💥СВЕТЛОВА: Израиль ЗАКОНЧИТ ВОЙНУ без США? Реальные СРОКИ ОПЕРАЦИИ. Сменится ли ВЛАСТЬ В ИРАНЕ

0:02 Dear friends, I greet everyone who is now watching my channel. I am Evgeny Kiselev. I'm live. And with me live on air is Ksenia Svetlova from Israel. She is a famous Israeli journalist and orientalist scholar who, in particular, works as a research fellow at the British Royal Institute of International Affairs. Colloquial Chetom Khaose was even a member of the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in the past. Great authority both in her own country and abroad in all matters related to the Middle East, ever since the Arab Spring, when,

0:47 in fact, my interlocutor became famous for this. Ksenia, thank you for taking the time to talk to me, and most importantly, to my viewers. Greetings, Evgeny. I am very glad to be on your air. Well, look, now we are, so to speak, in real time. In any case, those people who are worried about what is happening in the Middle East, we are watching how Israel’s special military operation against Iran is developing. In this case, I think the name special military operation is very, very appropriate. uh, unlike the expression some use, the war that Israel started - uh,

1:33 against Iran, but what's going on there? Mm, let's say, is America really going to enter the war or what do the words about a 24-hour ultimatum, uh, which Trump said mean, while again immediately talking about the fact that there should be a deal, and I will be uh sure that there will be a deal. M. And, uh, will Israel win, uh, if America doesn't intervene alone? Yes, that's a great question. Ah, well, fortunately I 'm not an expert on Donald Trump. I really don’t envy people who

2:18 consider themselves experts on this particular American president, who is quite unpredictable. Ah, well, he literally just said that, ah, I haven’t decided yet whether I’ll enter the war or yes or no. You know, this reminds me of a joke about a blonde. Since I'm a blonde myself, I'm allowed to tell jokes like this when she's asked: "What are the chances of winning the lottery?" She replies: "Well, 50% yes or no." And so in this regard, it reminds me of something from this . I can only say one thing, as an Israeli, well, I certainly appreciate the assistance that the United States provides to our country. There are some things we cannot do without the United States, and not without being a

3:03 nuclear expert. And fortunately, we have millions, millions of nuclear experts who are developing in the vastness of the Internet now and who can definitely say: "Can we attack this nuclear Furtu site" without the Americans or not? I only hope for one thing, that the leadership of our country, when it made the decision to start this war, knew exactly what it was doing. And, uh, if there was no certainty that the US would join us, it developed an action plan that, uh, would be intended exclusively for, so to speak, a white-blue war against Iran. That is, only the Israeli army, which will continue to, uh, strike and do

3:49 what it has to do in order to achieve victories. Now to the question of victory. It is a very difficult question what is considered a victory. And I still, frankly speaking, well, the war has only lasted 6 days, so it’s not surprising, maybe, that we don’t know what the goals are. That is, the Prime Minister has already spoken about this more than once about what destruction means, and the nuclear program of Iran. But again, we hear from his own ministers and representatives who tell us that Israel cannot eliminate Iran's nuclear program on its own. And it seems to me that some kind of combination, probably, yes, that is, there is a scale of possible victories, and an absolute victory can, of course, be considered a victory. That is, for example, a

4:34 change of regime. the current evil, fanatical, extremist regime to a more moderate regime that, let's say, will not seek to destroy our country, right? That is, and in parallel, a general reduction in the capabilities of the military Iranian ballistic program and the nuclear program. This is the maximum program. I don’t know, if so, Ksenia would like to clarify. Look, when Bibi Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, calls on the citizens of Iran to rise up against the ruling Ayatollah regime, well, it is difficult to interpret this as anything other than a declaration that the goal of the military operation is ultimately regime change in Iran. Here

5:21 I read, excuse me , there are a lot of fakes now, a lot of inaccurate information, but I read on Israeli Telegram channels that, supposedly, the Israeli Foreign Ministry denies the version that Israel’s goal is to change the Iranian regime. Who to believe? This is not the first time that Neu has directly addressed the people of Iran and called on them to overthrow their regime. I would not draw any hasty conclusions based solely on this statement about whether regime change is the goal. And whether it was an operation or a war. They tell us here that this is a real war. This is not even an operation compared to, for example, the operation that is taking place in Gaza. Ah,

6:09 but, uh, there's one more nuance here, right? That is, it is clear that if this happens, it will be wonderful. And in Israel it is clear that they will celebrate and rejoice. I think the whole free world should be happy about this. And there are no free ones either, because Iran influenced the life of the unfree world around us, the Arab countries, which it completely dominated there and decided their fate, and, in a format that was not the best for them. So they should celebrate this simply, I think, for years to come, probably. But I personally am not familiar with many, how to say, experiences of countries where there was such a change of regime, a regime where some random general

