Brief Summary
This video provides an early forecast for the 2026 Senate elections, highlighting potential shifts in power. It identifies solid, likely, and lean states for both Democrats and Republicans, and pinpoints key races that could flip. The projection suggests a significant shift, with Democrats potentially gaining control of the Senate for the first time in the series.
- Democrats are projected to win the Senate in 2026.
- Several states are identified as potential flips, including North Carolina, Maine and Iowa.
- Key races to watch include Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Michigan.
Solid States
The analysis begins by identifying states considered reliably Democratic or Republican. The solid blue states include Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Delaware. The solid red states are Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, and South Carolina. Nebraska is projected to elect an independent candidate, Dan Osborne. After filling in these states, Democrats hold 42 seats, Republicans hold 45, and independents hold one.
Likely States
The video then moves to states considered "likely" to vote for a specific party. Virginia and New Hampshire are identified as likely blue, while Alaska and Florida are likely red. Florida has become a more reliably Republican state since the late 2010s.
Lean Democratic States
The analysis identifies three states that lean towards the Democrats: Georgia, North Carolina, and Minnesota. In Georgia, John Ossoff is running for re-election. Despite a crowded Republican field, Ossoff holds a slight lead due to strong fundraising and name recognition. In North Carolina, the Senate seat is open due to Tom Tillis's retirement. Former Governor Roy Cooper is the Democratic frontrunner, while Republicans are coalescing behind Michael Wallley. Cooper currently holds a moderate lead. In Minnesota, with Tina Smith stepping down, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanigan is the strongest Democratic candidate.
Lean Republican States
Texas and Ohio are identified as leaning Republican. Senator John Corin is preparing for another run in Texas. Democrats have been making gains in urban and suburban areas, but Republicans still hold a statewide advantage. Ohio has been trending towards the GOP in recent cycles. Republican have a strong bench, while Democrat chances hinge heavily on whether Shared Brown can rally voters that he won in the past. Maine, previously considered a lean Republican state, is now categorized as "tilt Democratic" due to Susan Collins facing growing pressure and a unified Democratic effort.
Tilt States: Iowa and Michigan
Iowa and Michigan are identified as the final two states to watch. Iowa was not expected to be competitive until Senator Joanie Ernst announced her retirement. Ashley Henson jumped into the Republican primary with a strong early lead and key endorsements. Democrats began to gain traction with a message focused on economic issues and bipartisan appeal. The state is now projected to flip to the Democrats. In Michigan, with Gary Peters retiring, both parties face an open race. Democrats have an edge due to their control of statewide offices, while Republicans see this as a prime pickup opportunity. The state leans Democratic but remains highly competitive.
Final Projection
The final projection shows Democrats winning the Senate in 2026 with 50 seats, Republicans holding 49, and independents holding one. This outcome represents a net gain for the Democrats.
