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0:00 No matter how many technicals you use without volume, you're you're missing a major part of the picture. There's no one competing where you're playing the game. Versus here, the market's 100% going to react here. So, it's it's really really important to understand really what we call high value areas and low value areas. High value areas are literally just >> it's, time, to, master, the, volume, profile. This one indicator will show you exactly how people are positioned in the markets. >> When, we, get, to, this, edge,, there's, nobody here above us. And so if you think about what moves the market there are, what's most likely to happen as a trader is when volume comes into the market, it's going to be a massive change in structure because none of these prices are sticky. All of my executions rely on this idea of please welcome this sevenfigure trader, Forest Knight. In this episode, Forest breaks down his VP
0:46 strategy using the volume profile to know exactly where to be positioned in the markets. >> If, you're, looking, for, the, candle, for information, then you have to wait for it to close. You literally have to wait for it to close. This price here will never get retested if you actually wait for it to close. All of this is really just thinking of where people are positioned, how they would behave in an auction. Knowing that Forest reveals the exact mechanics of the markets and how they operate and then showcases exactly how to use the volume profile in order to be profitable and to have strong conviction in your edge. >> People, want, to, buy, when, prices, are, low, freak out when they're really red, get greedy when they're really green. They do the wrong thing at the exact right time cuz they're >> Welcome, everyone, back, to, Chart, Fanatics, the go-to channel for all the very best trading strategies and concept
1:32 breakdowns with the best traders in the world. Talking of which, today we have a very, very special guest. He's actually one of the co-owners of this incredible studio, The Move, but he's also an incredible trader, a 7 figureure trader a phenomenal trader who uses the volume profile. It is trading with Forest, aka Forest. >> Yeah,, just, Forest., Yeah., What's, up,, man? Welcome back >> man., How, are, you,, man? >> I'm, good,, man., It's, another, day, in, the trenches. >> That's, it., That's, it., You, We've, been, in the trenches together this week thankfully. And, uh, you know, this week has been a it's a great week. We've been covering some incredible episodes and >> you, know,, I, got, to, learn, the, day, one that I got here that you're a trader as well. >> You, know,, one, who's, been, full-time, for, a very long time and trades personal accounts as well, right? Up to seven figures.
2:18 >> And, you, trade, the, volume, profile., I, do. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> So,, where, do, you, think, it's, best, to begin, you know, this breakdown in terms of the strategy? >> So,, it, makes, sense, to, let's, talk, about what the volume profile is, right? So what is the VP? Uh, the volume profile tells us how many people transacted at a price. So, at the bottom, we often think of volume across time. So, we might have 9:00 a.m. and uh 10:00 a.m., right? So we're looking at volume into the open. The market opens at the the middle part 9:30 a.m., right? So at 9:00 a.m. you might have this much volume and then at 10 a.m. maybe this is the 1 hour chart we have this much volume right and so a lot of people will look at this change in volume and track volume deltas but what if I asked a different question right maybe we're trading in Q right this is an ENQ chart right now that
3:04 we're looking at and I said hey I don't really care how much volume was transacted at 10 a.m. What if I said how many people transacted at 20,000 right? So maybe there's a price right here and this is 20,000 right? Or if I said, "How many people transacted at 18,000 ever?" So not at 9:00 a.m., not at 10:00 a.m. across all of time. Or I might ask a different question. maybe how many people transacted at 18,000 from the time period of 9 to 10 a.m. >> So,, it's, a, very, different, way, to, think of volume, but what it allows us to to do is get intuition about which prices are stickier or more important than others. >> Yeah, >> that's, really, really, key, to, trading, the
3:50 volume profile. >> Another, element, uh, of, this, is, picking what your time ranges are, right? And so typically if we get rid of this bottom part right here, right, I'm looking at the volume profile across multiple days and, then, also, RTH., So, RTH, is, going to, be that 9:30 >> to, 4, p.m. >> Okay? >> Right?, And, those, are, that's, a, key, time frame every single day. And so every single day I'm looking at the market and I'm saying, okay, what is the volume profile going to look like within today's session? What is the story and the narrative of the auction >> uh, for, today?, Because, when, it's, just, the volume bars on on just time, it's just showing every every transaction throughout that time. So of course, if it's an hourly chart, for example, it's
4:37 specific to that time window, so it still has relevant information, but because it's not specific to a price exactly >> or, the, correlation, between, both,, it becomes less precise of what you can do with that information. Right. It gives you a time window that okay there's a lot of volume within this time period but it doesn't really give you much to go on after that fact when in comparison to using both the price as well to understand exactly where orders are looking to at specific price levels with specific time levels. Um so that's why you start looking at volume profile. >> Exactly., And, so, let's, actually, draw, one a a VP right now. I'm going to do this sideways >> because, we, often, talk, of, distributions. I just got a marker on my my shirt. Um so you don't have to be a statistics nerd necessarily. A lot of people have probably heard of a normal distribution.