6:54 came to power, subdued everyone, he could be liquidated, and the regime would fall. No, ideologically this is a real regime, with many layers, and protection, with its own guard, that is, the XI and so on, without woods on the ground, without any army coming into contact with the armed forces of Iran. That is, for now everything is happening in the air, and Israel is bombing, and perhaps the US, in the best-case scenario, will join in the attack on the nuclear facility in Purdue. This in itself is beautiful. I don’t understand how this can be extrapolated to, well, then the Iranian regime will certainly fall. That is, for now, on the contrary, I see a certain consolidation of the Arab Iranian

7:41 society, but at least those of its Persian part, yes, because it is difficult to say anything about the Kurds, about Ahvas, about the Arab provinces of Iran and so on, about some parts there, like Bulochistan, for example, what is happening there. But, but the Persian part is just now, well, and no one there would love the Aitol regime, if someone didn’t love it before. Ah, but this freedom that some Israeli speakers are now promising, and under the auspices of, ah, the son of the former Iranian Shah, Fehlivi. Well, this man, someone wrote today in the Russian telegram that he is as popular in Iran as, say, Chubais is in Russia. Uh, well,

8:27 yeah. like, yeah? That is, this is some kind of figure who is very popular in Israel , because he comes to us, he comes to the Wailing Wall, he says all the right things, but I didn’t know his chances. Rezapih the Left, Rezapihlivy the Younger, let's say that. He comes to Israel and is sad, yes, he was. I was in Israel, I was at the Wailing Wall, I met with Israeli officials at the highest level, and so on. That is, this is a person who is very much loved and respected here, and in general, in Israel they believe that a ruler who is good in the Middle East is one who is good for Israel. But this is our subjective point of view, and there is nothing wrong with it . But for some reason the Iranians themselves think differently. That is, they

9:13 still remember the Shah’s reign not as a blessed time when it was possible to be friends with Israel and wear bikinis in certain layers of Iranian society, but as a dictatorship, a corrupt dictatorship. And in general, this dictatorship led to the revolution, to those consequences that, ah, we learned about later, after seventy-nine. That is, the view there is completely different. Therefore, I think it is too early to talk about a change of regime. And perhaps the situation will change as military action progresses, but we are not there yet. Pahlavi is not the most popular opposition figure, that is, not popular at all , frankly speaking, from what I know. Ah, and in Israel there is a certain tendency to pass off wishful thinking as reality. That is, if

9:59 we press a little more, now we will strike the Iranian television center , and then the regime itself will simply fall apart, and go somewhere. And all the Iranians have already left for Buman or somewhere else. Here. And here's a little more. And there, it means, there will be, well, at a minimum, a, Shah's Iran, and under which, you know, we had an embassy in Iran. Elal flew to Iran, people worked there, many of my friends, elderly Israelis, worked in production there. there were no official diplomatic relations between the two , but there was a representative office, nonetheless an Israeli one under the Israeli guise. This was during the time when I was lucky enough to work in Iran for a year. This was, by the way, the last year of the Shah's regime. I

10:46 was a boy and hadn't even finished university yet. After my fourth year at Moscow State University, I went there for a language internship. But I remember very well that in the center of Tygeran there was an El representative office. And, in fact, everyone was saying in a loud whisper that in fact this is not just an El representative office, it is actually an embassy. And Israel then greatly helped and collaborated with the Shaf regime. And, in fact, this was probably one of the reasons why, from the first days of Khamenei’s rule, a very tough anti-Israeli policy began to be carried out. Moreover, uh, despite the fact that Khamenei especially wanted to be friends with the enemies of Israel,

11:33 he did not have a romance with the PLO and with Yasser Arafat , despite all of Arafat’s attempts to befriend him and all of his welcoming addresses to Khamenei, congratulations on the victory of the revolution. Well , well, I think that he was very wary of the stones then, but he hated Israel. He hated Israel, but there was also such a religious, everyday theme there. By the way, anti-Semitism is much more developed than among the Sunnis. Uh, despite all that, it would seem, yes, we know everything about the ultra-Salafis and so on, and about their relationships. With all this, uh, again, these are Iranian acquaintances

12:19 who are Jews, Iranian Jews who moved to Israel, said that the most religious people, like the Aetolians and so on, never shook hands with Jews, they avoided them. This is precisely such an animalistic, such a bestial anti-Semitism, rather, even more than an ideological confrontation against Zionism and so on. That is, there are many layers in all of this. But with all this, an ordinary Iranian now , in general, is interested in Israel least of all . And the youth, despite the fact that they tried to educate them in the spirit of hatred, I constantly meet Iranians abroad. Of course, this is not an indicator. Those who go abroad initially have more education, money, opportunities, and have absolutely nothing against our country.

