Most Age Records are Pension Fraud, Scientist Says

0:00 for many people it seems the goal of life is not to die and if immortality is your goal then what better place to look for inspiration than super centenarians those who live beyond the age of 110 years why did they make it when many others didn't nutrition genes staying off of social media according to a new study out of the University of Oxford longevity is strongly correlated with living in regions that are poor and have crime rates really yes really this study comes from Saul Newman who had a close look at the quality of data about supercentenarians this paper has not yet been peer-reviewed but what he found is

0:45 very surprising and more than just a little concerning the first eyebrow raising finding is from the United States data Newman compared the distribution of birth dates in the general population to that of the supposedly super old you see that the super old are considerably more likely to have been born on the 1 of the month or on the 15th this suggests that someone at some point just wrote down their best approximate guess for their age so maybe super old people just looked older than they were from this figure you can also see that the number of Super centenarians on record in the US dropped sharply by almost 80% at some point in time that's marked a z zero here what happened there that Americans

1:32 laugh themselves to death about European fashion TRS no the drop happened when the US introduced birth registrations this supports the suspicion that most if not all of the previous super centenarians had their age wrongly written down at some point in Italy birth registrations were introduced earlier but the data also has quite some surprises if you break it down by regions then the number of Super all people is negative L correlated with the Survivor rate at Mid AG it's also negatively correlated with a regional gross domestic product that can be seen as a measure of prosperity this means that the worse the life conditions are for the average Italian in a region the more of them seem to live to a higher

2:19 age the author says that this supports the hypothesis that Italian supercentenarians largely constitute a collection of errors and pension fraud in France to the regional number of super old people is correlated with poverty and high crime rate it's a similar story in England there too reaching a supposedly High age is more likely in poor and difficult regions a very illustrative example is Tower hamlets a borrow of London it has the most supercentenarians per capita in England it also has the highest poverty rate highest income equality and the highest rate of financial distress among older people most tellingly it hasn't only a surprisingly High number of

3:05 people above the age of 110 but also a surprisingly small number of people in the age group just below this this suggests that some have passed themselves off as older than they really are what about all the Japanese that supposedly get so old thanks to eating vegetables and fish there too the data looks similar the ratio of supercentenarians in Japan has correlated with poverty and very tellingly the more money a region spends on old age welfare the fewer super old people it seems to have again that's an indicator that many age records are driven by welfare fraud none of that means that all of the supercentenarians are frauds but it does mean that the studies which have been done about their

3:51 supposedly Healthy Lifestyles can go into the trash bin of science it also means that human life expectancy is much stronger determined than we previously thought indeed a recent study has found that if you extrapolate past data it seems that we're reaching a plateau of average life expectancy at around 100 years that is if no substantial medical breakthroughs happen were unlikely to make big gains from here on the problem is that the human body didn't evolved to live all that long and it's very difficult to quickly change what evolution has created over hundreds of thousands of years yes we can grow spare parts and try to replace failing organs but that I suspect won't gain us all

4:38 that much personally I think that our best chance of substantially increasing life expectancy is a symbiosis with durable Electronics in which we export our cognitive function on another system entirely this is also why I think this entire AI scare will disappear because it won't be us against them it'll be us with them creating a new species until that happens maybe we should clear up the mess that is scientific publication dear oh dear do you know the joke about the two guys running from a bear do you really think we'll outrun the bear says one of them and the other one says I don't have to outrun the bear I just have to outrun you that's how I think about Internet safety I don't have to

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