5:24 So a normal distribution looks like this, right? And then there's like something called a standard deviation. So this is where most of the stuff is that you're measuring. And then there's a little over here. >> Mhm. >> Okay., And, then, there's, a, little, over here. Okay. So imagine if what we're measuring is volume across prices. Okay. And let's do our 20,000. So this is our price. This is 20,000. Okay. And then over here we have maybe 15,000. And up here we have 25,000. And what we're measuring is the volume. Let's imagine that this this this curve
6:09 here is is volume. So if we do a bar like this and this is volume. So just looking at it you can see oh most of the volume is around this 20,000 level. >> Yeah. >> Uh, and, when, we, say, volume, and, I, think this is a key part of volume profile as well is these are people. So when we talk about transactions and volume in general these are actual people who are positioned here. And so what we can do is we can flip this around knowing that most of the people are around 20,000. As a trader we can get some really good intuition about what importance. So I'll actually draw this kind of how a chart you know traditionally looks. So, we'll have our prices on the right. Okay. We'll have our time on the bottom and whatever is on the left. So, over here I'm just going to do every 5,000. So
6:54 we'll do 10,000 we'll do 15,000 and we'll do 20,000, and we'll do one more at 25,000. So, it's 9:00 a.m. I'm looking at the markets, and we have a volume profile distribution. Let's just say it's 9 9 9:00 a.m. Um, we have some overnight activity a little bit from from EU and we get a distribution that kind of looks like uh across a set of prices. What you'll get is a is a is a histogram or a bar chart that'll look like this. Okay, you get a bunch of bars. >> Okay,, this, is, our, this, is, our vertical volume bars, right? And let's do it like this. So, we've got our volume bars and we've
7:41 got our prices. And let's say that the current price overnight is let's use a different marker. Actually, let's use some green. Actually, can I borrow that black one? >> Cool. >> That'll, work. So, we have some prices. And I know this isn't normal. And then it whipsaws in here right? >> And, the, price, is, here., Something, like that. Kind of a weird squiggle. And if I a if I had to ask you like what set of prices are we most likely to be stuck into, it would make sense for us to be stuck around where people are, right? That's why we kind of move quickly higher, >> right?, This, is, thinly, traded, between, the 10,000 and the 15,000 and then we're getting stuck and we're we're consolidating inside of where there's a lot of volume.
8:27 Mhm. >> Um,, and, what's, important, here, is, if, we have this consolidation it's very different if the story of the volume profile is perhaps like this. Let's imagine that we're consolidating now, but now the volume, there actually isn't a lot of volume there. It's all kind of thinly traded, right? You just have some bars like this. >> Yeah. >> So, now, none, of, these, prices, matter., And what's most likely to happen as a trader is when volume comes into the market it's going to be a massive change in structure because none of these prices are sticky. Hey guys, before we get into this incredible episode, I want to say a massive thank you for all of your support so far on both Words of Wisdom and Chart Fanatics. We have grown immensely and are still the fastest growing channels in the trading industry. Now, a way to get back to every single one of you. If you want
9:12 profitable strategies completely for free, go to chart fanatics.com. The links in the description, put your email in and every single week we will send you a free PDF with a profitable strategy of the guests that we host as well as on the website. You can go straight there and you can go through the library of strategies completely for free. Just input your email. On top of that, we launched a Chart fanatics free Discord community that has already over 10,000 members of traders across the world. We have our live traders from Chartax live in there. I'm documenting every single one of my trades in there. And we have exclusive discounts, massive giveaways, and so much more just to give back to every single one of you. Let's not forget updates on every episode and things that we are bringing to this
9:58 industry that's going to change it forever. But for now, the links for that are in the description. Let's get into this episode. >> It's, really,, really, important, to understand which prices are sticky or unsticky. And that goes into really what we call high highv value areas and low value areas. And that's how we determine that the highv value areas are literally just where the bars are the biggest. >> Yeah. >> Right., And, the, low, value, areas, or, uh, a skinny belly is where the the bars are the lowest. And we expect prices to rip through low value. And we expect expect prices to seek out liquidity and actually seek out the high value areas which is important as well >> and, and, to, get, stuck, there, once, it, gets there >> because, that's, why, the, reason, why, we, can consolidate even though we have high volume because I can imagine for a lot
10:44 of people out at home the misconception of like high volume means movement when really high volume just means higher transactions. So when we're consolidating in a high volume price and area, it's a lot of the time because there's a a battle going on between the buyers and sellers. It's a higher volume pace. So we're seeing obviously more transactions take place, which doesn't necessarily mean we're going to move. We're going to see like a really big bullish move or bearish move. Uh that can happen too. But if we are consolidating, it's nothing to say, oh this isn't working or I, you know, I'm very confused. It's more so to understand that we still got all those transactions, but they're battling it out at the moment. Um, and that's why we may see a consolidation alongside uh that increase of volume.
11:30 >> Yeah,, definitely., And, what, you'll, what you can start to kind of surmise across the day is, you know, we have 9:00 a.m. We'll have the open. Let's actually just start with the open. Okay. So, the market opens at 9:30 and it closes on the right side of our chart at 400 pm Eastern Standard Time. of course we're talking about. >> And, let's, try, and, figure, out, the, story for a day. And let's imagine that we know that at 25,000, we could draw our volume profile anywhere. I did it on the left side. I might do it on the right side this time. So, we know that there's a massive shelf up here. Now, the real VP tends to be higher resolution., You, have a, ton, of, bars., It's very jagged. >> We, have, a, massive >> You, can, see, it, later,, right? >> Yep., Yep., We, have, a, massive, shelf, up here. Uh we have a some very small nodes
12:17 down here, very very very little value. And then we have a another massive shelf down here, right? So the market opens today, right? We have some candlesticks that are forming like this. We get a, you know, maybe a very high volume bottom wick. Then we get another candle next to it. Uh it's another up candle, right? Okay, so we have up candle, up candle. Do a little arrow for you. Two up candles and we're here. And maybe this is, you know, does ignore the time frames. We're pushing up into the edge of this node. What'll happen is when we get to this shelf, we have a trade idea now. And you'll see this especially, and there's a very good example I could show you here shortly on the weekly time frame where it looks very, very similar
13:03 to this. When we get to this edge there's nobody here above us. And so if you think about what moves the market there are buy side aggressors and sellside aggressors, right? U people often talk about buyers versus sellers but it's really buyers versus buyers and sellers versus sellers. >> And, whichever, competition, is, more, fierce moves the markets. So if the ferocity of the competition of buyers is bigger than the ferocity of the competition sellers, price goes up because there's more the buyers are competing, right? So what happens here is that you'll run out of buy side. You'll just run out of people here. There's no there's literally no one here. >> Yeah. >> Okay., So,, where, is, everybody?, Well,, it's very obvious. They're all down here. And so, what happens is is you get this down candle back into this range. So, that
