This Boring Trading Strategy Made Me Millions.

Nick Shawn www.youtube.com

Kurze Zusammenfassung

Dieses Video von Nick Shawn erklärt, wie man mit einem einfachen, unkomplizierten Ansatz im Forex-Handel erfolgreich sein kann. Er betont die Bedeutung von Disziplin, Risikomanagement und einer emotionslosen Ausführung von Trades. Hier sind die wichtigsten Punkte:

  • Einfachheit: Verwende einfache Charts mit Unterstützung und Widerstand, ohne komplizierte Indikatoren.
  • Risikostrukturierung: Setze ein festes Risiko pro Trade (z.B. 25.000 bis 50.000 Dollar) und verwende ein 1:1 Risiko-Ertrags-Verhältnis.
  • Konsistenz: Führe Trades ohne Emotionen aus, auch bei Verlustserien.
  • Backtesting: Überprüfe die Strategie durch Backtesting, um Vertrauen in den Ansatz zu gewinnen.

Einfachheit im Trading

Nick Shawn betont, wie wichtig es ist, den Handel einfach zu halten. Er verwendet schwarz-weiße Charts mit Unterstützung- und Widerstandszonen als einzige Indikatoren. Er rät davon ab, komplizierte Strategien oder technische Indikatoren zu verwenden, da diese oft zu unnötiger Komplexität und Subjektivität führen. Stattdessen konzentriert er sich darauf, bei Widerstand zu verkaufen und bei Unterstützung zu kaufen, wobei er höhere Zeitrahmen wie Tages- und Wochencharts bevorzugt. Er vermeidet es, "ein Held" zu sein und große Kursbewegungen mit engen Stop-Losses zu antizipieren, und setzt stattdessen auf einfache 1:1 Risiko-Ertrags-Verhältnisse.

Risikomanagement

Das Risikomanagement ist entscheidend, um nicht das gesamte Kapital bei einem einzigen Trade zu verlieren. Nick Shawn strukturiert seine Trades, indem er bei Erreichen einer Unterstützungszone kauft und einen Stop-Loss unterhalb dieser Zone platziert, mit einem Gewinnziel im Verhältnis 1:1. Er zeigt Beispiele aus seinem Discord-Kanal, wie er bei EUR/AUD und AUD/USD Trades einsetzt, wobei er jeweils 50.000 Dollar riskiert, um 50.000 Dollar zu gewinnen. Er passt das Management seiner Trades an, indem er bei schnellem Gewinn die Position hält, aber bei Seitwärtsbewegungen oder Verlusten die Position frühzeitig schließt, um Verluste zu minimieren.

Konsistente Ausführung

Konsistenz ist der Schlüssel zum Erfolg im Trading, auch wenn es zu Verlustserien kommt. Nick Shawn betont, dass es wichtig ist, sich nicht von Emotionen beeinflussen zu lassen und an der Strategie festzuhalten, solange man langfristig mehr gewinnt als verliert. Er teilt seine Erfahrungen aus seinem Telegram-Kanal, wo er auch Verlustserien durchlebt hat, aber durch diszipliniertes Handeln und Risikomanagement dennoch profitabel war. Er rät dazu, sich von der Vorstellung zu lösen, dass jede Trade ein Gewinn sein muss, und stattdessen auf die langfristige Profitabilität zu konzentrieren.

Backtesting-Beispiele

Um die Strategie zu veranschaulichen, führt Nick Shawn Backtesting-Sitzungen mit dem TradingView-Replay-Tool durch. Er wählt zufällig ein Währungspaar (NZD/JPY) und eine historische Periode (Dezember 2010), um zu zeigen, dass die Strategie auch in der Vergangenheit funktioniert hätte. Er identifiziert Unterstützungs- und Widerstandszonen und platziert Trades gemäß seiner Strategie. Trotz einer anfänglichen Verlustserie von fünf Trades in Folge, demonstriert er, wie die Strategie langfristig zu einer ausgeglichenen Bilanz führt. In einer zweiten Backtesting-Sitzung mit dem Währungspaar AUD/JPY demonstriert er, wie man durch das frühzeitige Schließen von Verlusttrades und das Halten von Gewinntrades die Profitabilität steigern kann.

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Vollständiges Transkript von „This Boring Trading Strategy Made Me Millions.“. Klicke auf einen Zeitstempel, um das Video an dieser Stelle zu öffnen. Du brauchst ein anderes Video? Nutze den YouTube-Transkript-Generator.

0:00 If you are anything like me, you are not a genius. You're not a stupid person. You're not a complete idiot, but you're probably average just like me. And me, even in the wake of being average, I have made millions of dollars in forex and stocks and crypto consistently and predictably over the past decade since I dropped out of college. What I'm going to do in this video is I'm going to show you the differences between the way that you are trying to trade right now and the way that I currently trade. And I should be one to talk because for the past eight years, I have had a free Telegram channel where I have consistently called out all my analysis, my insights, my trades. And over the course of the past four months on this account right here, I've posted all the trades and analysis. I've made

0:46 $359,000 just in Forex alone before swaps and commissions. I know what I'm talking about and I am uniquely qualified to tell you what I think works because so many of the things that I see here on YouTube that people are trying to teach you how to trade in every single video that you click on do not work because if they did, you would be profitable and you wouldn't be here right now. I'm going to cut straight to the point. I'm going to break it down very cleanly and simply for you. And what I'll also say is that if you want to join this free Telegram channel, I have a link in the description that has my free training. Click that link, put in your name and email on my website. I'll give you a one-hour long free training course about exactly how I trade in complete detail. And then in the next module in that free trading course, you can get a link to join this free Telegram channel with

