Oil Panic, Bearish Bets, and a Market That Won’t Break

0:00 First of all, the experts were telling us the month ago that the world was a wash in oil and we can make it more a wash in oil anytime we want and the Venezuela tap was going to be open and yada yada. You know what I mean? Like that was a month ago. >> There was a wash in oil. Now oil above 100, we have no oil left and it has to go to 200. You know, like another weekend of all eyes glued to the Middle East, but markets are trading higher today, primarily in my view, because so many people have been hedging and kind of concerned about a lot of market weakness going into the weekend that that kind of lopsided positioning ends up leading to some buyers on Monday on on just the lack of really bad

0:45 negative news or further escalation. But we're going to talk about positioning. We're going to talk about oil markets. We're going to talk about uh a whole lot more than that. Uh, first off, I'm your co-host here, Matt Caruso, with my good friend Jason Shapiro, who's my other co-host. How you doing, Jason? >> I'm hanging in there, my man. Hanging in. So, a lot's been going on. And one thing I want to kind of jump on first, cuz oil is trading down this morning. Uh, last I checked, I think it was down a couple of dollars. But, funny enough, I was talking with some some friends of mine. And I was just saying how if you turn to people who are the experts of the energy industry or the industry energy group, I found in the past whenever you go through these different cycles, regardless of what's going on, they're always going to talk about how horrible the disruption is, how incredibly like it's just going to get worse. It's going to take months to kind of fix and all the rest. And so, funny

1:31 enough, I saw something come up on X a post where someone was saying, you know, they showed the market price of oil. that this doesn't even begin to reflect the demand and supply, you know, changes and the supply destruction. And to, you know, to to what we speak about here so often, what do you mean the price doesn't reflect, you know, the destruction of supply? That's exactly what price, you know, will reflect. And so it's just funny when even having this very specific industry knowledge news it can sometimes almost hold you back I feel in these very quick moving situations because you know you can kind of feel like an expert like you know so much but you can never really know anything or everything rather I should say and so that's why I think it's just so uh important like the typical views we'll talk about each week and how to you know come to the market look at how things are reacting positioning which for anyone who was even an expert inside

2:17 the energy business maybe they don't fully understand positioning within stocks or with groups and all the So interesting to see that kind of dynamic. Curious what your thoughts are. I think I have a feeling but your thoughts on that kind of a viewpoint. But how do you find industry specific knowledge is helpful in these types of environments. I don't first of all the experts were telling us the month ago that the world was a wash in oil and we can make it more a wash in oil anytime we want and the Venezuela tap was going to be open and yada yada. You know what I mean? Like that was a month ago. Mhm. >> was a wash in oil. Now oil above 100, we have no oil left and it has to go to 200. You know, like

3:04 I'm not taking a side either way, okay? But I'm just saying that the the narrative that people come up with and I'll say this again. I I listen to a lot of stuff this weekend and what I find is I read people who come across and may be very very well informed, very very intelligent, very well spoken and those people think that this whole situation is very very bearish everything and those people happen to be Trump haters. >> Mhm. >> I also read a bunch of people this weekend who I think come across as very smart, very well informed, very well

3:50 spoken, who think that this is going to get better very, very quickly. And those people, what are they? You know, guess I'm guessing Trump supporters. That's it. That's what it every freaking thing comes down to nowadays. And I think that it is an important thing to see that you can take any data, any situation, anything you want and you can bend it to read and come to the conclusion that you want, you know. Um, and that's what I say here. So you want to make the bullish oil argument because of the blah blah blah and the end of the world and it can be much much higher and it doesn't even reflect. You can make that argument. Take you can find the data that will support that. you can do it. And then you can also make the other

4:37 argument if that's what you want to do too. Um I go back to I don't know a couple years ago. I did this experiment and I did a video where I was very bullish and I showed data that made a very good argument I thought for why you should be very bullish. And then the very same day I did a video that was very bearish and I showed data that would support that argument and I thought made a very good argument and I posted both those videos on the same exact day. Um and of course the bearish one got something like eight times more views than the bullish one because we know that you know bare porn sells. >> Um well baron porn clearly is crude oil is going to $300 a barrel.

5:23 >> Yeah, we're all in trouble. the economy is going to crash. It's going to be much worse than you expected. You won't be able to fill up your cars. All this kind of stuff. >> That's right. >> And listen, that may happen. I I don't I don't know, you know. I don't know. I think that trying to tell the future is is the dumbest thing you can do. And >> um make your bets, you know, make your bets. Well, that's why I think it doesn't have to be this black this black and white because we come into today and all this negative argument and you know oil opened up somewhat and now just looking at my screen here it's it's trading down about $3 $95 was over 100 all weekend long and so you know this is kind of the mistake I'd make in the past and it's like and you know especially if you say you're you're long the market or you're bullish or whatever it is if you have a vested interest in in what it's doing and you know oh they're not seeing this