13:04 But nevertheless, these are people who are patriots, and with a good memory. They don't resent their past just because the present turned out to be even worse. And they don’t forget about it. Well, and moreover, as if now, when their country is under attack, but it seems to me that again, in terms of the volume of protests, they have simply petered out at the moment. And I don’t think that they will resume now, under the bombings and so on. Ah, and of course, well, any society, it tends to consolidate in such moments even around very bad leadership. We know this from, unfortunately, many countries. Yes. Well, in any case, literally on the eve of the start of the war in Iran there were

13:50 mass strikes and social protests. These same drivers of heavy trucks got it, and this is the main type of transport, the main cargo transportation in Iran is on highways, by these same trucks. There are few railways there, the railway network is not developed. But somehow now all this has come to naught. Moreover, Evgeny, today there was a report that, uh, Ksir, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared and actually accused truck drivers of recruiting agents from among them for MASAD . That is, we understand that this is an attempt to cover up a completely legitimate protest that was in no way

14:36 connected with Israel. And the people who stood up for their rights, simply, yes, for working conditions. But the Iranian regime could not end these protests for weeks; it could not resolve it in any way. And now, against the backdrop of this general paranoia, spies, uh, Masada employees, agents, that is, are trying to paint over this protest in these colors, uh, betrayal of the interests of their homeland. I see what motives the Iranian regime is now promoting through its networks and television. These are not Islamic symbols, but rather Persian ones, which resonate more with young people and with the public mood. That is, we must, we, therefore, must now pay the prices of Great Persia

15:22 , well, not even for the sake of Khamenei or anyone else, but simply for our own sake. Right now the enemy is bombing us mercilessly, not sparing either children or women. And this is the theme that sounds there. Again, this is just the beginning. I'm afraid to make any such clear conclusions, but neither in one direction nor the other. Well, I’ll just say that this enthusiasm, which, well, just a little bit more now, and we’ll see a change of regime. Moreover, the Israeli army is not going to fight in Iran, as it did in Iraq, right? That is, in Iraq in 2003, yes, Saddam's regime fell, because American tanks were already, uh, driving around Iraq and had already entered Baghdad and so on. And then it

16:07 happened. And here it is not the American army, which Trump does not plan this in any way , even in the most positive outcome for us, and naturally the Israeli army is not going to fight on the territory of Iraq now. Nobody even imagines such a scenario. No, well listen, Iraq, Iraq is a country almost four times smaller in territory than Iran. And the geography there is completely different. Iran is a country of population, of course, yes, a country of mountains, rivers, a country the size of almost all of Western Europe. I personally calculated on the computer that the territory of Iran is approximately equal to the territory of Portugal, Spain, and France.

16:55 Germany and, I think, Italy taken together. That is, Iran is almost all of Western Europe from the Atlantic to the Polish border. And of course, to invade there and start a ground operation would be simply adventurous and hopeless. We remember, we remember that even in 1991, during Desert Storm, the military contingent that fought in Kuveta was 600,000 people. It's absolutely unimaginable, right? That is 600,000 people for small Kuwait and the Iraqi army, which is not the strongest in the world. That is, in order to now counteract something against the Syrians, Basij, and so on, but I cannot imagine what kind of coalition would need to be organized for this

17:41 . And I don’t think that, unlike in 1991 , there will be people outside the United States who want to do it. And they themselves, in general, are not at all interested in this . That's precisely why, despite the fact that, yes, of course, I follow the Iranian protests, I have many friends among the revolutionaries who fought there and left Iran, fled, literally saved their lives. I know how divided Iran is, but despite all this, well, at the moment I don’t have the feeling that the regime is already bursting at the seams, despite the very impressive blows to Iranian infrastructure, especially military. At the same time, we still don’t fully understand to what extent, let’s say, the more

18:27 enlightened, younger citizens of Iran, who used to go out to protest, are sick of this regime, right? Because, well, as we know from history, there is such a spark that thousands, tens, hundreds of thousands of people are ready to take to the streets and protest. And it happens that, it would seem, the regime is rotten, corrupt, and unkind to the majority of the population, but nevertheless everyone sits at home. Well, you can't blame Iranians for staying at home. They come out to protest, I think, more than anyone else, that's who I know in the Middle East. Every few years these rounds are repeated. brave, courageous

19:13 people who, nevertheless, are faced with a repressive, very harsh machine. And the last time after the, uh, murder of Mahsa Amini, that young Kurdish girl who was killed because she didn’t wear her hijab properly , uh, they were especially terribly furious , right? And now, now during this war, what is happening is that this regime simply catches any people on the street, puts anyone they can into jail and accuses them of being spies for Massad, and simply executes people on the spot without any trials and so on. So the fear, I think, is greater now than ever. And the fear is

19:58 that it’s not just that you died as an oppositionist, but the Iranians are going for it, right? That is, Ruhollah Zam, who was executed there 4 years ago, there are still many opposition figures who were absolutely brave, absolutely, yes, yes, they were ready to make this sacrifice, but they were not ready to be accused of being spies for Massad, right? That is, this is a completely different question. So the situation will be very difficult, right? That is, again, it is possible that this is now a scenario that no one can know whether it will come true or not. Well, let's imagine that now, for example, some kind of deal happens, and what is Trump more inclined to than war? Because, to be honest, he didn't want any wars in the first place . And this is a promise that

20:44 he also gave to his, uh, supporters, yes, that is, I don’t want a nuclear bomb, but to interfere in another Middle Eastern war, but this is simply against his, so to speak, such, uh, convictions there and, uh, understanding of how to engage in international politics. Ah, and let's say this scenario happens. Iran, well, this is such a fantasy scenario, refuses to enrich uranium on its territory, even if they intend to continue to lie and do something there illegally and so on, but formally they refuse. And then it turns out that all these sacrifices that the Iranians made over many years, all these sanctions, it was all in vain. It was all absolutely in vain if they go for it now. Perhaps it is