1:32 55,000 members that I've been running here for the past 8 years. But what we're going to focus on here in today's video is we're going to be talking about these four things. I'm going to teach you how to completely decomplicate your trading approach and how to keep it boring. I'm then going to teach you how to structure the risk. I'm going to teach you how to do this consistently even through the ups and downs where you have basically no emotion and you can do this like a remorseless psychopath and then we're going to go through back testing examples showing this step by step. The things that I'm teaching you here in this video are very important. They are not things that I have just made up. These are things that I have actually practiced and preached for the past decade that I have been trading and they work and you can you can see that for yourself by scrolling through my whole Telegram channel after you do my

2:17 free training at the link in the description after you finish this video. So, first let's talk about how to keep things boring. One of the most important rules inside my trading success comes from the idea that I barely do anything on the charts. I do not want to sit here every single day and play the types of stupid games that so many people play. I see so many people here on YouTube who are traders claiming to know what the hell they're doing that are doing so many things that don't matter and they're doing all these stupid things at the cost of things that really do matter. So, here's what I do. I use black and white charts. I use a black background and white candlesticks here on my charts. And the only thing I use is support and resistance zones. That is it. I do not use anything else. I don't use any technical indicators. I don't have any complicated institutional order

3:05 block wagu beef bullish candlestick entry strategy. I don't use any fancy shiny indicators or any algorithmic trading tools. Nothing. All I do is I just use support and resistance. Here's how I trade. Whenever price gets to a clear support or resistance zone, I sell if it's at resistance and then I buy if it's at support. And that is literally all I do. I use the higher time frames like the daily and the weekly to find trades because price tends to bounce at zones on those higher time frames a lot easier than it does on the lower time frames like the 1 minute for example. And doing this I'm able to get plenty of trading opportunities and I'm usually not in trades for more than a couple days at a time. Sometimes my trade will last a week or maybe a little bit more, but most of the time I'm out of trades within a oneweek period. And

3:51 that is because of the way that I approach it. I don't try to be a hero and catch the next thousand pip move with a tiny stop-loss. That's stupid. What I do is I just use simple 1:1 riskreward ratios. Basically, when price gets to a support zone, I buy with a stop below the zone and a target of a 1:1 riskreward ratio. And the same thing for resistance. Vice versa. Price gets to a resistance zone, I enter a sell. I put a stop loss above the above the zone and I risk an amount that I'm comfortable risking. Right now, I'm risking anywhere from $25,000 to $50,000 per trade with my trading capital. And then I set a one to one profit target and it either works or it doesn't. I'm going to show you all of that right here in this video. That is the way that I keep it super super boring. And what you'll often find in life, not just in trading, but in life in general, is that the boring stuff is usually the things

4:37 that work. The things that you can do predictably and consistently works a million times better than trying to have all these complicated, ridiculous, nuanced trading strategies with a million different decision points and all this subjectivity. I hate that. I detest that. I can't stand that and I'm not going to sit here with a straight face and tell you that that's the way you should trade because I think that's stupid. So, when I go to the chart, all I do is I look at current market price and then I see where the next clear zone above price is and the next clear zone below price is. And then I set two alerts. One at the next resistance zone above price and one at the next support zone below price. And the moment price gets to that zone, I'll check the chart. I'll make sure there's no crazy news event causing price to instantly spike through the zone. And provided everything still looks steady state, I simply buy or sell. Now, let's talk about structuring the

5:23 risk. Structuring the risk is very important because it means you're never going to lose all your money on one trade. How do I structure risk? It's basically like this. Price gets into a support zone. As a matter of fact, let me just I'm going to show you this trade I'm in right now and how I structured this trade. Price has come here on the daily and weekly charts to this major clear support resistance zone. This area where price has bounced very obviously multiple times in the past. So, what I did is I entered a buy at this support zone. When price got into there, I put a stop loss below the zone and I have my target set at just a 1:1 risk-reward ratio. If you want to see this literal exact trade, let me just show you the exact trade that I called out in my Discord. Okay, here it is.

6:10 This is Euro AUD. You can see it's on the weekly time frame. And this this is my exact order right here. You can see I've risked $50,000 on this. I bought at the support zone. I put a stop loss below and I put a target above at a 1:1 riskreward ratio. That's it. That's all I do. The same thing also for this AUDUSD trade. I entered a sell on AUDUSD and you can see there's this resistance zone here. I put a stop loss above price and I put a target at 1:1 riskreward ratio. Risk $50,000 to go for $50,000 profit. That's all I do the past week doing this. I had a horrible week last week and I still came out on top $12,000 profit precommission. And then of course you've already seen the past four months of me doing this. I've come out on top $359,000 before swaps and commissions. I

6:56 basically doubled this account. And this has just been in four months just doing this super super simple basic boring stuff. So I have a stop below this zone and a target at a 1 to1 riskreward ratio. And here's what I'm going to do to manage this trade. If it starts going into profit relatively quickly, I will just simply hold the trade. If price does not start going into profit quickly and it starts going up then bouncing and coming back and making lower highs into the zone, usually what I will do is I will just close the trade a little bit early. I'll try to get out a break even, a small loss, a small profit, and just call it a day. If it breaks below the zone, sometimes I'll close halfway to the stop-loss. What this does is it keeps my average loss smaller than my average win. I do not do a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio or a 1:3 or 1:4

7:42 riskreward ratio because this does not give you any flexibility to manage the trade. You are trying to rely on mechanical black and white absolutes and they do not exist in trading. Your discretion and your intuition after getting enough applied experience doing this over and over and over again, watching me call my trades live in my free Telegram channel, learning everything from my free training at the link in the description, and watching this entire video. This is going to completely restructure and reframe the way that you approach this because the way that you approach it is going to be the telltale sign as to whether or not you are actually able to be predictable and consistent with your decisions. So when price starts moving sideways, you end up building up the discretion, the price action discernment to be able to decide to get the hell out of trades that are not working out very well and then to stay in those trades that are

