Brief Summary
This video discusses the current state of trading and market conditions at the end of the week. It highlights the lack of follow-through on price movements, risk management strategies, and individual market sectors.
- The speaker adjusts risk levels and positions due to market fluctuations.
- Specific sectors such as tech, energy, and precious metals are analyzed for performance and potential trades.
No follow through from yesterday
The market shows minor gains, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ fluctuating. There is no continuation from prior movements, as daytime trading sees a drop before partially recovering. The speaker has adjusted their risk exposure, taking profits on their largest position, the diamond short, and trimming overall risk from 200% to 125%. The market's behavior indicates potential uncertain future movements.
Booking the biggest short
The speaker reviews charts and market trends, noting a past high in the S&P and how recent price movements are failing to significantly break prior ranges. The speaker has short positions in play, especially in diamonds, as they analyze torque points where support has been historically strong, indicating approaching resistance.
The index holds its range
There is a discussion about the range-bound behavior of the markets, assessing various sectors like small caps, which continue to perform poorly. The speaker mentions historical trends associated with September and the observation that significant movement is more likely as they approach the election.
Foreign markets keep sinking
Focus shifts to foreign markets, particularly markets like China, Mexico, and Korea. The analysis indicates these markets continue to experience downward pressure, with charts suggesting further declines.
A clean short on the world fund
The speaker reviews a short position taken on the EFA (a worldwide equity fund excluding the North American equities), noting a recent strength that offered an opportunity for their short strategy. Current performance indicates a positive trend in their favor.
China, Mexico and Korea
Detailed attention is paid to specific international markets. Despite some upticks, markets in China appear to be in a downward trend. Mexico's fund is performing as expected, confirming the analysis of previous short recommendations.
Bonds keep grinding lower
Bond markets are under scrutiny, with discussions around TLT showing declines. The speaker indicates that long-term trends are continuing downward in bonds, and expectations are set for further declines into the 70s as interest rates rise.
The crypto rip he skipped
The crypto market shows a significant rally, contrasting with gold and silver prices. The speaker remains uninvolved in crypto and highlights remarkable gains across various cryptocurrencies, noting potential implications for strategies.
Gold and silver hold a line
Gold and silver prices show relative stability, with gold making gains. Future tests are indicated as critical resistance levels must be breached for a firm bullish condition, and both need positive momentum to signify a stronger market.
Wanting metals to break away
There’s an anticipation for metals to perform independently from the equity markets, suggesting ideal scenarios where equities decline while precious metals continue to rise, pushing for a distinctive trend.
Crude softens as fear fades
Crude oil prices have softened, related to eased fears in the market. The speaker discusses the recent trends in crude, indicating that having more positive news is driving price drops, although they maintain a focus on charts predicting further movements.
Tech and semis go nowhere
Tech stocks and semiconductors display range-bound behavior, with few significant moves observed in recent trading days. Upcoming resistance levels are pointed out, noting the challenges for the markets to break out of their current positions.
The short book, name by name
The speaker reviews individual positions in the short book, highlighting performance across various sectors. A mix of winners and losers is detailed, with a focus on stocks like IBM, Oracle, and energy companies being analyzed for further trades.
Nothing changed this week
In closing, the speaker provides an overall assessment of the week, returning to the constant theme of being range-bound with minimal change. The commitment levels remain high for short positions, and they will continue monitoring the market movements closely.
