【精選】美信用破產「全球投資人加速逃離美債」？！40兆美債「12年內恐翻倍成80兆」？！｜#環球大戰線 @globalfrontlinetv

0:00 We see that what was supposed to be the most stable U.S. Treasury bond has now instead become a very high-risk bond. Backed by the national credit, when did it happen that a country as big as the United States could potentially face a credit bankruptcy? Its yields suddenly soared, whether for the 10-year or 30- year notes, spiking to 5 or 6 percent. Rising that much means that everyone no longer trusts the credit of the United States. It is because of the wars; even now, with oil prices soaring, if they don't stop, that will naturally drive inflation, and the Fed may raise interest rates. The U.S. national debt itself has reached 40 trillion; has everyone heard of the Rule of 72? Divide 72 by your interest rate; for

0:45 example, if your rate is 6, 72 divided by 6 is 12, meaning after 12 years, your debt will double. For the U.S. 40 trillion to double to 80 trillion, that possibility is just around the corner. Regarding the stock market and the bond market, we all know that if you have some basic investment knowledge, you’d know that if you are young, you can invest more aggressively, maybe 30% stocks and 70%bonds, or 70%stocks and 30%bonds. You put more money into stocks and less into bonds, but as you age and need to be more conservative, you might do 30%stocks and 70%bonds; you use less for stocks and more for bonds, as the bond market is generally a more stable and conservative investment. In terms of investments, they are generally divided into things

1:31 like junk bonds or corporate bonds. Of course, the most stable—the very most stable, as I recall from a few years ago—was the government bond, because the state guarantees these bonds, so you could say they are guaranteed not to fail. Of course, because it’s backed by the state, its interest rate and yield are relatively low, but it is very safe. But now, with the changes over these past few years, we see that what should have been the most stable U.S. Treasury bond has instead become a high-risk bond. We know that a bond is just borrowing money from others, and borrowing money has everything to do with your credit. In the past, with a country like the U.S. acting as guarantor, backed by national credit, I would only pay you 1%or 2%interest, or like a company such as TSMC, they issue corporate bonds with very low interest rates, yet everyone still buys them

2:17 like crazy. Why? Because it’s stable, it’s secure. So, who is buying a lot of these bonds? It’s mostly those general pension funds or retirement funds doing the heavy lifting, because they simply cannot afford to fail. Now, when did it become possible for a country as huge as the United States to face a potential credit collapse? The fact that yields, whether 10-year or 30 -year, have suddenly spiked to 5%or 6% shows that people no longer trust American credit. I believe there are several reasons why the U.S. has reached this point. First, in the short term, it's because of the wars and tensions from the Trump era to now in the Strait of Hormuz, where there's no willingness to stop fighting. If oil prices keep soaring, it will naturally

3:04 drive up inflation. As inflation increases, interest rates will naturally follow, which may force the Fed to raise rates. The second big reason, I think, is that the U.S. national debt has reached a staggering $ 40 trillion. If a country owes that much in debt, you'd be a bit worried about lending them more money, wondering when this country might collapse. Third, the U.S. has poor control over its budget deficits. Even now, the deficit continues to grow every year, meaning their total national debt will keep ballooning. Has everyone heard of the Rule of 72? The Rule of 72 means you take 72 and divide it by your interest rate. For example, if your interest rate is 6, 72 divided by 6 is 12, which means your debt will double in 12 years. Just look at this:

3:51 after a few years of interest, the U.S. debt will jump from $ 40 trillion to $ 80 trillion. It is quite possible that in our lifetime, we will see U.S. national debt more than double. These numbers don't lie, so I feel the short-term surge in U.S. Treasury yields is unsolvable. Next, we will look at how the "nuclear bomb" of U.S. Treasuries has turned around and started crushing the U.S. stock market. We will take a closer look at the yields, which have surged to a 19-year high, and mortgage rates, which have put immense pressure on ordinary people , with 30-year rates exceeding 7%, effectively draining American households. People are now watching to see if the U.S. stock market, fueled by AI leverage, will repeat the precursors of the 1987 crash. We will provide an in-depth analysis of these issues today . Now let's look at international oil