6:09 they're not like what do you mean they're not seeing this like especially something like crude oil which is such a demand supply driven market. It's not necessarily like a stock where there's like an end use for that stock share you're purchasing. Like you know crude oil is going to specific economic purposes like in my view it's factored into the the market price. So if we open if we're down today trading maybe there's something you're not realizing. I mean not that we can't flip and go higher from here of course not but just having that flexibility of mind of not getting like kind of fixated into I'm an oil bull for this reason and that there's there's so many moving parts and moving pieces in this situation. And so the way I like to kind of position around this, and I'm not sure how you kind of do this, but you know, if I do think oil is going lower, to me, that's the hard trade because you're you're trying to directly play towards where all the news is, which you're never

6:54 going to be the first person to get that information. So what I like to focus on back to the kind of the same relative strength discussions or tape reading, you know, which stocks have been resilient when the market was weak. What do you think those are going to typically do if there's even if the market doesn't blast off, but if the market is just stable because oil doesn't maybe blast off to 200, that's going to give those stocks the floor to kind of go, you know, much much higher. So I I think whatever your view is, you don't have to get into the dog fight of this is what the news are. you're going to see oh this the market myth the market is is is stupid they don't they don't know what the data points are as if like the end buyers and users of oil don't have any idea of what's going on right now so I think there's different conduits you can you can trade you don't have to trade the leader funny enough like I used to have a buddy of mine on the trading desk and you say math you know he's like I always trade a lagard I

7:40 see who moves first and I I figure that's the direction and I go up and I try and pick up what else and I know I won't have the biggest move but at least I'm sure the move has started so especially when you're in these very high news news driven environments why get into the dog fight where you'll never be the person with the first information. Why not then go focus on stocks that have resisted the weakness that will only do much better if things go well or vice versa the short side if you're bearish. That's the way I like to kind of pivot around this. I think a really good example is one is NBIS which is uh they do AI infrastructure uh stuff. They they get compute together. Let me just sh get a screen share going. This is something that was a uh a really good trade of mine last year. I don't remember now if we spoke about on the podcast or not. Let me just bring that up here real quick. And so they got some good news last week that um Nvidia is

8:28 going to be investing $2 billion in them. And then again today they got another deal. They they made another massive deal with Meta. But you can see throughout the market weaknesses the NASDAQ has been going lower. We take bring up the NASDAQ here. You can already see starting here in early March like this was no longer breaking down. And we you know we have to understand this is coming from what the the backstory of this company was. So this is a stock I've been trying to position in. I've had, you know, fortunately I got positioned here somewhat on this reversal bar and then after I added a little bit and so this is a good trade. Not that, you know, not to just talk about good things. There's plenty of the bad ones, but just an example of how you can just focus on where the money's flowing ahead of time. So then after you can kind of stay centered on those some others we've been talking about are the optic stocks, things like Sienna. This we have been talking about for days or weeks. Similarly, this hasn't broken down when the market was breaking down.

9:14 The second the market is up, what are we going to do? You know, we're up 7% today. So I think that's just the better instead of fighting with the news headlines and trying to pretend like you know more than the market. I think this is the way the right way to kind of approach things. >> Look at MU. >> Yeah. Same data storage. Look look how strong this was all of last week starting on March 10th when the market went sideways and fell over. This was persistently higher day after day after day and then bang new highs. You're getting back to new all-time highs here. I mean, how how strong is a stuff? What what is this going to do if the Iranian situation is resolved and oil drops back down to 60? I imagine it'll be a lot higher than where we are now at 450. So, for me, why not get two catalysts in your corner, >> right? And this is the same story that we talk about every week. Really? Right.

10:01 >> Mhm. um you want to buy these relative strength things that that are in relative strength sectors that are benefiting from where the macro world is going. I mean, you know, that that's what you want to do no matter what. You know, your point about the news and all that, you got to get over it. Oh, the market doesn't see what I see. Wrong. Okay, I assure you they're you're wrong about that. Okay, I can sit there all weekend and read and listen and this and that and the other thing. Trust me, some guy sitting in his house in Rhode Island does not know more than what everybody in the markets know. All right, the markets know. All right, you got millions and millions and millions of people. They know. They're

10:48 paying attention. They know. All right, and you could say, "Oh, well, in 08, they didn't know. They were all bought into this real estate thing and then it crashed and so they didn't know that." Um, I would argue they did know because I worked at with a lot of people who were talking about that and like I always say, they were talking about it from 2005. Okay? So, they didn't by the time 08 rolled around, they they couldn't be short anymore. And I'll say it again, if that's how you feel, okay, that's fine. The market doesn't know the trouble that we're in with this crude oil thing. That's your theory. Great. So, therefore, you want to be long crude. Great. just let the market confirm what you're saying first. And it's clearly not confirming that today. It has been

11:34 confirming it. So, you could be good. But, >> um, that's the whole point, you know, that that's really the point because otherwise you're going to get caught. Um, and you're going to get caught bad. So, be bullish, be bearish for any reason that your little heart desires. I really don't care. But, you better let the market be confirming it first. And you better know where your stop is going to be um for and it should make sense as to why your stop is there. Hey, it went below this whatever I'm I'm getting long. I define an uptrend as above the 50-day moving average, so therefore I'm buying an uptrend. Okay. Well, when it goes below the 50-day moving average, then then get out, right? Or the 100 day

