Why Bitcoin Is Going UP

0:00 doesn't matter who the president's going to be bitcoin's going up doesn't matter what monetary policy is bitcoin's going up doesn't matter what happens with the ETFs bitcoin's going up and so Bitcoin is going to go up from here the question is not whether it's going to go up it's how much is it going to go up and the severity of that move is going to be greatly determined by a number of different factors obviously you need more buyers than sellers you need people to not sell and kind of hold that Bitcoin there is a public narrative that Trump will be better than Paris for Bitcoin all those things they do not impact direction of travel they impact the severity of the move and so my guess is that we are going to see over the next 18 months or so a pretty substantial move in Bitcoin my only word of caution is do not expect it to be nearly as big on a percentage basis as it has been in the past and so if you're used to 500 1,000% move posst having

0:45 maybe you should expect maybe a 100 or 200% move which still is great but as an asset gets larger and volatility comes down the asset naturally can't just keep compounding at these really high rates of return forever Bitcoin flirting with $770,000 on Monday as a spurt of inflows into exchange traded funds for the largest digital asset as well as optimism about the outlook for us regulation supported sentiment so the US spot Bitcoin ETFs uh lured almost 2.4 billion of net inflows in the six days through October 18th it's not going up because of any of that people are just grasping for straws no it's not going up because of the election it's not going up because of the ETF flows it's going up because it's time to go up sideways summer is now

1:31 officially over and we go up from here and so if you go back you can use 2020 and 2021 as the perfect overlay people forget that we already had a supply shock earlier this year the supply shock is that having until in May of 2020 is when that Supply shock happened Bitcoin was trading somewhere around $8 $9,000 we then went the whole summer sideways summer and nothing happened everyone's like is it broken you know it's that Meme where they're like with the stick we just poking it like does it work and then all of a sudden we got to the end of October and up only and we went from $10,000 to $64,000 by March and so in six months or less we went up 600% fast forward to 2024 there's a whole bunch of chaos FTX nonsense bare markets bull markets interest rates all

2:17 of it is noise what we are watching is we are now going to get the pricing in of that Supply shock when we had the having we're pretty much flat to today sideways summer happened the sideways summer is over and we go up from here and so people will try to attach Bitcoin to all these different narratives well guess what it doesn't matter doesn't matter who the president's goingon to be bitcoin's going up doesn't matter what the uh monetary policy is bitcoin's going up doesn't matter what happens with the ETFs bitcoin's going up and so Bitcoin is going to go up from here the question is not whether it's going to go up it's how much is it going to go up and the severity of that move is going to be greatly determined by a number of different factors obviously you need more buyers than sellers you need people to not sell and kind of hold that

3:04 Bitcoin uh there is a public narrative that uh Trump will be better than uh Harris for Bitcoin all those things they do not impact uh impact direction of travel they impact the severity of the move and so my guess is that we are going to see over the next 18 months or so a pretty substantial move in Bitcoin my only word of caution is do not expect it to be nearly as big on a percentage basis as it has been in the past and so if you're used to 500 1,000% move posst having maybe you should expect maybe a 100 or 200% move which still is great but as an asset gets larger and volatility comes down the asset naturally can't just keep compounding at these really high rates of return forever but let me just challenge that for a little bit I hear what you're saying yeah I hear what

3:49 you're saying about like that it'll impact the the severity or the magnitude or whatever but how can you say that let's say it's been called the Trump trade you know people are expecting Trump to be much friendlier to Bitcoin in the crypto environment um if Harris is too I think I think people have said that she's looking to create a regulatory structure but let's say that there was a political candidate who got into office and suddenly was like absolutely not we're not going to be friendly We're not gonna we're going to be more punitive than supportive how is that not going to impact the price that would be more bullish for Bitcoin I think why because in countries where they have banned it Pakistan Nigeria China adoption goes up faster because

4:35 the people understand that the government is full of and so if the government says you can't have something people are interested look at every industry that they've ever said you can't participate the people revolt and they go and they adopt that industry and so there's a huge argument that the War on Drugs actually made the drug industry bigger if you look at prohibition yeah sure you pushed it into the um into the Shadows but it actually probably made the alcohol industry bigger and so if you think about uh kind of these industries have like a um a respawning of them so look at nicotine as an example oh we're going to slap all these labels we're going to stop people from smoking cigarettes all this stuff things that a lot of people say hey that's a