4:38 prices, which have surged past $ 100 per barrel due to various conflicts in the Middle East. We see that energy prices are soaring, and with the Fed likely to continue raising interest rates, US Treasury bonds are being sold off aggressively once again. Let's look at the latest numbers; both the 10-year and 30-year yields have hit new highs. The 10-year Treasury yield is now at 5.24%, reaching its highest level in 27 years, while the 30-year rate is also nearing a 20-year high. Why is the bond market being hit by so much negative news? What does that include? Beyond the Middle East conflicts mentioned earlier, there's Trump's proposed tariffs, various tax cuts, immigration restrictions, and AI investment

5:25 competition, all putting immense pressure on the US bond market. Most importantly, the US fiscal deficit has now reached 6%of GDP. The government must continue issuing bonds to fill this current gap and "black hole." To keep issuing debt, they must keep raising yields so that American consumers and investors will continue to buy. This has resulted in even greater debt pressure on the US government. We also need to look at the most direct impact on ordinary people: mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate has just broken through 7%for the first time in two years. Let's use a concrete number to calculate. If you have a $ 400,000 mortgage, each American family has to pay an extra $ 3,000 per year,

6:11 which is roughly 95,000 NT dollars; that's an additional 95,000 NT dollars a year just for mortgage payments. Next , we have to look at whether these high rates will crush the US economy, and if the national debt has already crossed the $ 40 trillion mark, could it soon hit $ 45 trillion? What kind of crisis would that trigger? What is your take? >> Right, the US national debt is growing too fast; starting next year, the government is expected to borrow about $ 2 trillion annually. >> Mhm. >> $ 2 trillion—and it is estimated that the US national debt interest expense for this year alone will reach $ 1

6:58 trillion. As of September, the US government has already paid $ 827 billion in interest to service its national debt this fiscal year. That has already exceeded this year's defense budget, as defense spending is only $ 713 billion. >> The government's interest payments alone reached 827 billion, so the interest on U.S. national debt might exceed that this year. >> At this current rate, by 2036, the annual interest on the U.S. national debt could potentially reach 2.1 trillion. >> This will naturally cause the U.S. government to crowd out its other

7:45 expenditures. >> Because if your budget suddenly has to cover 1 to 1.5 trillion in interest per year, that interest payment crowds out social welfare, education, and R&D spending, which are all major items in the federal budget. Consequently, the services provided by the U.S. government may continue to shrink. Well , >> Unless you want to solve it, what can you do? >> That would mean you have to raise taxes . But the U.S. government generally leans toward cutting taxes. So it appears that the services the U.S. government provides to its people will keep shrinking. >> On the other hand, mortgage rates in the U.S. have now reached 7%.

8:32 >> All of this contributes to an increase in the overall cost of living for the middle class. Because the American Dream is for an individual. To have a car and a so-called single-family house , and then spend a lifetime—30 years —paying off that debt. If that debt continues to rise, the middle class will basically have less and less disposable income. This could also cause a stagnation in the U.S. economy, as the middle class is the main driver of consumer spending. >> If a large portion of their income goes

9:18 toward mortgage payments, other spending will be crowded out, and without spending, there is no income; the U.S. economy relies on spending to drive momentum, so it affects the entire society's economic engine and purchasing power will decline, making this no small matter. Moreover, with this 7%rate, the average person might be paying over 300 dollars more per month compared to a 3%or 3.5%interest rate. >> For a middle-class family, that is an incredibly heavy burden. And if they cannot make these mortgage payments, the U.S. legal system protects the lenders, not the homeowners.

10:04 >> The bank will quickly repossess the house, and many people will end up out on the streets. >> So, mortgage payments are a major expense for Americans. If interest rates keep rising, I think any leader in power will be affected, because this concerns the amount of money in everyone's pocket. And I think the current situation is unfavorable for Trump’s election campaign. >> Yes. Alright, let’s look at the mounting pressure on U.S. Treasuries. At the same time, we are seeing some signals emerging from the financial markets. It seems the market is very worried that under this kind of red-line pressure, will banks and funds start reducing their holdings simultaneously, subsequently causing a dual crisis for both U.S. Treasuries

