Brief Summary
This video features macroeconomist Professor Wu Jialong discussing the perplexing state of China's economy, where the stock market is soaring despite evident economic challenges like deflation and declining investment. He explores potential reasons behind the stock market surge, including policy-driven traps and political factors, while also addressing the underlying issues such as the fading economic momentum, demographic challenges, and the lack of independent innovation. Professor Wu emphasizes the need for political reform and a shift towards valuing private enterprises and investing in people to revitalize China's economy.
- China's stock market is rising despite economic challenges like deflation and declining investment.
- Potential reasons behind the stock market surge include policy-driven traps and political factors.
- Underlying issues include fading economic momentum, demographic challenges, and the lack of independent innovation.
- Political reform and a shift towards valuing private enterprises and investing in people are needed to revitalize China's economy.
- The US aims to weaken China's economy but not let it collapse to avoid a refugee crisis.
精彩開場
The host, Wang Zhiyu, introduces the topic of China's soaring stock market amidst a backdrop of economic deflation and weak investment momentum. She introduces macroeconomist Professor Wu Jialong to discuss the issue and address questions from an online survey regarding the risk of a bubble in the Chinese stock market.
泡沫將至？經濟差！中國股市卻創高 漲什麼？
Professor Wu Jialong suggests several reasons for the rising stock market despite a weak economy. One possibility is that investors believe the bad news is over and anticipate an economic reversal. Another is policy-driven price increases designed to lure retail and foreign investors, essentially setting a trap. A third possibility involves anticipation of major political changes by those with inside information, leading them to invest early. He emphasizes that the stock market's rise is not due to underlying economic strength and warns of a potential bubble, citing recent economic data such as August's CPI drop of -0.4% and poor PPI figures, indicating deflation.
以貸養貸挫咧等！ 中國經濟差 通縮問題浮現
Professor Jialong interprets recent social phenomena in China, such as individuals relying on online loan platforms to cover living expenses due to unemployment and deflation. He shares an example of Mr. Wang, who borrows from multiple platforms to repay existing loans, creating a cycle of debt. This situation, where 25 million people are reportedly living on borrowed money to sustain their loans, is described as an "unexploded bomb." Professor Jialong suggests that the release of dismal economic data may be a deliberate attempt to expose the poor economic performance under Xi Jinping's rule or to stimulate the economy through monetary easing by encouraging lending via online platforms. This leads to a debt economy where borrowing is used for consumption rather than investment, increasing the risk of a debt crisis.
中國經濟困境難解 關鍵在於增長動能消失？
The fundamental problem with the Chinese economy is the fading or disappearing of economic momentum. Foreign direct investment, which initially drove China's economic takeoff, is now affected by tariffs, leading companies to leave China, a process known as "decoupling." Infrastructure investment in projects like high-speed rail lines and highways in remote areas lacks economic benefits and creates a fiscal burden due to high loan repayments and maintenance costs. Overcapacity in industries like steel and petrochemicals, coupled with oversupply in real estate and fixed equipment investment, is financed by excessive debt, leading to overconstruction. Long-term issues include a deteriorating demographic structure with a low birth rate and an aging population, as well as a lack of independent innovation capabilities.
十五五規劃前瞻 習近平救的了中國經濟？
Professor Jialong believes that the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is unlikely to save China's economy because it relies on the bureaucracy to drive the economy, leading to overconstruction, over-indebtedness, and overcapacity. The bureaucracy focuses on production-side achievements rather than demand, resulting in excessive construction projects. China's strained relationship with Taiwan, the departure of Taiwanese and South Korean businesses, and deteriorating relations with the United States hinder economic growth by limiting access to foreign investment, orders, and technology. To cultivate new economic growth drivers, China needs to encourage private investment, protect the fruits of innovation, and shift its focus from state-owned enterprises to private enterprises.
中國若改善國際關係 有助經濟重回正軌？
The US aims to weaken the Chinese economy but not allow it to collapse to avoid a refugee crisis. The US has realized that globalization and trade with China have primarily benefited the powerful and wealthy, who redistribute profits to the state or state-owned enterprises and send their assets overseas. The US is now cutting trade to stop these benefits from accruing to the elite. Improving international relations, particularly with the US, could help China's economy recover, but trust is an issue. The root cause of China's economic problems lies in its politics, and only political reform that prioritizes the people can save the economy.