8:27 working. So that way whenever they go and hit the profit target, you get the full profit target win. But on this other side, if you have your stop loss too close, all the time you're going to have price break below the zone and then you're going to just take the stop loss instead of having realized that before price even got anywhere near the stop- loss, the trade wasn't working out and you closed dynamically. Having a 1:1 risk-reward ratio gives you the flexibility to get that experience and discretion and managing trades. That is your edge in trading any type of speculative market. Whether you're trading forex or stocks or crypto, you have to be able to get this experience. Otherwise, it's just not going to work. You cannot just hold one to one riskreward ratios to the profit target of the stop-loss without any discretion because if you do that you're going to win half the trades, lose the other half the trades. Congratulation, you're a break even trader, which is actually something to be proud of because if you

9:13 just do that, then you going to break even. 90% of people cannot even break even in trading. So congratulations. You enter 1:1 riskreward ratio trades blindfolded. You're still going to at least break even and you're going to be ahead of 90% of people. You add in a little bit of nuance with that. you add in just a little bit of discretion to close trades early that aren't working and hold trades that are working, you'll be able to be profitable. AUDUSD is the same basic analysis, right? We have a we have a support resistance zone right here. So, this was a resistance zone that price got to. I got my alert up here on Friday of last week. And then whenever price got to that zone, all I did was I entered a short position with a stop-loss above the zone and a target of a 1:1 risk-reward ratio. Right? So, my trade looks basically something like this. I already showed you here in Discord the exact trade. Um I've just

9:59 I've sold this is my actual entry, my actual stop loss and my actual profit target and it's very very simple. So with this said, I have showed you how to keep it really boring using black and white charts with just support resistance zones. I've showed you how to structure the risk. I've showed you how to just put enter at the zone, put a stop loss above and a target at a 1:1 riskreward ratio. And now what I'm going to teach you is how to execute this consistently. You are going to have periods of time where you lose multiple trades in a row. I have had complete idiots join my Telegram channel and then watched me lose three trades in a row and then decided that that was evidence that this trading approach doesn't work. And meanwhile, these same people are going and trying to use 1 to 10 riskreward ratios, taking seven trade losing

10:45 streaks before they finally get one partial winner. And apparently they think that's a better way to trade. Okay, cool. Just last week I had a losing streak. You can see that you can see it here in this telegram channel. You can see all the multiple trades I lost in a row. I went through a period right here where I lost 1 2 3 4 five trades in a row. But you can see the average loss in the conglomerate of all these trades. You can see there's a $20,000 loss, $5,000 3,000 $15,000 $600 loss, which is break even. But when you look at the average winners right here, $25,000 right before the losing streak and then $27,000 right after the losing streak, these two trades alone right here make up for all of the losses that occurred in between. So, because I make more on my winners than I lose on my losers, that is what makes me profitable. You have to make more than

11:31 on your winners and you lose on your losers. Otherwise, it just won't work. And whenever you recognize that, whenever you recognize that you have losing trades and you're going to sometimes have multiple losing trades in a row, your psychology and your emotions and that nasty little creature inside you kicking and screaming and yelling that, "Oh, it's not working. We shouldn't do it." You end up being able to ignore that because you do know that long-term you will make more money than you lose. Imagine if you knew that for a fact. Imagine if after this video you were 100% convinced that if you in fact can just make a little bit more whenever you're right versus the amount of money that you lose when you're wrong. What that does to your psychology is it gives you this delusional level of confidence that nobody can understand unless they've subjectively personally experienced it for themsel.

12:19 This is something that I work very hard on showing in my free Telegram channel because again I show everything. I post my P&L there every single damn week. Okay? I know what the hell I'm talking about. I've gone through horrible losing streaks and I've gone through parading winning streaks where things just everything seems like it's crazy. Like I'm on right now for the past four months. Almost every single week for the past four months has been profitable and every single month for the past four months has been profitable. I've gone through multiple months when I was losing too and I still posted that in there. Okay, things are up and down in trading. Whenever you know that long-term you're going to make more than you lose, you can execute it consistently because you don't care if you have a win streak or a losing streak. you keep doing the same damn thing over and over. And we're going to reinforce this by going into the back testing mode here on Trading View, the little replay function. And I'm going to

13:04 show you this step by step. So, first what I'm going to do is I'm going to go to a random number. I've got this random number generator. We'll select a number between 1 and 20 to try to find a 4x pair to trade. The number we get is 19. So, let's uh we're going to have to go 19 pairs down. So, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19. So, we're in NZDJPY. That is this pair. Now, what we're going to do is I'm going to hit the replay mode. And then what I'm going to do is start new. Then, I'm going to click this thing here to take us back to a random bar. And I'm here on the daily chart. So, this takes us back to December of 2010. So, this was 16 years ago. So, this will be perfect proof that this works because even if it was working 16 years ago, of course, it's still going to work today.

13:51 So, what I'm going to do is exactly what I told you at the beginning of this video. But we're going to look at the current market price, which is right here. And we're going to draw the next clear support zone below price. And we're going to draw the next clear resistance zone above price. Now, what I'm going to do is I'm going to adjust this just a little bit because it looks like price was bouncing down here. Now, we're just going to wait for price to get one of these to to one of these zones. It's either going to get up here to resistance or it's going to get up here down here to support. And it's not going to go sideways forever. So, I'm going to click forward on this little replay tool thing, and we're going to wait and see which area it gets to. So, it's looking like it's going to come through the support. So, it came there into the support. Now, one thing that you saw me do is whenever price gets to

14:37 the support, I will watch price to see if it starts to bounce. Price did in fact start to bounce right there. So, I would have taken a trade and this is what the trade would have looked like. It would have been a long position right here. with a stop loss just below the zone and then a target of a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Now, this right here, I don't even know if it'll let me go to the 1 hour time frame. It says it doesn't even have the historical data to do this. So, we might have to switch to a different set of the chart data because this is 16 years ago. But even so, I'm still going to show you that it works even without being able to do that. Um, this is a 1:1 riskreward ratio. This one lost. Now, ideally, you know, when price starts breaking through the zone, if I'm watching it on the 1 hour, I can get out quicker. But let's just say this hit the stop loss. So, now we've lost one trade.