12:22 or 200 day, whatever it is that you find works for you, right? But get in. I mean, be bullish for whatever reason you want. Be in it because the market is confirming what you're saying and and know where your stop is. Um, and obey that stop. You have to do it. Otherwise, you're going to croak. I I I can assure you as somebody who trades market turns, the vast majority of market tops are when the news is the most bullish and the vast majority of market bottoms is when the news is the most bearish by definition. Okay? Because at that point, everybody when when it's the most bullish, everybody's getting along and there ain't nobody left to get long and then we turn down and then it starts

13:07 going down and oh lo and behold, then the bad news starts coming out. But you're too late at that point, right? Um, so I I can I can't assure you of a lot of things, but I can tell you as someone who's been trading this method that I trade, which is a turnpicking method um for 30 years that that's what most market turns look like. The bottoms are found when people are most bearish, tops are found when people are most bullish and all the reasons that they're bullish. So you have to watch out for that. You know, funny enough, I always had a similar perspective. I I always tell people the markets will bottom at when things are the worst. So, so if if you're trying to kind of wait for things to be good before you buy, you're often just way too late. I mean, look at the tariff stuff. I mean, things were

13:52 absolutely when things were the there was the maximum uncertainty that was the bottom. So, you have to be mentally prepared, especially like in your case where you're picking turns that you're going to be buying when things are still bad. And even if you're a trend follower, like before it's obvious to everyone, it feels good and people are high-fiving each other, you should probably have been in the trade already for quite some time. Um, or else you're pretty much late to that trend. So, and just think about the the the bigger picture. >> Have you been trading the market? Have you been involved in the market? Yes. Okay, then answer me this. Is it easy to make money trading the market? No. Well, you know what's really easy? I'm going to wait for all the news to be good and I'm going to buy. I'm going to

14:38 wait for all the news to be bad. I'm going to sell. That's easy. Who the hell? You just read the news, it's good, buy. Okay, that's super easy to do. >> Well, making money in the market ain't easy. So, that over time is not going to work. And, you know, that's why you have to have a systematic process. That's why that's what I love about this podcast because we're trying to talk here what is a reality of trading. trying to, you know, interpret the news in real time, talk about the realities of trading. And even though we're both discretionary traders, like we're we're making decreping the data as it comes in type of thing. We both have a very structured process. Like I'm not constantly bringing in new data points I haven't looked at before. Like, oh, someone mentioned this, let me see what that is. You know, I have a world view of process that I run. And yeah, there's some some, you know, interpretation, but it it's

15:25 running almost always with the same kind of indicators, the same process, the same logic, the same um aim to hold stocks for a similar type of move or same, you know, similar types of position sizing. I think that's so critical because the market's moving so quickly, you'll never otherwise be able to kind of understand what's going on. And like you said, you if you buy when everything's good, the move is over. And you know, funny enough, to that point, for those who are interested, next week we're going to have the uh market wizard Tom Bassel on, who's a systematic systematic trader, and we're going to talk about his process. We're going to talk about what his systems are saying in the current market. And what I like about Tom is, you know, you know, Jack Schwiger called him Mr. Serenity because he ran so many systems, he didn't have the stress of trading. He didn't want to have that stress. And that's the important part of what we do, too, apart

16:10 from just getting the trades right. You know, Jason, it's like trying to interpret all this stuff about the Middle East like and who said this and this Iranian uh IRGC guy came out and this was his view and he's going to stop the straight. It's such a stressful situation if you're on with size. My view at a certain point, I'm not sure about your process when you built it out, but at a certain point I said, I don't care if I make less money. I just I want this to be easier to live with. Did you ever kind of streamline your process like that at some point? I know Tom has and that's why I look forward to his thoughts next week. But how about yourself in terms of a doubt? I mean, listen on what you're saying. I'm bearish right now, the stock market, and I have been bearish the stock market. Okay? Um, and it's for all the reasons that I just said there a no no. I'm biased.

16:57 Okay? I hate the government, not just this government. I've hated the government. I'm a very rebellious person. I'm a very, you know, fight authority person. You don't say, you know, so it's not just this particular government and leader that we have. I hate them all. Okay? My answer to society's problems is let's get a rope and go down to Washington and hang every one of these people on the freaking lawn. Okay? I truly believe that that would improve society. However, that's not probably going to happen. But based on that attitude, I I'm very be it keeps you it always keeps you bearish when you're like that, right? But um when something like this

17:42 happens and a war breaks out, it makes you even more bearish because you don't believe that we're going to come through because you think that the people that are leaders are lying through their teeth, which they are anyway. And you read people and and you read how bearish these I'm super bearish here. That that's what I'm telling you. Okay? But you know what? All of my shorts were covered on the open last night because that's what my process says. Okay? Um so I'm not going to get married to the bearish side just because I personally am I've learned that lesson. Okay? And I you're talking to somebody who has been doing the markets now. I'm 58. I started doing this when I was 21, right? Been doing this a long long time. all different

