Analysis: India’s “Strategic Patience” | Taiwan  Talks

Analysis: India’s “Strategic Patience” | Taiwan Talks

Brief Summary

This video discusses the recent war games conducted by Belarus and Russia, with participation from India, Iran, and Bangladesh, and observers from the US, Turkey, and Hungary. It also examines the complex relationship between the US and India, particularly in light of Donald Trump's recent comments and actions towards India, despite the underlying strategic need for cooperation to counter China. The discussion touches on India's historical ties with Russia, its strategic calculations, and the broader context of wartime buyers of Russian fossil fuels, highlighting paradoxes in the stance of NATO countries.

  • War games signaling and geopolitical tensions.
  • India's strategic balancing act between Russia, China, and the US.
  • Donald Trump's approach to India and the underlying strategic imperatives.
  • Paradoxes in the global response to Russian fossil fuel purchases.

Belarus-Russia War Games

Belarus and Russia conducted war games with the participation of India, Iran, and Bangladesh. Observers from the US, Turkey, and Hungary also attended, while Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania declined. The stated aim of the exercises, according to Russian and Belarusian state agencies, was to defend the Union State, emphasizing a defensive rather than offensive posture. However, these exercises are viewed with some skepticism, recalling the Zapad 2021 exercises that preceded the invasion of Ukraine. The unofficial aim was likely a show of force, signaling Russia's continued manpower capabilities despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, and included nuclear weapons signaling, particularly concerning the movement of nuclear-capable missiles into Belarus, causing concern among NATO countries like Poland and Lithuania.

India's Participation and Strategic Alignment

The participation of India in the war games was not entirely surprising, given the divergence in stances towards Russia between European countries, the UK, and the US, compared to India. India has traditionally maintained a strong relationship with Russia in security affairs. The ruling party of India, the BJP, relies on strategic triangles involving China, specifically Japan-America-India and Russia-India-China, necessitating Russia's involvement to balance China. Russia, or the USSR, played a key role in India's nation-building, particularly in industry, technology, and weapons, with India modeling its economic planning on the Soviet model. During times when the US backed Pakistan, Russia supported India, further solidifying their bond. While India did participate, the contingent was reduced from 200 in Zapad 2021 to 75 in the current exercise.

US-India Relations and Trump's Comments

Donald Trump called Narendra Modi to wish him a happy birthday, expressing positive sentiments and acknowledging Modi's support in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. Modi reciprocated, affirming commitment to the India-US partnership and supporting initiatives for a peaceful resolution. However, this positive exchange contrasts with Trump's earlier public insults and actions, including the imposition of 50% tariffs and suggesting the EU slap 100% tariffs on India. Trump had previously stated indifference to India's relationship with Russia, even suggesting they could take their "dead economies down together." Despite these comments, analysts believe there won't be a fundamental worsening of the bilateral relationship between New Delhi and Washington DC, as the US administration needs India to counter China, a long-term strategic imperative.

Strategic Patience and Global Paradoxes

Trump's behavior is seen as a tactic to achieve his goals, using harsh language to pressure Russia on war terms with Ukraine. The Indian response is characterized by "strategic patience," understanding Trump's emotional approach while recognizing the core need for US-India cooperation to address China. India is not the only country buying Russian fossil fuels; China is a much larger buyer, and even NATO countries collectively import more oil from Russia than China. This presents a paradox, as NATO is supposedly helping Ukraine while its members continue to fund Russia through oil purchases. Despite this, India faced a 25% penalty for buying Russian oil, leading to their strategic patience in navigating the complex geopolitical landscape.

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