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0:11 stock market analysis and projections first the important information make sure you read this slide this tells you about our approach to analysis in the markets and about you using our information and the important aspect of trade ownership you have to own your own trade don't make trades based on what we say make trades based on you using all of the information you have and making your own decisions all right we'll take a quick brief here uh on the markets uh this has been an extremely volatile week uh and uh the stock market until like 10: this morning uh had really what was the worst week uh in a couple of years and there been a time period in here uh where we've seen a real
0:57 deterioration uh in the a second third tier of the market a lot of negative breath uh for a couple of weeks the Dow going down uh like I think it was 11 days in a row or 12 days in a row so it was a big declining period in here and of course today uh we get a big reversal um the the big decline that we saw basically was in two hours that was after uh the FED uh on Wednesday came out and uh what really matched the expectations the things that I told our members was that I thought the FED wanted to get to a 1% decline in interest rates which they now did uh 50 basis points and then 25 and 25 and then probably would stop and uh want to take
1:43 a look at things and that's basically what they said uh they took a few rate cuts out of 2025 and that Disturbed the market also uh and uh they're just uh indicating that they need to look at uh both sides of their mandate and that was exactly what Paul said and they're they're far less restrictive now than they were I would even challenge whether they're restrictive at all but some people would say that you know more normal rate is around three and a half per. maybe they want to get there at some time but it's not going to get there until the stock market has some extended period of decline when they start to get nervous or we get into what they really see is a recession with climbing uh unemployment situation so uh
2:31 that's what really got the market to start moving down and of course it was from insanely overpriced conditions and it was just ready to have a move to the downside uh and basically I warned also a couple weeks ago that even though this was favorable seasonality I thought there was downside risk and that was because there was so there was so much massive gains in the mega caps that I thought people bang that you had you know 10 stocks that led this big upside gain and then the other 490 stocks really languishing I think at one point there was only about 18 of them uh that were above their 50e moving average I know I already put something out on that
3:17 recently uh and so we had a big deterioration that meant there were a lot of losing stocks out there and it also meant that these big gains uh they would nail some of those down in these Mega caps and sell something else against it that they had losses on and that would then bring the market uh to the downside and I think that's what happened today we got uh you know pretty good indication that the inflation is not that bad the pce came out and it was uh a little better than expected and then we had this big problem with uh the debt ceiling and this bill that didn't pass and blew up uh and now they're talking about passing something a lot more simpler so that we don't have a government shutdown uh but uh as I said
4:04 earlier in the show um I think we need to look at things very hard regarding uh all of this huge government spending and I'm glad that they're looking at it and if it shake things up so be it because the markets would do that uh all on their own if the uh government didn't come in and make some changes so uh the the decline in here that we've seen did some damage in these markets and I'm going to show you that in the S&P 500 uh and uh especially even in crypto um which I'm not planning on showing right now but there was some big breakdowns in there uh in the short-term pattern so I think crypto is also have some problems moving forward uh the the selling premarket that we saw today well that reversed
4:51 quickly as I said and that was went from down about 60 something points in the S&P to up 110 so we had like 170 Point reversal in the snps and that comes at a time when we were kind of expecting the market to stop moving to the downside and you'll see that as I begin to uh share this analysis however we had expected that the stock market would move to uh another bull market peak in January there are messages out there right now that are saying that's probably not going to happen and that the rally that we get into January which I think may have started today though I wouldn't be surprised if it gave a lot of these gains up uh before it started to uh look
5:37 a little better um I I I think that that rally is going to fall short of the high we've already seen and that means that uh when we start to move up in January and I'll show you what that timing is that's probably a time to be selling because I don't think that we're going to see higher highs maybe not even till the second half but I will share that with you in the big picture analysis that I do in just about a week or a little bit more stocks for the week well they were down well over 3% now they're down less than 2% right now bond market 30s uh lose about a point and a half as that we see the 10e yields move up about 11 basis points to 4.5% they were higher uh of course gold market down about $18 and the silver market down a dollars
6:22 silver and gold as I showed earlier in the show really don't look good to me so uh silver actually looks weaker and has a significant breakdown dollar super strong but may actually be getting ready to Peak as it gains about 1% on the week and oil uh loses about a170 but based on the analysis that we've been showing where we expected the low to come in the low 60s to mid-60s it got down to about 66 now the time is kind of ending on that and it's starting to look a little better so oil actually could be better let's look into the stock market right now we'll look at multiple time frame analysis and projections uh S&P 500 NASDAQ we also weekly and daily we'll look really