18:28 markets, stocks, stock indices all over the world and commodities, currency, right? I'm super bearish. I ain't short a dime because on Friday afternoon, my data came out. It told me I have to get flat. I hesitated on Friday afternoon because my data comes out late. I hesitated. I said to myself, I don't want to be flat because if this happens over the weekend and the market crashes, I ain't short, I'm going to be freaking suicidal. I thought about it over the weekend. I wrote my newsletter. I did my research. I did my weekend work. And I said, I have to cover as soon as we open on Sunday night because that's what my process says. Is it going to turn out to be right? I don't know. You know, I mean, it happens to be right today. But that means nothing to me, right? The

19:14 question is where is it going to be later? But you know what? It doesn't matter. My process said get out of my shorts. I'm out of my shorts. Did I make a shitload of money on it? No. Made a little bit of money. Okay, good for me. Take it. Done. Be ready for the next thing. Right. >> You know, it's funny enough because, you know, you say you're you're biased to the bearish side. I tend to be biased to the bullish side. So, I >> You're freaking smart and I'm dumb. You're rich and I'm poor. >> Having said that, I I we didn't I didn't have one sell signal. I I haven't been short the stock market once since late 2021. >> You know, >> all I had was You were long from what was it? April of last year. So you you were ready right at that turn. You didn't keep it to the bias.

19:59 >> You were long from February of 22 for a good run, got out and then there was another time I got long, got out, and then there was in April got long and and got out in October. So I think it was three good long trades. Um, and I, you know, I say I'm bearish all the time, which I am in my mind. Okay. But I I'll tell like a really quick fun I don't know if it's funny, but I'll tell a quick story. My wife's son, my stepson, who's 20some now, his grandmother on his father's side died a couple weeks ago. And these were um and and her husband had died like five or six years ago. And these were

20:45 bluecollar people. Um and he he was telling me they were over the house yesterday and they were all scouring through the house trying to find her will, trying to clean up her stuff, trying to trying to do everything. And one of the things they're they're sure of is that her old husband has money somewhere buried in the walls because he remembers fiance who who was the corrupt governor of Rhode Island and broke Rhode Island. They said ever since he was governor, he refused to trust any banks, anything, and he just buried his money either in the yard somewhere. They're all looking for it or in the walls or in the floorboards or something, right?

21:31 And it made me think, that guy was mayor, I don't know, 40 years ago. >> Mhm. >> I don't know how much money they're talking about, but let's say it's just 10 grand for all I care. >> Yeah. >> If he had just put that in the stock market 40 years ago, >> think about how much money you would have. But he doesn't do that. This is why people that don't have money stay without money >> because they stay bearish, right? It's the optimists who get rich at the end of the day. So, as much as I want to say I'm bearish all the time, I am fundamentally but I mean psychologically, but the truth is I am well aware that you make money over time long. And that's why I say that's why you're smart and I'm dumb. That's why you're rich and I'm poor because you make money from the long side over time. It it it's just how it is. I know how

22:16 sexy being short is. I know how much how great it feels when you make money on the short side. I know all that. But I'll say it again. You make money over time on the long side. Period. But I I would say this is a perfect example though. The markets opened up last night. They for a second they opened negative. They almost positive immediately on the futures last night. I think someone would be so puzzled because at first oil was trading higher but the the market wasn't down. But if if you know I've been reading some different reports of like the record number of like put S&P put buying. Um there was I think last Thursday was the second highest short selling on record since I think um co or what whatnot. And I think there's a perfect real- time example of what you always talk about position like I'm even though I'm a trend trader like I you know I factor in

23:02 positioning is where to enter into things is you want you want liftoff when you start you end up getting stopped out otherwise but I think it's just a perfect example where if everyone is bearish if everyone's bought insurance for something to go bad then that that alone can kind of prevent things from unraveling very quickly you know so so it's it's something to consider when when it's such an obvious setup and And that's why that's why sell the news or buy the you know buy the news will will work at times and be the opposite of what people expect because the positioning is offside and it's such a critical component. So going into the weekend so many people that's why I think Friday late Friday afternoon we had a sell off right into the close people says I want to be out just in case Trump hits Car Island or whatever and he did but the infrastructure was fine. Just the positioning matters and if you take a look around if we bring up

23:47 um just real quick I'll bring up the uh AI sentiment survey. not by any means a perfect survey, but like I said, I like to use consistent tools. So even though I mentioned record put buying in the rest, I don't have great long-term data on those series. But if you look at what this is showing you again, the number of bears last week, and this didn't even include Thursday and Friday, this is as of Wednesday. I mean, you went up to 46%. The historical average is 31. people are negative despite the market not breaking down which is odd because usually sentiment will be tied to price action which price action has if if you would have told me oil is going to be 110 the the straits are closed wars kicking off uh there's all this I would say oh my you know the software stocks are getting demolished I would think my goodness the NASDAQ must be down 20 25%

