Brief Summary
This interview with Dr. AJ Sani discusses the potential for a new national terror campaign in India, the influence of Pakistan and Bangladesh, and India's preparedness to handle such threats. Key points include:
- The possibility of a strategic shift in terrorism with a focus on escalating attacks outside of Jammu and Kashmir.
- Pakistan's potential role in provoking terrorist attacks through its proxies, emboldened by geopolitical outcomes.
- The risk of increased terrorist activity from Bangladesh, especially with the potential rise of anti-India Islamist groups.
- India's improved preparedness in counterterrorism compared to the past, but with a need to focus on human intelligence and address internal vulnerabilities.
- The importance of good governance and equitable policies to prevent resentment and instability.
Introduction: Context of Delhi Terror Attack
The interview begins by addressing the critical questions arising from the recent terror attack in Delhi's Red Fort area. The discussion aims to determine if the attack was an isolated incident or the beginning of a new national terror campaign. It also explores whether Pakistan has been emboldened to target India through its proxies due to geopolitical shifts and improved relationships with China and America. Additionally, the interview examines the potential vulnerability of India's eastern flank due to strained relations with Bangladesh and the role of Harotul Jihad Islami. Finally, it questions whether the government's treatment of Muslims is creating an environment that could foster terrorist activities.
Potential for a Strategic Shift in Terrorism
Dr. Sani suggests that it's necessary to wait for a definitive conclusion, but there appears to be a pattern emerging. With terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir being substantially contained, there's a potential effort to revive terrorist activities across the rest of the country. This could indicate the start of a nationwide terror campaign, although it could also be a one-off event. He highlights the uncertain global geopolitics and South Asia's emergence as a major theater of contestation. Pakistan has secured substantial support from both America and China, while India lacks prominent friends, except for Israel and the Taliban. The instability in Bangladesh, with Pakistan restoring its influence and Islamist radicals occupying larger political spaces, also contributes to the risk.
India's Preparedness for Terrorism
India is better prepared today than during the massive wave of bombings between the late 1990s and 2011. Most major networks of support, previously headed by the Students Islamic Movement of India and the Indian Mujahideen, have been dismantled. Local facilitation is crucial for outsiders to launch attacks. Despite the absence of major incidents in the past 12 years, numerous conspiracies have been foiled, with 82 people arrested this year for terrorism-related activities. The Delhi blast is an exception, highlighting the residual risk that some conspiracies may slip through. There's greater awareness, efficiency, and competence in police forces and specialized counterterrorism agencies. Intelligence agencies have improved capabilities, although there's a need to refocus on human intelligence in pre-radicalization stages.
Threat from Pakistan
The possibility of Pakistan provoking terrorist attacks in India through its proxies is very high. From Pakistan's perspective, it's the only option besides sacrificing its ambitions in the region and claims to Jammu and Kashmir. Due to increased security force dominance and international attention, direct action in Jammu and Kashmir is less viable. Actions outside Jammu and Kashmir offer greater deniability. Given Pakistan's basic policy and orientations, escalating terrorism across the rest of the country is a natural direction. While India is substantially prepared, terrorist incidents will still occur, with some conspiracies slipping through. There will be a price to pay, but India will absorb and tackle these challenges.
Threat from Bangladesh
Even without collaboration with Pakistan, there's an escalated risk from Bangladesh independently. Groups likely to come into power after the elections are viscerally anti-India and historically linked to terrorist movements. Jamaat Islami, the parent group of all terrorist groupings in Bangladesh, is already influential. If Islamic extremists gain a complete majority in the Bangladesh parliament, they will likely turn against India, either independently or in collaboration with Pakistan. These groupings have a history of combining with Pakistani groups to execute joint operations across India. Sheikh Hassina's clampdown had previously wiped out terrorist organizations, but radical groupings like Jamaat Islami continue their radicalization programs.
India's Ability to Handle Threats and Government's Stance
India is better prepared than ever to handle potential threats, but this doesn't mean there won't be terrorist incidents. India has survived far worse, with higher fatalities in the past. The country has better equipment, training, and experienced people, and is sharing experiences and intelligence more efficiently. However, if the adversary is relentless, something will always get through. The government's reluctance to officially declare the Red Fort bombing a terrorist attack may be due to their pronouncements after Operation Synindhur, which boxed them into a corner. Declaring it a terrorist attack would necessitate treating it as an act of war.
Government's Attitude Towards Muslims and Future Prognosis
While the government's attitude and treatment of Muslims may antagonize the community, it doesn't directly cause terrorism. Ideological mobilization is the primary driver. However, a better-administered state with fewer grievances would foster greater cooperation from communities against terrorists. The prognosis for the future is grim, with a residual risk of Islamist terrorism likely to grow due to global factors, regional tensions, and internal fissures. There's a growing pool of resentment in the country, and despite low levels of manifest violence, there's pessimism about India's future stability due to the reluctance to address problems and the progressive escalation of inequities.
Advice to the Government and Suicide Bombing in Islamabad
The advice to any government is to prioritize good governance and equitable policies, avoiding blind ideologies that disregard consequences. The focus should not solely be on benefiting certain groups or classes or on GDP growth, while marginalizing millions and destabilizing the country. Such thinking guarantees future instability, which may manifest in different patterns beyond terrorism. The interview concludes with a discussion of a suicide car bomb in Islamabad, with Pakistan's interior minister blaming India. This reflects a default setting where both sides immediately blame each other without evidence. The attack is likely a result of the Taliban Pakistan, a product of Pakistan's own policy failures.