13:49 gives you a trade idea. Now, doesn't mean you're going to stay in this range forever. Obviously, you'll break through, but when we do break through it gives you this we rip through these low prices until we get to the next shelf. >> Yeah. >> Right., So,, this, low, value, area, tends, to be where we get the big kind of if the you know, the ICT traders, we'll call them fair value gaps and things like that that'll form, but they're big candles with low volume, right? The the the market's just moving very quickly. It's it's racing. >> So,, in, a, sense,, we've, collected, the volume from this area to take us to the next one, but in the intrim or in the middle, should I say, we're not really expecting the orders to come from there. And that's why we're not necessarily wanting to trade in this area versus when we recognize that we're reaching
14:37 this area. So the bottom of this no volume area that can present a trade area back into the volume area and then potentially a trade idea could come from there to then try and take us there. But really are you saying the higher probable setup is to trade within maybe the edge but within the high volume areas. >> So, this, is, this, is, a, great, segue, into the to the setups, right? So, let's talk about that. >> Um,, there's, a, few, kind, of, key, levels that I look for every single day that I want to coincide with these the the volume profile, right? So, the four key levels, guys, every single day are the overnight high. I'll just do overnight high, the overnight low. Whoops, it's terrible. Overnight high, overnight low
15:23 prior day high. Yeah >> it's, really, hard, to, write, and, talk, by the way. >> I, know. >> And, prior, day, low., So,, four, key, levels. Why do these prices matter? Now, this is less volume profile. This is more auction market theory, but they go together. >> Yeah. >> So,, if, we, look, at, a, day,, any, given, day, and let's say the day looks like, you know, uh this and the market closes here. Okay. So, we have the low of the day, have the high of the day, and you have some other pivot there. The very last person to go long went long here right? Someone went long here and that person is in a lot of pain because we see that the market went down and it never got back to their price. >> Yeah. >> So,, what's, going, to, happen, is, on, the next day when the market moves to their
16:08 price, they're going to want to get out, right? Maybe not all of them. Maybe some of them will will, you know, wait because they think the market the market's going to, go, in, their, favor., But, a, lot, of these people who are trapped are going to become sellside aggressors. They're going to race to get out even. So as we get to here, as we approach this level we'll actually start to see sellside competition increase. So imagine if you combine that and you and you have confluence with the shelf, right? And so in terms of setups, it's looking at where the auction has confluence with these major shelves. And then the other aspect of that is the candles that we get. So if imagine that the market moves here and we get a massive candle with a top wick.
16:54 >> Mhm. >> Okay., So, we, get, a, lot, of, volume, here. Top wick. So we crack this price. The last trapped long. I call it the last man. It's at a shelf. A ton of volume comes in once we touch this shelf. >> Yeah. >> To, the, to, the, downside., I, know, this, is, a green marker, but imagine that this is a down candle. We get a down candle at the edge and we sweep. That's a trade idea. So all of all of my executions rely on this idea of a high volume signal candle that has confluence with an edge and a higher time frame volume profile. So I'm basically combining techn a little bit of technicals with what the auction is telling me of where people are actually positioned. The volume profile is telling us where people are positioned. >> What, time, frame, would, you, be, looking, at
17:40 your volume profile? >> So, there's, two, major, time, frames., I would consider this to be like the weekly, >> right?, Or, a, higher, time, frame., So, the weekly or the daily. >> And, then, my, key, levels, are, going, going to be on like the 4 hour. >> Yeah. >> Um, weekly, time., It, comes, out, to, WTF. Yeah. Uh so the weekly time frame or >> um, 4, hour. >> Yeah., Most, of, my, executions, are, the, 4 hour down to the two. >> Yeah. >> Yep., Um,, so, this, the, very, best, setups would be like this is a 4 hour candle. >> Um,, there, was, a, good, trade, and, we'll talk about it in a second where this was uh on the one hour chart. >> Yeah. >> But, what's, really, really, important, here is higher is better. What'll happen is >> okay, if, we, get, a, bunch, of, candles, okay
18:26 and maybe like this like this we get a really high volume bottom wick green candle but let's say that this is the one minute okay and we're we're talking about volume. Mhm. >> So, intuitively, we, can, imagine, even, if, we see a relatively higher volume spike here or even looking at the volume profile, we get a really big bar in the volume profile on the one minute here >> it's, still, a, one, minute, time, frame, right? The very next minute >> could, be, like, this,, right?, There's, just there's there's too much that could happen in that time frame. Yeah. Where the inverse is is very very true as well. If okay, we have an auction and let's do let's do a really high time frame. Let's say we get a nice the market comes down like this and then we get a huge high volume bottom wick on the weekly at
19:15 an edge. Okay >> and, this, is, actually, what, happened, in the market right now. And then the market comes out of it like this. This market comes down high volume bottom wick comes up at the edge of a VP that gives us that that weekly kind of reversal that we're in right now. >> Yeah. >> And, that's, an, exact, type, of, signal candle. A lot of people aren't looking at weekly candles for signal candles for trades. >> Very, true., Yeah. >> But, what's, cool, about, this, is, you, don't have to trade the weekly. You look at the weekly. I know, oh, the market bias is up. So now all of my executions, I should be looking for the long side >> right?, And, I, can, still, trade, the, 15, or whatever time frame people want to trade, but I'm using the volume profile to give me bias. Yeah. Right. And so if I literally if you hold held long after this weekly candle close long enough
20:00 you're green right now. Right. Really simple. Yeah. Within this candle though if you've identified, you know, so you're at the edge, you've identified your high value areas. Are you looking to execute within this candle or once this candle is printed, you're then looking for executions to then take you into this direct continuation. I am looking for candles to close. So this is a really important concept >> because, what'll, happen, is, let's, do, let's do an example of what happens if you what I call front running a candle >> right?, And, so, we, have, a, candle, and, let's say it looks like this. And it's this is just a full body candle. It's green right? And this is we're trading the 4 hour chart. Okay. And right now we are at 3 hours 3
20:48 98 hours. It's about to close. And I'm like, hey, this is a signal. I should go long. Now >> what, happens, in, those, last, few, minutes is this candle like right here turns into this candle. It gets smashed >> right? >> So >> it's, crazy,, right?, The, last, few, like literally minutes. >> And, this, happens, to, a, lot, of, traders, not just on the 4 hour, it happens on the 15 minute, the 5 minute, whatever your time frame is. If you trade, if you're looking for the candle for information, then you have to wait for it to close. You literally have to wait for it to close. It's a mistake that I I made when I started. I see I see it in my community. I see a ton of people do it. They try to preempt the candle. >> Um,, and, there's, there's, actually, is, some edge here. This kind of gets away from VP. >> If, you, watch, how, fast, this, candle
21:33 changes in the last few minutes >> yeah, >> the, next, candle, is, probably, going, to, do the same thing as like an FYI. Like it the market repeats itself. And so you can start to anticipate these fast changes in the candle formation. But generally, if I'm looking for a signal >> you, have, to, wait, for, the, signal., Imagine the literally the candle has not finished printing yet. Yeah. >> Um,, and, you, know,, one, thing, you, can, do is there's you can actually turn off the candle or indicators that you can you literally won't see the candle till it's done forming. Uh, that's that's a really cool trick that you can do as well. >> That's, interesting., That, is, really interesting. Up to 6 million in futures funding. That's only possible at one place, Apex Trader Funding. You can get up to 20 accounts at Apex. No other futures firm offers anything even close.
