Brief Summary
In an interview with Ksenia Svetlova, Evgeny Kiselev discusses the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, the potential for US intervention, and the broader implications for the Middle East. Svetlova shares insights on Iranian society, the possibility of regime change, and the roles of other regional players like Saudi Arabia and Russia. Key points include:
- The uncertainty of US intervention and the importance of Israel having a plan for a solo war.
- The complexities of regime change in Iran and the mixed views on opposition figures like Pahlavi.
- The potential for renewed protests in Iran and the impact of a possible nuclear deal.
- The risk of the conflict spreading to neighboring Arab countries and the involvement of Saudi Arabia.
- The skepticism around trusting Iran in negotiations and the problematic nature of potential mediators like Putin.
Что происходит в войне между Израилем и Ираном? Вмешается ли Америка? Что говорит Трамп?
Ksenia Svetlova discusses the uncertainties surrounding potential US intervention in the conflict between Israel and Iran, referencing Donald Trump's ambiguous statements. She emphasizes the importance of Israel having a clear plan for military action, even without US support. Svetlova also raises the question of what would constitute a victory for Israel, suggesting possibilities ranging from weakening Iran's nuclear program to regime change.
МИД Израиля отрицает цель сменить режим в Иране. Кто лжёт?
Svetlova addresses the conflicting messages coming from Israeli officials regarding the goal of regime change in Iran. While Prime Minister Netanyahu has hinted at regime change, the Foreign Ministry has denied it. Svetlova expresses skepticism about the possibility of a sudden regime change, noting the ideological strength and multiple layers of protection surrounding the current Iranian regime. She also points out that opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi are not particularly popular in Iran.
Были ли у Ирана дипломатические отношения с Израилем до революции?
Before the revolution, there were no official diplomatic relations between Iran and Israel, but there was an Israeli representative office operating under the guise of the El Al airline office. Israel and the Shah's regime had a collaborative relationship. After the revolution, Ayatollah Khamenei implemented a strict anti-Israeli policy.
Как шиитский антисемитизм влияет на иранское общество?
Svetlova explains that anti-Semitism is more prevalent among Shia Muslims in Iran compared to Sunnis. She notes that religious Iranians often avoid contact with Jews, displaying a form of animalistic anti-Semitism. Despite this, many ordinary Iranians, especially the youth, do not harbor animosity towards Israel.
Что случилось с протестами в Иране после начала войны?
Svetlova observes that the mass strikes and social protests that were occurring in Iran before the war have subsided. She attributes this to the tendency of societies to consolidate around their leadership during times of conflict. The Iranian regime is using the war to paint protesters as agents of MASAD, attempting to discredit their legitimate grievances.
Возможна ли новая волна протестов после окончания войны?
Svetlova discusses the potential for a new wave of protests in Iran after the war, particularly if a deal is reached that requires Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. She suggests that such a scenario could expose the regime's corruption and weakness, leading to renewed unrest. However, she acknowledges the increased fear among Iranians due to the regime's repressive tactics.
Может ли у Ирана уже быть ядерная бомба?
Svetlova believes that if Iran possessed nuclear weapons, it would have already revealed them to deter attacks. She argues that it has been more profitable for Iran to remain a threshold state, balancing on the edge of nuclear capability. She also expresses concern that the current conflict might end with a deal that allows Iran to pursue nuclear weapons in the future, similar to the North Korean scenario.
Что означает экономия иранских ракет? Это признак слабости?
Svetlova addresses reports that Iran is economizing on its missile usage during the conflict. While Israel denies these reports, Svetlova notes that the Wall Street Journal stands by its claims. She suggests that Iran's missile reserves are not infinite and that it needs to conserve them for a potentially longer conflict.
Реально ли закончить военную операцию за две недели?
Svetlova says that the IDF has a bank of targets that can be completed in a week, fitting in just under two weeks. She notes that the duration of the operation depends on the tasks set for the IDF. She also acknowledges the economic costs of the war and the diplomatic pressure from European and Arab countries to end the conflict.
Может ли война перекинуться на арабские страны?
Svetlova discusses the potential for the war to spread to neighboring Arab countries, particularly if Iran attacks American bases in the region. She also mentions the possibility of Iran targeting glass towers and business centers in Arab capitals, causing significant damage. However, she believes that it is more profitable for Iran to fight only with Israel, rather than alienating the entire Arab world.
Вмешается ли Саудовская Аравия в войну?
Svetlova doubts that Saudi Arabia would directly engage in a war with Iran, citing the disparity in military capabilities. She suggests that Saudi Arabia might join a coalition if pushed to the limit, but the most important factor would be the United States entering the game. She also notes that Saudi Arabia warned Iran of a potential attack if it refused to cooperate.
Хаменеи покинул Тегеран? Кто сейчас принимает решения?
Svetlova addresses rumors that Khamenei has left Tehran and handed over power to the military. She cannot confirm or deny these rumors, but notes that there is no indication that anyone other than Khamenei is making decisions regarding negotiations with the Americans. She also emphasizes the importance of the Iranian regime prioritizing its own survival.
Можно ли доверять Ирану на переговорах?
Svetlova expresses skepticism about trusting Iran in negotiations, citing its history of lying and its extremist ideology. She believes that the ultimate solution to the Iranian problem lies in regime change, but acknowledges the difficulty of achieving this goal. She also expresses concern about the possibility of another agreement that allows Iran to continue pursuing nuclear weapons.
Может ли Путин быть посредником на Ближнем Востоке?
Svetlova questions the suitability of Putin as a mediator in the Middle East, given Russia's close ties with Iran and its problematic relationships with groups like Hamas and the Taliban. She notes that Trump has previously suggested Putin as a mediator, but has also called on him to first resolve the war in Ukraine. Svetlova expresses hope that Trump has realized the inappropriateness of Russia as a mediator.