24:34 single digits you know so people are kind of bearish in anticipation of a break which now what is causing it not to break down My base case view is maybe that's just the AI revolution is so strong and there's still money flowing in and different things that people are not talking about. I think there's a good example as well. Not just the positioning, but why people are late to things. So, for example, NBIS is a stock I traded last year. I happen to follow it, but for someone now who's so fixated on the war and oil, like a news like that is just totally ignored. Like, oh yeah, but it's going to come down. Last Monday, we were up last Monday, then we faded. It's going to be the same thing this week. NBIS that's going to come back down or whatever the stock will be. So these new trends kind of kick off and they're they're building up underneath the surface and then by the time everyone feels good I mean those stocks

25:19 are up and away. So that's why you need that systematic process where news is just not part of what you're looking at. >> You want to be giving it back to him. My single favorite fade because I think he represents after following him for for a long time now he represents very consensus thinking. >> Mhm. and his trading habits represent to me the exact habits that you don't want to do. Right? And you're talking about he he thinks that he sees things in the markets that other people don't see, you know, which means he's buying things that are cheap all the time and selling things that are expensive. At least he thinks they're cheap and expensive. So, he's always, so to speak, cutting the roses and watering the weeds, right? M

26:05 >> and I've watched him do this for years and I've watched him be wrong time after time after time after time for years and he doesn't know how to cut loss because he doesn't know how to admit he's wrong because he went to an Ivy League college, right? It's all the classic things that I like to find in a fade and he has proved himself to be a great fade. Okay. Um and the good thing is he's on CNBC. >> Mhm. >> And the good thing about that is he has to do disclosures on the CNBC website of his positions. legally. So, he has been for the most part and he likes to trade options because they're so, you know, you have to be really smart to trade options. You know, they they they offer you better riskreward somehow, which is >> false really intelligent spreads all the

26:51 time. >> False statement, right? They offer you better riskreward. Like there's free riskreward just because you trade a different thing. It's so stupid. But anyway, he's basically been long puts on QQQ, SMH, Nvidia for for four years, right? Um, and then he stopped doing that four or five months ago. He started getting a little bit more, I would call it, neutral. He was long some stuff. He was short some stuff, but I had posted on Twitter many times. I think it was in October or November, he was long the most stuff he had been in four years. Right. Well, this week, um, give me his positions. Here's his positions, and you can look this up. cnbc.com/dan

27:38 Nathan. Okay, here's his positions now. Long QQQ March put spread. He's long TBLA, which is a stock he bought two months ago. I think it's down 30% from that, but that's only long. I bit March put spread, right? which is uh you know Bitcoin puts right XLE March put spread SMH March put spread IGV March put he's getting buying March puts now in IGV right so he's short everything the only thing he has a long on is this one stock TBLA which he's been long and it's down 30% in his space since he's been long other than that he is short everything

28:23 okay So that makes me feel good that my process and my system made me cover my shorts cuz really the last thing I want to be is short when this guy is short everything. Can the market go down? Sure. It's all puts. So the market go down a little bit between now and the end of March, which is when these things all expire, and he'll still lose money, right? um but I think it means that the chances of the market going down a lot um are severely reduced when you see this and I make fun of the one guy but the truth is it's because of what he represents right we're trying to capture what the consensus is doing this guy has proven over time to be very very very

29:10 consensus so I like to it's someone I like to watch but I I wanted to share that because uh it speaks to what what you're saying. It's funny though that reminds me very much I don't know if you remember it was the fir is Paul Twitter Jones in the first or the new market wizards I forget now >> first one >> the first one and there's a a story he tells in there about because he used to he was a a top picker bottom picker often from what he mentioned >> how he's saying you know he was let's say really bearish oil and he waited for someone who he knew was a good trader you know and and but he was always bullish bias but he was a good trader he's like the second he went from bullish to neutral he's like I knew that was the time to kind to finally get short you know so he's like he's not to get bearish but Just the fact that the the really bullish guy just went, "Uh, let me go to neutral." He's like, "That's it. I knew that was a tie." So funny. Just similar story. >> Yeah. Similar but opposite. He was

29:57 following. Paul Ter Jones has the advantage if he gets access to good traders. I don't get access to good traders. >> Well, a really bad trader is as good as a as a really good trader. >> I think they're better. I I think that my advantage is Yeah. I I I pay it. I get access to very very bad traders and I and I get to watch when they all agree with each other and therefore I think that that changes the odds quite a bit. In fact, I know it does. So, you know, and the reason I say I know it does is because my returns perfect. That's the only way I make money. So, I I'm not smart enough to make money otherwise. So, >> funny enough, you you bring up uh Bitcoin, which I I don't have a position on. I haven't been trading, but uh just funny because you're saying, you know, he's he's bearish. If you look, you know, Bitcoin usually usually generally will will represent liquidity and and move with the general market that