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23:04 all, there's no profit cap. Now, don't forget, you can get a payout at Apex every 8 days. So, you can get either their 25K account all the way up to their 300K account, and you can get up to 20 accounts. Now, make sure when you're getting an account at Apex, you use the code CF for up to 90% off at Apex Trader Funding. The link is in the description below. Use the code CF, get up to 6 million in futures funding today. Now, let's get back to the episode. What's interesting as well is I think what happens to people is their assumption is I'm going to miss the trade and I'm going to get even if it's an extra few points or a bit more by entering now versus waiting. Um and the other fear is that okay it closes here I
23:50 want to say enter here ones if it doesn't pull back so let me just enter now so I don't you know don't have to worry next minute closes like this whole trade idea is actually not valid then >> yeah, down >> and, then, you, miss, out, and, I'll, tell, you something else in terms of draw down with this if you wait for the signal candle you'll get something like this right so you'll get let's say we have a candle that closes like this this is our weekly candle weekly time frame. We get a ton of volume. The market came into it like this. And we're expecting something like this. Okay. If I wait, it's very unlikely with for if this is a signal candle, an up candle, high volume up candle at the at an edge, this price here
24:36 >> Mhm. >> will, never, get, retested. If this is if you actually wait for it to close. Yeah. >> It, won't, get, retested., Now,, these, prices might get retested, right? We'll even see like 80% retest, especially on ENQ. I trade ENQ a lot. You'll see 80% retest of the wicks. And that's even a trade idea. Get really in the weeds. But if retest of this can become a trade idea even though you're long biased, you you know,, this, is, going to, get, retested., But this bottom price will never get retested. So, what happens is is your bracket is literally just I go I go long here because I I get the signal. I go long here and my stop is just here >> and, I'm, willing, to, eat, all, of, this, as draw down expecting
25:21 us to go way up here on the weekly time frame. I mean, this is thousands of points at this point. >> Um,, so, you, can, trade, it, like, that., Like you said, you brought up a really good point. Some people might want to, you know, get in down here long instead expecting the retest. But what you'll see sometimes is a very bullish immediate reversal. I'll see on the 4 hour time frame this candle closes the very next candle it just goes and then the ne like it's it's out of here and you're like whoa even though it's a high time frame like it's it's gone. You have to >> especially, when, it's, higher, time, frame as well. And if that happens and you've waited for say you know a few weeks >> for, that, to, to, position, itself., Yeah. Then you >> hesitate, looking, for, a, perfect, trade, or a better trade um for that pullback and it just goes because that's why I think the characteristics of the you know pair
26:08 or or side of the industry that you're trading. So whether it's in this case say your your indices or your indexes or whether it's gold or whether it's forex like knowing the characteristics of that pair. So, like you said here, you've noticed that ENQ will just run. >> Yeah. >> So,, when, you, notice, that,, being, able, to make sure you trade alongside those characteristics versus doing what you want price to do or how you want your trade to look. I think that happens to a lot of people. And a lot of it is based off like emotion in terms of I've waited so long for this trade. I want to make sure I get the maximized results from it. um you know I don't want to have an entry here for example versus an entry here, because, this, is, I, don't know, let's say a 100 points right >> on, the, grand, scheme, of, things, as, you said this could be thousands of points
26:54 so what is it just a 100 point difference you know of looking for perfection versus being in a profitable trade >> and, a, lot, of, people, I, mean, a, lot, of people struggle with the the concept of of accepting red um and I've heard traders too that trades will good trades should work out you for you immediately I like those trades It's better. I also know, though,, at least, in, my, system,, if, I have a signal candle, there's an acceptable amount of draw down. Yeah. >> Again,, I, know, that, this, price, will, never get retested or my thesis has failed. Yeah. So, I always trade my thesis. Anything in here, I'm accepting the weight. I will go to the lowers, right with >> I, don't, have, to, draw, everything,, but, we could drill in to find a more optimal entry. I don't necessarily worry about having a perfect entry though, so long as I I get in when I see the signal and
27:39 the price is is going to race for me. >> Do, you, have, a, specific, scenario, where you might look for a a sort of retrace entry? >> Uh,, yes., So,, the, classic, example, is really get rid of all these is really anytime you have a really long wick on in on NQ. This is kind of subjective, but let's do a few different types of candles. We have a, candle, like, that,, right?, It's like a widebody dogee. You can get a small body dogee, some long wicks, get a shooting star candle, or we might get a hammer candle. >> Right., Got, you. >> So,, a, few, of, these, are, different, types of candles that we'll get you. Anytime you get a really extended wick like this in the market, intuitively you should think about the fact that within this
28:25 time frame, the market Oh, let's imagine that this is an up candle. Okay, this is an up candle. So the market opened here. >> Yeah. >> Okay., At, some, point, in, opening,, it, raced all the way down here and closed up here. That's crazy. That's nuts, right? There was so much volatility versus the story of this candle to say this is also an up candle. The market opened here >> it, went, down,, it, went, up,, and, it, closed here. Right. Very very different stories about the volatility >> calm, and, sort, of, not, not, much, emotion behind and all volatility. >> Exactly., So,, this, is, a, very, volatile candle. And so, if we think about the fact that that's volatile, what we can expect to happen in this next candle even though this is an up candle is we'll probably get something
