Brief Summary
This video discusses the short-term and long-term market outlook for the S&P 500. The speaker predicts a potential decline in the market into early January, followed by a rally in January. For the long-term, the speaker forecasts a 30-40% correction starting around August 2025, with a potential bottom in March 2027. The video also analyzes various cycles and their impact on the market, suggesting a potential low in April 2025 before a resumption of the uptrend.
- Short-term: Potential market decline into early January, followed by a rally in January.
- Long-term: 30-40% correction starting around August 2025, with a potential bottom in March 2027.
- Cycles: Various cycles suggest a potential low in April 2025 before a resumption of the uptrend.
Short-Term Market Outlook
The speaker expects the S&P 500 to decline into early January, potentially reaching a low point around January 5th. This decline is attributed to negative momentum and a significant gap in the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) that hasn't been filled. The speaker anticipates a strong rally in January, potentially ending between the 21st and 27th.
Long-Term Market Forecast
The speaker presents a long-term market forecast based on three cycles: the seven-year cycle, the 88-year cycle, and the 60-year cycle. These cycles, when combined, suggest a choppy to down market for the first four to five months of 2024, a rally over the summer, a bad fourth quarter, and a potential severe decline from August 2025 to December 2025. The market is expected to trade sideways for most of 2026, with a final bottom in March 2027. The speaker anticipates a continued upside into 2028 and 2029.
Cycle Analysis
The speaker analyzes various cycles to support the long-term forecast. These include the 155-week cycle, the 188-week cycle, the 147-week cycle, the 54-week cycle, and the 171 trading day cycle. The analysis suggests a potential low in April 2025, followed by a resumption of the uptrend. The speaker emphasizes that when multiple cycles align, it increases the reliability of the forecast.
