Brief Summary
Ellen May reviews the Indonesian stock market, global economic factors, and potential stock movements. She discusses the IHSG's support level, reviews the performance of several stocks, and analyzes Indonesia's GDP growth in comparison to other countries. She also examines the potential impact of MSCI rebalancing on Indonesian stocks, highlighting specific companies that could be included or see increased weighting. Additionally, she touches on the cement sector, MTEK, SCMA, and answers questions about various stocks, providing insights and recommendations based on technical and fundamental analysis.
- IHSG holds support at 7468, with mixed performance among major stocks.
- Indonesia's GDP growth is positive but considered normal compared to historical data.
- MSCI rebalancing could significantly impact Indonesian stocks, with potential inclusions and weighting adjustments.
Introduction
Ellen May introduces herself as the founder of M Trade and shares her extensive experience in the stock market since 2007, having navigated various crises, including the subprime mortgage crisis and the volatility of the crypto market. She emphasizes the valuable lessons learned from these experiences and expresses her enthusiasm to share her insights.
IHSG and Stock Performance Review
The IHSG is holding support at 7468, showing strength over the last two trading days. BBNI shares rose 5.24%, indicating a strong recovery after recent declines. BMRI increased by 2.81% with a gap up, suggesting sideways movement. BBCA rose 1.81% and is expected to remain sideways. BBRI increased by 1.55%, also moving sideways. The largest transaction in the regular market was Cidia CDI, but MTRAD is waiting for it to stabilize. BRPT is retracing, with a potential bargain price at 2290. The profitable stock in the negotiation market, Cuan, saw a large transaction and bounced at the 1335 support level.
Global Sentiment and Indonesian GDP
Trump is planning to raise tariffs for India, impacting global sentiment. Indonesia's GDP grew above estimates, with a significant spike from 4.87% to 5.12% in the first quarter of 2025. Historically, Indonesia's GDP growth was highest in 2021 at 7.08% due to loose monetary and fiscal policies. Compared to other countries, Indonesia's GDP growth is slightly higher than Malaysia's but lower than India's and Vietnam's.
MSCI Rebalancing Projections
MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) is a benchmark used by global fund managers. Stocks included in the MSCI become part of global ETFs, leading to automatic inflow. The top 10 Indonesian stocks in the MSCI include Central Bank of Asia (BCA), BRI, Bank Mandiri, Telkom, Astra, TPIA, and Barito Pacific (BRPT). There is speculation about PP group shares entering the MSCI index. PTRO was tested but hit a stop loss, requiring objectivity to manage capital.
Potential MSCI Inclusions and Weighting Adjustments
Petro is considered a strong candidate for MSCI inclusion from the Barito group. BRPT and TPIA may see increased weighting due to their large free float market cap. The MSCI announcement is on August 8th, effective August 27th. DSSA has the potential to enter the standard cap, while Antam and Cuan are less likely. TPIA may see an increase in potential weight due to a higher free float.
MSCI Small Cap and Stock Analysis
SSIA shares have recently seen increased trading volume and interest from conglomerate groups, making it an interesting stock to watch. Petro and ADI also have the potential to enter MSCI Small Cap. Unilever and LSIP could also be included, with their stock prices showing improvement. SMRA is being held with an 8% profit, also with potential for MSCI Small Cap inclusion. The retail sector is affected by spiritual sentiments. SSIA's market cap has surpassed the MSCI Small Cap threshold due to a price increase.
Indonesian Stocks and Investability Factors
Indonesian stocks face challenges in penetrating the MSCI due to investability factors and UMA's track record. Foodsi's announcement will be made on August 22nd, effective September 19th. The Indonesian economic growth data has positively impacted Big Banks. BCA's first half of 2025 saw NII rise by 7.1% and net profit by 7.8%, with credit growing at 12.8%. BJA is projected to have the best performance in 2025, while all four major banks maintain top rankings in MSCI.
Cement Sector and MTEK Discussion
The cement sector slows down with the economy. SMBR is interesting due to its pattern, with revenue rising 31% year-on-year. INTP broke out today, while SMGR has not moved. SMBR's net profit rose significantly, while INTP and SMGR's performance varied. MTEK is diligently buying up Sma, with Mtrade still holding and waiting for a retracement.
SCMA and Stock Watchlist
SCMA is also being held, with a profit of around 16%. Creating a watchlist for retracing stocks is recommended.
Q&A Session: Stock Analysis and Recommendations
Various stocks are discussed based on audience questions. Harum is undergoing normal retracement near resistance. Toba has returned to sideways movement. Bumi is waiting for a return to sideways. Wifi is being watched and is forming a flag pattern. VKTR is less preferred compared to other Bakri Group shares. TWR is retracing, with medium-term profits already taken. PGEO's trend is slowing down, with potential selling in the medium term. MDKA is being watched at 2270. Bris is recommended for buying near 2720.
Further Stock Analysis and Market Observations
INKP is building a factory in Karawang. Fanny is being held, waiting for a short-term retrace. ADMR is retracing and being watched. Bumi Bumbom is waiting for 408. BMTR is breaking out and being traded without sentiment. Java Spring is sideways, requiring patience. Arto's reflection is positive, with an uptrend. TLKM is in a sideways position and should be held. ASI is retracing after a breakout.
Coin Discussion and Closing Remarks
A comparison is made between Indonesian and NASDAK coins, with a preference for the latter. The discussion emphasizes the importance of reasonable investments over following FOMO trends. The session concludes with greetings of profit and a reminder about the Mtred promo.
