Brief Summary
This report analyzes historical data from 1973 to 2026, focusing on how specific stocks perform during oil crises. It identifies seven types of stocks that consistently surge during these periods due to supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and increased fear. The report also provides insights on how to leverage this historical pattern for investment strategies, depending on the anticipated duration and intensity of the crisis.
- Seven specific stocks surge during oil crises.
- Oil majors and oil services consistently win.
- Defense stocks benefit from geopolitical triggers.
- Gold serves as a crisis hedge, especially when interest rates are stable or falling.
- The S&P 500 typically declines during oil crises.
The 7 Stocks
Seven specific stocks tend to increase in value during oil crises. These include: ExxonMobil (XOM), which historically benefits from rising oil prices; Chevron (CVX), a partner to ExxonMobil with similar gains during crises; ConocoPhillips (COP), a pure-play exploration company that captures upside from crude spikes; Schlumberger/SLB, which provides essential technology and services for oil drilling; Halliburton, a competitor to SLB in oilfield services; Lockheed Martin (LMT), which benefits from increased defense spending during geopolitical crises; and Gold, a traditional crisis hedge that performs well when interest rates are stable or falling.
The Scorecard: 6 Crises, Same Winners
An analysis of six oil crises from 1973 to 2026 reveals consistent patterns in stock performance. Oil majors typically see gains of +40-85%, while oil services also experience increases. Defense stocks consistently rise during periods of geopolitical tension, and gold tends to increase in value, except when rising interest rates provide competition. In contrast, the S&P 500 generally declines during these crises.
The 2026 Crisis: Where Are We Now?
In 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran led to a surge in Brent crude prices and a low for the S&P 500. Stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM), Oil Services ETF (OIH), Baker Hughes (BKR), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Gold (GLD) have shown positive performance. Renewable energy stocks have surprisingly declined due to higher inflation and reduced chances of interest rate cuts.
How to Use This
To use this information, consider the likely progression of the crisis. If escalation is expected, oil majors and oil services stocks are historically strong choices. For hedging, gold is effective when interest rates are stable. If a quick resolution is anticipated, consider the 1990 Gulf War playbook, where the broad market rallied upon resolution.
The Bottom Line
Oil crises follow predictable patterns, with specific stocks benefiting from supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and fear. The duration of the crisis is the key uncertainty. Investors should focus on positioning based on historical patterns rather than attempting to predict the crisis's outcome.