30:43 something snapped back in October and we went much lower. But funny enough, I don't know if since the I think there was the investigations into Jane Street or whatnot and all of that which started back in February of this year, but uh you know, I wouldn't want to be short Bitcoin here. Like I mean I I because it's not an uptrend. I just part of my I try and ignore it. But this has been resil very resilient in building into higher lows here as the market hasn't. So the bottom panel here is the triple Q's and you could just you know for example just really you know this is uh not rocket science but a series of lower lows on the triple Q's then a series of higher lows on uh IBIT and then you can see even here especially this break last week like IBIT didn't budge and now we're taking out the March highs already. None of your charts are showing up on my screen here. No, you should be

31:30 seeing them. I see them inside the riverside here. >> It might be me, >> but I'm just letting you know. >> Anyways, it says sharing. Hopefully hopefully this makes it out to the video. >> But uh anyways, it just interesting connect. Make sure you have a stable internet. Yeah, something's going on on my side. Okay. >> Yeah, but just to say, so it's interesting that as the market, you know, just this past Friday, the triple Q's made the lowest closing low of the year. I mean, Bitcoin is easily off of its lows and now we're we're looking at a multi-, you know, multi multi-week new high here today on Bitcoin. So, Bitcoin has has definitely uh traded much better the last few weeks. I again am somewhat biased towards Bitcoin. I I own some, but I I'm not a big fan, but that

32:15 don't mean nothing. I could be completely wrong. The bottom line is it has been trading much better the last couple weeks, clearly. And Dan Nathan being short, this never traded Bitcoin in his life. I watch him every day. Okay. He's never traded Bitcoin once in his life. >> And now last week he starts buying puts on Bitcoin. >> Yeah. It just changes the odds is all I'm saying. >> He's buying puts on Bitcoin right when it starts to act better because that's him saying, "I know better than the market." >> Mhm. >> He didn't buy puts on Bitcoin when it was at 125,000. Mind you, he bought them when it started to do well despite the fact that the other risk assets were doing poorly. That's when he wants to get short cuz he knows better than the market. The Bitcoin people don't see

33:01 that assets are weak. They do, dude. It's just like what you were saying earlier. They do see it's in right in front of everybody's eyes. Okay? And yet Bitcoin is trading strong anyway. That's not when you short it. You do the opposite. when Bitcoin was doing poorly despite the fact that assets were doing well. That's when you short it, right? >> We talk about this every week. I don't think we can talk about it enough because that's how markets work and that's how trading works. >> Well, so speaking of things to talk about, um I know before the call you mentioned 30-year bond. Let me bring that up with the current commercials. Hopefully, you're going to be able to see the screen I'm bringing up. I probably won't, but I I know what it looks like. So,

33:46 >> okay. Well, you know, so we have commercial even though, you know, 30 years has come off pretty hard here a couple of weeks. Uh, oddly enough, we see the commercials have kind of sold more into that. So, I know this is this is a a market that you've been paying attention to. I don't know if you have any comments you want to give on it. I mean, this is one of my reasons, quite frankly, besides the fact that I hate authority, um, that I am bearish in my mind, look where the 30 years got super crowded, right? Um, and look what they've done since. And the fundamental bearish story to me is the one of liquidity. And if we're going to lose liquidity here, then bonds are going to go down, which is what they're doing. Um,

34:31 spreads are going to widen, yada yada yada, all of it. But like you say, the bonds have gone down quite a bit here since the war started. And, um, yeah, and no one's selling, they're buying. And that's that makes me a little bit nervous, right? Um, bonds I would argue are maybe the worst performing asset since the war started. Topped right on the war. >> Mhm. >> And went straight down since. They've been much weaker. You know, everyone says, "Oh, stocks have been holding well. Stocks have been holding well." And they have. Bonds have not been holding well. They're down almost every day since that, right? Um, and you could say, "Oh, well, of course, because oil's up and that's inflationary and yada yada but um I don't know that that's why, you

35:19 know, I don't know that that's why because no one believes that oil is going to stay up. So why would 30-year bonds stay down, right? >> No one believes stocks are going to stay down because no one believes that oil is going to stay up. So why are bonds staying down?" Again, this tape is the worst tape of all of them. And this positioning is the worst positioning out of all of them. So it makes me a little nervous. And then if I then try and which sometimes works and sometimes doesn't, but if I then try and build upon that, okay, if that's right and if bonds are going to continue to go down, well then what does that say for everything else >> in a world where we were counting on rates to go lower? We were counting on the new Fed guy to come in and cut rates as Donald Trump wants him to, right? We were counting on that. And if bonds are going to get go lower and rates are going to go higher, then what we were counting on goes away. So,

