Brief Summary
This article examines the relationship between geopolitics and technology, arguing that technology is a primary driver of geopolitical change. It discusses how governments use "geotech statecraft" to control technology dissemination for national security and explores the limitations of these strategies in the context of US-China competition. The article concludes by suggesting alternative approaches for the US, emphasizing innovation and strategic deal-making.
- Technology is a key driver of geopolitical change, altering the meaning of power and geography.
- Geotech statecraft involves governments manipulating technology dissemination to enhance national security.
- US efforts to control technology dissemination to China face challenges due to private sector involvement and incentives for alternative innovation.
- Alternative strategies for the US include focusing on domestic innovation and pragmatic deal-making with China.
1. Technology: The "Great Residual" of International Relations
Technology is presented as a crucial, often overlooked, factor in understanding geopolitical shifts. Traditional international relations theories often struggle to explain change, with technology acting as a catalyst for altering the meaning of power and geography. Historical examples, such as the impact of synthetic rubber and synthetic ammonia on global power dynamics, illustrate how technological advancements can reshape geopolitical landscapes. The shift from coal to oil in naval power also demonstrates technology's role in creating strategic resources and reshaping geopolitical interests.
2. Geotech Statecraft: Controlling the Dissemination of Technology
Governments employ "geotech statecraft" to manage the national security implications of technology by intentionally manipulating its dissemination across borders. This involves controlling technology production, exports, and the movement of skilled workers. Hegemonic powers may restrict technology dissemination to maintain their dominance, while challengers seek to acquire technologies to disrupt the existing order. The "panopticon effect," where control over information flows provides critical knowledge, is also a key consideration in geotech statecraft, exemplified by historical instances like British control over global trade data and the Snowden Affair.
3. Technology and US-Chinese Great Power Competition
Geotech statecraft plays a significant role in the current competition between the US and China. The US has developed tools to control technology dissemination, particularly targeting China's AI capabilities. Measures include export controls on AI chips and cloud computing, as well as lists of critical and emerging technologies subject to future controls. The US aims to maintain a significant lead in key technologies, employing a "small yard, high fence" strategy to limit the spread of sensitive technologies.
4. Limits of Geotech Statecraft
Despite its potential, geotech statecraft faces limitations. Tech innovation is primarily driven by the private sector, which may not align with government agendas. Companies often find ways to circumvent export controls, diminishing their effectiveness. Controls on technology dissemination can incentivize the targeted countries to develop their own alternatives, potentially accelerating their innovation. Additionally, geotech statecraft can be costly, leading to economic losses and increased inflation. The long-term impact may be a "de-dollarization" of technology, as countries seek alternatives to US-controlled systems.
5. Great Power Competition Beyond Tech Dissemination Control
Alternative strategies for the US in its competition with China include focusing on domestic innovation ("running faster") and engaging in pragmatic deal-making. The US should renew its focus on innovation and international cooperation, rather than relying solely on tech dissemination control and unilateral actions. Future administrations should establish a policy framework that distinguishes between redlines, managed competition, and cooperation with China, using tech dissemination controls strategically for achievable conditions and in consultation with allies.