21:29 this scenario that will finish off this regime, which is simply rotten to the core, yes. And corruption, rampant corruption, ah, yes, that is, what was possible, Iran, what Masad was able to do, what he did, of course, is, as it were, explained by the fact that society, of course, is not monolithic and there are many people in it who are ready to cooperate there, yes, there with anyone, ah, and so on, yes, therefore, yes, uh, I think that such a scenario is more, it seems to me, likely that after some time, after some time, uh, protests will resume and the weakened Iranian regime, which, moreover, has surrendered all its, as it were, basic beliefs, uh, the inviolable right there to enrich uranium on its territory, for example. And then, that means, the

22:17 next wave, it will already be indestructible, right? That is, again , I hear and see that this is being discussed by the Iranians themselves, uh, by experts on Iran, that is, but this is all in the future, right? That is, we are not there yet, we are still in the hot phase, where it is completely unclear how things will develop further. Please tell me, is there a theoretical possibility that Iran already has nuclear weapons? And, well, uh, theory, everything is possible, of course . It seems to me that logically, if they had nuclear weapons, they would have presented them, as it were, yes, and presented this threat, which would be

23:04 completely real. And it is not necessary to use nuclear weapons against Israel. It's difficult, you might not get there, and so on. But, for example, the threat of using nuclear weapons against neighboring Arab countries, for example, yes, in the Persian Gulf, it’s 700 km. It’s much easier to do it there than to berate Israel, for example. Ah, and that would be a significant threat, one that might not have allowed, uh, Israel, that is, there wouldn’t have been this green light from the American administration. That is, if they had already crossed this line, which, in my opinion, from what I know, they did not cross it consciously. That is, they don’t have a bomb not because they couldn’t get it all these years, for all

23:49 these years, but because it was more profitable for them to be a border state, and to balance on the edge all the time, as if hinting that, well, if you press us too hard, then maybe we’ll actually go in that direction. And if not, then we won’t do it there, yes, there , but we will gradually increase our military capabilities. Uh, that is, if they are now paying this price and they have a bomb that they are keeping quiet about, well, it seems to me that this is the height of some kind of idiocy. Uh, there, that is, well, a country that has nuclear weapons, which are now under such a threat, uh, it’s a completely real threat, right? That is, these are powerful blows, uh, this is

24:37 public humiliation. Moreover, uh, when the entire Middle East watches with pleasure, uh, with popcorn in hand, as Israel, uh, every time there kills another general, and then another factory for the production of, uh, pla and so on, yes. So, I don't know, uh, it looks like they do n't have a bomb after all. The question is whether they will have such a bomb, say, in a year, if everything ends now, let's say, everything ends with an agreement, whether a North Korean scenario awaits us ahead. Yes. That is to say, I, for example, am very afraid that we will not complete the work that our Air Force has started now,

25:24 but will stop in the middle. It seems to me that this will be worse than if we had not started this war at all, right? That is, you have already gotten involved, then you need to bring the matter to some kind of logical, reasonable outcome, and stop now, even if there is still a week when Israel will have the opportunity to hit some powerful and serious targets. But in the end, everything will end with a nuclear deal again, and with the regime remaining in place, and the regime not going anywhere. And this North Korean scenario, it’s basically very alarming, right? That is, this is one of the things that , I think, is currently giving no peace to those who make decisions in our

26:09 country. I read today some analytical article that appeared in the Waswashington Post, maybe you saw it too, and in which the author suggests that Iran could now steal stockpiles of anti-missiles from Israel. Is such a scenario possible? Israel so far denies this at all levels of confirmation. I know that Reuters tried, by the way, it was the Wall Street Journal, Reuters tried to somehow refute this information with its sources. As far as I know, they were unable to

26:55 do so. Meanwhile, it's just worth noting that the Wall Street Journal, but it's kind of like Fox News, actually, yes, so you can't accuse them of being against Israel or having some kind of defeatist sentiment or not wanting Israel to defeat Iran. I’m talking about the itoral line, as it were, that is, how the editorial staff itself is set up. But I know a few people there, and they are quite sympathetic to the idea that Iran should not have nuclear weapons. And I, frankly speaking, hope that they are wrong. Again, they rely on American sources. Or maybe there is some misunderstanding, communication here. This is what this publication wrote and they stand behind their words. This is what we know from

27:41 open sources. Israel, but this information has definitely been verified , right? That is, well, again, as it were, that is, at the moment we see that Iran is not increasing, but, the number of missiles that it launches at Israeli territory, but, on the contrary, it has a rather serious missile economy regime . That is, at the moment we can say with confidence that Iran is saving missiles and fuel, because in parallel with the shelling that is taking place, it is using up missiles. 400-420 rockets were fired at Israeli territory. There are about 2,000 of them in total , we don’t know exactly, 1,800, maybe 2,000. Ah, but 40% was destroyed, according to the Central Archives of Information, uh, since the beginning of the

28:27 war. And therefore, the number of missiles is not infinite for Iran, first of all. And I really hope that, again, when you go to war, it’s clear that you have to prepare for the fact that the war will last more than a day or two, and you will have to shoot down regularly. But in Israel there are several systems that shoot down these missiles, so you will have enough of these systems in stock, in order to continue to fight and repel this missile threat. At the very beginning of the operation it was said that it would last 2 weeks. Do you think the IDF can really do it in two weeks ? Look, it depends on what tasks were set for the saal, right?

