Hungary: Orban की हार, Modi के लिए Warning | Right Wing Politics

0:00 Friends, today's program is going to be very special because I'll be telling you about a leader who ruled for 16 years, won for executive elections, changed his country's constitution, transformed its electoral system, took over all media ownership and transformed its economic system. Despite all this, how did he lose? And what lessons does he hold for us in India? But before I continue, please like my videos so they reach as many subscribers as possible. YouTube's algorithm considers the best percentage of likes and makes suggestions based on the number of likes. So please like, subscribe and share with your friends any short or long version of this video or any previous video. Yes, I'm talking about Viktor

0:46 Orban. Steve Bannon called he was Trump before Trump. Hi, Zio. He wasn't just the leader of the right wing in Europe, but some believe he was an inspiration to the right worldwide. But now it seems the right wing is facing some setbacks. Trump's popularity is also down. Before that, Bolsonaro lost in Brazil. And now Victor Orban's defeat. But Orban was no ordinary leader. In fact, he used to be the center-right leader. In his first term from 1998 to 2002, he was center. He was center-right. Then he lost that election. After that, he spent eight years in the opposition, roaming the wilderness and meeting ordinary Hungarians in rural areas. He tried to understand why he lost. What could be the reason for his popularity? And then he

1:36 invented something. He invented a new thing called illegal democracy. In a way, this had been happening before him, but he brought it to electoral form. Previous illiberals didn't intend so much on elections. He changed the entire electoral process. So this 2026 election followed the same formula. That means they had six advantages, which they had reconstructed by changing the entire system. I'll tell you one by one. The most important element in their formula was fear. They used it as if they were very intelligent, political scientists, Because political science has also shown that fear is the most powerful of all electoral

2:22 emotions, trust and love. More so. This is because in our evolutionary history, when humans were hunter-gatherers and then when early agriculture came, those with a level of fear did not survive. Those who were not afraid of danger were killed and could not have children. Therefore, those genes could not be spread to the next generation. Those who were a little afraid of nature or floods, earthquakes, or wild animals, for example, could preserve. But this fear wasn't just a fear of nature. And there was also fear of humans. This meant that if another group was against you or could commit violence against

3:11 you, it was always in your best interest to defend yourself against them or take action against them. This same phenomenon also emerged in modern democracy by making something a hoax as Urban did in every election. In the 2014 election, the enemy was NGOs, international NGOs. And the biggest enemy was George Soros. Yes, the same George Soros we hear about in India these days. So in a way, he invented the formula, these international NGOs are against me. In this context, he even expelled George Soros from the university he had founded. He used to be in Budapest. He was then moved to Central European University, now in Vienna. In the 2018 election, he declared homosexuals, gays and lesbians, his enemies. He declared

3:59 them the enemy of Hungary, saying they would turn your children homosexual. They're changing the entire curriculum. So I'll save you from this. I'll change your entire curriculum. I'll save your children. This also appealed to some of his base because he described himself as a Christian broad nationalist and also said that migration would be a big issue in this election. In the 2018 election, foreign migrants who didn't actually stay in Hungary came through Hungary but went to richer countries like Germany, France and England. But he has still fear in them that it would change their demographics and population. And in the 2022 election, he used the Ukraine. War and made Ukraine. His enemy, Seyemkut, will, if we don't elect me, then Hungary will also be dragged into this war. Russia is not our enemy. The cheap gas and oil

4:48 we get will also be taken away. And in this election, he started doing this openly. That is, posters were put up all over Hungary. The opposition leaders who won, Peter Magyar and Gólem Rzelski, the president of Ukraine, were accompanied by posters saying, look, if I don't win, they will take us to war. These two are villains. They are very dangerous people. Stop them. You can only stop them by voting for me. In fact, they ran very dangerous TV ads in which little girls are asking their mothers, where's my father? Where's my father? The mothers are panicking, saying, I can't tell you. And they are thinking about how their husbands are fighting, how they are killing the war between Ukraine and Russia.

5:35 These were horrifying, heart wrenching videos. And you might think it's a joke. But no, the public believed it because they controlled most of the media. The rural population in the villages didn't have access to much news and information. In fact, even in this election, when people were asked why they voted for their party, some of them were asked, why did you do that? So an elderly woman says, I have two sons. I don't want them killed in the war. This propaganda was susfer to some extent. And also because his second major advantage was that he completely controlled the media. His friends ran 100% of TV news, nearly 100% of newspapers, 100% of FM radio, and 70% to 80% of the billboards on the streets and

