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Bref Résumé

Cette vidéo porte sur les attentes concernant le prochain rapport sur les résultats d'Open Door, l'importance de rester au-dessus de 1 $ pour la conformité au NASDAQ, et les stratégies de l'entreprise pour une croissance rentable.

  • Le rapport sur les résultats à venir devrait montrer des revenus de 1,5 milliard de dollars et un BPA de -0,03 $.
  • Open Door a regagné sa conformité avec le NASDAQ en maintenant un prix supérieur à 1 $ pendant 12 jours consécutifs, annulant ainsi une réunion spéciale sur un éventuel regroupement d'actions inversé.
  • L'entreprise se concentre sur l'amélioration des taux de conversion, le maintien de la discipline des prix et l'allocation efficace des investissements marketing.

Introduction

La vidéo introduit une discussion sur Open Door, en mettant l'accent sur les événements récents et le prochain rapport sur les résultats du 5 août. Il souligne l'importance de s'abonner à la chaîne pour les mises à jour et les flux en direct. La vidéo donne un aperçu des attentes du marché concernant les revenus (1,5 milliard de dollars), le BPA (une perte de 3 cents) et l'EBITDA (17,5 millions de dollars) pour le trimestre. Il mentionne également les prévisions de la direction du trimestre précédent, qui prévoient une baisse des revenus au second semestre de l'année, mais une amélioration des marges de contribution et une réduction des pertes nettes ajustées en 2025. La vidéo souligne également que l'action est restée au-dessus de 1 $, ce qui est crucial.

Tendances des taux hypothécaires et réunion spéciale d'Open Door

La vidéo aborde les taux hypothécaires, notant une légère baisse récente des taux fixes à 30 ans pour les achats et le refinancement. Les données économiques révisées indiquent une probabilité accrue d'une baisse des taux en septembre, avec une probabilité de 80,3 %, contre 61,9 % la semaine précédente. La vidéo souligne également un changement important dans les attentes concernant le nombre de baisses de taux en décembre, ce qui est bénéfique pour des sociétés comme Open Door. La vidéo aborde également les nouvelles spécifiques à l'entreprise, notamment le report de l'assemblée spéciale des actionnaires au 27 août pour discuter d'un éventuel regroupement d'actions inversé. La vidéo précise que le vote en faveur d'un regroupement d'actions inversé ne signifie pas qu'il aura lieu, mais qu'il donne au conseil d'administration la possibilité de le faire s'il le juge dans le meilleur intérêt de l'entreprise, notamment pour assurer le maintien d'Open Door sur le NASDAQ.

Conformité au NASDAQ et stratégies d'Open Door

Open Door a regagné sa conformité avec l'exigence de prix minimum de l'offre du NASDAQ en maintenant un prix de l'offre de clôture d'au moins 1 $ pendant 12 jours ouvrables consécutifs, ce qui a conduit à l'annulation de l'assemblée spéciale des actionnaires prévue pour le 27 août. Le conseil d'administration a estimé qu'il était dans le meilleur intérêt de l'entreprise et de ses actionnaires de ne pas donner suite à la proposition de regroupement d'actions inversé à ce moment-là. La vidéo suggère que cette décision pourrait indiquer la confiance de l'entreprise dans le prochain rapport sur les résultats. La vidéo souligne que, bien que cela soit positif du point de vue des actions et de la cotation au NASDAQ, il incombe maintenant à la direction de tenir ses promesses. La vidéo mentionne les prévisions de l'entreprise et les améliorations attendues, en mettant l'accent sur l'amélioration des taux de conversion, le maintien de la discipline des prix et l'allocation efficace des investissements marketing. Open Door se concentre également sur la fourniture de ses produits le plus efficacement possible, en favorisant une organisation plus légère et plus agile, et en tirant parti du programme de partenariat avec les agents pour une croissance légère en actifs.