15:22 Now, we do the same thing. We're going to look and see the next clear zone below price, which in my opinion is right here around these lows that bounced. And the next clear resistance zone above price is this high right here that uh you know, where price broke below this zone. Now, it might come back and retest it as support. So, we're going to click forward. Price does in fact get back up into this resistance zone. So, what I'm going to do is I'm just going to fine-tune this just a little bit to encapsulate these little highs up here. Then, what I'm going to do is I'm going to enter a short position. I'm going to enter a short position right here at the zone. This one was a loss. And then what we're going to do is we're going to let this play out. So, my stop loss, it only has to go probably like right here. The takerit 1:1 riskreward ratio. Now, we're going to let this play out. So, it starts to go up.

16:08 Still hanging out above the zone. And so now what we're probably going to try to do is if it comes back to the zone, I am going to close the trade probably around break even and then get into a long position. So it keeps going up, keeps going up, keeps going up, and then it hits the stop loss. So now I've lost two trades in a row. And again, a lot of people will freak out about this because they don't think they'll make more on their winners and they lose than their losers. I'm going to show you. So now what we'll do is we're going to find the next clear resistance zone above price. I actually think these highs right here present a perfectly fine resistance zone. So, I'm going to be trading looking to trade that. So, now what we're going to do is we're going to wait for price to either come back down into this support zone or go back up into the resistance zone. So, price gets up here into this resistance zone. I'm going to do the same thing I always do. I'm going to sell at resistance.

16:55 I'm going to put a stop loss above the zone. I'm going to put a target at 1:1 risk ratio. Now, what we'll do is we're going to let it play out. So, price breaks above the zone. It could just be going up here to these extreme highs. So, what we'll do is we'll still hold it. Then price jumps above the zone and then hits the stop loss. So, now this is three losing trades in a row. Again, most people will lose their mind the moment this happens in trading. People hate having losing streaks. I get it. I don't like having losing streaks either, but it's a part of trading. So, now we'll wait for it to either come back to test this little recently broken resistance zone of support or we'll let it go all the way back up to the top and hit that as resistance. So, price does in fact come back here and test this zone of support. So, as soon as price gets there into that support zone and starts bouncing, what we'll do is we'll

17:40 go here to long position. Enter a buy stop loss just below the zone and a target of a 1:1 risk or reward ratio. We're going to play this forward. So, this comes back into the support zone bounces and then ends up going back down below the zone. So, what happens here is that now we've lost four trades in a row. Most people just can't stomach this at all. But again, just remember last week alone, I lost five trades in a row. So, with price doing this, what we're going to do is we're going to wait for it to either get to the next resistance zone or the next support zone. So, it looks like it's going to come up here into this resistance. So, it gets up here into the resistance zone. We sell at resistance. We put a stop

18:27 loss just above the zone and then a target at a 1:1 risk ratio. Then, we let this play out. So, this one goes up. So now we have a five trade losing streak, which is absolutely freaking ridiculous. Um, and now we're going to wait for it to either come back to the support zone or start at the resistance. So it comes back to the support zone. Now we're going to buy buy at support. Put a stop loss below. Put a target of a 1:1 risk ratio. This case, it actually goes to the profit target. So we've won one. Now, we're going to wait for it to get up to this next resistance zone or come back into the support. So, in this case, it comes back into the support zone. You can see it already rejected right here. I'm I'm I don't like the fact that I can't use the 1 hour chart because I go

19:12 to the 1 hour to watch the price action, and that can avoid a lot of this trade duration and everything. Doing it here on the daily, it still works, but it doesn't work as well as being able to like watch the price action because you can get out a lot earlier before price hits the stop-loss if you do that. So, I'm going do the same the bas the same basic trade that I did as the one before. Buying at the support, stop loss below at the same location, target at the same location. In this one, it looks like it within a day it hit the profit target. Okay, so that one wins. We're going to wait for price to get to one of the next zones. So, price finally makes it up there to the resistance zone. So, just like I said, I will short right there at the resistance zone. Maybe the entry is a little bit below the zone because price uh you know, it hits it, starts going away, and I usually enter after that. So stop loss just above the zone target at a 1:1 riskreward ratio. So this one so

19:58 yeah basically already hit this already hit the profit target. So then price goes down. Um this zone I probably would have redrawn something like this just because this is where all these little wicks have been bouncing here at the zone. So that's the zone restructured. In this case it looks like it got there into the zone. Again I can't see the 1 hour chart cuz it won't let me go back to that to that price data. But it did break below the zone and then it came back up into the this resistance zone and tested um and then in that case this would have been the zone. It would have just basically been a break and retest trade. So price broke below the zone, had a nice move down, pulled all the way back up and then started to reject on that little wick right there. So here we have another perfectly fine trade um that is perfectly feasible and viable to take. So in this case, what I'd do is I would

20:44 get short here at this zone probably after it started going down a little bit. So because that just shows it's rejecting. So an entry like that stop loss above the zone targeted a 1 to1 riskreward ratio. So in this one basically in like the same day would have uh maybe like a maybe like two days would have gone and hit the profit target depending on which candle you had entered on. Okay. So now what we've had is we've had five losing trades in a row off the bat. Now we've had four winning trades in a row and we're just going to keep going. We're going to keep on playing out the stats. So price gets back here into this resistance zone. It's still a valid trade. Sure, it could come back and break above the zone and price could end up going to the upside. Sure. But this is still a valid trade because price is coming back and retesting a resistance zone. And it bounced again. So, what we'll do is we'll enter that there. And then same

21:29 stop loss, same profit target. And then we'll let this one play out. So, this one's going sideways. So, there are some cases where I would probably get out of this at break even. But again, we cannot see the 1 hour chart. I the the data won't let me go back because we're so long ago. So, we have no choice except to manage it here on the daily. So, it comes all the way down, almost hits the profit target, starts coming back up in this case, breaks above the zone. So, this will probably end up turning into a loss. Okay. Well, this for some reason ended up actually working out. All right, fair enough. This took a long time, though. My trades do not take anywhere near this long. This trade look took like yeah like like a like a month and a week.

