Brief Summary
Anthony Pompliano discusses the future of Bitcoin and its price movement. He argues that Bitcoin is going up, regardless of external factors like the US presidential election, monetary policy, or ETF flows. He believes that the recent sideways summer is over and Bitcoin is poised for a substantial move upwards in the next 18 months. However, he cautions that the percentage gains may not be as high as in previous cycles due to Bitcoin's increasing size and decreasing volatility. He also emphasizes that Bitcoin's value is derived from its decentralized nature and its resistance to external control, making it resilient to government intervention.
- Bitcoin is going up, regardless of external factors.
- Expect a substantial move upwards in the next 18 months, but with lower percentage gains than previous cycles.
- Bitcoin's value is derived from its decentralized nature and resistance to external control.
Bitcoin is Going Up, Regardless of External Factors
Pompliano begins by stating that Bitcoin is going up, regardless of who the US president is, what the monetary policy is, or what happens with ETFs. He argues that these factors may influence the severity of the move, but not the direction of travel. He predicts a substantial move in Bitcoin over the next 18 months, but cautions that the percentage gains may not be as high as in the past due to Bitcoin's increasing size and decreasing volatility. He compares this to the 2020-2021 cycle, where Bitcoin went from $8,000 to $64,000 in six months, and suggests that a 100-200% move in the next 18 months is a reasonable expectation.
Bitcoin's Value is Derived from its Decentralized Nature
Pompliano addresses the argument that political events could impact Bitcoin's price. He uses the example of countries that have banned Bitcoin, like Pakistan, Nigeria, and China, where adoption has actually increased. He argues that government attempts to suppress Bitcoin could actually lead to a surge in demand, as people seek to acquire it before it becomes inaccessible. He emphasizes that Bitcoin's value is derived from its decentralized nature and its resistance to external control, making it resilient to government intervention. He compares Bitcoin to a "public health crisis" that has been released into the free market of ideas and is winning on its merits.
Lower Expectations for Higher Happiness
Pompliano concludes by emphasizing the importance of setting realistic expectations for Bitcoin's price movement. He acknowledges that Bitcoin's volatility has decreased, which is a positive sign of mainstream adoption. He argues that while Bitcoin is still riskier than the S&P 500, it is likely to outperform other assets like gold, stocks, and real estate. However, he cautions against expecting the same explosive returns seen in previous cycles. He suggests that setting lower expectations will lead to greater happiness, as it reduces the risk of disappointment.
