Full transcript of “Have silver miners crashed too far? Silver is at the lowest price in 6 days.”. Click a timestamp to open the video at that moment. Need another video? Use the YouTube transcript generator.
0:08 Hello dear friends. My name is Clive Thompson. Today is Sunday, February 1st, 2026. Last Friday, we saw an almighty collapse in the price of precious metals, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. Earlier today, I did a video talking about gold and gold miners and the question of whether it's a good time to buy them or not. And now today, I'm doing the video on silver and silver miners and is it a good time to buy the silver miners or not. But before we do that, I'd like to just dispel a rumor which has been circulating on the net. And the rumor was that JP Morgan had sold
0:57 all of its uh not sold, it had closed all of its short positions at the lowest price of the day, which is $7829. That rumor appears to have originated with what you're looking at on the m uh on the screen at the moment, which is a report from COMX. It's a regular kermix report showing the deliveries of silver which are taking place and this kind of report gets published every day. Um unfortunately I think a lot of people have got the wrong end of the stick. Um this particular uh image which is one circulating widely shows that JP Morgan took delivery of the silver underlying 633 contracts of of the February uh
1:46 maturity uh futures. Now they could have been doing that on behalf of themselves or they could have been doing it on behalf of one of their clients. But what it does not show is that they closed their short positions if they had any at all. Um or most likely this is simply a delivery um of uh silver on behalf of one of their clients who said I want to take delivery. Perhaps I'm a manufacturer. I need the silver for my manufacturing process. But even if it was JP Morgan who were closing their short position by uh well I mean it's not really closing a short position. What what we see is they're taking delivery of silver which
2:32 means they were long here. So they're not closing a short position. But even if they were even it was a closing of a short position. 633 contracts is about $250 million. um that's a drop in the ocean compared with their 54 billion uh annual profit. It's neither here nor there. And in any case, even if if if they were in some way, shape, or form closing their short position, what we're looking at is delivery of contracts under the February contract, delivery of silver under the February futures contract. What about March or April or May or June or and so on? uh it doesn't so it doesn't really tell us anything at all. So I don't know where why people have misinterpret this but it's they've got
3:19 it the wrong end and perhaps what I'll do I'll just have a look at the if I can get it up chatg GPT's interpretation of this. Let's get that up. Uh I got to go to new chat. Let's do let's try that. Yeah, I should be able to show you that, right? Let's bring that up. So, as you can see, I said in the light of what you uh see, actually, I said, please interpret this statement from COMX, and it says, great question, blah, blah, blah. This is a Comx daily delivery report for contract February
4:06 2026 silver futures 5,000 ounces intend date 30th of January delivery date 3rd of Feb. It shows who is taking part in physical delivery for that contract month. In comx terms issued is contracts delivered metal handed over and stopped is contracts received metal taken in. So each contract is 5,000 ounces. what JP Morgan did here. It says JP Morgan Securities. Uh does it say minus 633 or does it say 633 issued? Uh so they've it looks like they've delivered it. It means JP Morgan Chase Via broker arm brokerage arm took delivery of I think they mean um delivered 633
4:54 silver contracts. 633 times 5,000 ounces equals 3.165 million ounces of silver. That's $250 million, which is a drop in the ocean compared with JP Morgan's $54 billion profits every year. Neither here nor there. U but it is a large physical receipt. What this does not mean, it does not mean that JP Morgan closed short positions. It does not mean that JP Morgan covered paper shorts, etc. Um this report shows only physical settlement for one contract month. It says nothing about OTC derivatives, swaps, options, London bullying position, internal hedges, client positions, future book, and of course it doesn't uh doesn't tell us
5:41 anything about what position they had in any the other contract months. But let's now move back to silver and should you buy the silver miners. We're looking at the what what happened here. silver price on um fell by 26.44% or $3052 to a price of $84.92, which you can see this blue line going across here. And down below I've got the chart. This chart at the bottom is the chart of the amplify uh not the employee the global X silver miners the the big silver mining companies.
