CapEx roadmap of around 1.16 lakh CR by 2030, in which heavy investment is planned on green energy, thermal and mining. Now let's look at the quick point of fundamentals. In the last 5 years, the company's sales have grown by about 1.5 times and the profit by about 2 times. But it is

2:28 also important to understand the quarterly trend. NLC India's sales show either flat, down or strong growth because here revenue largely lignite coal production per generation, plant utilization and project ramp up. If production and generation are strong, then growth is good. But if there are mine issues, plant downtime or project delays, then sales can be weak. Margins are also volatile due to this reason. Business capital is intensive. Fixed costs are high, so when plants run efficiently, fixed costs spread and margins improve. Now understand the risks. First, if land acquisition or mine execution is delayed, then lignite supply and generation can both be impacted. The second risk is debt-funded capex. Due to this, the company's debt-to-equity ratio is above 1x, which indicates relatively high borrowing. Yes,

3:18 with time, it is gradually reducing, but still the leverage level is elevated. That is why investors should keep track of this metric closely. The second company is Glenmark Pharmaceuticals. This company works in the segment of branded generics, plus generics, plus specialty or innovation. Their core focus is on three major diseases. Dermatology which is skin, respiratory which is lungs, and oncology which is cancer. In simple language, they sell branded medicines in India and emerging markets. Whereas in the US and Europe, it is mainly a generics business. Generics means that after the end of the patent, the same medicine is made. And brand generics are the drugs that are sold with their brand name, like Dolo or Croson. But in the last 10 years, the company's sales CHER was only 7%,

4:06 which seems weak. The reason for this was that the US generics market slowed down and the competition increased a lot. On top of that, due to FDA issues and plant observations, new product launches also delayed. But recently, the stock has given a breakout of its all-time high. Now the question is, why is the stock so strong? The answer is simple. The market prices the past, not the future. Glenmark is gradually shifting towards generic or specialty or branded business, where margins and growth are both better. The target of management is to get more than 70% of their revenue from branded markets by 2030. Management expects that in the next 5 years, their emerging market business will grow more than 20% from CGR, in which the launches of 7-8 innovative products will

4:52 play a big role. Now listen to the guidance of the management for the financial year 2027. So, Nigel, FY27, we are guiding for a margin of our core business close to 23%. And we have a good pipeline. So India, if I go by market, I think India is a very strong franchisee. We continue to outperform the market. We launched GFB NAB, then Trimimra, Brookings have been introduced in the market. So there are enough new products in the market which we launched. So India will continue to grow 10-15% for us. For FY27, EBITDA margin guidance was given at 23%, which was historically 18-19%. Looking at the company's risk and challenges, in recent years, Glenmark has received US FDA warning letters on Goa, Indore and Baddi plants, highlighting

5:42 manufacturing irregularities. These repeated issues indicate gaps in management oversight and quality systems. The third company is the one that manages the entire flow of India's export-import from factory to final touchpoint through ships, ports, trains, warehouses and trucks integrated network. This is Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone. Its stock has given an all-time high breakout after a consolidation of about 2 years. Now let's look at the business. Adani Ports is India's largest private port operator. with 28% market share. The company operates 15 ports in India. Apart from this, the company also manages 4 international ports in Sri Lanka, Israel, Tanzania and Australia. In the last 5 years, the company's sales have grown by 2.4x and profit by 2x. Profit growth has been slightly lower than sales growth because the

6:33 margins were weak in this period. If we analyze the recent results, sales increased by 24% in 9 months ended financial year 26 and remained at around 28,000 CR. This strong growth has come due to high double digit growth in their 4 business pillars- Domestic Ports, International, Marine and Logistics. Also, EBITDA grew 20% year-on-year and remained 16,832 CR and EBITDA margins remained around 60% range. If we look at the growth outlook, the company's target is to handle 1 billion tonnes of cargo by 2030. The present capacity is 653 million metric tonnes. Management has given guidance that by FY29, they will double their revenue and reach 65,500 CR. On the basis of its guidance, revenue CAGR reaches 21% from FY25-29. Investors should keep