29:13 That is, not all of this information, it is public and accessible to the general public, but Tsal himself said literally yesterday that, in general, they have a bank of targets left for a week. That is, all the goals that are in that bank, the goals that were formed in the early stages, well, everything can be completed in a week. This means that they fit in just a little less than 2 weeks. This is about how long this operation can last. Well, it is clear that despite what was said to Netanyahu, actually, yes, that it will continue as long as necessary, but every day of such a war costs billions. Billions of crazy shekels. Eh, so it is clear that the operation cannot continue

29:58 indefinitely. And again, here, eh, there are quite a few such diplomatic initiatives. The Europeans, on the one hand, but also more importantly for Israel, probably the Arab countries, who are very afraid that everything that they have been striving for all these years, yes, that is, Bensalman with his vision of 20-30, and an attempt to completely transform Saudi Arabia, to turn it into a modern state. This war, if it expands and if it also includes spreading into the territories of Arab countries, it will nullify all these efforts. Therefore, I am convinced that , uh, they are calling Jerusalem now not only from Brussels, this is understandable , yes, but they are also calling from Riyadh, from

30:46 Manama, from Abuba and they are hinting that, in general, yes. Listen, what scenario, excuse me, Ksenia, what scenario, how could the war spread to neighboring Arab countries? Well, let's say Iran tries to close the Strait of Armuz and uh stop supplying oil, well no, I think there's another scenario, right? That is, the Iranians said that if they are attacked by the US, they will consider the possibility of attacking American bases on the territory of neighboring countries. Neighboring countries - this is exactly where we have the fifth American fleet in Monami. By the way, almost all ships there are now not

31:33 based in Monami. They apparently understand that this could happen. Ah, naturally, the huge American bases in Saudi Arabia. Qatar, the largest American base is actually in Qatar, Veit. Eh, there's plenty of purpose. And if, you know, missiles are flying, they might accidentally not hit an American base, but they might well hit some Burch Caliph, for example, right? Oh, and I remember, and you remember, the threats against the Arab regimes from Iran in 2019, just when they shelled the Iranian oil fields, Quraysi, Avqaiq, took Israel out, excuse me, the South Korean oil fields, and put them out of action, for a month, by the way, yes, at the same time there were threats, ah, to the glass towers, the

32:20 glass towers of the Arab monarchies. Well, we know about glass towers. Every time they build another biggest tower in the world there, it's clear that the damage, uh, could be colossal. Imagine the business center of Dubai or Reed now, yes, and about 50, for example, heavy Iranian missiles fall there, right? That is, this is something that these capitals would definitely not want to see. Well, again, in my opinion, this is some kind of extreme scenario. And, firstly, because it is much more profitable for Iran to fight only with Israel, and not with the United States and the entire Arab world at once. That is, to turn against themselves those countries that are now practically crawling on their knees to Tehran and saying that we condemn Israeli

33:07 aggression. All Arab countries, absolutely all of them, yes, that is, all of them with whom Israel maintains relations, every single one of them, ah, expressed condemnation of Israeli aggression, right? That is, Saudi Arabia and even Egypt set the tone. Egypt, where, well, I'll just remind everyone that relations between Egypt and Iran have been strained since the assassination of President Anwar Sadat, uh, by an officer who belonged to the extremist group the Muslim Brotherhood. And then, after this murder, the Iranians named one of the streets in Tehran after this officer, Khalid Al-Ilambul. Well, from that moment on, there was a break in relations and the Egyptians, and we essentially have the same regime in power now as before

33:53 Sadate, they haven’t forgotten this, they hate the Iranians so much that they just, uh, they shake at the mere mention of the Iranians. But nevertheless, they also expressed this kind of concern, tension and everything. and condemned Israeli actions. It's clear? It is clear that all this happens not because of a good life, but mainly because of fear . And the oilmen support Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, which is unlikely to be able to defend itself as well as Israel does. In case of war, it is clear that their army is not one of the strongest, not even in the world, but in the region. And with all the weapons they buy from the United States. Therefore, there are many such regional interests here that are tied to each other, as it

34:38 were, right? That is, the Armuz Strait and the closure of the Armuz Strait are only part of this. And, for example, the way Abuda, Abubi, Dubai and Rian are burning, and this is something that the Iranians have already simply undertaken. They blew up Port Sharjin there too , there was an explosion there in 2020, I think. We've done this more than once. Therefore, the Arabs have no reason not to believe that Iran will be capable of this, in general, when it is pushed to the wall . So, if the Iranian regime takes some radical adventuristic steps , could it be that, say, Saudi Arabia will enter into a war with Iran or not? Well, I don't really know what that means.