6:23 highways. So you can understand that 90% of the media was in his control. Only some online media and these few billboards around 20-25% were in the hands of the opposition. Orban's third major advantage was that he changed the entire electoral map. That is, he changed the boundaries of constituencies in his favor. He changed them in favor of the rural population because he went mostly among the rural population. The urban population was more well-informed than liberals, so they were more for the opposition. This is how they changed the boundaries. Fourth, they received all the money to contest elections because they had changed the entire economic structure of the country. They had given all the industries to their friends. In a way, there was an oligki that depended on them, him. They became very wealthy. But the urban population also benefited from this, using them

7:11 as ATMs. So they enriched their children and sons-in-law, but they always had much more funds for elections than the opposition. So they completely siphoned off the entire ecosystem. They filled the entire ecosystem with their posters and advertisements. Fifth, they stacked the entire judiciary. That is, they replaced the judges. They even stacked the constitutional court. They filled it with their own people. And they designed the electoral system in such a way that Theirs was a mixed electoral system, partly proportional representation and partly direct elections. The largest party, meaning the one with the most votes, would win a significant majority. In a way, the seats won would be a landslide around the height. Even if the vote percentage wasn't that high, meaning with 50% of

7:59 the vote, you could win 65-70% of the seats. This meant smaller parties wouldn't have any seats left in parliament. This would benefit them in making constitutional changes. A two-thirds majority was required for constitutional changes, meaning more than 66%. Their sixth advantage was voter intimidation, and they would intimidate voters, and buy votes. Hungary is one of the poorest countries in the European Union. Therefore, votes could be easily bought. By offering food or a small amount of money, a 6-7% vote difference could be achieved. Even minorities he opposed, like the gypsies, would vote for him out of fear or because of the lure of money. He would threaten them by saying, if you don't vote for me, your area won't get any government contracts. This means you won't get

8:47 any government jobs. You'll be pushed into even greater distress. Now, you can see all of these things to some extent in India. Fear, the first thing I mentioned is created here too. Fear of minorities or more simply, fear of Muslims is created. You've seen this in the last 10-12 years, Odega. where fears of security and war have also been created. And this is the whole politics of what's called the politics of grievances, vayas. This means that imagined or real fears are created by exaggerating things that are 100 years old, as if these fears still exist and could happen to you at any time. And only I can save you. And only I, thee. The other parties are with our enemies. So he said, they pose a threat. Therefore,

9:33 vote only for me. Vote for my party. Secondly, you know the state of the media here. Open any TV channel, whether Hindi, English, or regional languages. In fact, in India, they've been given the name Godi Media because they're in someone's lap. Similarly, pick up any newspaper. Turn on any radio station, you'll find Maan Kiba playing. Third, you've seen the changing of constituency boundaries. You've seen what happened in delimitation itself, even in state by state Lok Sabha elections. You've also seen constitutional capture, whether it's the Election Commission of India, the CBI or the Vigilance Commission. Fourth, you've seen the money, 80% of the white money from electoral bonds goes to a single party. You can imagine what happens to black money. Those with

10:23 money gain influence in elections. They woo people and intimidate voters. Look further in any constitutional position, whether it's the Speaker of the Luxaba or judiciary. High Court or the Supreme Court very rarely do any decisions. So against the government, so they need to go against the government. 99% of all decisions are in the government's favor. So how did the opposition win in Hungary after 16 years? What lessons does this victory hold for us in India? First of all, Peter Magyar wasn't a left-wing or liberal candidate. He himself is a center-right candidate. Peter Magyar is the one who defeated Orban in this election. He was the leader of the opposition. I want to be clear, in 2024, a

11:10 scandal erupted in the government, which led to his resignation in joining the opposition. The scandal was that sexual abuse had occurred in a government-run children's home, and the perpetrator was convicted. But the president had a parliament done, and the justice minister also signed off on a lead. And the justice minister was the wife of Peter Magriar, the man you know, Jeet. When this scandal broke, the president had to resign and his wife, who was justice minister, also had to resign. Before the scandal could spread further, Peter Magriar resigned himself and gave a frank interview on an online channel establishing his reputation as a truth teller. He was a man who stood up for justice. Now,

12:00 people knew that although Viktor Orban was the prime minister of Hungary, nothing happened without his say. So in reality, the scandal, the pardoning decision must have been made by Viktor Orban himself again. The president and justice minister were merely stooges. But as I told you, according to Transparency International, Hungary is along with Bulgaria, the most corrupt country in Europe. So Peter Magyar made corruption the main issue. He didn't let the election drift toward identity issues, toward ideological issues. Instead, he combined the corruption with something else. Hungary's poor economic growth. Hungary is growing at just 0.4%. Unemployment is rampant.