7:09 quickly at those we'll look at our heat map uh that Matt has already given you some sign uh some uh Peak at uh and uh some really good stuff that we're going to take a look at here so let's take a look uh we will start out by looking at spy set this up spy up first cuz I actually wanted to show you this two hour chart that I think is uh pretty significant guly we have weekly daily daily momentum right there that's that area chart that you see and a two-hour chart here with the all of the momentum overlaid on it so you really get an idea of what the conditions are there let's take a look at this this spy so we we looked at the potential for a bigger decline here that didn't happen this one
7:56 at 6% right there is what made the the Russell low and then Russell got stronger but then it got a lot weaker during that period this is that where that S&P low timing came right over there and you can see in here these rhythms in here looked really pretty good and then we got into this next rally but you could see in here looking at the reversal Scout momentum has stayed very strong uh looking at that on the bottom in here is the disparity Index this grid that we're looking at right over here uh is Katie's favorite so I'm using it right now uh mine looks a little different on the weekly chart uh doesn't have the disparity index but I put that on there because Katie really likes it so uh that's uh that's what she looks at this this is still you know a
8:42 bullish look when you look at that now what happened was is when I look at daily chart right over here this low right over there which is this shifted low djv you asked me a question about this and this is the old timing right in here but I really think that based on what's going on at the uh end of the year you often get some shifting that's going on that that important low is right here what gives me that idea well this timing right in here and this reversal Nails this timing right there and that says to me that's probably what what has gone on now this cycle right over here I actually want to show you all of these because what you see in here as we're been moving up during this time period right over here positive
9:27 cycle you can see positive cycle what makes it positive well it ended above where it started made a higher Peak came down and ended above made a higher Peak came down and ended above made a higher Peak and now a lower low right over here if this was the end of a major weekly cycle I would say that makes sense but we're in the middle of a cycle right there on the weekly so that says to me that there is a high probability of a failure in here now we have this massive swing in here where the S&P 500 moves up 170 points from its lows or 17 points here on the spy let's take a closer look in here and there's that big reversal I think based on this negative pattern in
10:13 here based on the fact that the slim ribbon po the slim ribbon gave up and is no longer positive momentum that this is a failure area now yes it could continue up and I think that it probably will probably get some pullback or chop around in here and then then try to get up in here again so this resistance is basically where it is right now 595 at that 50% retracement 61.8 is at 5 9830 that would be a likely level for it to try to get up to in here into January this is the 78.6 right there if it got above 603 I'd start to think the market was okay but I have a lot of doubts about that based on this failure and these patterns and I believe that this
10:58 area right in here between 595 and 59 830 uh in the Spy is the failure Zone and you can see we have it marked as a cell Zone it's a sell Zone because it's resistance and because this is negative right over here it will really give me a lot of confidence if this starts to chop around down over here and we start to see momentum go negative here's the momentum right in here and you could see it is neutral we're looking at the Obi right over here which is still neutral right there and uh we will look here at the 2hour now what did I do on the 2hour here I overlaid the weekly momentum up on the top which is still positive I overlaid the daily momentum over here
11:43 which went negative but then neutralized that says to me that when it goes negative and neutral it's pretty certain that this daily cycle that I over laid on here that says to me that that's probably the bottom right there and even though I'm expecting pullbacks and for it to chop around I really don't expect it to get under that level here until sometime in the next cycle that's out over here after we get a failure but you could see momentum turn negative over here on the 2hour and uh this is a good look at how I can overlay uh all of the information in here and get a great sense for Market condition if you look here on the market condition indicator it did finally start to turn down over here but is a long way from Tech giving
12:31 us any kind of a signal and that will take some time to do that let's take a look really quickly as I switch over to the NASDAQ right here and I'll be uh looking at the same thing really quickly uh right in here the NASDAQ let's blow this one up on the weekly you could see the same type of a pattern right over there and uh as it still looks positive and momentum is still strong on the NASDAQ here you can see a different pattern now what I put in here on the NASDAQ is our cloud formation as it begins to form and uh it hit the support perfectly and began to move up this has a better chance of moving to a new high in January but again we're seeing weakness starting to come in in these Mega caps
13:17 so we'll be looking for whether or not it can get up and equal that high now that I have an anchor point then here I can put in the resistance numbers which I will do so that is a look at the NASDAQ here is your NC momentum uh as you could see and that actually stayed strong and stayed positive option bias indicator staying positive here and then another upward turn here uh on the uh uh slim ribbon po uh all of those more positive as you could see looking at the NASDAQ take a look at the Russell the Russell is a different story The Russell actually had this kind of a break underneath that support so you can see where it got support on the uh uh NASDAQ