35:24 How exactly can Saudi Arabia go about a war, right? I mean, well, she can send a couple of planes, probably, but the quantities are just completely different. Saudi army and Iranian army, right? That is, they should not even be placed on the same board next to each other in terms of possibility. So I think if that happens, more strongly, you want to say, "No, no, absolutely." That is, these countries are not able to defend themselves. There's nothing they can actually do if this happens. But they cannot repel this threat in any way. Therefore, nominally, of course, they can act, they can join some coalition, if they too are pushed to the limit. But the most important thing, perhaps, is that if this scenario really comes to fruition, the United States will enter the game. That is,

36:10 they will no longer be able to continue to play the role of observer and say, well, let's see how things are going, so Vitkov will once again try to achieve a deal with the backpacks, as it were, right? That is, the chances, by the way, I initially assessed the chances of reaching a deal as very low, because the Iranian maximum and the American minimum simply do not meet. So again, I don’t know to what extent the Iranian regime will be ready now. Perhaps the sight of burning Tehran made him a little more accommodating. I don't know that, right? That is, no one knows this yet, but what has happened so far has been completely obvious that they are not changing their key positions . Well, that’s why they kind of gave her a chance for diplomacy, but it’s not like this can continue indefinitely. Biden has been conducting these half-hearted negotiations

36:58 with the Iranians for almost 4 years, and they have led nowhere. That is, Biden was not prepared to sign a worse deal than Obama signed in his time. That's why it didn't happen. And Trump is not ready to sign such a deal, apparently. That is why this aggravation occurred against this background, against the background of the failure of diplomacy against the background of Iranian stubbornness. ah, and the inability to show any flexibility, to meet halfway, despite the warnings that were constantly heard. And, by the way, in April of this year Saudi Arabia sent its Minister of Foreign Affairs to Tehran, a completely unprecedented event. And he warns the country's president, Massoud Bezshkian, and other military leaders that if Iran refuses to cooperate, it will be

37:44 attacked. This is literally what Saudi Arabia knew. knew that such a scenario was more than possible, she was apparently preparing for it and was very, very worried that this would actually happen, because she understands that we all know how one can enter into war. Nobody knows how to get out of it and what the dynamics will be in the process. Well, Russia knows most of this now, yes, at its school. Knows how to start, but doesn’t know how to eat it all up later. And that is why the Iranians actually provoked all this, what is happening now. And the level, let's say, of who makes decisions there. We hear various reports that Haminai Mol is no longer a destiny. I am not inclined to believe any rumors. No one spoke to his personal psychiatrist. We

38:30 cannot know this. Yes. For now, he is officially considered the spiritual leader there. And he is also surrounded by figures who are no less accommodating than he is. No more accommodating than he is. So, yes, that is, now Trump is giving another chance to diplomacy. Let's say it fails, then if it fails, then it means there are no options other than continuing the escalation. And then absolutely everyone will be drawn into the game, including the Arab countries and regions that want this the least in the world. Yes. But at the same time, we still hear versions of this kind that Khamenei, together with his closest associates and

39:19 family, left Tehran somewhere to the east of Rana, perhaps to Kharasan, to the Mishhad region, the most remote region from Israel. Although, by the way, missiles have already reached there too. Here. And he handed over all power to the military. Could this be possible? I can neither confirm nor deny, to be honest . I don't know that. Because even if he transferred some decision-making processes in military terms, did he transfer to the military the authority to, for example, conduct negotiations with the Americans, right? That is, we know that they are constantly exchanging messages there, and the Omanis are still in business, the Omani intermediaries, and the Swiss are transmitting quietly

40:06 but calmly, but they are transmitting these messages to each other. And so far there are no indications that anyone there has not made a decision. Again, yes, I mean, I don't like to speculate because usually it all comes from Iranian opposition channels, which I really love their work, but I understand that they have their own specific interest in presenting the situation in a certain way. It is not a fact that this corresponds to the truth. I don’t know who makes the decision, but for now, that someone is not crawling on his knees to the White House, holding in his teeth the refusal to enrich uranium on his territory. This is what needs to be done. So, for now, this does n’t exist, this action, everything is open, right? That is, again, we are

40:53 constantly talking about how this physiologically intolerable regime is, and how it can suddenly become more accommodating, more flexible, more gentle, at least in order to save itself first of all. That is, until now it seemed to me that the Iranian regime, well, despite the fact that they are crazy fanatics who are ready to send other people to their deaths with pleasure - Palestinians, Lebanese, Syrians, Germans, and so on - they still want to protect themselves and, uh, contribute to the survival of the regime. This is goal number 1 2 3 and their priority. And if they choose war now, it means that they cannot survive at any cost, that they believe that maybe if they