6:27 So as the so the silver price uh fell today or Friday rather to $84.92. The last time it was there was about 14 working days ago, about 18 actual days ago, uh, on the 12th of January. And on the 12th of January, it closed at the same price as it closed today. So this is the lowest price if you like for 15 or 16 days of silver. But if we look down the purple line going down here, we can see that the amplify uh not the global x silver miners symbol
7:13 is sil closed today at 90 or Friday $9430. There we are. $94.30 down 14.78%. And last time the silver price was where it is today 16 days ago, it also closed at $94.30. So my conclusion is that if the price was right 16 days ago, the price is right today. It's neither too high nor too low. But the question is, should you be buying silver miners? Not whether it was whether it's too high or too low. But certainly compared with those two dates 16 days ago when the silver price was where it is now and today we find that the SIL the ETF of the silver miners is
7:59 also in exactly the same price. So what's going to happen on Monday? Well, for sure it's going to be an extremely volatile day. We're going to see large swings up and down and perhaps in the opposite order, but there will be very big swings and anybody who's trying to trade it will risk getting caught at the wrong end. Uh your emotions are going to run wild. They start the prices start to climb. People will chase be chasing it up and chasing it up and ch then it'll turn on a six months and go all the way down. People will chasing it down, chasing down the stop losses will be being triggered. Then it'll go back up again. It's going to be a yo-yo day. I don't know which order it will be and the price will not finish I think where we finished on Friday. Um on Friday many people unwillingly ended up with cash
8:46 due to their stop- losses. So now they're sitting on cash wondering what they should do because they're actually holding an asset which is going to go down in value because the governments are increasing the levels of debt and will continue to increase the levels of debt so long as they run budget deficits. And that basically means governments get poorer, someone else gets richer and that someone else is going to buy things with it which might include silver. So, if you've got into cash, you need to think about whether you want to stay in cash or whether you want to find find your way back in. But to be honest with you, uh it's a dangerous day to do it on Monday. Um what about me? Am I selling or buying? No, I'm not doing anything and I'm not planning to do anything and I didn't do
9:32 anything in the crash and I didn't forecast it. Uh of course, every bull market is a wall of worry. So inevitably along the way we'll always get large dips. Though this one is really large, but it's not unusual to get a dip along in a bull market. So we could still be in the bull market. I don't know that. Um but a dip along the way is not at all surprising. Did I lose any money? Well, I can tell you this. I counted my silver coins and I seem to have just the same number as I had before the crash. So, I don't think I've lost any money there. I've got, you know, perhaps I had 10 before and I got 10 afterwards. They're still there. Now,
10:17 if silver and gold had not rallied so strongly in the last 10 to 15 days, you wouldn't have even noticed today's prices being unusual. It's only unusual because we had that huge spike up that you see on the chart here. There we go. um it suddenly sort of it was fairly flat and then it started accelerating way up going faster and faster with bigger and bigger jumps. You know, if it hadn't been for those last few days of jumps, you wouldn't have noticed today's prices being anything unusual. Be we all getting excited. Wow, silver's 84. It's well above the $50 barrier that and it's not ever getting back to 50. We'd be saying we'd be excite excited. But um yeah, that's what's happened. Um now the
11:03 question is I'm gonna ask answer the question what happens to the silver miners should you buy them? Keep asking the question. Well what I can tell you is that every silver miner which is digging out of the ground and selling it silver should be reporting much higher profits uh than it did when for the previous three months because if we go back here look at the silver price and I'll just bring that uh into range here. Now I'm going back to the quarter which ended last quart reported quarter which ended was the quarter ended from June to September and the silver price was around $34 by and by September it was just touching $40. So between $34 and $40 let's call it $37 $36.
11:51 That was the price at which they were selling their silver in the last reported quarter. The next reported quarter will be until December. And the average price in the quarter December will be somewhere between 40 and $56. So let's call it $48. So the average selling price will have gone from 38 to $46. And now what about the next quarter which is going to be March? Well, we don't know what the average price in March is going to be, but I'm betting that based on what we now know, it's going to be higher than $48. So when we get the year-end results to the 31st of December 2025, which will be announced probably for many companies in midFebruary, they're likely to show the last quarter with much higher profits.
12:36 And when we get the first quarter profits for 2026, which will come out in um May, April, May, June for some, uh they will show much much higher profits than they showed in December. So what we're going to see is a series of ever higher profits and when with these results come out that's the moment when the dealers tend to revise their estimates upwards to reflect the new reality. Um, so, uh, in my opinion, we're going to see a lot of profit upgrades and that will probably, and this is not investment advice. Nothing here I'm giving today is investment advice, but in my opinion, that will probably be good for many silver miners because if you have higher profits, what happens to the share price? Um, that's my uh, simple
13:23 assessment. Um, I'm going to take my leave now and just say thank you very much for listening. My name is Clive Thompson. Uh like and subscribe if you'd like more and I'll see you in the next day or two while I'll keep you updated on what's going on in the precious metals market as well as the rest of the financial world. Thank you very much and bye-bye everybody.