22:14 This is it's absolutely ridiculous. This is not the this is it's not representing exact real data obviously, right? This is just we're in back testing mode. I'm showing you the concepts. However, again, you can follow everything in my free Telegram channel. All this stuff and I post YouTube videos recapping my trades and everything in Telegram recapping it. But again, this teaches you the basic components of it. So that way you can go do it yourself. So then price comes back in here to the support zone. The same thing, right? I buy at support. I sell at resistance. So in this case, I buy. I put my stop loss below the zone. Put a target of 1 one. And the stop loss probably don't need to be that low. Probably pull it up just a little bit. And then we'll let this play out. So it looks like it goes it goes a little bit below the zone. Still tries to pin as support. Going to have to watch which way this

23:00 goes. So that one actually comes down and hits the stop loss. Cool. Now what we'll do is since we're below the zone, we need to check and see if there's any other clear support resistance zones. I don't see anything else clear. I still think this right here represents the most clear zone. So, we're still going to be using that to trade off of. If price can come back up and test it as resistance. So, I'm going to wait for price to come back up. Test as resistance. It gets there, touches it as resistance, I'm going to enter a short position right here. I'm going to put my stop loss just above the zone and a target at a 1:1 riskreward ratio. And then we will see how this which direction ends up going. So, it goes up, it hits the stop loss. So, now we'll do the same thing. It's either going to come back down here as support or it's going to continue up to the next zone and we can sell at resistance.

23:45 So in this case it goes so it already jumped away from it. But you can see like next zone sell at resistance. The same exact trade logic applies. So we're going to sell at resistance up here. Put a stop loss just above the zone. Put a target at 1:1 riskreward ratio. And then if this this trade ends up working out after like you know one or two days of price data at cool. So, we're going to do the same thing. If it comes back in there to resistance again, we'll sell. And if it comes back here into support, we'll buy again. Um, this support zone is looking kind of sloppy now. So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to try to honestly, I'm not really seeing this as a clear support zone anymore. So, I'm just not going to use it anymore. I'm going to wait for price to get to a different location. Okay. So, price gets down here to these lows. I'm going to see if price starts

24:31 bouncing here. And then if it does, then I can take a buy. It doesn't look Yeah. Okay. Well, it ended up bouncing, right? Well, you know, I I didn't take the buy. I missed it. Cool. Whatever. I'm going wait for price. It looks like it might get up to this resistance zone again. So, we'll see if it gets there. So, it almost gets there. Now, it's in the zone. So, we'll do the same thing. Could it break above? Sure. Anything could happen. You don't know what'll happen. You can't predict what'll happen. All you can do is enter and you can control risk and you can keep doing the same thing over and over again. Price breaks above the zone, comes back to test as support. Um, this looks like it might not work out. So, yeah, this is one of those things where I'm using the 1 hour chart helps me a lot because it

25:17 makes the trade duration so much quicker. Um, in this case, I have so many opportunities to get out if price looks like it's not going to work out. Um, using just the daily chart doesn't allow me to do that. However, again, you know, it still works. It just doesn't work as well as being able to use the context. So, this is a loss. Comes up to the next resistance zone. We'll sell at that next resistance zone. So, we'll sell soon as it gets there. So, it got there the little wick away there on the daily chart for that first candle that touched the zone. That's enough for me to say, okay, it's fair enough. It's fair game. We can get in. Put a stop loss just above the zone. Targeted a one to one riskreward ratio. And then we will let this play out and see what happens. So, this falls away, comes to the profit target. Now let's see if it can go back up there again. So it does in fact go up here again. Goes back up into the zone. Starts to fall away with

26:03 a little bit of a candle. So in this case could sell right there after that little rejection. Same basic stop loss just above the zone. Target at 1:1. So now the target has to be down here which is a little bit lower. And in this case it hits the profit target. Let's wait for the next trade. It's either going to go up to resistance or down to support. So in this case it goes down here into the support zone. So we will buy here at the support zone. We'll sell at the resistance stop loss below 1:1 riskreward ratio and let's uh let it play out. Breaks below the zone. Again might be a trade that I close early if I'm watching this in real time on the 1 hour. In this case it goes into the stop loss. So, we do

26:49 the same thing. And you're kind of getting the hang of it now because you're starting to see, look, all you're doing is buying at support, selling at resistance. There's there's barely any work to do because most of your work is done through Trading View alerts. You just set an alert and price gets to the zone or it doesn't. Okay, price gets up here to this resistance zone again, starts to reject. You know, maybe the zone is actually something like that. So, it's close enough. Price is not perfect. Not going to perfectly hit every little line you draw on the chart that's arbitrary. get to the zone, we sell, price starts to react, goes down, hits the profit target. So, let's just go ahead and count how many wins and losses we have. We'll first do the losses. So, we had 1 2 3 4 5

27:39 and we had six 7 8 nine. So, we have nine losses. And how many wins do we have? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9. So we have nine losses and nine wins. This goes perfectly in line with what I was saying at the beginning of this video, which is to say that even if you just have a 1:1 riskreward ratio, the worst case scenario, if you just let it go to take profit or let it go to stop-loss, is that you're probably just going to break even. This right here, this is a data set of about sample size of about 18 trades, that proves that point. You will be ahead of 90% of