41:40 abandon some of their fundamental demands, postulates, then maybe they will not survive in any case , and then war is better. My friends, Ksenia Svetlova and I are talking live on air. Thank you for rooting for us, write all sorts of comments and remarks. Eh, you know, Almaz Ibragimov decided to poke fun at me and wrote: Kiselyov blurted out some nonsense about how Muslim Saudi Arabia can fight Muslim Iran. Diamond. Oh, and what, you don’t know, for example, that for almost 10 years Muslim Iraq fought with Muslim Iran? Or don’t you

42:27 remember how Muslim Iraq, the same one, attacked and occupied the completely Muslim Kuwait? And Muslim Egypt, which fought with Muslim Yemen and Saudi Arabia, neighboring Arab countries took part, helped the Western coalition. liberate Kuwait. I can’t think of any other examples of wars that took place between Muslim countries, but they were Egypt and Yemen. Egypt with Yemen. And the Egyptian intervention in Yemen of the revolutionaries, that is, the communists there against the suckers and in fact against

43:13 Saudi Arabia, which Egypt, Muslim Egypt, very successfully ruled Muslim Saudi Arabia with chemical weapons. That's how it was, yes. And, in my opinion, there was a conflict between Libya and Egypt at one time. Yes. Yes. Well, it didn’t come to a full-scale war, but there was Libyan intervention in Chad, for example. And I'm not even talking about the fact that Muslim Hamas cut down Muslim Fatah in the Gaza Strip, and now they are killing any dissenters, also Muslim brothers there . So, and forgive me, please, but Black September was in the distant, true, already 1970 , but that was, yes, when the

43:58 Muslim Palestinians raised a rebellion against the Jordanian authorities and were then brutally suppressed. Well, it certainly never bothers anyone. This, that is, involvement in the Muslim ummah, has never bothered anyone at all. And all these Sunni-Shiite feuds too, they are pushed aside when it is necessary to work together against some other enemy. So, Sunni Hamas, for example, worked with Shiite Iran and Sizbollah against Israel, for example. Yes, that also happened. Here is my regular viewer, the faithful and devoted Marina Bruneld, who lives in Germany, who wrote that she

44:47 spoke on the phone with her Iranian student. And she said that her family had left Tehran yesterday and that the city was emptying out. Indeed, we have seen numerous videos of roads leading from Tehran to various other parts of the country, clogged with cars. It looks like the outcome is actually happening there . Can you understand people? So why should they expose themselves to missiles for the sake of the interests of a regime that the majority of Iranians hate and despise? Well, at best they are indifferent, but certainly now few people there really support him with the same ardent revolutionary fervor as they did in

45:32 1979. Yes. And tell me, please, is it possible at all during negotiations, in your opinion? I ask you as a person who knows the Arab East well, and the Muslim East in general. Is it possible in principle to trust Iran in these negotiations, which may resume? Well, uh, that always comes up as a question. In general, I think this applies to any country. It's not just the Muslim East here, right? Because, that means, we have examples from countries that are closer to you, Evgeny, yes, there are the Minsk negotiations and so on, yes, there are all sorts of examples that can be cited from European countries

46:17 that were born. Maltov Bibbentrop, and so on. Can you trust anyone at all? Ah, well, uh, a regime that has been caught lying more than once, and a fanatical, extremist regime that, ah, there, if there was such an opportunity, then, naturally, they would do it, they would drive out of this world, ah, the Jewish state, which is in the Middle East, well, and at the same time they would destroy a couple of Arab Muslim neighbors , ah, and they would seize their oil fields and so on. Ah, of course, I doubt that any agreement, even the most monitoring one, the most, uh, traceable, that is, even if they check every centimeter of land there, ah, you can still trust them completely , right? That is, in principle, the

47:03 solution to the Iranian problem lies, of course, in regime change. But the question is, how can we achieve this goal? Is it possible to reach it through violent actions? Is it possible to come to her through this and bomb them now to such an extent? And so that they themselves would understand, they would overthrow the regime. But in Gaza we still see Hamas, despite the fact that a year and 6 months of war, and Gaza has been completely destroyed . And there are no more Palestinian cities in Gaza. Despite all this, Hamas is still effectively in power. That is, I’m kind of getting at the fact that this is a very difficult goal. It is very difficult to achieve. And there is a reason why various American administrations, there was Bush and so on, having burned their fingers in Iraq, having burned their fingers in Afghanistan, well, they understand that Iran

47:49 is, in general, a very tough nut to crack, which just like that, with some kind of bombing from the air , this issue cannot be resolved. A, so it’s a kind of dilemma for my country, for my safety, the safety of my daughters, who now regularly run, so, all together, yes, there in a safe space. And a little daughter, like a six-year-old, who already knows all these terms and says: “Yes, it’s Iran that’s bombing us now, why should she know this for 6 years?” But of course, I am terribly afraid to think that we will again find ourselves in a situation where there is another agreement, we have signed something again, and again we will be thinking with bated breath about what they are really thinking now. That is, this is the same North Korean scenario. The