14:02 uh it didn't get uh support at that level though it would need to get under 2144 for me to believe it has really turned negative here on the weekly the problem is now I want you notice I have this downturn right over here and projecting down over here uh out into March why is why did I do that it's because this turned negative you could see the cycle right in here either this low or this low it doesn't matter we've come down to that level right over here it's pretty well defined and this Anchor Point here is going to give us a sell Zone in here when I do the next uh update on the charts this gave ground all the way down to that low over here through this low here and it says to me
14:49 that the Russell is done the probabilities of making a new high are very low I would say 20 25% uh based on this pattern and that's why this is now pointing on the weekly chart to the downside look what happened on the momentum here it went from positive to neutral to negative the Obi has gone uh as neutral there's a bunch of yellow dots right in here so a very big deterioration in the Russell the Russell you know for for the market to do well on positive breath the Russell has to be in good shape but Russell actually is in bad shape so uh let's just look here at the mdy really quickly which is the midcaps uh and uh you can
15:36 see in here that the uh a midcap on the daily chart beautiful cyclical pattern in there this actually broke that low right over there so what that says to me is that this cycle points down and uh any rally in here is a fa is a failure I show you that because I want you to see that what's going on in here is that there is a very severe uh breath deterioration the market is not going to be able to go up without the small caps and midcaps you need to get solid breath on the upside and those are the ones that look the worst right now so I really think that there's a strong message that we're seeing in there and that this rally that I expect to occur into January the only one that really looks like it has a chance based on the
16:22 patterns at a new high as the NASDAQ but that's really not um would have to be be led by the mega caps which I don't think they've got it in them to do it so uh you know with the market uh now up 100 points and the s&p500 I would not be surprised that this is really all about the the the amount of The Upside move is all about triple witching here uh today on Friday so I want to bring in uh another chart right now that I think is very important to look at and that is the hyg it's interesting that we had somebody asked the question about the comp comparison of the stock market to high yield and this I think is extremely important uh when you look at this now
17:08 I'm looking back here uh to 20 to to 22 but I can go back further and what you see in here is that the uh on the bottom is the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 uh tracks the high yields very closely so you had this little rally here and the S&P 500 a little rally here in high yields and then they the shape is almost the same look at right over here the shape almost the same and then here you can see the shape is not quite the same though high yields were weaker the S&P was stronger and then the markets again the same shape rally sell off rally selloff so the S&P 500 here as I just showed you
17:53 didn't get as low as that cyclical low right here look what happens here on the high yields it has a breakdown this is really bad this is a very negative sign as it broke down right over there it relates to what happened back over here where it broke down right there where the stock market had a rally and then as you see right over here the rally right here and then began to move down with the bond high yield bonds high and that is really a very very negative signal when you look at that this says to me and that's why I have this downward path right over here that uh this takes you out into may now the weekly the next weekly cycle in the stock market really
18:39 takes you out into June this is something that I think is an important warning for the stock market and being that these tracks so closely and you have the breakdown right over here just like you had right over here and the stock market failure right there yeah you get some attempted moves to the upside in here but this is a very negative message that I see right there and I thought that was very important to bring to you uh to see that comparison I look at that pretty regularly uh but that's really something that I think really needs to be paying attention to if the high yields can overcome that and then start to move above that last Peak well then I'll be saying that was wrong I mean everything got to be okay after that I have a hard time saying that to
19:25 you with the stock market at historic valuation uh and at a period right now where we have disruptors in government that are about to shake and are already shaking things up very significantly uh tariffs are going to be in you know at first inflationary but then they're going to be very disinflationary uh and there's a lot of reasons to believe that the um markets are going to be in a very highly volatile period uh moving forward so I wanted to show you that I thought that was all uh really important uh information I am going to show you the bias heat map uh in just a second I think it's really important to look at that because it gives you some great information on all of our indicators uh
20:11 before I do that uh I want you to remember that this is the time for the give the gift uh you can get these non-recurring three-month memberships and get what I'm going to show you right now you'll be able to uh have that uh on the the to platform and uh you can give the gift to yourself or someone that really loves technical analysis uh Matt showed earlier in the show a lot of detail in this all you have to do is go up click the holiday specials on the front page uh and you'll be able to get these uh nonrecurring offers and for level two we'll send you back a gift uh of a $20 gift card level three we're going to send you back a gift of a $50 gift card and level four we'll send you back a gift of $100 gift card but the reason I went through that again is because this level four is where you're
