0:00 [Music] so you've got a new book out and uh I like the title des4 but I but I the subtitle I don't like because you use a pretty big word in there and I'm going to need a little help with it it's h it's called destined for work can America and China Escape through so we even put up a website called see who's talking about thusi orities his name is thdi thusi track and THD trap is a big idea what's this trap what is what is THD trap the big idea is that when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power stuff happens bad stuff uh basically alarm Bell should sound
0:45 extreme danger ahead I look at the last 500 years uh of history and find 16 cases where Rising power threat in said displac a major ruling power 12 of them in in War four of them in not war so the challenges to learn the lessons both of the successes and the mistakes so we've got uh we've got a rising power and the rising power is China that's what we're talking about uh the ruling poers of the United States uh we've got 12 cases in the past in the past 500 years where Rising power and a ruling power have come to war and four cases where they've where they've peacefully War averted so we've got a 25% chance that we'll have World War II sometime in the next well I mean they're basically just on that on that record but I would say it's obviously more comp licated than that so
1:31 this is not a statistical study this is not meant to be political science or social science for the sake of a of a of a sample we are inviting identification of additional cases because every case is interesting because it helps you see some of the additional twists and turns but in every case the central axis is the rising power which becomes more assertive uh very naturally normally wait I'm bigger I'm stronger I deserve more say I deserve more s and the reactions of the ruling power which says well you're challenging the international order you're challenging the status quo you should be grateful for the environment that I built that allowed you to grow up to be bigger and
2:16 stronger so that Dynamic we see over and over with many interesting nuances and that's why the six 16 cases are fascinating as is the first case 2 200 years ago between that and spart
