Full transcript of “Oil Shock Worsen! Countries Running Out of Oil! Recession Risk!”. Click a timestamp to open the video at that moment. Need another video? Use the YouTube transcript generator.
0:00 Ladies and gentlemen, the Middle East war that has caused oil shortages is now turning into an oil shock that's hitting many countries and resulting in countrywide oil shortages already. Now, this could lead on more to panic, economic recession, stock market crashes. So, let's just watch on and see what is the state we are in right now. And I'll give you my scenario planning. Today's talk is to share everybody that signs of oil shortages are now emerging in countries and this is very serious given that many countries are heavily dependent on the Middle Eastern oil and once you run short of oil it spreads out towards the whole economy. Everybody needs oil. Every businesses need need
0:45 oil directly or indirectly. So this is uh getting more serious right now. So we now know that the world's most dangerous energy choke point which is the streets of Homos is now being choked. No ships, no tankers can pass through it. There are talks that not just the Iranian military is prepared to shoot down oil tankers. There are even sea mines now being laid and we don't know what the extent of all this uh thing is. We also know that many insurance company refuse and stop insuring all these oil tankers. So as a result, we have a situation where there are no ships that dare to sail past especially the oil tankers. So this is now a global fuel crisis that is
1:33 now spreading out across the world and hit especially hard on Asia. So Iran is very clear right now. I'm not going to negotiate with people that are not trustworthy. The last time I negotiate with them, two times they attacked me. So this is suddenly the cards being the tables being turned and they now have the cards. They now know that Trump is scared of them. The Israelis who listen to Trump is also scared of them. So now they're going to play this card really well and use this card against their enemies and turn around a situation that living under oppression from us for the last 40 years. So this is now uh how they're going to play hard ball. So they
2:19 are basically not interested in negotiating for reopening of the streets of Horos until three things are being met. Number one, America get out of of uh the Middle East totally. Number two, lift all the sanctions totally. Number three, repatriations for all the damage have caused and even possibly they are even thinking of repatriation for all the economic damage that they have caused from all the sanction. Right? These kind of terms, I don't know, Trump is unpredictable. I don't even think Trump with his uh ability uh will flip to that far. So right now it's very clear that it's very difficult to meet these terms. Even if the Americans were to were to get out
3:07 right now from this war and stop attacking them, I don't think they will give in all these three points any one of them. So it's hard to say whether this war will continue and this oil crisis will will be turning for for in whatever direction. Now, Washington already showed that they're chickenening out and they make a uncomfortable U-turn. So, the Trump administration, in short, just Trump himself, okay, is temporarily lifting all the sanctions on Iranian oil uh so that allies can buy the Iranian oil. Isn't this just giving in to the enemies? So they have allowed about 140 million barrels to be injected in the global oil economy so that they will
3:52 ease some of the pressures and hopefully some of this will be redirected to countries that have shortages such as Vietnam, Thailand, Laos and so on. But clearly you are funding the enemy, right? So the enemy with this money that they getting they could use to buy more weapons to fight them. What a contradiction, right? I don't understand uh this logic. I I mean I may not be presidential caliber but at least I know that in a time of a conflict I don't try to help my enemy. Right? So now 140 million barrels is roughly 1.5 days of global oil consumption. So you release 140 million barrels in 2 days this thing is over. So even if you release this globally it's not going to help a lot.