Attentes de revenus et importance de l'exécution

La vidéo souligne l'importance de l'exécution des stratégies d'Open Door. Elle réfute les attentes de revenus de 12 milliards de dollars pour l'exercice 2027, affirmant que les estimations actuelles se situent plutôt autour de 6,7 milliards de dollars. Ces estimations pourraient être révisées si l'environnement macroéconomique change et que les taux baissent de façon importante. Les analystes de marché prévoient que l'EBITDA ne sera positif qu'au cours de l'exercice 2027, et il sera intéressant de voir si Open Door peut atteindre cet objectif plus tôt. Pour le prochain rapport sur les résultats, il sera essentiel de voir si l'entreprise peut réduire avec succès son inventaire de logements et le pourcentage de logements sur le marché depuis plus de 120 jours. La vidéo souligne la nécessité pour Open Door de prendre des décisions stratégiques, d'acheter des maisons pendant les bonnes périodes et de vendre pendant les bonnes périodes, en évitant les erreurs passées qui ont conduit à un inventaire élevé et à un manque de rentabilité. La vidéo exprime également le souhait d'entendre l'entreprise annoncer une présentation ou une réunion avec les investisseurs afin de présenter ses plans pour les années à venir.

Analyse boursière et potentiel de croissance rentable

La vidéo analyse la performance boursière d'Open Door, notant qu'elle a culminé à près de 5 $ et qu'elle a ensuite corrigé. L'action semble avoir rebondi juste au-dessus de la moyenne mobile sur 20 jours, clôturant la semaine à 2,10 $. La vidéo souligne que l'action a atteint le même niveau de résistance qu'en décembre 2023, mais qu'elle était cette fois-ci plus surachetée. Bien que l'action ait gagné en popularité auprès des investisseurs particuliers, cela ne suffit pas à faire progresser l'entreprise. La vidéo souligne que si Open Door veut reproduire le succès de Carvana, il est essentiel que l'entreprise accélère et s'améliore, en se concentrant sur la croissance rentable plutôt que sur la simple spéculation. La vidéo explique que le redressement de Carvana et sa performance boursière ont été motivés par une amélioration fondamentale de l'entreprise, qui est passée en mode de croissance rentable. La vidéo conclut en soulignant que le succès d'Open Door dépend de l'exécution, et que le fait de ne pas exécuter correctement pourrait compromettre son potentiel de croissance importante. L'auteur de la vidéo détient toujours une position dans Open Door, ayant retiré son investissement initial lorsque l'action était à environ 3 $.

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0:00 Hey everyone and welcome back to another video for today. So since the last time I spoke about Open Door, a lot of things has happened with the stock with the company. Also some crucial things have already happened. Now earnings report that's going to be in the next couple of days August 5th. So make sure you're subscribed and hit that notification bell so you don't miss any of the future videos and live streams. So what should we be expecting from the upcoming earnings report? Well, we could of course just go and look at what the market is expecting this company to report on August 5th. Revenue $1.5 billion. EPS coming in at well a loss of 3 cents right now. And then EIDA, that's

0:46 going to be the number to look at cuz that's supposed to be positive. The estimated number, the expected number sits at $17.5 million for the quarter. And if we go back here and look at what the management has told us last quarter for a guidance, they told us the following thing. The company anticipates that the slowdown in acquisitions will put pressure on topline revenue in the back half of the year. So probably in the guidance for Q3 and Q4 with revenue expected to decline year-over-year in Q3 and Q4. However, they aim to deliver year-over-year contribution margin improvement through continued operating efficiencies and wider spreads. They also expect an improved and adjusted net

1:32 losses in 2025 compared to last year. Company's guidance for Q2 is revenue between 1.45 45 and 1.52 billion. Contribution profit between 65 to $75 million. Adjusted Ebida of between 10 to 20 million. So 15 at the midpoint. Market is expecting a little bit more than that. And that's the first time in 3 years that that's going to be adjusted a bit positive for a quarter. Now, as you can see, the stock is still above $1, and that was very crucial, and I'll explain why. If you enjoy this type of videos, hit all the buttons. If you want to support me even further, do check out the link down in the description and in the pin comment with the top 10 best stocks to buy now or go to