20:57 going to get the additional bonus content uh that I'm going to uh show you uh right now uh coming up so let's take a look now as we look at the uh the stock market and switch over to the bias heat map this is the heat map right here uh just overlaid on these charts as you can see and if you look over here what I have here is the whole list of different country ETFs and then our stock market here is right there on the bottom the order that I put them in is a little different than what Matt did because I have this set up really for uh a longer term swing trade holding maybe for uh one to five weeks in that category MCI
21:43 right over there and you could see the conditions right in here Obi right there and anytime you see it orange uh then it's likely you're going to get a shortterm reversal this is ilf is now orange see it's red so it's giving giv you a likelihood of a bounce that will fail is actually what that's saying Brazil right over here pretty much the same thing and the key is how do these line up in here and uh the Obi is giving you a lot of neutral readings right in here the only thing that's green right across that you can see right over there is still the QQQ so I just showed you that the NASDAQ is the best chart and this is uh picking that up very clearly I'm going to bring over a little different version of this this right now
22:29 because I really want you to see the value in this this is uh a look at the um same the same type of a look but instead what I'm looking at is the um the spider selects XLE XLF XLV xli and these are in the top weighted the top 10 weighted in each of those sectors so I can get an amazing feel for what are the stronger and weaker sectors in here the stronger and weaker stocks in each of the sectors I'm just going to scroll down in here so you can get a really good idea right in here and then I can sort also uh by clicking up at the top so uh you can see in our XL xlc XL P XL
23:14 y xlu all of those in the top 10 weighted stocks in each one if you you know if you have a uh if you have a to platform thinker swim uh and you want to uh upload this and have it you can just get some great information and it will help you with all of this we'll help you set it all up based on what kind of a Trader you are uh and you you'll really love having this let's look at the uh now I have this set up based on this insensitivity the MCI is the least sensitive than the Obi the uh as Slim ribbon and the reversal Scout so we had a reversal today in the market let's see which ones gave you an upside reversal and you can see in here all of the ones uh right in here that gave you this shortterm upside in the reversal Scout
24:00 as it turned up right over there the slim ribbon turning up right over here and all but Target there so this is kind of the shortest term look right over there and uh now when you look all the way across right over here at ACN I'm sorry at uh at broadcom you can see it's orange right there and that's telling you that this Rebound in here is likely to fail soon uh in uh avgo in broadcom and give you some further pullbacks in there let's just sort on the Obi right there and you can see all of the stocks that are negative on the Obi option bias indicator that's stocks that you want to be on the downside and the negative side these are all the uh orange colored ones that you can see uh
24:47 right there and uh when they're orange and you're all red across that's telling you these are already overbought in negative conditions uh and uh I'm sorry sorry these are oversold in negative conditions and likely to give you a pretty good upside bounce in here when you look at that so that's a just a great way to scroll and if you're interested in the market condition indicator you can do that right in here and see which of these 110 stocks we're looking at are positive or negative remember that the uh MCI goes from positive 100 to negative 100 and you can see how many of these are in very seriously negative condition when you look at that those are certain any not stocks you're going to want to buy and I go back and click symbol and go back
25:32 into uh the uh setup that we had before so this is fantastic as you can see uh looking at the different groups uh and I hope uh that as I scroll through these right now you can get a good picture of that and then you can look at this uh slow it down stop it uh and take a look at each of these groups that are in here and the condition right now so I wanted to to have a good look at this because you could actually put this up uh right on your own screen and do it any way that you want to I'm going to go in here and select uh the in the caned groups the Futures so you can get an idea how this works on Futures all of the it'll work on all of these groups that we have in here and uh here it's going to load
26:18 up all of the Futures in there and you can see uh coming down across here all of the Futures list this is there's a lot in the list so it's uh filling up the black ones are are taking a little time but then you get a good picture in here on the condition in all of the Futures imagine having this right at your fingertips I mean it really does a lot for putting our proprietary indicators right in your view to be able to use that so I wanted to show that to you uh I think it's really important and again the stock market right over here looking at the Spy the NASDAQ and the iwm you can see that it's uh giving uh some some appearance of negative conditions except for the NASDAQ which is still strong but look at these other
27:04 countries how Negative they really look at how bad they are and uh I don't know that they're going to be able to pick their heads up uh pretty negative uh uh uh just did analysis this morning on the eem emerging markets and that's uh looking pretty bad again here is the stock market spy for one more look in there uh as we look at our multiple time frame analys is and you can see that right there as uh we're U potentially putting in a top here and looking at that daily chart it really looks to me like it's going to have trouble moving forward
