Brief Summary
This video provides a comprehensive market analysis for July 17, 2025, and forecasts potential market movements for the next trading day, July 18, 2025. It covers various factors influencing the stock market, including global market trends, economic data releases, FII/DII data, and technical analysis of Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty. The video also highlights important news updates, company results, and potential impacts on different sectors.
- Market sentiment was weak with Nifty 50 closing down.
- Important economic data from the US and Europe were released.
- India's response to trade and tariff issues was discussed.
- Technical analysis of Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty was provided to predict future movements.
Market Overview and Analyst Views
The market sentiment was weak, with Nifty 50 falling by 0.40% to close at 25,111 points after breaking 25,200. Analysts suggest that for an upward movement, Nifty 50 needs to break and hold above the 25,260 level. A support level is expected around 24,900 to 24,920. Another analyst indicated that breaking the 25,000 support level could lead to further bearish momentum. Bank Nifty held its 20-day EMA.
Economic Data and Reports
U.S. retail sales data was positive, exceeding market estimates and recovering from a previous drop of 0.9% in May with a 0.6% increase in June. The European Consumer Price Index (CPI) data matched forecasts at 2%. Citigroup downgraded Indian equities to neutral due to high valuations, while upgrading China and South Korea due to improved company earnings and reasonable valuations.
Trade Agreements and Market Positions
An agreement between India and the US is expected within the month, and a trade pack between India and the UK may be signed within a week. According to a Bank of America survey, India has slipped to the fourth position among favorite Asian stock markets, with Japan now in the top position, followed by Taiwan and South Korea.
PM Modi's Visit to Bihar and Trade Tariffs
PM Modi is scheduled to visit Bihar, announcing projects worth over ₹7,000 crore, which could impact sectors like railways and roads. Updates on trade and tariffs include potential 200% tariffs on the pharma sector by the U.S., as previously mentioned by Trump.
India's Response to NATO and US
India responded strongly to NATO's warning about trade with Russia, emphasizing that securing the energy needs of its people is a top priority. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, stated that India would buy oil from wherever it deems fit. India's Oil Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, noted that cutting off Russian oil supplies could raise oil prices to $130-$140 per barrel, highlighting that India and China's discounted purchases benefit the world economy.
Company Results and Market Status
Several companies, including Wipro, HDFC AMC, and LTI Mindtree, have released their results. Key companies like Atul Limited, Bandhan Bank, Hindustan Zinc, Indian Bank, and Reliance Industries are set to release their results tomorrow. The U.S. market is showing a positive response, with the Dow Jones up by 0.27% and the NASDAQ composite touching an all-time high.
Wipro's Results and IT Sector Recovery
Wipro's results were decent, leading to a 3.21% increase in its ADR version, potentially signaling a recovery in the IT sector. Axis Bank's results were poor, while HDFC Bank's ADR version appears stable. HDFC Bank is also set to release its results and announce bonuses the day after tomorrow.
Gift Nifty and FII/DII Data
Gift Nifty is currently at 25,168 points, about 56 points above Nifty's closing, which is considered reasonable given the time left for future expiration. FIIs sold shares worth ₹3,694 crore, while DIIs bought shares worth ₹2,820 crore. The sell-off by FIIs was mainly in the banking and IT sectors.
Market Analysis and Predictions
For Nifty 50, holding the 25,250 level is crucial for further upside movement. The most critical resistance is at 25,250, and immediate support is at 25,000, aligning with the 20-day EMA. For Bank Nifty, the support level is at 56,700, and resistance is at 57,000.