28:25 traders if you just basically blindfold yourself and buy and sell at random zones and just hold it to the one to one take profit or stop loss. This demonstrates that it's just going to break even. Okay. Now, if we kept doing this over 50 to 100 trades, it'll probably still at least break even, you know, net of fees and commissions, but there's a chance it might actually be a little bit of a profit. Um, I don't know that because I'm not able to trade based on this lower time frame. So, what we're going to do is we're going to go to a different pair. We're going to start a new back test session and we're going to use the 1 hour chart as well. So that way I can actually show you what I actually [ __ ] do, which is to get out of the trades a little bit earlier if they start going against me. This right here, I would say this is like this is not even a good back test. And even then, it still broke even. How beautiful. Cool. I'm going to clear all the drawings off of this. Now, what we'll do is we will go here to the random number generator. Uh we're going

29:11 to use number 11. And just a caveat here, if it goes if it takes us back too far, like 10 15 years ago, I'm just going to do a different point on the chart because I have to be able to use the 1 hour chart to be able to actually show you what I actually do. So, this is number 11. So, what we're going to do is 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11. Whoa. What the hell just happened? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11. So, 80 JPY. So, 80 JPY. Let's go to a random bar. This is in July of 2020. So, I can go to the 1 hour chart. So, this is perfect. So, now we've got here we've got this random pair. We went back to a random time random time random position where I can go to uh the 1 hour chart. Now we're going to uh we're going to actually play this all out. So this is right after the pandemic spikes happen.

29:58 So we have a clear resistance zone here on the daily chart. So the moment price gets into this resistance zone and starts to reject. This right here is a trade I would have taken first, but that's already happened. This second time it came up and tested this zone. This is another trade I would have taken because it's still viable, right? It's still at this resistance zone. still along where all the highs have hit. So when price gets into this zone and starts dropping, I would have entered basically like right here after price started dropping away from it just a little bit. You can't, this doesn't work if you're entering way down here after price has already had a big move away from it. But you just want to see that price has hit the zone and then it's starting to move away. All right, so I've got this trade now. I'm going to go to the 1 hour chart and then I'm going to watch this on the 1 hour chart to decide what to do to see if I can get out early if it starts to

30:44 not work. So, this looks like it's really struggling to bounce here at this zone. I'm going to stay in just a little bit longer and if we get any move to the upside, I'm going to scratch out. So, I'm going to scratch out there. This is like what, a third or a fourth of the way to the stop loss. This is a small loss. Now, we're going to see what actually would have happened. Maybe it ends up having dropped at the zone. Maybe it would have just continued spiking up. We're going to see. So, this ends up coming back, ends up spiking up above the zone. Let's uh let's adjust the resistance zone up to here since that's where price is bouncing now. And this one ends up going up. So, this one would have hit

31:29 the stop losses. This this is right here. I know it's only one trade. We need to get let's get like a sample size of at least 10 trades here doing this. But this proves my point that if if price starts not working out or starts going sideways and starts doing stupid [ __ ] that's not going to the profit target. Getting out early is the best thing you can do because that is what guarantees that your average loss is smaller than your average win. Okay, perfect. That demonstrates this perfectly right here. And you won't always get it right. Right. Sometimes you close and then it ends up going to the profit target and you're like, "Wow, I just missed a good trade because I closed early." But the better chunk of the time price starts not working out. It's better to just close the trade. You remove the risk by doing that. So price ends up running up. Is it going to come back? Yes, it comes back into the zone. What do we do? This is a

32:15 break-in retest trade. We're just buying at the support zone, right? It broke above. We're going to buy at support. Put a stop loss below the zone. And then I put a target at one to1 reward ratio. And for most of these trades, as you know, I'm risking $25 to $50,000 per trade. basically. So, now that we're here on the daily, we're going to go to the 1 hour chart and I'm going to show you we're going to look at this closely as it starts to kind of play out to decide what to do. So, now it starts to go below the zone a little bit. Let's let's watch these candles and see what happens. Is it going to come up and find resistance or is it going to get back above and maintain the support? So, it kind of gets back above. We have a nice move up. We might have a pullback here. Let's play it out on the hourly and see what happens. Is she Is she struggling? Is she gonna

33:01 go? What's going on? Kind of going sideways now. You'll notice I'm not closing when it's in profit. I'm I'm I'm always electing to hold as as far as I can whenever a trade gets in the profit. Now, we come all the way back here to support zone, and we're going to have to watch to see if it starts breaking below or if it starts bouncing again and going up. So, in this case, this is not looking good. We need to, you know, where's the actual support zone? Maybe it's down here. So, it's going to go up. It looks like it made another lower high. So, this is a trade that looks like it's no longer going to work out. So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to elect to close this trade right here.

33:47 So, we'll say it's the same as before, right? About a third of the way to the profit target. Okay, cool. So, now we've lost two trades, but these two trades have not been one unit of loss. These two trades have been one-third of the loss. So, for example, if you had risked $10,000 on each of these trades, you would have lost about 3,300 on each. Let's just say 3500, right? So, it's about $7,000. Instead of losing, you would have lost 20,000 had you held it to stop-loss. And let's see which way this would have gone. Would it have gone up or would it have gone down? This one would have gone down. So again, this perfectly paints my point here and it illustrates that whenever you get into trades that aren't working, okay, even if they start working out initially, right? This one almost hit the profit target, then it came back, you have to get out of those losing trades earlier and quicker than you get out of winning trades. Winning trades

