Brief Summary
Clive Thompson discusses the recent precious metals price collapse, particularly focusing on silver and silver miners. He addresses a rumor about JP Morgan closing short positions, clarifies its misinterpretation, and analyzes the implications of the silver price drop on silver mining companies. He suggests that despite market volatility, silver miners are likely to report higher profits in the coming quarters, potentially leading to positive revisions and increased share prices.
- Dispels JP Morgan rumor
- Silver price analysis
- Silver miners future profits
Intro
Clive Thompson introduces the video, dated February 1st, 2026, following a significant drop in precious metals prices, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. He mentions a previous video on gold and indicates this one will focus on silver and silver miners, assessing whether it's a favorable time to invest in them.
JP Morgan Rumor
Thompson addresses a circulating rumor that JP Morgan closed all its short positions at the day's lowest price of $78.29. He clarifies that the rumor originated from a COMX report showing deliveries of silver, which is a regular daily publication. The image circulating indicates JP Morgan took delivery of silver underlying 633 February futures contracts, which could be for themselves or a client. This action does not equate to closing short positions; it actually indicates they were long on those contracts.
COMX Report Interpretation
Thompson explains that even if JP Morgan were closing a short position, 633 contracts represent only about $250 million, a small fraction of their $54 billion annual profit. He emphasizes that the delivery of contracts pertains only to the February contract and doesn't reflect their positions in other months. He uses ChatGPT to interpret a statement from COMX, confirming that the report details physical settlements for a specific contract month and doesn't provide information on OTC derivatives, swaps, options, or positions in other contract months.
Silver Price Analysis
Thompson transitions to analyzing the silver market, noting a 26.44% drop, or $30.52, bringing the price to $84.92. He compares this to the price 16 days prior, noting the price is the lowest in about 15-16 days. He also looks at the global X silver miners ETF (SIL), which closed at $94.30, down 14.78%. He concludes that if the price was right 16 days ago, it is still right today, indicating neither overvaluation nor undervaluation.
Market Volatility
Thompson predicts extreme volatility on the upcoming Monday, with large price swings that could trap traders. He advises caution, noting that emotions will run high and stop losses may be triggered. He points out that many people ended up with cash due to stop-losses and need to consider whether to reinvest, though Monday might be a risky day to do so. Thompson states he is not planning any buying or selling actions.
Silver Miners Future Profits
Thompson suggests that the recent price movements are only notable due to the preceding spike. He anticipates that silver miners will report much higher profits compared to the previous three months. He explains that the average selling price for silver in the last reported quarter (June to September) was between $34 and $40, while the next quarter (ending in December) will likely show an average between $40 and $56. He predicts the following quarter will be even higher.
Profit Upgrades
Thompson expects year-end results to show higher profits, with first-quarter profits for 2026 being even greater. He believes these increasing profits will lead dealers to revise their estimates upwards, which could positively impact silver miners' share prices. Thompson concludes by stating that this is not investment advice, but he anticipates profit upgrades will benefit many silver miners.