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6:07 leverage polka dots technology to power their platforms if you're looking for a reliable scalable and Cutting Edge solution polka dots seems to be the top choice for industry players go check them out today at polka dot.com how many kids are running around with nicotine pouches in their mouth how many kids are running around with jewels and they're vaping you didn't kill cigarettes what you did is you just pushed it into form factors the people get what they want and so if you had somebody come in and say I'm going to shut down Bitcoin guess what everyone would do they'd rally around it they'd go buy as much Bitcoin as they could before that happened they go and they put in cold storage and the price would Skyrocket so actually by them embracing it it is making Bitcoin something that is it's not that it's not going to go up it's just not going to be a violent move

6:53 upwards as people maybe think instead you get what we've seen Bitcoin is up about 60% so far this year and so that's a great performance for any asset but 60% in a year where gold is up 30% year to date it's only up two times more than gold and so you look at that and you say look it's not that crazy outperformance of you know Gold's flat and Bitcoins up 500% and so I do think that you've got to uh kind of contextualize this and then the other thing you got to look at is uh both candidates are saying that they are going to be positive but it doesn't matter the president of the United States cannot really do anything to hurt Bitcoin M they a lot of people say oh what do you mean they could go and they could Outlaw ownership there's a lot of countries around the world that have

7:39 outlawed ownership and Bitcoin did not care continue to produce block after block after block of transactions and Bitcoin is fine so you can hurt the American citizens but you can't hurt Bitcoin and so that is really important because ultimately bitcoin's value is derived from the fact that it is not controlled by anyone it's never been hacked it is a programmatic monetary Poli policy that is globally accessible to anyone in the world and that is a very nuanced component because in a weird way the most powerful person in the world the president of the United States cannot wound and kill Bitcoin instead Bitcoin Will Survive the president Bitcoin will sur survive the country and Bitcoin will also continue

8:26 to produce blocks of transactions regard less of what policy is in any one country and the craziest part is even if every country came together and they said we're all going to collude and we're going to shut down Bitcoin they couldn't do it Bitcoin is the strongest computer network in the world if you take AWS Google cloud and Microsoft azour you put all that computing power together Bitcoin is still bigger than all of them combined this thing got like talk about the Public Health crisis that got let out of a lab this thing got let out of a lab in terms of the free market of ideas and it is is winning in a meritocratic uh kind of world because it is the best idea it is the best implementation and so people want to attach these narratives because it makes us feel better but the simplest explanation is

9:12 the most likely Bitcoin is going up because it's time to go up because we had a 50% Supply shock demand has not changed actually it has increased bitcoin's gone sideways the coiling of the asset is ready to unleash and here we go and a small Nuance but you said that you know the uh the returns may not be as lucrative now but isn't the fact that the volatility has kind of dampened a good thing meaning that Bitcoin is now so mainstream that you shouldn't expect these big swings in either direction yeah I do think that there's a very strong argument um you know the Bitcoin Community is good at a lot of things uh one of the things that it is not good at is um intellectual flexibility and what

9:58 I mean by that is uh it's very hard for bitcoiners to hold in their head uh I want Mass adoption and I'm willing to give up returns for it but that is what Mass adoption means is if you want everyone to hold the asset then you are going to get a dispersion of ownership you are going to get a dampening of returns because it is less risky so buying Bitcoin in 2024 is Child's Play compared to buying it in 2016 but if it is less risky the risk you take is the return you get and so you should expect a lower return now the nice thing is Bitcoin is still quote unquote riskier than buying the S&P 500 so you should expect it to outperform

10:43 the S&P 500 and risk is not true risk risk is basically how many people in the market believe that this is safe likely consensus you know you use your term of choice and so my expectation is that Bitcoin will do better than gold stocks real estate anything else but it's just not going to perform on the upside to the degree that it has done it in the past by the way that's what every cycle of History so far shows is that the returns in the first cycle were highest the second cycle were second highest the third cycle or the third highest is going to continue but Bitcoin is up 60% to start the year there's not very many assets that you could have bought at the start of the year on January 1 and outperformed Bitcoin and so I'm not bearish I'm not saying that um uh you

11:30 shouldn't buy Bitcoin or hold Bitcoin what I am saying though is you should understand that happiness comes from a meeting of expectations in reality and if your expectation is that bitcoin's going to $500,000 in the bull market and that doesn't happen you're going to be unhappy you're going to feel disappointed but instead if you have lower expectations and reality matches or exceeds that then you will be happy and so set your expectations lower for any sort of price movement in a bull market and that is the way to guarantee that you are happy over the next 18 months