Brief Summary
This Wire Talks episode features Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, discussing the recent deterioration in Indo-US relations under the Trump administration. Joshi suggests that Trump's transactional and "America First" worldview, coupled with India's lack of economic leverage, has led to a series of adverse actions by the US. He also touches upon India's strategic autonomy, its relationship with Russia and China, and the need for a course correction in its foreign policy.
- Trump's transactional nature and "America First" policy are key factors in the deteriorating relationship.
- India lacks economic leverage compared to China, making it more susceptible to being "bullied" by the US.
- India needs to maintain a low-key approach, make its red lines clear, and strengthen relationships with other countries.
Introduction
The discussion begins by highlighting the traditionally stable relationship between India and the US, which has recently faced challenges under the Trump administration. Despite initial expectations and friendly rhetoric, the US has taken several steps that negatively affect India, including imposing heavy tariffs, revoking the Iran sanctions waiver for the Chabahar port, and increasing fees for H1B visas. The conversation aims to explore the reasons behind this shift and its implications for the two countries.
Trump's Worldview and India's Position
Manoj Joshi characterizes the Trump presidency as unique and highly active, noting Trump's tendency to challenge established norms and institutions. He argues that India should not have expected a completely normal relationship to continue, as Trump's worldview does not prioritize India. Trump, being a businessman, is transactional and impressed by money, which puts India at a disadvantage due to its relative economic status compared to the US and China. Despite friendly remarks towards Modi, Trump's actions indicate a pattern of undermining India's interests.
Transactional Relationships: Pakistan vs. India
Joshi explains that Trump's outreach to Pakistan is also transactional, driven by business opportunities such as a crypto deal involving his family, Pakistan's offer to support him for a Nobel Prize, and the belief that Pakistan has significant oil reserves. Unlike Pakistan, India has not offered Trump anything that aligns with his personal interests or political agenda. The crackdown on H1B visas, for example, is a result of Trump's promise to his MAGA base to bring back jobs taken by foreigners.
Impact of US Decisions on India: H1B and Chabahar
The discussion shifts to the specific impacts of US decisions on India, particularly the H1B visa fee and the revocation of the Chabahar port waiver. Joshi clarifies that the H1B issue is not yet fully resolved and further restrictions could be implemented. The Chabahar waiver, granted in 2018 due to India's good relations with the US and the port's importance for accessing Afghanistan, allowed India to invest in and operate the port. The revocation of this waiver jeopardizes India's plans for trade and connectivity with Afghanistan and Central Asia, especially given Pakistan's blockade of overland trade routes.
The International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC)
Joshi explains that Chabahar is also linked to the INSTC, a multimodal transportation corridor project involving India, Russia, and Iran, aimed at facilitating trade between Mumbai and Central Asia, Russia, and Europe. While the INSTC was initially sidelined due to sanctions on Iran and limited trade with Russia, it has gained renewed importance as Russia seeks to shift its trade southwards following embargoes by European countries.
US Bullying and Geopolitical Strategy
Joshi asserts that Trump sees India as the weaker party and is more inclined to "bully" it compared to China, which has retaliated against US restrictions. He speculates that Trump aims to make a geopolitical deal with China, envisioning a world with spheres of influence where the US dominates the Western Hemisphere, Europe deals with Russia, and China manages Asia. This perspective explains Trump's actions in the Western Hemisphere, such as attempting to buy Greenland and recapture the Panama Canal.
India's Lack of Leverage and Strategic Response
India lacks the leverage that China possesses, as its trade and investment relationship with the US is more dependent. Unlike China's control over strategic minerals, India's exports to the US are not as critical. Joshi notes that India's strategy has been to give space to Trump and avoid direct confrontation, even when Trump has made unsubstantiated claims. He recounts an incident where Trump attempted to use Modi's visit to Washington D.C. to promote his own Nobel Peace Prize nomination, which Modi declined.
Personal Connect and Strategic Autonomy
Joshi believes that India overplayed the "personal connect" card with Trump, underestimating his transactional nature and lack of genuine regard for India. He emphasizes that Trump respects strong figures like Putin and Xi Jinping, while viewing India as lacking the wherewithal to offer him significant benefits. Joshi also touches upon the Saudi-Pakistan relationship, noting that India has managed its relations with Gulf countries reasonably well by tapping into their need for economic partners.
India's Strategic Options and Future Outlook
Looking ahead, Joshi suggests that India should develop its strategic autonomy and not be swayed by fickle friendships. While India has tilted too much towards the US in recent years, it needs to correct its course and strengthen relationships with Russia, Japan, the European Union, and other countries. He defines multi-alignment as non-alignment with fewer principles, reflecting the current global landscape where morality has diminished.
Conclusion: Navigating the Challenges
Joshi concludes that India needs to put its relationship with the US back on track, given its significant needs in terms of diaspora, exports, and geopolitical support. However, the current strategy should be to keep a low profile, make red lines clear, and wait for the Trump administration to change course or end its term. He acknowledges that more challenges and "punches" are likely in the near future, but India must focus on course correction and strengthening its relationships with other countries to navigate this difficult period.