29:10 >> like, this,, right?, It's, going, to, retest this. And the VP, by the way, at the same time >> I'll, do, a, little, VP, for, this, is, you'll see that this is like low value and then it'll be like higher value over there. And so we have our our histogram here. These are bars >> right? Get our histogram and you can literally see how people are positioned. And so the price will race through low value. It'll come back up to where it's sticky and then it will continue higher. >> Okay., So, that's, how, you'll, then, start, to filter. Okay, this is where this particular candle close means I should look for a retracement entry versus just entering after the close versus the original, example, to, the, left, for example
29:58 might be one where you go okay this is where I'll enter and you know not wait for a retracement because we can probably look to continue. It's interesting how that works though right with the volatility the interesting thing is no doubt that's the candle where most people think this is going to go without me I need to get in. >> Exactly., when, in, reality, that's, the, one that pulls back >> and, then, they, face, the, immediate, red, on a candle like this you're almost always if you long it you're going to face immediate red >> and, then, if, you, just, have, a, a, lot, of times we'll use like a 50 fib and I eyeball this I never use the fib tool by the way I'll just eyeball the middle >> and, then, I, know, that, it's, going, to, go between 50 to 80% so I'm like I'll just long inside this box good >> and, I'm, good, now, sometimes, and, the market doesn't always behave the exact same way sometimes it gets away from you and you just don't make money or you
30:43 miss out and that's fine. Um, but yeah I know it's going to test 50 to 80% of this and I'll just put a limit long and either I'll tap it to the tick. Like I've had some pretty cool days where it's like you get a tick perfect entry at the 50 or it comes down here a little bit. You do a little red and then you're just green for the rest of the day or the trade >> because, when, you, are, just, you, straight into the red, what ends up happening is you hold it. If you're lucky, you hold it and you keep holding it. You don't close it. Yeah. >> But, I, say, if, you're, lucky,, it, comes, back to break even, then you close it. >> Yeah. >> And, then, it, goes, without, you., And, then normally what ends up happening is you either start chasing prices and longing higher up with a very skewed risk-to-reward. And more than likely you're probably not putting your stop here. You're probably putting it under some uh lower time frame low, which gets swept. Um or worse is that because you
31:31 then have missed the long, you start trying to short to long, meaning you try and short here, but price keeps pushing through and you short here and it keeps pushing through and that's how you end up blowing out an account. >> And, that's, what, happens, to, most, people, you know, they they they do the wrong thing at the exact right time because they're they're not thinking intuitively about again, all of this is really just thinking of where people are positioned. >> Yeah. >> Right., And, how, they, would, behave, in, an auction knowing that people want good prices. Exactly. >> People, want, to, buy, when, prices, are, low. They freak out when they're really red. They get greedy when they're really green. Or they they want to race to exit. >> Exactly. >> And, so, that's, that's, really, core, to, uh my system. >> Is, there, anything, else, you, look, for here? Is it simply that the 50 to 80% a fib you mark it out or is there anything specific that you need to see or would like seeing maybe as an additional
32:17 confluence whether it's a lower time frame uh VP or or you know particular candlesticks or particular level. Is there anything in that area that you look for? So really if and this this is like one type of setup. So really what I would prefer to see is let's if we modify the scenario a little bit. >> Um, I'll, see, if, I, can, draw, this, out, well enough. Let's imagine that um I use what's called a session VP which it'll in real time draw the volume profile during uh as volume is coming in during the day. >> Okay., So,, let's, imagine, that, in, our, VP we have um some high value up here okay? Or maybe even a ton higher up here right? And then we have some value down here.
33:02 Okay? So, what I want to see is then we have some other bars like you know, whatever throughout the day. >> So,, we've, extended, this, long, kind, of, bar into this shelf. So all of my trades like this was more of like talking technicals, but my actual trades that I would take full leverage on have to have confluence with a volume profile, what I call the edges, right? So these major nodes >> in, the, higher, time, frames., That's, really what I'm looking for. Or what's likely to happen is I'll get some type of reaction, but because I'm in low value technically there's no one here. Yeah. >> And, where, there, is, aren't, people, is where you get the really weird barcoding and people really get chopped up. They're like, "Wait, why isn't my system working?" And it's like, "There's no one here." So, the price is just it's the
33:48 market's doing true price discovery because there's no one uh competing where you're playing the game. >> Yeah. >> Versus, here,, the, market's, 100%, going, to react here. It's 100% going to react here every single time. It has to right? There's a massive amount of people there waiting. They're waiting to take action because the price finally came back to them because they're super green, right? if they long down here or if they're trapped, they got to get out. Like it finally came back to them, they got to get out. So that's that's really key for no matter how many technicals you use without volume, you're you're missing a major part of the picture. >> I, love, that., And, in, terms, of, the, volume profile, I know you trade uh ENQ as you say, but is this something that is universal like you could trade it across I would say more the sort of futures side, maybe options side versus example because forex isn't has doesn't
34:34 have a centralized exchange. Yeah that's >> a, bit, difficult, to, rely, on, the, volume and the data. >> It, becomes, pretty, impossible, actually. So, I was I would say like I I trade this with with option and I can I can actually show you how what this looks like across the options chain. So, let's get rid of this really quickly. But that's a good point. Like if you're trading something that doesn't have volume, >> yeah, >> this, fails, miserably,, right?, You, have, to do something else. I don't trade forex right, for that reason. >> Most, people, don't. >> Um, but, let's, imagine, you, have, some strikes. We'll assume we're trading SPX. Okay. And what's cool is the most brokers, if you look at the option chain, have almost a volume profile built in for each strike. So, we'll just do 5,000. >> Okay., And, then, I'm, going, to, skip, some prices. Let's just do uh 5,50.
