「小摩研报解读」20260205：官方叙事的“1月房地产市场明显回暖”与事实存在差异，数据受到春节错位干扰，上海收储规模未知｜外资研报｜摩根大通｜房地产｜房价｜二手房｜新房｜求是｜房企｜财经｜经济｜

0:00 Hello, everyone. Welcome back to the YouTube channel of Lao Li Hai. Today, I would like to share with you a real estate industry report by Morgan Dutton. In fact, this report was published on February 5th. It mainly summarizes some of the changes in the real estate market in January and a simple preview of the future market. I actually got this report a long time ago, but I also Ah, re-considering whether to share with you mainly because some of my channel's big boss message ah hope to reduce the share frequency of real estate reports ah because in fact, for the future of real estate development trend to see very clearly especially in the short term ah this time point in 2026 in fact, everyone uh

0:54 The price of a one-line city is expected to be at the bottom But there are also some big guys with a counter-attitude I think maybe in the future Real estate will still go a longer downhill road And Japan's trend is very similar But anyway, in fact No matter how you distinguish between 2027 and 2026 It's a high consensus So a lot of big guys are also advising me to say Share some of the real estate reports Besides, we have a lot of this in this channel This kind of post-95 post-00 is actually completely unimportant to real estate 自己也不缺房住 是吧 未来基本上父母的房子 两边老家的房子 凑到一起已经足够住了 也不希望把更多的精力 放在关注房地产上 这我觉得都是可以理解的 但是今天为什么去分享 我开篇可能时间比较长 但是我还是想讲一下 主要有两方面原因 一个是有一些大佬

1:42 还是希望定期的 去更新一下这个数据 了解一下目前市场的情况 所以我后面还是考虑 降一些频率 但是还是要跟大家分享一下 当下市场的一些变化 The second reason is because everyone should know that the data on real estate is published together in the first and second months of the year when the Bureau of Statistics officially released the data. In other words, the Bureau of Statistics issued the data on the 15th of the middle of February, which is relatively small, and it does not include the data on real estate. Because of the turmoil of the Spring Festival, it is the data issued in the first two months of March every year. That led to our February ah

2:34 Ah, then back to this piece of news. This news, in fact, I'll talk about its core conclusion. Its core conclusion is that there have been some changes in the history of real estate in recent times On the one hand, it is because the second-hand trading performance is relatively active. On the other hand, the article that came out this year is actually a certain support for the entire market emotion But in the eyes of Morgan and Tong, they think that such a It is too early to call a stabilization. They and some housing developers, including some intermediaries, communicated that the recovery in January was relatively mild. There was no official media news that the market was very active and hot in January. And from the sales end of Xinfang, they quoted sales data from

3:22 Baixiang housing, and saw that January was still relatively weak overall, and recorded a 21% year-over-year The growth is of course not a growth but a decline So the current situation itself is not supporting the real estate disaster There will be a clear recovery this year In addition, he also responded to the market concern Why do real estate stocks seem to perform better recently ah that mcdonald's point of view In fact, the previous point of view is very common I believe that some of you old viewers should know that this mcdonald's point of view is called the worse the better That is, the worse the market is, the more people expect the policy So some of the investment in stocks made because of this or the purchase of stocks is similar at the moment Although there is no so-called better and better statement But what mcdonald's

4:11 means is that every time it reaches the key government meeting point 之前那么投资人呢都是持有一种赌博的心态啊叫做just in case啊那万一呢是吧万一这个 会上啊出现了一些新的利好政策呢那我不希望错失这轮上涨所以 在大会之前都会考虑去买入一些房地产的股票而现在大家在赌的其实就是四月的政治区会议啊每年的两会是不会出这种非常具体的政策的 So the next window is actually in the April Political Bureau meeting. So before that, they actually think that the entire real estate stock will still have support. It's just that in the process, if you go buy it now, you may face a relatively large fluctuation. Because the market is still very active in the play between the two. And now there is still a period of time before the April Political Bureau meeting This is

4:58 basically the core conclusion of this report Then let's take a look at a summary of its current market It is divided into three sections That is to respond to the recent official narrative The whole market is really good The description of such a comparison The first one is that the official narrative says that the second-hand houses have been very strong recently It's very good to trade in the first-tier cities Even Shanghai's second-hand trading volume has hit a new high of nearly five years Of course, the new high in January of the past five years, which is about 22,800 sets in January Compared to January last year, Shanghai has increased by 25% But what Morgan Tatum wants to remind investors is that such a trend itself ignores the influence of a wrong position on the Spring Festival