10:50 and U.S. stocks? We’ll ask Shang-ge to help us analyze this in a moment. Let’s look at the financial signals we just mentioned. First is the yield on U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasuries. Currently, the 2-year is at 4.9%and the 10-year is at 5.2%. They look very close, don’t they? The concern now is the 2-year part; especially for this short-term rate, if it continues to climb and even surpasses the 10-year, will we start to see a yield curve inversion? And people will ask, what does an inversion represent? Because, looking at history, whenever an inversion occurred, it was very likely to trigger related financial recession issues. The background at the time was that since 1960, the U.S. had seen eight instances where a yield curve inversion occurred before a recession,

11:37 and one of those in 1978 led to a recession about 15 months later. Another financial red line we’re watching is the MOVE index, known as the "fear gauge" for U.S. Treasuries. It surged 33%in a short time—is this another alarm bell ringing? Furthermore , major banks have drawn two more red lines. The first is the MOVE index breaking through 125, and the second is the iShares Global Financials ETF falling below the $ 1125 mark. The market is now analyzing that if these two signals appear simultaneously, it could trigger these funds to liquidate their positions and banks to shrink their balance sheets, selling off these risk assets. If that happens, what is your take on the impact on U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stocks, Shang-ge?

12:24 >> Right, we’re wondering why we are always talking about the U.S. Treasury issue; even a slight rise in yields gets talked about a lot. I’d like to share with you all today a big-picture, structural concept of global capital. Here is how the world stands now: worldwide, including the U.S., China, and Taiwan, there is roughly $ 250 trillion in investable funds circulating globally. Within this amount, for a long time, about $ 130 trillion has gone into U.S. Treasuries, along with bonds from other countries like Japan or China, plus various types of corporate bonds. Now, looking at this ratio, why is it that when the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates, it impacts the entire world? Because once they raise rates, the cost for those who originally bought these U.S. Treasuries goes up. It’s like when

13:10 you keep money in the bank and the interest rate rises. But don’t forget , many companies operate on financing; they borrow money to invest and make acquisitions. So, when the Fed raises interest rates, anyone spending money —including those seeking financing— finds their costs increasing. Very few companies use their own money to invest ; they all borrow. Consequently, they are impacted, and what happens? Businesses shrink because they don't have as much money, forcing them to become more economically cautious. That is why every time the U.S. Fed cuts rates, funds flow out, everyone starts investing, and global stock markets rise. That’s the reason. So, you see how U.S. Treasury yields or prices affect the linkage to stock markets. Global capital buys U.S. Treasuries,

13:57 and the rest goes elsewhere. Aside from Treasuries, the first thing people turn to for long-term credit and risk hedging is gold. Beyond that, when volatility is high, they look to the U.S. dollar or U.S. stocks, just like anywhere else—currencies or stocks— because they fluctuate daily, attracting investors. Beyond that, things like oil prices and cryptocurrencies are also siphoning off parts of that $ 250 trillion in global funds, so everyone is competing. Now, what is meant by the inverted yield curve of U.S. Treasuries that I just mentioned? It means that right now, nobody wants U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. government is currently carrying so much debt that it has lost its credibility. It’s a credit market contraction. Overseas investors are dumping U.S. Treasuries because they think, if I buy your 10-, 20-, or 30- year bonds, will the U.S. government be facing even bigger problems 30 years from now? What happens when your debt

14:43 grows so large that you can no longer pay it back? So, U.S. Treasury debt is actually a core issue of credit, but we also know that the main reason is that America’s current focus on AI is sucking up global capital. Those who might have invested in Treasury bonds —seeing interest rates at 5.3%or 5.4% —are now buying Nvidia stock because AI is making so much money; it's a " straw effect," with money being siphoned back and forth. This makes U.S. Treasury bonds even less desirable , which pushes up their yields. However , once U.S. Treasury rates reach a certain level—now estimated to be around 5.5%—aren't they already at 5.2%? At over 5%, moving toward 5.5%, what does that inversion mean? Because if rates stay high—not just for the U.S., but for many countries and companies with rising debt—once you