2:17 full.com/couchinvestor. Thank you very much. All right, first of all, if we look here at the mortgage rates, of course, if we look at the 5-year performance, you can see what has happened, right? But more recently, more recently, we have been coming down a little bit. We're looking here at a 30-year fix for purchases for refinancing. It's a little bit of the same. You can even see here for the week July 27, top offers on bank rate are 88% lower than the national average. Can also see that it does come down a little bit for repurchasing. It has actually also come down a tiny bit for the national average. So that's good. What's also good based on the recent revised

3:03 economic data that we have because yes, believe it or not, in 2025, you cannot just release data and stick with it. No, you can actually release economic data and then couple of weeks later you come back and say, "Oh, actually no, that data wasn't really that accurate. We are revising it down in this case." And so what we're seeing here, probabilities of a rate cut for September is now at 80.3%. If we look back to a week ago, that was 61.9%. Now, if we go and look at the December meeting, we can see a huge increase here, a huge huge change. Of course, if we do get a September rate, then yeah, only 11.7% do expect where probability

3:50 is that we're only going to get one cut. 40.8% two cuts. 46.4% now three cuts. And if we look at what that was not that long ago, that this part right here, which is this line a week ago, that's to that 20.1%. And as you know, the lower the interest rates, the better it will be for a company like Open Door. Moving on here, more company specific news. So this was released on July 28th. So open door to adjourn special meeting to stockholders to August 27. Remember this was a meeting that was bound to happen July 28th. They postponed it until August 27. In that meeting they were going to talk

4:35 about well the reverse split, the potential reverse split. And as I said before, just because you vote for a reverse split doesn't mean that the stock will get split. It just gives them the option and then it's up to them to decide what's best for the stock and for shareholders. Well, here they said the special meeting was being held to consider two proposal related to discretionary reverse stock split of the company's common stock. Approval of the proposals does not mean that a reverse stock split would occur. rather an approval would provide a company's board of director with an option to pursue a reverse split only if the board believes it is in the best interest of Open Door and his stockholders which includes seeking to ensure that Open Door remains

5:22 listed on the NASDAQ. And so on Friday, Open Door regains compliance with NASDAQ minimum bit price requirement and cancels special meeting for stockholders. Of course, if you are staying above a dollar for at least 10 consecutive business days, you are now compliant. And that's exactly what has happened. So NASDAQ's notice confirmed that Open Door maintained a closing bit price of at least $1 for 12 consecutive business days from July 15 to July 30, thereby regaining compliance with the minimum bit price requirements. Accordingly, NASDAQ has determined that the matter is now closed. More importantly, the board of directors of the company has decided to cancel the special meeting of stockholders scheduled for August 27, which was

6:07 intended to consider two proposals related to a discretionary reverse stock split of the company's common stock. In light of open door regaining compliance with the minimum bit price requirement, the board has determined that it is the best interest of the company and its stockholders to not proceed with the verse stock split proposal at this time and to cancel the special meeting which some might speculate and say that oh this maybe is a sign of them being quite confident that the report the upcoming earnings report is going to be good enough and should not crash the stock. Although you never know what the market will do, but this this is definitely already a nice overhang that's removed. Now, of course, all of this is great from a stocks perspective from being

6:54 listed on the NASDAQ and all of that. That's great. That's also why this was one of the few stocks that were actually quite green on Friday. Now, now it's up to the company and management to deliver. Like we said, this is the guidance. This is what we should be expecting the company to report on August 5th. These are the improvements that the company is expecting to make this year and of course going forward as well. So they're focused on improving conversion rates, maintaining pricing discipline and efficiently allocating marketing investments. They're committed to delivering its products as efficiently as possible, fostering a leaner and more agile organization. They're also leveraging agent partnership program for asset light growth. So they're expanding their agent

7:41 partnership program. They believe this program will allow them to serve more sellers. They're expected to monetize a greater portion of their funnel. And this aims to leverage their platform to drive more asset light business suggesting a model that reduces direct capital expenditures while expanding reach and revenue. Of course, execution here is key. And this is also an important part because like I said previously I I've seen some numbers out there especially from Eric on X who's been talking who's been very vocal on Open Door and the fiscal 27 revenue expectations that he saw in Bloomberg. This is the number that I'm seeing for fiscal 27 nowhere near $12 billion sits at $6.7 billion right now. Last time I