5:44 uh ah In this comparison, the sales of the previous month's sales were only 2% higher than

6:29 last year. This is also in line with the expectation of the second-hand house of Mugen Datong for the whole year. The overall situation is relatively flat. Compared to last year, the micro-increases are mainly from the whole market. The market is gradually turning towards the stock market. People buy houses mainly by buying new houses, gradually turning to second-hand houses, or the second-hand house penetration rate is constantly increasing. 导致的并没有什么其他的新鲜事啊 所以这个我觉得是第一个对于官方数据的一个回应 而且我跟大家同学提到啊 即便是去年的上半年二手房市场成交很活跃 实际上也不代表任何事情 也就是说即便说我们不去考虑春节的一个对齐 就说今年的春节前表现确实比去年春节前表现好 What's more, it doesn't mean that there is any support for

7:18 housing prices. This is the first point. The first response. The second response is a drop in housing prices. In recent times, it is obvious that the data we see from various institutions, the drop in the price of second-hand housing is relatively obvious. It's got two market institutions in it The first one is the data from the Central Research Institute. From this data, the price of the second-hand house changed by 100% in December last year It's negative 0.97, which means it's down by nearly one point. So by January this year, it's 0.85 That is to say, there is a obvious decrease in the first line of the city, which is similar to the last December when it fell by 1.26 percent And in January this year, it fell by 1.13 percent It also shows a drop and a drop But you can see in here Still reflects the first-tier city Compared to the whole market It's going to drop even more, right? 1.13 compared to

8:06 0.85 This is actually reflected in some of my previous views The whole market is still returning to value Return to the return rate of rents The city with relatively low rent returns Its decline is going to be bigger The second data of the institution The data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Their second-hand housing price report shows There has been a relatively obvious rebound recently Such a rebound I made some exchanges with Nantong and Zhongyuan Zhongyuan's response is that the rebound in January is mainly seasonal disturbance ah that usually before the spring festival will have a rebound ah to put it bluntly that is to say whether it can rebound can continue or to see the situation after the spring festival ah that from a point of view of the Morgana actually is so possible in the spring festival after the small Yang Spring period if this rebound can continue that can get a

8:51 conclusion that the price of the house began to fall short otherwise they are very difficult to get such a conclusion, let alone the recent period of time the price of the expected certain changes or due to Some policies such as tax increases This house that is not full for two years Its tax increase in the course of the transaction is from 5% to 3% Also include for example Beijing also introduced some of these Limitless measures in December last year These have created a certain level of confidence But the continuity itself is still there The third question is that the official news agency said recently The number of hangers in the second-hand house is a significant decline In December, the second-hand house in the first-line city The number of hangings has already dropped by 3.8 percent And compared to the peak

9:37 period, it has dropped by 7 percent. That's what Morgana said Even if it has dropped by 3.8 percent or 7 percent compared to the peak But the total is still high And if we consider the sales situation every month as a preliminary period to calculate, a momentary The total number of second-hand hangers sold out The travel period is still very high It's probably 19 months Their point of view is that the real house price should be stable The travel period should be within 12 months The current situation is that the second-hand house is 19 months The new house is 22 months The overall inventory is still high So the decline in the number of hangers does not mean anything. I would like to add to this. In my personal understanding, the number of hangers in the second-hand houses will have a more obvious decline before each Spring Festival.

10:23 Mainly because some people may have to go home for the New Year on the Spring Festival. So in the core of the first-tier cities, which is what he mentioned here, Basically, there is no way to cooperate with the inspection of the house Therefore, these owners may consider to put the house down first and wait for the Spring Festival to come back from the hometown and continue to hang up So that's why we see an increase in the number of hang-ups every time after the Spring Festival I believe this year will not be an exception Of course, the final situation will be checked by time after the Spring Festival The next part is a message that Morgan is discussing recently. It is said that Shanghai began to get old and small from the official end. And it is in the three districts of Pudong, Jing'an and Xuhui to carry out such work. The source of this funding is the support from the construction bank. From the information