35:23 >> Mhm. >> 5100. And then we'll do 4950. And uh what am I doing? 50. Uh so 4,900. Thankfully, I understand this better because we did an options master class here on Chanatics. >> Nice. >> So,, now, I, understand, you, strike, prices and everything, which is great. >> We'll, do, one, more., So,, we'll, do, 4850, and 5150. Check that out by the way. >> Um,, so, most, broker, tools, there's, there's all these options Greeks up here. So, we have the Greeks, okay, for both sides. And these are calls. You call Greeks. So, then you have put Greeks. >> Yeah. >> Okay. And you'll also have this this interesting co column called open interest or oi. >> Yeah.
36:08 >> And, oi., Cool., And, so, the, way, that, I, like to visualize OI is as a bar, a volume bar. And so at 5150 we're going to have a huge amount of OI. Okay. At 5100 we'll have half of that. At uh 5,50 we've got like a sliver a sliver. Uh, and then on the put side, we're going to have a sliver, a massive bar, and a massive bar. >> So,, we're, trading, S&P., We're, looking, at the options interest. If we go up, okay if the price starts to come up okay, price is here. Price comes up, we could we should expect the underlying to react at this shelf. >> And, that, happens,, especially, when, these
36:55 are expiring. I ignored it. I didn't talk about expiration. Let's talk about we're talking about today. There's every strike across all the different expirations. But if this is expiring today, I have to ask myself if this is a 100,000 open interests, that means that if this price goes through this, a h 100,000 people >> are, going, to, be, in, the, money., And, you got to ask yourself who is getting screwed in that situation, right? So what happens tends to happen and that does happen by the way. Sometimes the market will move and it'll squeeze through um these shelves, right? We might have another price higher here and it'll it'll actually race across the OI. It'll it'll do this and it'll bounce at the edge of the OI, right? But what'll also happen is if say it's 3 p.m. It's
37:40 the end of the day. >> Okay,, it's, 3, p.m. >> We, get, to, this, edge., What, happens, is, all those premiums get killed. They get crushed. Yeah. >> Because, there's, too, much, incentive, for people holding the underlying, right? or it doesn't matter on the call side or the put side. There's too much incentive for this to not go in the money at the end of the day. And so you'll see this get killed and then what'll happen is after settlement open after all these are dead then your then your trade that you got crushed on completes, right? Um so it the same concepts 100% apply on the the OI. Um but the one thing with options is that you really have to look for exceptional levels of interest. A mistake that people make, especially in my community, is we we'll end up with a day that kind of looks like this, and
38:26 you'll get one that's like slightly higher. >> Yeah. >> But, it's, like, the, delta, between, these, is not extreme enough for any of this to matter. I need a if if these are the bars, >> need, like, an, outlier. >> I, need, like, this. >> Now,, we're, going, to, react, at, 4950, right on the downside because there's a massive amount of interest here. Okay. So, don't get tricked into thinking just because we have an increased volatility across all prices, that's edge. In reality, the edge is actually found in having an outlier and having like a unique observable amount of volume in comparison to everything else. >> Exactly., Exactly., Um,, and, you, did mention volume. So, open interest is basically at open um what the open positions are, but intraday you want to watch the volume as well. And you can also plot that as as a histogram or a bar chart. Got it. Um and it's the same
39:11 thing. But yeah, you really want to watch those deltas. So, uh the main thing would be on like Friday, right? Um when it's OPEX, watch this. A lot of people over fixate on this um because they learn about it from me and I'm like, guys it's unless there's a a large amount of contracts expiring or motivation, the market's not going to just reject every strike with interest. Like there are plenty of days where the market comes down and all these are just in the money. >> Yeah., Yeah. >> And, those, people, just, made, money., But, we don't know >> what, like, this, could, be, a, hedge,, right? We don't necessarily know what the net result is. >> All, I, know, is, that, 100%, this, happens, right? So you want to look for the outlier edges. Yeah. >> In, the, volume,, right? >> Definitely. >> Let's, take, a, break, for, a, minute, there, guys, cuz I want to tell you about the
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43:00 technicals alone. >> Yeah., So,, I, would, say, the, first, pro, is it's not really a a derivative indicator. So, like if you think of what a candlestick is, it tells you where price was in a time frame and it tells you how many at right for sure 100%. Right? Um there are other types of like cumulative like volume indicators that are more derivative, right? Um they're time based. Even like VWOP is like accumulating averages. This is just like how many people transacted at 5,000. Yes. How many? I want to know. Right. It tells you that. Um the other pro for this is that it's easy to see deltas. >> Yeah. >> Right. >> And, so, if, we, talk, about,, you, know,, this
43:48 bar versus this bar, like you don't even have to know. Yeah. You have never spoken to me and you like, hey, there's something happening at this point. >> Yeah., What's, going, on, there? >> What's, going, on, there?, like, there's, a lot of people at this price. Maybe I should pay attention and you you'll probably arrive where I've arrived eventually. >> Um, so, those, are, the, two, major, pros., Um what's the third kind of >> you, say, it's, fractal?, So, like, you, can use it you're using on a higher time frame but you can use it on lower time frames as well. >> It, is, fractal, and, the edges like on intraday will have confluence with higher time frame. So you'll see a maybe within the regular trading session you'll see a a shelf and then when you zoom out to like the daily you're like oh that shelf is al is also the edge of the weekly shelf. I thought
44:34 there was a lot of people here. Actually, turns out there's a lot of people here and that can give you extra edge and maybe you leverage up in that trade, right? I believe in variable position sizing. So, leverage. >> Would, you, say, it's, simple, as, well?, In, a sense, >> it, is, simple, um, in, terms, of, like, what we've covered in terms of like here's what you look for and here are your edges and you know these are where you trade within and and where you target and then here's the no trade zone. So it kind of creates a very systematic approach in terms of where you're looking to enter, where you're looking to execute, where's of interest versus where's not of interest. >> And, of, course, simple, doesn't, mean, easy, right? That's I know that can be a misconception. >> I, can, think, of, the, other, side, of, this immediately. So the con. >> Yeah. >> Um, it, is, simple,, but, the, thing, with, the volume profile