8:27 made a video you can go check that. I believe it was at $7 billion. So nowhere near $12 billion. So forget about that. Okay, forget about those expectations. Now again, these expectations, these estimates can change. All right, if the macro environment changes, if rates do come down quite drastically, if suddenly you have a lot a lot more movement in the home buying selling market, then of course these things here will be revised on the upside hopefully. If we look at Ebida, this hasn't changed since last time I made a video. The market analysts are still expecting Ebida to be positive only in fiscal 27. Hopefully hopefully they can do this. Open Door can do this earlier uh than that. Now for the

9:13 upcoming earnings report, what's going to be interesting to see is well if they can successfully reduce homes in inventory. As you can see, this thing has been going up and up and up for two years now. It's time for this thing to start going back down. Same here with the percentage of homes on the market over 120 days. Yes, that has come down from the highs here of 46% in the December quarter, but 27% is still too high and that should come down. Of course, as we've known and as they said, should be expecting revenue to come down a little bit. They're going to be a little bit more profitable or try to be a little bit more profitable. They're going to try to offload some of the inventory as well. The spreads will be

10:00 better for them. But it is now very important to make strategic decisions. Don't buy houses just for the sake of buying. Buy in good periods and sell in good periods. Don't go and do things like this where suddenly you have such a high inventory it keeps rising and well the business is not really making any money here. That's not a good business plan. Now, the plan has been made, so that's good. Let's see if they can execute on that. I do also want to hear them say that they're going to have an investor presentation or meeting, right? Cuz it's been I think in 22 they had one and in 2023 they had one as well. 24 nothing, 25 at the moment, nothing as well. So, so it could be a good thing to have something like that for them to

10:46 actually lay out their plans for the upcoming years. And so right now stock-wise, as you can see, of course, we peaked here at close to $5. Extremely extremely overbought. Then we corrected, we went back down, and it does seem like the stock rebounded just over that 20-day moving average at $1.80. Closed out the week at $210. Now, what was interesting here is if we zoom out, the stock basically peaked where it peaked back in December of 2023. same resistance there at $5. Although this time it was way more overbought. And of course, right now it does seem like this has gotten a lot more love from retail, but it's not enough, right? It's not enough to move

11:32 the company up. If we truly believe that this can be a Carvana like move in the making then the most important part here I hope you all understand is the business actually accelerating and improving going up and to the right and saying that oh it is a 100x or it is the next Carvana just because that's not a real investment thesis no the thesis here is that they are going to become more profitable they can still grow but grow in a profit able way. That's how you get your multibagger here. That's how Carvana actually recovered and became one of the best performing stocks over the last couple of years. Carvana did not become the best performing stocks. I actually pull it up right

12:19 here. Carvana, they didn't they didn't see this huge huge increase over the last couple of years just because oh wishful thinking, fugazi, fugazi, it's a wazi, it's a woozy. No, this here this here happened because fundamentally fundamentally the business did recover. Of course, here they were basically priced to go bankrupt, let's be honest. And that didn't happen. And so the business did recover. The business did become fundamentally much better. They went into growth mode, profitable growth mode as well. And that's why this stock has gone from around what is it the bottom here $1.7 to now $367. They also reported earnings of the last couple of days. Incredible quarter yet again. So all of those things are

13:04 necessary here for Open Door to be a big success and a comeback story. Of course, a lot of things can go wrong as well. They don't execute correctly, then forget about your potential huge multibagger. And so all in all, that's it for me in this video. I still hold a position in Open Door. I did take my initial investment out when it went at $3 and something. So, not the peak, but right now I'm letting the rest ride and we'll see what happens. I'll of course cover it next week, whether it's live or in a specific video. So, make sure you are subscribed and you hit that notification bell so you get notified whenever we go live with Jose or just a video goes live. Thank you all for watching. I'll see each other in the next one. Bye-bye.

13:56 [Music]

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