15:29 hit 5.5%, you don't have to do anything . We’ve even seen the two-year yield break 5%; we used to watch the 10-year, but now the two-year is over 5%. What does this mean? If investing for two years is better than a fixed deposit, and I want to avoid risk—seeing the stock market or AI as a bit dangerous —I’ll buy these Treasury bonds. It creates this inversion where people suddenly don't want them, but once interest rates reach a certain point... ...at that stage, everyone thinks it’s better to park their money there , which triggers a major reversal: Treasury bonds suddenly start sucking up everyone’s money again. Also, you have to realize that this situation with U.S. Treasuries doesn't just affect the U.S. or the dollar; its current impact is global because everything is interconnected. That is to say, U.S. Treasury bonds affect the dollar. Isn't the dollar very strong right now? Everyone thinks the dollar is strong due to this interconnectedness, because if you buy

16:14 or save in dollars, the interest is better. But once this effect is exported, it causes currencies worldwide, including the yen and the New Taiwan dollar, to depreciate. Because the dollar is strong and U.S. Treasury yields are high, other countries—even if you don't buy U.S. Treasuries—still have to pay the price for these fluctuations because the entire world is within the U.S. dollar system. So, as we just said, there isn't much demand for U.S. Treasuries, which keeps interest rates high. But once those rates hit a certain point, there will be a moment when everyone thinks, "Treasuries really aren't bad, maybe even better than gold," especially for those risk-averse capitals—one side wants to invest, the other wants to hedge. Not everyone is investing in national funds; those pension funds and others are looking for hedging, and this hedging capital is far greater than investment capital, which is why the

17:00 change in U.S. debt is so significant. Once it breaks above 5.5%, it might end up turning around and sucking up capital from all over the world. Right, we have indeed seen signs of this, because its yield, especially on the 10 -year Treasury, has already broken 5.2% . You mentioned last time that there is a possibility of further increases, especially since the Fed might continue to raise rates this year. If it really breaks the 5.5%mark, will more capital be pulled out of AI and moved into U.S. Treasuries? So, at this point, AI companies looking for financing are getting nervous, and they've decided, " Well, we might as well keep raising our own yields." But doing this is actually quite detrimental to these AI companies ; it's like they're continuing to burn money, continuing to burn through this

17:46 black hole. For a concrete example, let's look at tech stocks. The 100-year bonds issued by Alphabet have seen a clear decline in price. Another one is Oracle; their long-term bond yield has climbed to a new high of 7%or even 8%. Wall Street is starting to sound the alarm. A Wall Street veteran named McDonald warned that the trend in U.S. Treasury yields is looking more and more like it did before Black Monday in 1987. What happened back then? It was seeing U.S. Treasury yields keep soaring, while the U.S. stock market was also constantly hitting new highs. Yet, two months later, the Dow Jones plummeted by nearly 23%in a single day.

18:32 Is it possible for a similar situation to happen today? General Zhang, how do you see the possibility of a double kill for both U.S. bonds and stocks going forward? >> I believe that the U.S. raising the 10- year Treasury yield to 5.2%is, in my view, just a debt maneuver. >> Taking policy measures like this hasn't solved the problem at all. >> Once you increase these yields, it leads to monetary tightening, and money starts flowing out of the stock market. As people leave the stock market, and because yields have increased, everyone’s investment decreases. Funding for scientific research also becomes less. If your R&D funding decreases, don't forget that your national capability will decline. Because you have no money for research, you will end up in a semi-stagnant state. In that case, your overall competitiveness and economic development will experience a decline.

19:19 Mhm. >> In other words, you are just delaying the problem without actually solving it , right? I think he needs to solve this from two aspects. First, he must reduce his trade deficit. In 2025, the U.S. trade deficit was 901.5 billion dollars . Look, they overbought so many things and the money flowed out. Since the money is gone, I have no money, so I'll raise interest rates to get everyone’s money back to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. But the problem is there is now 40 trillion dollars in U.S. debt. >> At 5%, um, >> Even if you don't spend a dime all year , you're already paying two trillion in interest alone, and that's not even counting your trade deficit. Look at how miserable the U.S. is. The second thing is that the federal budget needs to be reduced and controlled, but no one wants to do it. You have to realize

20:05 that when Trump first took office, Elon Musk wanted to make cuts, he wanted to cut the central government, but he offended everyone. Nobody wanted to be cut, so Elon Musk just went back to work on his rockets, right? In other words, the idea of laying people off, especially in the federal government, is not very likely. If neither of these can be achieved, then you're just printing money. You have to raise the interest rates, but you still have to print money, so the entire economic development becomes a tight knot that just won't loosen. >> Both are stuck; they keep needing high interest rates, and in the end, it becomes the U.S.'s... >> This kind of economic stagnation will emerge, and ultimately, it will affect the national power of the United States . See, because if the economy performs