34:33 must be held at least to your original target of 1:1 riskreward ratio in like 90 95% of cases. There's some cases where it's not true, like if it the market's about to close in on the weekend or something. But for the losing trades, you want to find every reason you can to get out a little bit earlier. Some idiots who have no profitability in trading will say this is emotional trading. You're trading on impulse and your psychology is messed up. It's stupid. You can look at a chart using a logical and rational framework and you can decide to get the hell out of a trade that is clearly not working out in your favor. It is okay to do that. It does not mean you're trading emotionally. It's one of the stupidest [ __ ] things I hear people saying is they're saying, "You're trading emotionally because you're closing the trade early and this just devolves into this horrible psychology and this and that." And I'm like, "Okay, maybe they haven't made millions of dollars

35:18 trading. Maybe haven't they haven't called out their trades live for over half a decade." Cool. Fair enough. You can listen to them or you can listen to me, someone who practices what they preach. Getting the hell out of trades early whenever they're not going into profit is the better idea most of the time. And I've proven that right here. Just this is with two trades already. This would have gone basically to the stop loss. Yeah. So that would have hit the stop loss. So now instead of having taken two losses, we've only taken like less than one unit of risk loss. So we're going to go back here to the daily. We're going to wait for price to get to one of these zones. Will price get there? Yeah. So it gets up there. So it gets up here into this resistance zone. And so the moment price gets up into this resistance zone. That

36:04 daily candle looks like it closed there without closing really far past it. Um I'm going to go ahead and get short on that. So we'll get short here and then we'll put a stop loss just above the zone and all those little recent highs at the zone. All the little recent highs is just all these things over here, right? So the stop loss needs to be above all the recent highs because it could technically go a little bit further and still be a valid trade. We'll set a one to one riskreward ratio. Look how close the target is, right? It's makes it a lot easier when you use one to one. Um, then we'll go to the hourly chart and then we'll see. So, from the moment we entered, it would have gone sideways for maybe like 10 hours and it would have started to go to profit. Let's uh let's hold the trade and let's see what would have happened. So, this one ends up going to basically the profit target. So, there. And if it didn't get hit that first time due to spread, then it would have got hit that

36:49 second time. So, now look at what we've done. We've taken three trades. We've lost two of them, right? But we only lost a third on each of them. And this one hit the profit target. So this is equivalent to having taken two trades right here. And then you lost those two trades for $3,300 in profit. So that would be 60 $6,600, right? $6,600. And then now you have a win for one R. So now just on this one winning trade, even with a 1:1 risk ratio, because we've dynamically managed the previous two by just all that means is just you close the damn trade if it looks like it's not going to profit. It saves you time. It it frees up your trading capital. It prevents you from losing stupid trades that are probably going to lose anyway. It is so much of a better way to approach trading as compared to just holding on to trades and praying they

37:34 work out. Um getting the hell out of losing trades early and holding winning trades that instantly going to profit is the way better way to do it. So this is a net profit so far. So let's go ahead and take a few more trades here. We need to see where price is going to get to. Is price going to get to the resistance zone again or is it going to get to a support zone? Is this a clear support zone? Let's see. I'm not quite sure. I kind of think this will be a better one down here. So, I'm going to I'm going to wait and see if that zone gets reached. So, this one would have ended up going down. And the cool thing is even if we took a buy there at support, the moment it starts coming down, right? So, this would have been the support zone we bought at, right? So, this basic zone right here. Let's say you entered it by like right

38:21 here and it starts to bounce, right? In some cases, depending on how tight your stop was, maybe that would have hit target. But in re in realistic cases, like no, this probably would not have hit target. Your stop loss probably would have been a bit further. But when price starts going down here really quickly and closing below the zone, say right there with that big candle, you could close that trade and that's probably going to be about halfway to the stop loss. So now you close that is about halfway to the stop loss. Now instead of losing a full unit of loss, you've only lost, you know, like one. Um, you can avoid a lot of this often times by just using a super clear support resistance zone because at least it'll have that initial bounce usually. So now let's see if price gets down here into this little support zone. It doesn't. Ends up spiking up above. Let's see if it gets all the way into that resistance zone. So it does look

39:07 like it gets here into this resistance zone. This is an interesting one. So we need to make sure that we're accounting for all of these highs right here. Price has gotten into this zone. We pushed this is a really big bullish candle, right? Not the best sign, but still it pushed and then with this daily candle, it started to reject and it closed uh a little bit below the zone. So, what we'll do is we'll go ahead and enter a sell. This is just purely based on technicality. It came up into the zone. It didn't break it. So, let's just say we enter like down here right after it's already bounced a little bit. Stop loss above the zone targeted a 1 to1 riskward ratio. Now, we're going to watch very closely and we're going to see what price does. Does it start rocketing up or does it start going into profit? So price comes into this zone, starts trying to bounce here as support, makes a lower high. Now it starts going sideways. Now we have a little bit of a

39:54 new high and some higher lows forming. So this is something that looks like it might not work out here. I'm going to see what it does here at this high. Okay, it still bounces at the high. Let's see if it makes a higher low here and tries to go back up. Oo, it kind of loses that area, falls back. So, we bounce at the support. And now, let's see if it can actually break this little recent little support here. Go back below. So, this does in fact go below. And now, let's see if it reaches the target. Oh, this might be a close one. Narrowly missed the target. Let's see if it bounces here at this resistance or if it breaks above. Breaks back above. Now, we're going to see if it bounces here at support or if it starts to turn over again.