36:06 I just think that that's really from a macro and again, do I trade off of this? I mean, I could be short bonds because of this, but am I going to short stocks because of this? No, because my process doesn't have me short stocks, so I'm not going to be. But from a macro thought and a way to think about it and look at it, this I think is an important chart. Well, one that I've been watching that part of my process and I've mentioned in the past is I look at the JNK ETF, which is high yield bonds, and that's been trending lower. this has been like I I've had a bullish bias like I've been cautious because of you know there is elevated uncertainty so it's not a market where you're on margin and by any stretch uh and we haven't had a lot of stocks breaking to new 52- week lows which is a a big plus showing that there's there hasn't been a a big breakdown but this this been quite a weakening here in the JNK ETF which had been resilient throughout most of this

36:51 year I I it's partly maybe related to the war I know there's real serious issues in private credit private uh capital you bring up things like uh you know Black Rockck has been particularly weak. You know there's KKR uh you can look at Owl of course which is one of the originators of all these kind of worries. His credit spreading is that kind of an issue. Funny enough though with broad stocks being pretty strong and even a lot of the AI names the bigger worry was um uh being able to borrow to kind of pay for this capex. So, funny enough, going back to what you always say, especially with Worsh coming on to to take over the FOMC soon or the Fed as Fed chair rather. Um, it would be funny if that that wouldn't be a good pretext for him to be able to cut rates and then after, you know, add even more gasoline onto the fire of spending and all the rest and then even further kind

37:37 of re get the AI spending cycle and excitement and, you know, uh, euphoria going again for another big kind of uptrend just at the time where everyone will be bearish and worried of course. So, I mean, they just cut 20% of their staff Right. Um, they announced that. >> Say that again. Sorry, I didn't catch that. >> Meta just announced they're cutting like 20% of their staff. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> That's huge. Right. It's and and the bears will argue like me. That that's bearish because they're running out of money and the whole liquidity thing and the whole thing, you know, that's been my big macro bearish thesis is the liquidity. But how's meta stock doing today, you know? So it doesn't matter that I'm bearish or

38:23 that whoever's bearish or they think this is bearish or they think it's what this that the other thing. If you're short meta stock today, you're losing money. That's what matters, right? >> Yeah. Um so yeah and again the stocks to me if if you want to be trading it it's the same themes we've been talking about you know and you mentioned it earlier that the AI infrastructure theme to me is still the main theme and those things are still doing well it's a broad category AI infrastructure but certainly memory and chips. We know there's a shortage of that and we know it ain't going away anytime soon, right? And those stocks are doing well. The energy thing,

39:10 yes, I think it's a little bit tougher. You look at things like Oaklo hasn't done very well. The problem with Oaklo in my view though is it's very much a a full risk type of asset because they don't have anything. They don't have >> Well, that's what I mean. The energy thing's tougher. How are they going to solve the energy thing? I I had a um a person that I was talking to this weekend who I considered to be very smart really pushing the solar idea >> because it's a much quicker energy solve than anything else. Um nuclear may be the thing but it ain't going to be for 10 years whereas solar can be chucked up you know >> and nothing can kind of get in the way of it. Um and that's kind of what

39:56 China's doing and and all that. So he was pushing that idea. Is it right? Is it wrong? I have no idea. But again, if you think that that makes sense and that's the way you want to play it, well then >> look at the solar stocks and find the ones that are doing well despite a weak market and get into those, you know. >> But that's why I like I don't care why you do it, but just let the market confirm it and then do it. >> That's why I like relative strength because I agree with you on the power, you know, story and it's one I've been studying for a long time as well. You know, bring up a stock like PWR. I mean, this thing is like sitting right at all-time highs. Like like who cares about the Iran conflict? This is like like what 1% from or 2% from all-time highs just sitting there. Clearly they're, you know, they're their

40:41 infrastructure providers, electricity generation, all the rest. Same with Genova. Very, very powerful stocks and nice uptrends. They've corrected on, you know, low volume. Nothing really significant in terms of the breakdown. >> You are a ridiculous chart, huh? Is that one of the ones we were talking about when we first started talking a couple months ago? Um, it's come up at certain I know you mentioned the Vault ETF, VT. I believe it's in Vault as well, which is still doing well. But, uh, >> and that's a great cheat, like I think I've said before, is if you pull up the ETFs >> Mhm. >> for these things, then you can go through the list of stocks in the ETFs and you can find which ones are trading the best. >> Yeah. And you don't even have to be you don't even have to know so much because you're never going to know anyway, right? You're never going to know more than the margin knows anyway. But you

41:26 can, the tape will know more than the market knows. And so you can see what's trading well. I think that's a great example of how to do that. Never would have known what PWR was, but you find the Vault ETF. You look into the Vault ETF, you see PWR is one of the names. You're scanning them all and that thing has been trading fantastic. Look at the chart on that thing. It doesn't go down. >> Incredible. So that's my point. And everyone will forget about these girl stories because this is the typical psychological cycle is that you know things get bad then they get worried about something and after like oh that I stuff that was a scam anyways that wasn't true. Meanwhile there are these stocks that maybe they didn't hear of they're under demand because no one's going to be marketing the stocks that they're trying to accumulate actively and then after by the time they break out and have a big run then oh did you