45:19 >> and, I, don't, know, if, I, can,, we, don't really have to match it, but the first con is that it's slow. >> Okay?, Even, if, you're, trading, the, volume profile on a lower time frame, it's slow because you need to by definition I need to wait for it to form to have some intuition. >> Yeah. >> And, I, can't, have, a, full, distribution with one candle. Yeah. >> I, need, like, multiple, candles,, right? >> So,, it's, slow. >> Um,, another, con, that, I, would, say, is, you could have infinite overlapping. So kind of like you can it's fractal, but it's like >> it's, easy, to >> how, many? >> Yeah., you, know,, it's, like,, wait,, do, I use the the >> Is, that, part, of, your, to, only, have specific time frames? As you mentioned >> I, use, Yeah,, I, try, to, get, two, time, frames as far apart from each other. For example, you wouldn't want to trade on
46:05 the 30 and then use the 1 hour for confluence. If you're trading on a 30 yeah, go to like >> I, know, most, people, don't, trade, the three, but go to the three hour. Like try to get as far away as possible so that you actually have some like the big ship moving the small ship. This is the problem that if you go let's say you know weekly, daily, 4 hour, 1 hour, 30 minute, 15 minute, 5 minute, you're going to have conflicting within there, you'll find maybe four that are bullish, two that are bearish one that's neutral. And the problem with that, one is very confusing. You don't know which one to go for. Two, if you have a bias that you have personally you're going to try and align with whichever one matches that bias versus which one makes the most sense and the market's telling you. >> Uh, because,, you, know,, I, think, I've, been guilty of that. know so many times where
46:50 I want to see price go up every you know all, out, of, I, don't know, 10, time, frames majority say it's going to go down but whichever one says it's going up that's my that's my word that's like yes this is why I'm doing this because it makes sense >> I'm, right >> yeah, um, yeah, it's, it's, tough, because it's slow and you can look at a lot but if you're doing it the right way there is a low number of trades and I think this is the thing that kills >> good, and, bad, this, one, Yeah,, it, kills, new traders because like especially across different >> Yeah,, it's, not, exciting,, you, know,, and I, you know, I live stream in the morning. Everyone's like, "What's the trade right now?" Right. And I'm like on like I don't have anything for you. Like I would be I would be making like I'm
47:36 always willing to give like what I think will happen next, but I always get the disclaimer like this isn't a trade I would take because there's no signal candle. Like it doesn't meet all of the executions. You can get good. I I would say another pro though. flip side of that is >> um, you'll, get, good, at, predicting chop. >> Okay. >> Yeah. >> Which, is, a, con, as, well, because, I, I, I, can predict chop pretty well kind of what the next chop is going to be, but it doesn't mean it's a good trade because chop tends to be less sticky and you get it's it's more variable. But you can get better at predicting chop because you know, >> right?, If, you're, say, you're, chopping down here and there's a big bar up here it's like it's gonna chop into that.
48:21 >> Yeah. >> Right., It, has, to., I, don't, know, how, long it'll take, but it's going to chop up to that next shelf. >> Gotcha. >> Right., Um,, so, that's, that's, definitely, a pro. Um >> that's, perfect., I, think, we, can, jump, onto the chart and see some examples. Right. >> Let's, do, it., All right., So,, let's, look at some examples that have played out recently. >> Uh,, today, this, morning, is, a, really, good example. So, uh, I was talking about this morning how we would likely grind up higher due to the way that the VP was developing. So, let's just go to the 15minute. Uh, by the way, guys, use a replay tool if you haven't used Trading View before. It's super simple. Um, it's it's it's a great tool. So, let's just go to 9:30 a.m. and let's see what the volume profile look like. So, the indicator that I have on is called the
49:06 session volume profile HD. Uh it is from settlement open which is 6 pm Eastern Standard Time to you know the the close which is 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time. So 23 hours in the day. You can see here we had this strong green candle here at 8:30, right? And then we start to build value higher. We build this node here at the highs which is very different than we can even see yesterday's high, right? The distribution here ended up being weighted very very into the middle of this day. Yeah. >> Right., So,, there's, an, immediate difference in the shape of the auction. So, these prices for whatever reason, it doesn't matter if they're long or short. I don't really think about that anymore to be honest. I just know that there's people here. >> Yeah. >> Because, there's, people, here,, um, they're
49:53 going to be uh playing the game. So, my first question at this point in the day is will this continue to build or is it going to quickly reject? Because if this node gets big enough, it's a bullish signal. We're going to continue this way because the auction is literally it's moving away. Even though there's a large amount of people down here >> right, at, these, prices,, the, market's basically saying, "Hey, we're never coming back. We're just going to build enough value here. It's going to start to go higher." >> The, auction, moves. >> Yep., And, so, what, we, can, do, is,, and, this is, you know, pre-market, we watch the candlesticks and the node gets bigger. So at this point, I'm thinking, yo we're, it's, 100%., We're, going to, go higher today. >> Yeah., And, if, I'm, taking, any, longs,, my stops are, you know, down here at the edge of the node, right? You could do
50:39 right at the edge of the node. And then your TP is going to be, you know wherever wherever it is. I need to go to a higher time frame and see where the shelf is. >> But, we, could, play, this, out. >> You're, looking, for, the, same, way, you, set your stop. You're setting your TP to a shelf, like to an area where the nodes are reducing, the auctions leaving >> or, dying, off. >> Edge, to, edge., That's, why, I, call, it, the volume profile edges. Yeah. For that exact reason. I'm literally just expecting it to traverse all of the players in a node and once you run out of people, it's likely going to reject. >> Um, and, then, specifically, today, because it's it's a Friday, um I wasn't expecting a I was looking at we talked about OI earlier. Yeah. >> Um, there, wasn't, enough, really, juice., So this this ended up pinning or what we call pinning uh kind of higher. So that's an example just from today what we call a it's not really a P-shaped
51:25 volume profile, but looking at trending price action on the volume profile. If we go to the one hour there's another example I think from Monday if I recall. Yeah, this is a an interesting trade here. There's there's a few here that we could talk about, but let's let's talk about this this 1 hour close here at at uh 1300. So, we'll go back in time, select a bar and let's talk about the key levels. So, I mentioned uh there's four key key areas that I care about. uh prior day high prior day low, overnight high, and overnight low. So, this overnight low got taken out here. Overnight high. Actually, we got to talk about this first. This is an actual trade I took. Totally forgot about this. Sorry.