4:39 So I don't think that uh this going to be mattering much uh in the world of global oil shortages right now. Incidentally a breaking news just came out. Ministers across the world I think especially in in Europe grouping together to see what they can do to now start thinking of plans to ration oil, petrol, diesel and so on. That's quite serious, right? We even seeing countries now turning to coal and I think if they turn to coal, one of the countries that produces coal a lot is Indonesia. Maybe Indonesia will have a sudden windfall. But the problem with coal is that is very bad for the environment. But right now, I don't think anybody's thinking about the environment right now. So this
5:26 operation to Trump is called epic fury. Such a grandmom. But I think it looks more like an epic failure. So oil prices is going up and oil prices uh in terms of petrol prices, diesel prices are also shooting up significantly. Even in Malaysia with very cheap oil, I also see going up significantly. And the only thing that is helping Malaysian right now is the subsidized 95 RON petrol steel at 199 ringit. Well, I think that you know this is quite serious. I'm not too sure the Malaysian government can hold this for too long because this is a huge subsidy that they have to pay for. Now, which countries are running out of energy? Well, right now, Thailand is
6:13 having a serious problem. Laos is having a serious problem and there are some other countries they're showing signs of it. They see a reserve, but not for very long. So, let's take a look at who these countries are. But I do know that China surprisingly being a big consumer market has huge reserves of oil. I think they can last for very long. Uh Japan as well can last for very long. Uh I was even told that even countries like Bangladesh can hold for very long but not so much uh countries like Philippines, Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam and so on. They're going to hit really badly. We get conflicting report from Fox that says that Singapore only got 40 days of energy left but our minister came and
7:00 say we got months left. So I tend to trust our ministers a lot more. Laos, you know, is no longer at risk. It is already suffering the shortages. So 40% of their gas stations have been closed. That's quite serious, right? Almost half the country's gas station closed. diesel price rose by 50% and we were told that you know uh their fuel lifespan uh is one day or less than one day left and things like that. Uh incidentally la get their fuel supply from Thailand. So uh because Thailand now is also having trouble. So right now I think the downstream won't be able to get it. So this is quite a serious problem in Laos. Thailand wow shortages is already is
7:46 already uh emerging. So Thailand right now so-called the official numbers still have uh quite a lot of oil left in their reserve but strangely signs of shortages are showing very significantly at the airport. Taxis are now being hit. So the Bangkok airport taxis shortages is now showing and less than half of the taxis are in service right now and this is quite serious. A lot of them are now rejecting longd distance travel. If uh just in case halfway they run off fuel they need to res reup their fuel and uh the supply is not there. So these are signs of serious shortages in Thailand
8:32 already. So who will crack next? Wow. Countries like Myanmar, Vietnam, Philippines and so on. I don't know who is next. So but I think that there is some serious uh shortages that coming and when countries turn desperate what do they do? Number one they will try to jack up more price uh demand pay more for the fuel. But I'm not too sure that will help. At the very least their people will get angry. And when they get angry who they get angry with? Do they get angry with the Iranians or do they get angry with their politicians? That's what I'm fear most. Now I think it's important for us to know that oil is just the first order. Oil has spillover effect to many parts of the economy. The more immediate one is food
9:19 cost will go up a lot because fertilizers cost is being hit. Middle East export a lot of fertilizers. I was told they even export a lot of helium to rest of the world. I don't know what helium is being used for, but apparently helium is used for things like semiconductors and things like that. So that's also another shortage. Aviation shock is serious right now. I just have a friend that came from France to Singapore and he took not Singapore a he took France airline and guess what? One economy class ticket cost about 3,300 euros, okay, to Singapore. So you multiply by about 1.5 or so that's almost $5,000 sing just to fly from Europe to Singapore on economy class
10:06 that's very serious right so aviation shock is now happening throughout the world and as a result tourism will get hit as well so I think that we'll see a lot less tourists coming uh across the world because air tickets are just too expensive now I don't know whether Singapore will get hit in terms of tourism But I think that is already being felt in terms of higher air ticket prices. Now what will happen next if the straits of hormones remains choked. I will try to work out a few scenarios for you. Now this is not something I can just walk through with you very easily. I will also take reference from 1973 oil crisis where there was an embargo very similar to what we have right now and
10:52 see what happens to rest of the world. I think I'll do that in a live stream tonight, possibly my same time around 11:00 p.m. and we analyze what's the worst case scenario that can happen. I didn't say that it will happen. Okay? And but there is a possible scenario where Donald Trump just suddenly said, "Okay, I don't want to fight anymore. Iran, whatever you once, I give it to you. Will now turn to a better place. Oil goes through." Okay. Some people said, "Mr. U you know you are always talking about worst case scenario let me give you the best case scenario right now do you really think it will happen maybe you do I'm not so optimistic well there could be in between where the best case and the worst case uh you know you
11:39 pick some of them I think it's best that we we take a look at the some history and prepare ourselves for possibilities so that in case we are hit we're not so bad so but we are also ready for a sharp rebound for example just in case things suddenly turn and the world suddenly become a better place right anything happened with President Assiel doing all these uh strange unusual flips that even his own people are confused my guess is even himself is confused so let's watch on shall we see you tonight in the live stream at around 11 p.m. Bye-bye.
