Brief Summary
This video discusses the key aspects of U.S. presidential election campaigns, highlighting the factors that influence their outcomes. It covers the structure of nominating campaigns, the significance of the electoral college in general elections, and the impact of campaign strategies. The video emphasizes the importance of party loyalty, economic conditions, and campaign finance, while also examining the role of media coverage and voter turnout.
- U.S. presidential campaigns are expensive and lengthy, but outcomes often depend on factors beyond candidates' control, such as voters' partisanship.
- The presidential nominating process involves primary elections and caucuses across states, with candidates competing for delegates to win the party's nomination.
- General election strategies are heavily influenced by the electoral college, with candidates focusing on battleground states and utilizing televised ads and get-out-the-vote efforts.
Introduction to U.S. Election Campaigns
The session will focus on U.S. election campaigns, particularly presidential elections, building on previous discussions of congressional campaigns. It will examine the background influences affecting presidential campaign outcomes, the structure of presidential nominating campaigns, and the nature of the general election campaign, with a focus on the electoral college. U.S. presidential campaigns are expensive and intense, but their outcomes often depend more on factors beyond the candidates' control.
Factors Influencing Presidential Campaigns
Voters' partisanship is a significant factor in presidential campaigns, with most voters already aligned with a party before the campaign begins. Historically, some parties have had such a strong advantage that their nominee was almost guaranteed to win. Today, the parties are more evenly matched, with recent presidential elections having an average margin of victory of less than five percent. The number of swing voters has been declining, with estimates ranging from five to ten percent of voters.
Voter Turnout and Enthusiasm
Election turnout in U.S. presidential elections is relatively low, with only about 60 percent of potential voters participating. Candidates can influence turnout through get-out-the-vote efforts, but not significantly. Enthusiasm differences between partisans can also impact election outcomes. In the 2016 presidential campaign, Republicans had a higher level of intensity due to being out of power for eight years. The 2016 election was decided in the electoral college, with Donald Trump winning despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
Economic and Foreign Policy Issues
Voters' sense of the country's economic track matters significantly. A good economy boosts the nominee of the party in control of the White House, while a poor economy creates trouble for that nominee. Since 1976, three incumbent presidents—Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush—lost their reelection bids due to weak or deteriorating economies. Foreign policy issues, particularly wars that have turned out badly, can also hurt the candidate of the party holding the presidency.
Primary Elections and Caucuses
The United States has primary elections, requiring candidates to compete in 50 state contests. States can choose to hold a primary or a caucus. In a primary, voters cast ballots, while in a caucus, voters meet and discuss candidates before voting. Caucuses have lower turnout due to being more time-consuming. States use these contests to determine which candidates' delegates will represent them at the national convention, where the party's nominee is formally chosen.
Evolution of the Nominating Process
The current primary system was created after the 1968 presidential election, in which Hubert Humphrey won the Democratic nomination without entering a single primary. Party reformers changed the rules, requiring states to choose delegates through a primary or caucus. This change has created a more open nominating process, accessible to any politician with voter support, except when an incumbent president seeks reelection. Nominating races have since attracted a large field of contenders.
Phases of the Presidential Nominating Process
The presidential nominating process has three phases: fundraising and televised debates, state contests (starting with Iowa and New Hampshire), and the national convention. The Iowa caucus is followed by the New Hampshire primary, the South Carolina primary, and the Nevada caucus. After these four states vote, other states hold their contests, often culminating in Super Tuesday. The parties then hold their conventions to formally choose the nominee.
Predicting the Party Nomination
A fast start in Iowa or New Hampshire is important, but the better predictor of who will win the party nomination is the candidate's position before the first votes are cast. This pre-Iowa period is known as the invisible primary, where candidates build name recognition and secure funding. Name recognition is critical, helping candidates withstand setbacks and pick up votes. Fundraising is also a key part of the invisible primary, with the news media using money as an indicator of which candidates to take seriously.
The Importance of Early Money and Media Coverage
A large amount of early money enables candidates to spend heavily in early contests and buy early TV advertising. The candidate who wins the money game in the year before the Iowa caucus nearly always gets the nomination. Donald Trump in 2016 was an exception, as he received so much attention from the news media that he had less need for campaign funds. While the invisible primary is crucial, candidates must still campaign effectively when voting begins.
General Election Strategies and the Electoral College
In the general election, strategies are determined by the electoral college. Each state has electors equal to its representation in Congress, and the candidate who gets a majority of the state's electoral votes wins the presidency. Most states apply the unit rule, where the candidate with the most votes in the state gets all of its electoral votes. Candidates focus on battleground or swing states that could be won by either side.
Campaign Spending and Advertising
U.S. presidential campaigns are costly, with candidates raising and spending hundreds of millions of dollars. Most of the money goes to televised ads in battleground states, with most ads being negative attack ads. Candidates' media strategists believe it's easier to persuade someone to vote against an opponent than to vote for their candidate. Attack ads also get the attention of the news media, which amplify the message.
Targeting Voters and Get-Out-The-Vote Efforts
Candidates increasingly target their supporters to get them to the polls, as the number of persuadable voters has declined due to party polarization. George W. Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2012 effectively employed this turnout strategy. Obama's 2012 campaign built a massive targeting and get-out-the-vote organization, using volunteers and mobile apps to identify and contact voters.
Conclusion
The session concludes by reiterating the factors outside the campaign's control, such as voter loyalty and key issues, affect the outcome. Rule changes after the 1968 election altered the presidential nominating process, requiring candidates to compete in state primaries and caucuses. A fast start in Iowa or New Hampshire is important, but building name recognition and a strong war chest before the first contest is even more critical. General election strategies are shaped by the electoral college, with efforts aimed at battleground states. Presidential campaigns involve huge sums of money spent on televised ads and get-out-the-vote efforts, which have become increasingly important as the number of persuadable voters has declined.