11:10 they have learned so far, it is common sense that the main priority of his acquisition of Laopoxiao is that these houses built 2000 years ago are less than 70 square meters and worth less than 4 million yuan. For the owners who have been acquired, they need to buy new houses in order to enjoy such a policy. support that this leads to a problem in fact, I see a lot of self-media have also talked about that is to say, the general public itself may be able to because you collect 400 million below the housing and then you go to buy can still buy a for example, 6,700,700,800 million new houses ah you can still find but in Jing'an in Xu Hui ah this very core of the area you how to find the new house of this value in these two areas basically any new house price is more than 10 million and you need to add a 2.5 times the bar that is to say you put the 400 million of the house to

11:57 sell you only But they got the $4 million And you need to pay at least $6 million To go to Jing'an and Xuhui to buy a house So this is actually the need It can drive the need itself is also limited And Morgana actually has a similar point of view They think this policy itself There's nothing to be excited about First, it is not promoting the real estate market, it is just pushing the transition chain. Second, it is still unclear from the overall scale how many houses the plan will collect. And the purchase and storage action, whether it is to buy new or second-hand houses, From now on, it seems that it is not a new policy. This policy has been used in many cities. So at

12:44 present, their degree of stabilizing the real estate market for this policy may still be very limited. This is basically the core view of this report. Finally, let's look at some pictures. First of all, we can reflect on the data and the data. The new house, you can see that the red line is according to the seven-day moving average. According to the daily data, it is still very behind the yellow line and the blue line. The yellow line is from last year, the blue line is from the year before, in 2024. In other words, the performance of the entire new house market this year can be described as very poor. It is also continuing to refresh the history. The second-hand house is a little better. You can see that the red line is better than the yellow line. In fact, it has performed well in the recent period, but it is mainly due to the wrong influence of the Spring Festival. In addition, let's take a

13:31 look at the house price. This is a slow change of the second-hand house price of Zhongzhi Institute of Research. You can see that the situation of 100% is that there is a small rise recently, and the first-tier city also has a rise, but it still presents a first-tier city that falls more than 100%. 更深的这样一个特征 也就是说核心城市租金回报率还在回归 在中原的这个二手房报价指数 这个一线城市的情况呢 也呈现出类似的情况 也就是说我们看到这个二手房报价指数 是有比较明显的一个回升 那这两项共同指向的 其实就是我们在二月和三月即将看到的 官方数据当中 可能这个环比跌幅也会 去收窄 但是这样的一个收窄本身呢 更多的还是一些季节性的扰动 也就是说春节之前 有一些房东可能他不打算降价了啊

14:20 不打算在春节之前把这个房子卖掉 所以他在春节之前可能也不打算进一步的降价 Maybe we'll have to wait until the spring festival to think about it After all, he didn't have time to go with the visit before the spring festival That led to some seasonal heat-resistance That's similar to the storage situation Whether it's on the top or the bottom of the picture It shows a relatively obvious rise Among them, the new storage is rising The rise in the initial period is still relatively large In recent times, it has risen for two months in a row From 20 months to 22 months And the second-hand storage will probably take about 19 months So the overall stock is still relatively large And for real estate stocks Here they use MSCI China's real estate The index of such a stock As you can see, the top-up is actually betting whether there will be

15:07 some policies at the next meeting, such as from the two meetings in 2025 to the political bureau meeting in 2025, and then to the political bureau meeting at the end of 2025, including the economic work meeting, including the 15th proposal. In fact, these characteristics are presented. Okay, today I'm going to share with you a simple update on the real estate market and some data. In short, these data in recent days are still not enough to support real estate to have a more continuous return. After the Spring Festival, according to the previous logic, there may be a more obvious rise in the number of hangings. Because many people's first choice after the return is to sell the house that was not sold before the Spring Festival as soon as possible. At the same time, there will be a warm-up of the trading section after the Spring Festival After all, some people started

15:56 in their work cities to start looking at houses So the multi-purpose game will be a major point of view in the market But according to a situation last year, it is obvious that the growth of the hanging plate is going to exceed the growth of the trading It also leads to a continuous collapse in the market This is why at the end of last year we saw that the 50% of the hanging plate was increased by about 11% in the same ratio This year may also be such a big trend 今天就简单的跟大家分享这些吧 还是老规矩 如果大家对这篇研报感兴趣 欢迎大家在这个视频的描述栏当中 去索取谷歌云盘的下载链接 那今天就先到这里 感谢大家的订阅和支持 拜拜