48:35 problem is that there are no alternatives. This is not the situation. We have a great alternative, simple, affordable, and some kind of bad alternative. And we choose the bad one consciously. All the alternatives are not very good, to be honest. All alternatives are problematic. Well, look, one more question, if possible. Trump suddenly announced that he had recently spoken with Putin again, and said that I had called on him, I quote closely to the text, to first deal with Russia and end the war with Ukraine, and then offer the services of a mediator in the Middle East. How is it? Well, first of all, I was glad to hear these

49:21 words, because up until now, Trambit himself had suggested Putin as a mediator more than once. And the last time he offered him as a mediator in negotiations with Hamas. The Hamas delegation literally just visited Moscow once again, right in the midst of this war of ours and so on. This is no longer surprising. Ah, well, the Taliban have arrived, the Taliban have arrived solemnly in St. Petersburg for the St. Petersburg Economic Forum. But this is generally a shame and disgrace. Partners are like what kind of country, what kind of partners. Everything is clear, it’s as if there are no doubts here. Hamas is in place and the Taliban too, Ibala might be running around somewhere , yes, there, if it is appropriate. Ah, but the thing is that Trump

50:07 may, again, he changes his mind all the time. It is difficult to draw any clear conclusions based on this. So he said that you, Vladimir, first need to deal with your problems there, and then with our problems with Iran. Ah, but tomorrow he may change his mind and say something else, like, yes, because when Trump, still at the beginning of his term, the first months began, uh, to position Russia as a possible mediator in the negotiations between, uh, the US and, uh, Iran, well, already there, yes, there they went up in smoke, why, in general, yes, a country that, it is completely clear, it has close, intimate contacts with Iran, it is not going to destroy them, it is not going to protect them. Iran, however, is not going to leave this alliance either

50:53 , because there is nowhere to leave in particular. How, how can she be a mediator, right? That is, well, I think it made many people worry and get nervous, right? That is, to what extent did he realize, perhaps, during this time, that, like, yes, uh, first let him, you know, resolve the issue with the war in Ukraine, and, uh, end it, and then he will position himself as a mediator in peace negotiations with someone. But for now I don’t hope for anything, for now I don’t count on anything. We will continue to freeze further. OK then. In Israel, they are ready, let’s say, to accept Putin as a mediator after he accepts Hamas, after the Russian Foreign Ministry speaks out after the start of a special operation, the

51:40 people like a rising lion, yes, with an absolutely pro-Iranian statement. And in general, in your opinion, is Putin capable of acting as a mediator, even taking into account his relations with Iran, or was it I who expressed my opinion on this matter, yes? That is, it is as logical as now, I don’t know, inviting the Taliban, for example, to peace talks on resolving the crisis in Afghanistan with the education of women, for example, and so on, right? That is, it is also logical. Ah, but, unfortunately, we see that, uh, well, the leadership of our country holds a slightly different opinion in general regarding Russia and its place in the region. And, for example, when, uh, the

52:25 revolution happened in Syria, when the regime of Bashar Rasa was overthrown, yes, and there were several revelations, there are the New York Times about Israel lobbying for the continued presence of Russian bases in Syria, frankly speaking. I still can’t get over this news, yes, because despite everything that I understand, that probably the logic of those who do this, it, uh, tells them that, probably, they need to somehow, uh, rein in Turkey, and maybe Russia will do it. But the previous experience of the same Russia and Iran on the territory of Syria was so unsuccessful and so, as it were, all hopes were, well, completely refuted and so on, that it is clear that this is not, as it were, an

53:11 inappropriate policy. And therefore, if you are asking about the people of Israel, no, of course, it does not accept it. The answer is clear. Oh, and it’s not just now, uh, Hamas there after October 7 and the reaction to Iran, well, and in general, like, yes, Russia’s behavior towards Israel over the past many years. And if you are asking about those who make decisions in Jerusalem, well, it depends on what day they are asked about it. Uh, I think there's some kind of game going on there. Oh, and despite all that, it seems to me personally that at the moment all the dots have been placed, from this Iranian position and so on. But again, yes, that is, there is some kind of system of

53:57 relations, relationships that was built between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Putin. It continues, like, yes, this system continues to operate. Ah, and therefore nothing can be ruled out. I think this is unlikely. Unlikely. Trump himself is already talking about this . Let's hope that he doesn't change his mind in a few more hours, doesn't change his opinion on this issue. Well, Ksenia, thank you very much for this conversation. Let me remind you that my interlocutor during this hour of the channel’s work was an Israeli journalist, Vostokovet Ksenia Svetlova, who in the past was even a member of the Israeli Knesset, the country’s parliament. Here. And now, among other things, she works at the British Royal Institute of

54:43 International Affairs in London as a research fellow, and enjoys a reputation as a subtle connoisseur of all Middle Eastern affairs. Friends, I'm waiting for your likes, questions, comments when you watch this video in the recording, because I understand that maybe not everyone watches it at first. Now, keep in mind, we are going to say goodbye to Ksenia now, and, and, in just a couple of minutes, this video, having been processed, will be posted on the channel in a recording, and there you can watch it in its entirety or re-watch it. And please, please respond as quickly as possible. I have everything. Ksenia, thank you very much. Goodbye. Shalom. Goodbye.