12:46 Inflation is also high. He showed and explained to the people that this is happening because the entire system is corrupt. Even when you receive funding from the government or the European Union to build a factory or a road, Viktor Uba and his friends siphon it all off. So Peter Magyar didn't target urban liberal voters. He targeted rural voters. He tried to attract them. He tried to attract the same voters who previously voted for Orban. And political science also suggests this is the correct strategy. In political science, there's a strategy called the median voter strategy. This means targeting your middle voter. Hungary's middle voter had over the years become center-right. They weren't extreme right or left. That's why if you look at the

13:33 way the electoral map has changed from Hungary's previous election to this one, the cities were with the opposition and rural areas were mostly with Orbán. But now you'll see that rural areas have also shifted mostly to the opposition. This same strategy was adopted in England by Tony Blair after Margaret Thatcher's presidency. Margaret Thatcher won around 1979 and remained in any power for the next 12 years. Even after that, John Major, our successor in the Conservative Party, also remained in power. So when the 1997 election came, the Conservatives had been in power for 18 years. It seemed that if Labour didn't win the election, the Labour Party would be wiped out. Therefore, Tony Blair and the Labour Party faced a huge challenge. Tony Blair knew

14:21 that the public's nature had changed. They wouldn't vote for a left-wing party anymore. He remembered the of the 60s and 70s when the public sector was very dominant. There were frequent strikes and there was low economic growth. So he devised a new approach. He declared my path is neither right nor left. I am a third way. I favored neither the private sector nor the public sector, but I favored the third way. And he targeted the middle class voter. There was already an 18 minus year anti-incumbency, just like 100 experience during 16 years of anti-incumbency. So he attracted that disenchanted and dissatisfied voter. And finally, after 18 years, Labour returned to power in the UK. The first strategy was to focus on the economy. The second was to target the media voter and focus on corruption and non-ideological issues. The third strategy

15:08 was that Peter Mugli-Yayars, he knew the media was completely in Orban's hands. So, through door-to-door campaigning, he went from village to village directly meeting people. He spent a considerable amount of time doing this, focusing especially on rural areas. In this way, he neutralized their media and financial advantage. But friends, this victory doesn't mean that Hungary will completely change because the president remains the same as Viktor Orbán's appointed one. The judiciary and constitutional courts are the same as Viktor Orbán's appointed ones. But Peter McGuire has a huge advantage. He didn't win by a small margin. The final lesson of this election is, if you want to win, win big. Win big! That

15:54 means, if you win even a small victory against such an authoritarian, such a dictator, even by a small margin, he will buy those parties and those candidates. If the margin of victory is small, and many small parties also get votes, then it is easy to buy them. But Peter Magyar's single party won 66% of the seats with 53-54% of the vote. In this election, Victor Urban got approximately 37% of the vote, and he got close to 54% back. If he had got close to him, there wouldn't have been such a gap of 17%. Meaning he got 69.3% of the seats and you need a minimum of two-thirds, i.e. 66.6% of the seats to change the Constitution. Now he faces many tasks. Many tasks. First, he must

16:41 change the presidenta. He must change the... He must change media ownership. He can do this gradually by changing the budget. Secondly, he will have to remove his dependence on Russia because Russia used to subsidize Hungary to some extent by selling cheap oil and gas. It wasn't as cheap as Viktor Orban used to say that it wasn't the cheapest in Europe. Still, if he withdraws, the European Union will have to give Hungary some money so that Hungary can balance its budget again. But this election has created a stir. Right-wingers in America are also thumping their chests. Putin is also very angry. because Viktor Orban used to work as Putin's agent in the European Union. He would block any sanctions against Russia. He would block

17:30 any ads in Ukraine, that is, if the Europeans were giving money. Putin even suggested to him that he would plot a fake assassination for him, a false flag attack, like the assassination attempt against Trump. I'm not saying that the attack on Trump was fake, but they were saying that if we do this, you will gain sympathy, People's sympathy will come. And with this sympathy, you will win. In fact, the plot actually happened. The president of Serbia, Putin Stoog, said that he had uncovered a bomb plot, a terror plot, where people wanted to blow up the oil and gas pipeline coming from his country to Hungary. This was announced just days before the election so that sympathy would upload toward Viktor Orban and against the opposition.

18:18 So friends, let's see what impact this has on the world. You must have seen in my previous video that Trump's influence is also declining due to the war with Iran and rising inflation. Even in America, voters are angry and upset with Trump and elections are also coming to America this year. Year if, midterm elections will be held on November 7th. If Trump loses both the House and the Senate, he will become a lame duck president. So stay tuned and we'll keep bringing you such information. It's possible this could have some impact on India's elections. Our opposition leaders should learn from this, because a healthy opposition is crucial for a country. If a ruling party wins election after election, why would it make decisions in favor

19:03 of voters? It will make decisions. It knows it will inevitably win votes. That's where the English saying goes, no opposition means no democracy. So until next time, friends, cha.