7:22 track of this. Let's look at the risks and challenges. Their business is directly linked to global trade. Issues like the Red Sea Crisis and Middle East conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz can disrupt ship routes. which can affect their liquid or container cargo volumes. A key risk for the company is that due to capital-intensive nature, it constantly needs high capex, which causes the risk of increasing cash flows, pay pressure and debt levels. The fourth company is Torrent Park. The company has recently given a breakout of its one-year consolidation. Electricity ecosystem mainly consists of three parts. Generating power, then passing power through large transmission lines to the discoms and finally distributing it to the

8:09 household meter. The company covers the entire value chain. The company mainly delivers direct electricity to more than 4.2 million customers in places like Ahmedabad, Surat, Bivandi and Agra. In the last 5 years, the company's sales and profits have grown by 2.4x. If we analyze the recent results, sales declined by 1% and remained at 22.56 CR at the end of the 9 months and EBITDA increased by 2% year-on-year and remained at 4,644 CR. Such a weak growth was the reason for the slowdown in the diamond and textile sectors. Industrial power demand in regions like Surat and Dadra-Nagar-Habeli was low. If we look at the growth outlook, the company is developing a 1.6 gigawatt ultra-supercritical coal plant by capping Rs.22,000 crores in Madhya Pradesh. whose tenure is 25 years. The company is

8:58 developing a pumped hydro pipeline of 8.4 GW in Maharashtra and UP, which has 3 GW under construction. 2 GW of which is tied up with Maharashtra, which will start the fixed annual revenue of 1,680 CR by October 28. Now let's see the risk. Gas-based plants and merchant power profits depend on the global supply chain. Gas availability is at risk of disruption due to the Middle East conflict, which could impact profitability. 5. Data Patterns This stock has given a breakout after a strong consolidation of 2 years. Now let's see if business fundamentals also support the strength of the stock. Let's understand business first. Imagine a fighter jet or missile. Its outer body is different, but its

9:44 brain i.e. electronics such as radars, radios and electronic warfare systems are critical. Here comes the data pattern. patterns which makes defense and aerospace electronics where everything from design to manufacturing and testing is in-house. Government or defense PSUs like DRDO give them a requirement. On the basis of that requirement, company designs and manufactures radar, electronic warfare systems and aircraft electronics. You can see the revenue break up in this chart. In the last 5 years, the company's sales have grown by 3x and profit by 4x. Let's analyze the recent results. In 9 months, sales increased by 86% and came to 580. With that, EBITDA grew by 42%

10:30 and came to 178. However, EBITDA margins fell by 40% last year and came to 30.6%. The primary reason for the margins drop was the delivery of a 180 CR low margin contract in Q2. The management took this order on a competitive price keeping in mind the long-term business opportunities and future scale. Let's see the company's growth outlook. As of Q3, they have a order of 1,868 CR. which is diversified in production and development contracts. This order book is 262% of the financial year 25 revenues. Management has clarified that in the next 2-3 years, they are targeting a revenue growth of 20-25%. Now let's understand the company-specific risk. For any company, it is critical to effectively convert net profit into cash because long-term sustainability depends on cash flows. In the case

11:21 of data patterns, the cumulative cash flow from operations was 137 CR in the last 5 years, while the net profit was 678 CR in the same period. This indicates that the cash realization was relatively weak in comparison to reported profits. We understand the main reason for weak cash realization. The key customer base of the company is government entities, where the payment cycles are structurally longer. This is why receivables are consistently high. The table also shows a meaningful contribution as a percentage of receivables and inventory revenue. High receivables and inventory levels create pressure on the cash conversion cycle. In FY25, the cash conversion cycle was 618 days, which reflects the capital lock-in. So the overall idea is simple. The coming breakouts after long consolidation are most interesting

12:09 when there is a strong business narrative behind them. Now tell us in the comments which of these 5 stocks do you think is the strongest breakout? And do you look at the chart first or the business first? We remind you that these videos are not financial advice. Before investing, do your own research. See you in the next

12:55 video. Bye-bye. Take care.