42:12 look at this great stock it's up 80% over the past four months. Oh I got to buy that one and then 95% of the move is over with. So if you don't have a systematic process, you know, good luck in trying to find these these winning stocks, >> right? >> And you know, something else I want to touch on, you know, before we wrap up, just I think it's critically important. A lot of I've been seeing a lot of tweets, even members, clients have been talking to me where, you know, this market's been an emotional roller coaster and all the rest. You know, I think the best way to think about it is your emotions are going to be tied to your position sizing. And actually, next week we have Tom on, Tom Basso, for those, you know, like, subscribe this podcast, come back next week. Tom's going to be amazing to listen to and he calls it, you know, his his process enjoy the ride because he's always so focused on position sizing to make sure no one position is going to blow him up and all the rest. But if you're feeling

42:58 an emotional roller coaster, like that goes back to like the old trading saying of, you know, if you're worried, sell down to the sleeping point. Sell enough so you can go to sleep at night. It shouldn't be an emotional roller coaster. Maybe someone's trading more aggressively than you, but maybe they're comfortable with that because they've been doing it for longer or they're just more confident in their views and or they're willing to take on that risk. If you feel like it's an emotional world, >> they don't have the the financial liabilities that you have. They don't exactly so many things. There's a million reasons. >> Back off. If you're feeling it's an emotional roller coaster, that's that's your body internally. And if you try and fight yourself, it's not going to work. I've tried it. >> Back off. Go smaller. If you if you're going to be right, you'll still be right and make some money. And then after things will confirm you are correct and you can build into them with some confidence. But if this feels like oh

43:44 every every gap down gap up is an end of the world type of situation, you're just trading way too heavy. I I think most people fail because they don't get position sizing right for them for themselves. Under size undertrade under size under trade under size. I know it's not fun. I know it's not sexy. I know it's not exciting. But this is a long-term game. And and if you do that right, maybe you're not going to make your Ferrari this year, but maybe you'll make it in three years or four years or five years because if you're trying to make it this year, the higher probability is you you're going to lose your Camry. Okay, truthfully, we don't look at it like that. So, I know nobody wants to hear this, but I'm

44:29 speaking as somebody who's been doing this for a long time and who has himself blown out more than one time and has a lot of people on my on my thing that I observe and work with. And I'm telling you, man, it's you got to think about this over time. Or you don't you can just put it all on black, okay? And and hope for the best. But just know if that's what you're doing, what the other side of that is. It can come up red. If you're comfortable with that, then do it. But that's not an emotional roller coaster. That's going in and saying, "I'm going to put it all on black, and if it hits, I'm going to buy me a Ferrari, and if it doesn't, I'm going to walk out and say, "Hey, that was the risk I took." Okay, then that's not an emotional roller coaster. But like you say, if it's an emotional roller coaster, then you're doing it wrong. >> Sell it down. Get get small. You got to get smaller and you got to take it over

45:15 time. This is an overtime game. >> Yeah. Yeah. Definitely a marathon versus a sprint. But unfortunately, most people come to this for the sprint instead of the marathon and and that's tested, you know just >> and that's why they lose. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> So again, it comes down to what are you really looking to do here, which I've talked about many times before, right? Are you looking to actually make money over time or are you looking for excitement? >> So speaking of making money over time, again, next week we have Tom Basso on. He's been doing this for longer than Jason's been doing it. Jason's been doing it for a long time, and he's been doing it longer than I have, and I've been doing it for quite a many uh years as well, but we'll all be back next week to talk about markets as usual. We're going to follow up with stock ideas we're talking about today, NBIS, uh PWR, all the rest. We'll get back to the oil

46:00 trade and more and 30-year bonds, but we'll get the a chance to kind of talk to Tom and specifically ask him a lot of questions that I think Jason and I find will find interesting about what we're speaking about here. If you want to build a systematic process and even if you don't want it to be an automated process, how do you take that logic and build something that's going to work for you when you go to the market week by week? I mean, the opportunity to learn from from guys like this is just an an amazing opportunity. Like I Jason, I always say I I had to like read through these books a hundred times to to gleam every kind of piece of knowledge I could out of every sentence to have him on the podcast and people could hear him speak for an hour, hear Jason speak each week. It's something you should really be soaking up. And >> Tom Bos is a legend and and Tom Bos is is an incredibly experienced guy and he's a very smart guy and he's also a very uh

46:47 very calm guy for them. We're not going to say that about me for sure, but you know, he's very calm and he's very logical and he's very he's he's really important to listen to. Plus, you know, I wanted to outnumber Jason. We'll have a couple of Italians on the podcast next week versus him. So, we'll outnumber him two to one and we'll uh we'll be able to get our way finally a little bit. have to deal with the Hebrews one-on-one. In my high school, they used to say, "God, this school's like 80% Jewish." And it was like, "Well, it's 30%. It just feels like 80%." >> All right, everyone. Well, thank you so much. We'll be back next week. Like, subscribe to hear Tom next week. And uh Jason and I will be back as well. Thanks again.