20:50 poorly, national power will decline. Politics and psychology matter, but the economy is most important, because the economy drives everything; it is the engine of national development. So, if the U.S. economy is not handled well, the national power of the U.S. will naturally decline in relative terms. >> Yes! Next, let's look at how Beijing has tightened its fuel supply, while Trump's poll numbers are being strangled by diesel prices. He is lashing out at Germany and France to save oil prices, demanding they release 120 million barrels of oil, threatening that the U.S. will cut off their oil supply if they don't comply. Under these conditions of soaring oil prices, we see that his economic approval rating has dropped to just 26%— referring to Trump. Even young Trump supporters are now switching sides to vote for the Democratic Party. We will provide an in-depth analysis of these

21:37 issues today. Now, for another bombshell in the global fuel market: a Reuters exclusive report reveals that Chinese oil refiners have suspended exports. Starting in October, besides Hong Kong and Macau, they will ban all gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel shipments to other regions. Of course, this still awaits further official confirmation, but the news immediately triggered a reaction in oil prices. International oil prices surged during trading, with Brent crude oil jumping directly to the $ 102 per barrel mark. Unexpectedly, right after China's move, Russia also announced that it would extend its diesel export ban through the end of October. It seems that both

22:22 China and Russia made this decision right before the U.S. midterm elections . We don't know the reason, and we will ask our experts to comment later, but is this just a coincidence? Because Trump is now under immense pressure, what can be done to save oil prices? Trump has set his sights on his allies, specifically Germany and France. Trump's latest demand is for these two nations to tap into their emergency diesel reserves, requiring the EU to release 120 million barrels of diesel within six months. The EU is very nervous about this, because this 120 million barrels of diesel accounts for about 40%of their total reserves. Trump even threatened that if Germany and France dare not to cooperate, he will

23:08 ban the export of U.S. diesel to them. So, at the start of the show, I’d like to ask Professor Yuan: Why did China and Russia choose this specific time to restrict oil and halt exports? Second, why is Trump starting to threaten Germany and France at this moment? Could it be that the U.S. expects its allies to bear the burden of its own oil shortage? What is your take, Professor? The current news from China is that starting in October, they will ban gasoline and diesel exports, with the exception of shipments to Hong Kong and Macau. There are mainly three reasons. The first is to ensure a stable supply during the National Day holiday, specifically for gasoline and diesel, as they serve different purposes. >> Right. The second point involves

23:56 something I wonder if everyone is aware of. Look at the current situation in the Middle East. We just mentioned that crude oil prices are rising. Crude oil is different from gasoline and diesel, as it's used for refining. But why the increase? Because now, between the Strait of Hormuz and the other side, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait where the Houthis are, Arab oil is simply not getting out. If this oil cannot get out , it's very serious for mainland China, since 50%of their oil is imported. That's why they need preventive measures. The third point, I feel, is that for the mainland, this is about stabilizing the domestic market. >> To be honest, the benefit of a free market is that it adjusts prices on its own. However, to keep the domestic

24:42 market stable for those of us who drive , you don't want to feel the sting every time you fuel up. If a liter jumps from 32 to 35, people will naturally think, "What's going on? Why the big difference?" and blame the government. Stabilizing gas prices is necessary because everyone drives. So, in the current situation in China, coincidentally, Russia has similar considerations. Given these considerations, and the fact that they have many refineries—China, Russia, and the U.S. are the largest exporters of refined oil—diesel and gasoline are both crucial. As for Russia, its refineries are being heavily bombed by Ukraine, and their own people even have to queue up to buy gasoline. Under these circumstances, Russia itself

25:28 realizes that securing oil is essential to maintaining domestic stability. I think Russia especially needs to ensure this stability, because it feels like there is a need to boost confidence in Putin's judgment and overall capabilities right now. Now, regarding the U.S., I must emphasize their current approach. Not long ago, Trump said, "Well, I, the US, am going to restrict exports, right?" The US is indeed one of the world's most important diesel exporters, but I thought that for the European countries , the US wouldn't take such a step. When we were here last time, we said that doing so would mean handing the market over to mainland China, because as everyone knows, mainland China restricted gasoline and diesel exports back in April of this year, and then lifted them after about a month when the situation stabilized. Why lift them ? Because prices went up and they