40:41 bounces at support, has kind of a little weak rally, starts to go sideways. Will it break up or down? Tries to break down. Oh, if we could just get a little bit more of a selloff there. Would that have actually hit? I mean, it's a it's a 1:1 riskreward ratio. Okay, finally. Yeah, this one was kind of a pain in the ass, but still. You'll notice how much time did we spend in draw down? basically just this right here, right? And it didn't even break that little recent high. Had we started spending a lot more time in draw down or just going sideways here in this range, right? So like with higher lows kind of trickling up, I would have probably gotten out of this trade. It would have been maybe a third to a half of whatever the stop loss was. Most of the time this trade was open, this was spent in profit right here. This was spent in a little

41:28 bit of draw down, break even, and then profit profit profit profit profit break even, profit, profit, profit, profit, profit. It is very important to not close trades early whenever they are in profit. Again, unless the market is about to close for a weekend, you're going to have to battle swap fees and spreads and all this stuff and and the price is already like 90% of the way to the profit target basically. Yes, in those cases, you can close trades early in profit. Not a big deal, but in most cases, you want to hold your winning trades longer than your losing trades. This right here demonstrates that. So, let's go ahead and look at the metrics right here. We've had two losses and two wins. So basically it's a 50% win rate right now. But on the trades that we've won, we have made leaps and bounds more than what we've lost in losing trades. So for these right here, right, we've lost what? 6,600. So that would have been a third of the way is $3,300. So

42:14 that's $6,600. But we've made $10,000 on each of these, right? You do the math. 20,000US 6600. Let's just say it's a $7,000 loss with all the fees and commissions you'd pay for all these. 20,000 minus 7,000, we're left with a $13,000 profit after four trades with only risking $10,000 per trade. And I say only because I that's I just trade with higher amounts of capital. If you're risking $100 per trade, that's perfectly fine. $1,000 per trade, that's fine. More or less, that's fine. What matters is the premise of this. The concept is what matters. the fact that you do this over and over again without the loss of enthusiasm, knowing that you're gonna have win streaks and losing streaks and knowing that the worst case scenario imaginable, just like in the first back test where I was unable to manage things dynamically. You saw the first five trades in a row, I lost. I

43:01 did not lose any enthusiasm. And then I come back and through a set of wins and losses over the course of 18 total trades, I won nine and I lost eight. I basically broke even before fees and commissions. And again, remember that is the worst case imaginable. Most times if you're just blindfolding yourself, entering random one to one risk reward trades, not managing them early. By managing them early and dynamically like this, this allows you to have your winning trades go further than your losing trades. So I lost a little bit on these two trades, but I won a lot more on these two winning trades. That is the beauty of trading this way. So what we have done is we have gone up here. We have done two back test scenarios. One of them was just the daily chart and just you know like only basically only holding it to the profit

43:46 target or stop loss because I wasn't able to go to the one hour chart. Um and then now what we've had here is we had a back test where we did I I was able to actually trade how I normally do which is to enter the trade and then monitor it to close it early if it looks like it's not going to work out and hold it longer if it looks like it is going to work out. I have taught you how to keep it boring here in this video. I have taught you how to structure the risk for every single damn trade with a stop-loss past the zone target at 1:1 risk ratio. I've taught you how to execute this consistently. Even when the first five damn trades I lost in that first horrible back test didn't work out, I still stuck through it. There was no loss of enthusiasm. I kept doing the same thing over and over and over again. No matter how painful, no matter how cringe, no matter how shitty you may feel inside and emotionally torn up you may feel mentally, you have to keep going, recognizing that the stats are going to work themselves out. And I've

44:32 given you back test examples showing you over and over how to do this. I've showed you that with just one to one riskreward ratio that you're probably even just going to break even. If you completely suck at trading, breaking even, you'll be ahead of 90% of people who do in fact lose money trading because trading is risky and most people do lose money. And now I've also given you back testing example showing a back test where I only won half the trades, right? That there was there was two of them that won, two of them that lost, but on the winners I made more than what I lost in the losers. And that is how I get these results that you see in my Telegram channel from the stuff that you'll be following over the course of the next few months after you click the link in the description to do my one-hour long free training video. And then you click forward to the next module in that free training. And it gives you a link to this Telegram channel where you can follow these trades and analysis as well. $359,000 before swaps and commissions over the

45:18 course of the past four months. And also, if you factor in crypto and stocks and forex trading for the past decade, I've made millions of dollars doing this. And it is not complicated. It is very simple. It is very boring. And yet, it is very consistent and predictable. And I do all this just being an average person who is lazy as hell, who just does the bare minimum to trade and getting 100% more better results than 90% of the people who are doing all these complicated trading strategies. I I do it doing basically 10 times less. I hope this video was useful. I'm not going to ask you to like the video or comment or subscribe or any [ __ ] like that. I just want you to go and do this on your own. I want you to test it. I want you to click the link in the description and do my free training and join my free Telegram channel because that is a valuable valuable resource that can really help aggressively move

46:04 the needle forward in you and your trading progress. I want you to win. I make these YouTube videos because it really does make me happy to see a lot of other people win. You do not have any edge decay here sharing your trading strategies in forex. The forex market is the biggest market in the world. Yeah. No, it is the biggest interbank market in the world, the currency market. And then on top of that, there's no edge decay if you're just a little retail trader like me. Like me, risking $25,000 per trade is nothing. You have hedge funds putting billions of dollars on capital for their positioning, thinking that price might go up or down in a specific direction. Me teaching you what I'm doing as a retail trader is not affecting the market and it's not going to cause the strategy to not work. So, cuz I see so many people saying stupid [ __ ] like, "Oh, if you were truly profitable, you wouldn't teach people your secrets." It's not a [ __ ] secret. People have been using support

46:50 resist trading, support and resistance trading for decades. It's so some of the I just see people say so much stupid [ __ ] and they say it so confidently and so casually dismissive and charismatically when they have zero results and they don't prove anything they say. I back up the [ __ ] that I say by showing you actual live trades. And I have done that consistently in my Telegram channel for the past eight years and in my private Discord group where I share every single exact trade I take live with the entry, stop-loss, position sizing, dollar amount risk, all the updates and everything like that. I have practiced what I've preached. I've walked the walk instead of just talking the talk. So my wish for you is that you actually take the stuff I've taught you here in this video and in my free training and in my free telegram. So that way you can apply it to your own trading and make radical progress over the course of the next 3 to six months.

47:36 Hit that link in the description. I'll see you in my free training. Cheers.

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