52:11 >> All right., So,, uh, we, have, overnight, high or sorry, prior day high. Let's do PDH and we have prior day low or overnight low. Overnight low. Cool. two key levels. Cool. We don't have the higher time frame VP on, but what I really want to care about is what's the shape of the session volume profile here and what kind of candles form around what the auction is telling us. >> Yeah. >> So,, we'll, go, ahead, and, move, forward, in time a little bit. We get a print on the one hour. We get a high volume top wick candle into the auction. Now I know because I trade level to level that this at least is going to go to overnight low.
52:57 >> Yeah, >> we, got, again, a, signal, candle, at, the, high at the edge alpha key level. This is a pretty tight trade here. Uh I'm looking at the prior day volume profile as well. I could also overlay the this visible range uh here and I can see that there's a you know a shelf down here essentially. Correct. >> Right., So, this, other, indicator, shows, me the volume profile across whatever's on my screen visible range. And so >> show, the, any, price, that's, on, the, screen. It's going to show you all of that volume. >> Exactly. >> Versus, these, are, specific, days. >> Yep., So, this, is, session, by, session, and then this is everything on my screen. So you can see it, you know, change as I do that. >> Got, you. >> Um, but, let's, imagine, I, go, short, here, right? And I did and then I do a TP and maybe I want a TP at the edge of this
53:42 shelf, right? Safe TP would be overnight low, but we come down there and let's see how close we get to that. We go through wicks right off of this this edge here, right? And then if we continue to go forward in time for our next signal candle we swept this price. We got a it's a lower volume uh bottom wick, but we got a green bar. Another key thing, this isn't really related to volume, but just like the story of every day. It's you're very unlikely to sweep a prior day high and a low >> in, the, same >> in, the, same, session., It's, extremely unlikely unless you have like a huge break in structure. So, because we swept prior day high, even though we ran lower, it's extremely unlikely we we sweep prior day low. So, as soon as I
54:28 see this weakness and change, I know that I can do a mean reversion back into, you know, maybe the point of control, right? So, I'll go back a little bit. one bar. I go long, right? I do my TP at the point of control, which is in the volume profile. It's just the price with the most amount of volume. Yeah. Right. And so, we go forward in time. >> Okay., And, it, goes, a, little, bit, higher, but who cares? I got my money >> uh, on, my, trade. >> Um,, so, those, are, two, very, kind, of, simple examples from the the last seven uh seven days or so. >> Definitely., Well,, the, thing, I, love, uh, as we talked about in terms of simplicity not to mistake again for easy, but simplicity meaning that this one way of observing the market when you understand
55:14 it and you're able to then, you know see it in the market dayto-day provides you everything you need from where to execute, where not to trade, where best to trade, where to target. And I think those are a lot of the problems or they solve sorry a lot of the problems that a lot of traders face because they may have a good entry system but they don't have the management the target the where not to trade for example or they have the good target they don't have the entry. So this you can see incorporates all of those into one system. >> Just, one, question, though, off, the, back, of it looking at it now on the charts. >> Sure. How much of a process would you say for someone new looking to use volume profile? How much of a process would you say there is to really picking up really training the eyes? What's the realistic
56:02 not maybe time frame but what's the realistic journey look like? >> I, think, in, general, for, a, trader, like, if you're really good it's going to take you the fastest I've seen someone get profitable is 18 months and that's that's just fast in general. It took me years just to be candid like I suck. Uh >> it, took, me, it, took, me, years, to, get profitable. I think for the volume profile, the hardest thing about this is that it doesn't give you that many trades. Yeah. Like I I went back days here to show you like good examples. And one of the toughest parts about my system that I've been filling too is >> because, there's, a, low, number, of, trades if you're waiting if you're truly waiting for that signal candle to form. And I noticed in this very high VIX environment, you don't always get that. And so I've been trading more around just the shape it itself than anything else. Here's a good example of a volume
56:48 profile shape that we got here. This is what we call Pshape, right? It's literally just shaped like the letter P. So, this is kind of a bullish >> right?, The, auction, pushed, higher, and volume accumulated higher. And so, we expect that continuation higher, right? Which is basically what we got. We get rid of this uh the replay there. Uh you can see that's exactly what we got. P-shaped close. It did chop a little bit. Market push higher. And then the inverse of that is what we call B-shaped volume profile. Mhm. >> Um, but you can trade just with that. It's really hard for new traders to just trust the VP and not look at the candles. >> Yeah. >> Uh, I've, tried, even, trading, without, the candles and just using the VP. It's hard. >> Um, it, is, much, harder., But, that's, how, you get intuition about about the prices. So >> would, you, say, is, there, anything, to, the
57:35 previous volume profiles in terms of let's say like here you know we we pushed three four days and you can see that the point of controls you can see that where the auctions were for those days and we see this push down and this sweep if you will before seeing the momentum kick back in. Is there anything from those previous profiles that help for a move like that at all? >> 100%., So, in, general, one, of, the, there's really two setups that we have. So, I have um mean reversion trades >> of, of, various, sorts,, but, the, there's also a previous PC retest trade. And so this is one of the key trades uh that I teach people is we're in an uptrend. All right? And we know that the market doesn't just go vertical. It always comes back. The question is where does it come back to? Right. >> And, so,, conveniently,, there, is, this
58:22 price from yesterday where most of the people are positioned. >> Yeah., Right., And, so, if, I, had, to, be, a betting man, which I am
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