26:15 wanted to sell oil, right? Regarding the refining costs and considerations, the current US approach is a bit unkind . It means, I'm not in a hurry to ban exports yet, but you should release your own oil reserves first, and then after you do, I'll buy some of that reserve oil. But this approach by Trump is unkind, though I don't think he would actually do it, and why? Because every country maintains its own diesel reserves; I have always believed that the oil market is internationalized and prices can level everything out, but the US's current approach is highly likely to make it lose its established gasoline and diesel markets. Yes, okay. So, next we'll see what Trump's next move will be, and whether he will actually restrict US diesel exports.

27:00 But regardless, this idea from Trump has already affected other countries ' trust in the credibility of the United States. Now, let's look at the fact that soaring oil prices in the US are directly affecting ordinary American citizens. How high are oil prices right now? The average price of diesel across the US has hit $ 6.53 per gallon, a record high, representing a jump of over 40%compared to earlier this year. Which specific cities and states? Let’s look at the numbers: California is hit hardest at $ 8.40, San Francisco at $ 8.73, Illinois at $ 6.80, and Chicago has reached $ 7.00. And why is the impact on diesel so fatal? Because it affects the transportation lifeline of the US economy. Freight operators have pointed out that fuel now accounts for 40%of their truck operating costs

27:46 —that's incredible! With just this price hike, it means the logistics industry will add fuel surcharges, which will eventually be passed on to supermarkets, manufacturers, retailers, and consumers. In fact, we see that farmers in Georgia are bearing the brunt of it. They find it strange that consumers are paying higher prices for these goods, so why are farmers earning less? On the other hand, we see that it's not just the middle class being hit hard. We used to say American consumption was K-shaped, but now even high-income earners are feeling the pinch and are starting to cut back on their spending. This Wall Street prophet, Meredith Whitney, observed that once gasoline exceeds $ 4 per gallon, high-income households start

28:31 buying fewer cars, traveling less, and purchasing fewer home appliances, signaling that the K-shaped consumption that previously supported the U.S. economy is starting to loosen. So, will this trigger the next wave of economic recession or unemployment? We must know that personal consumption accounts for as much as 70%of U.S. GDP, right? So, to put it plainly, personal consumption is the most important pillar supporting the U.S. economy, isn't it? What else? There are also the wealthy, the high-end consumers. The contribution they make to U.S. economic growth cannot be ignored. But, Whitney says— who is Whitney? Whitney is a remarkably accurate forecaster. Back in early 2008

29:19 , 16 years ago now, she predicted the subprime mortgage crisis would happen. She said at the time, "I don't know how it will happen, I don't know what day it will happen, but it will definitely happen." She was dubbed the prophet of Wall Street; that is correct. She is a Wall Street analyst and forecaster who accurately predicted that it would happen. Now, she recently said the U.S. economy was originally K-shaped. What is "K"? K means the wealthy keep going up; they aren't affected by timing or the economy. Their consumption is always trending upward. And what about the downward path? The downward path is for the middle class and below, the low-income households. They just keep going down. So, the U.S. is a standard

30:05 K-shaped economy, but she says the upward trend of the K is about to fall off. Which letter will it turn into? We don't know, but the reason is very simple, it's what we've been talking about. From 4 dollars a gallon to 6 dollars a gallon, you might think it’s only two dollars more, but don't you feel that this situation needs to be broken? For the American middle class, this is the thought: "I can't keep paying for six-dollar gas," but where has it reached now? >> Mm. >> It has already reached 6.53. >> Mm. It's just one step away from jumping to 7 dollars. I'm telling you all, once it hits 7 dollars, the confidence index will collapse. As I've mentioned, the economic confidence

30:50 index from last August to this August has already dropped by 12 points. So, in the U.S. market, you can see that this isn't just about gas overturning everything; it will have a knock-on effect on retail, fuel, food, manufacturing, and every other industry . So Whitney made it very clear; he said credit card balances and gas price trends should be one-to-one, but now they are beginning to diverge. I'll tell you the answer: American households are now spending an average of 927 extra dollars a month. That’s

31:37 equivalent to 30,000 NT dollars. Just think about it, if we had to spend an extra 30,000 a month in Taiwan just to break even, I'm sorry, but the average monthly salary in Taiwan isn't even over 45,000! Needing an extra 30,000? The middle class and low-income households would have been furious long ago. So that’s why Trump still says, "The economy is great, I’m doing a good job. I’m telling you, I’m the best president we've had in the last ten or so years; we just lack publicity ." He says he’s doing well, just lacking promotion, and lately, he’s even going to hand out 500 dollars. To a million people! How can you say I’m not doing a good job, right? That’s just the overcharged health insurance

32:24 premiums from the Obama administration that he’s returning to you. But the problem is, that’s not what people want from Trump. If you give me 500 dollars, I might spend it in less than a month, right? You need to lower gas prices quickly to bring down all commodity prices; that’s what the people want. Otherwise, how are you going to manage the midterm elections? >> Paxton will solve it. Let the general tell you what Paxton actually said. As it turns out, even now, not even people in his own party dare to support Trump. 65%of the party delegates are saying, " Trump, if you don't change, you're going to ruin us all." >> Mm. Yes, we just specifically mentioned Paxton, who is actually a Republican senator from Texas. What did he say? He said that people are actually quite afraid of Trump coming to campaign for

33:10 them, because wherever Trump makes an appearance, the numbers—the vote counts—almost always seem to trend downward. Right, those were the words of this senator. Let’s look at the latest polling numbers. How do ordinary people view the overall economic situation right now? Now, looking at the cost of living approval rating, for Trump, public support has dropped to just 17%, with over 80%expressing disapproval. His economic approval rating has fallen to just 26%, hitting a record low, and 65%of respondents believe that rising prices are related to Trump's policies. Here is the key point: among young voters under 30, those who previously supported Trump are down to just 19%, and 60%of young respondents say they would rather vote for the Democratic Party in the future. Is it possible that even the "horses"

33:56 have fallen? Lijun, what is your take? >> Trump feels good about himself, but once he starts his midterm election campaign trail, those Republican candidates are going to be terrified. Let’s look at this from a historical perspective; why do I say that? Actually, history can prove it, as it's the same America. You know, during the George W. Bush era, many historical events were actually quite similar. Bush once enjoyed very high national support during the 9/11 incident, but in 2006, when the U.S. faced midterm elections, he was bogged down in the Iraq War, causing his approval rating to plummet to 39%. And that was 39%; Trump doesn't even have that now. At

34:41 that time, during the midterms, all the Republicans avoided George W. Bush’s help in campaigning like the plague. And sure enough, they lost both the House and the Senate in the midterms. Then, in 2008, it got even worse. In 2008, Bush’s approval rating hit another low as he was caught up in the so-called financial crisis. Isn’t that financial crisis similar to the situation Trump is facing now? One was the Iraq War back then, and then there was the financial crisis. Is Trump now also trapped in a similar quagmire of war? And following that, we see the K-shaped economic development we just talked about in the U.S., where many ordinary people are not living well and the economy isn't great, which was also the case back in 2008. Do you know what

35:27 George W. Bush's approval rating dropped to? It fell to just 25%, yeah. >> What made it worse back then was that the US presidential election was approaching. The Republican candidate that year, John McCain, kept trying to distance himself from Bush, telling him not to show up. But his opponent, the Democratic candidate Barack Obama, kept campaigning by linking the two together —constantly tying John McCain to George W. Bush. We all know the result: Obama won in a landslide. Now, regarding Trump, if you find yourself bogged down in a war—this American war—and 65%of the public believes that your policies are the reason the

36:13 economy is bad and people are struggling, wouldn't you say there's a similarity to the situation with George W. Bush back then? Under these circumstances, for Trump to still go around helping Republican candidates with their campaigns—it’s like asking a ghost to prescribe medicine. We can easily imagine the consequences. Alright, audience members, we are launching our membership channel! With the chaos in the US, China, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific, what you see is just the news; what we see is who is pulling the strings behind the scenes. By becoming a member, you get an all-access pass to exclusive perspectives. You will get priority access to deeper analysis, including core truth investigations, historical context breakdowns, and situational logic projections. You will also unlock member badges, priority interaction

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