0:00 Today we are going to explain the Bitcoin bare market. If you are active online, you can see that a lot of people just got this uh 2022 fractal. Put it over here and this is going to be the Bitcoin's bare market with the top being put on October 2025 and the bottom to be put in October 2026. So basically just copy pasting the last bare market. So this is going to be the same but I'm here to tell you other way. In the first part, we're going to analyze the Bitcoin's bare markets. And in the second part, we will speculate on the structure that is going to be formed for the bare market next year. Basically, if you did find this all over the internet, just remember that this is 90% of all the people in crypto just preparing for
0:45 a bare market. And if you are new here, so am I. We just got over 10,000 subscribers. I only have 24 clips. My suggestion to you is subscribe and binge watch all these clips. you will get a better view on how I think about the market in this phase of the cycle putting up much more into perspective than just Bitcoin's chart. We also talk about all coins, the S&P, the real recession indicators, etc. Now, let's continue with the Bitcoin chart. You can see here that from uh 2013 with a top in November for Bitcoin at $1,000 almost $200, the bare market started and we can draw a trend line to observe when the trend line was broken out of with a retest going into the next bull market. We have something like let's see into
1:30 the lows from the highs 400 days. So basically just over a year, something like 14 months, but the actual breakout and retest happened much later going into something like 670 days, basically almost 2 years. So what did you do back then? Because I most certainly know what I was doing here. >> Fire in the hall. Fire in the hole. >> Of course, I knew nothing about Bitcoin and accumulate the next potential global reserve asset in the future of finance. Of course not. And from here, Bitcoin, you already know it, did something like 100x. Now, going into the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin put on the top in December 2017. Another thing to consider right here is uh Bitcoin's draw down into the bare
2:16 market. In 2014, 15 it was 87%. Just remember this. Let's see 2017 from the top until Bitcoin broke out of this trend line. Let's check out the bare market lows. 360 days something like a year from top to bottom and the draw down was something like 84%. So lower than 2015 the next set of gains for Bitcoin was something like a 22x so lower than this ones. Remember also this information 87% draw down 100x into the next bull market. 84% draw down 22x into the 2021 bull market. Now let's see from the top in 2021 in November we got the
3:02 draw down for one year just like in 2018 77% discount so we clearly see a pattern here drops and pops got lower so the volatility is reducing for this asset now doing exactly the same drawing a trend line you can see here that in January 2023 we broke out of this trend line retested it in March and from January I started bull posting this was my confirmation that the bare market was really over and these were my last buys. Let's see this cycle's gains until now. We have an 8x. So basically an 8x for Bitcoin is clearly the same pattern that we saw in past cycles. Gains are lower but also dumps are lower too. Now if this is to be true, let's indulge this
3:47 conversation. If the top was here in October, we should see the bottom in October 2026 and everyone posting this fractal. It looks very nice. It looks very easy. Basically, just go short here, make all the money you can, and then buy all the Bitcoin sub 50K. This is just like saying that all the retail on this planet know exactly how the cycle will play, and they will all get the chance to make money, unlike this cycle right here. Now, exactly as I explained in the last clip on my YouTube channel, I am now 100% certain that this will not happen. At least not this way. Now going into our cycle with the exact same strategy, we can see that from every range Bitcoin remained in. We can put on the similar trend line and just observe when it is time to break up.
4:33 This one was the longest this year start into April major low. And we can do the same right here, right now. Let's put on the daily. And let's observe this trend line. Depending on what kind of investor you are or trader, you can put on this trend line in many different ways from body candle to week, from week to body candle or maybe from week to week. I like to start with the week to body candle because this way I get more information about this uh particular downtrend. Basically meaning three rejections here and some fake outs right here. If you stay on the 5minut chart, this could have looked like a breakout. But also remember that fake breakouts exist too to fake out some traders. Now if we do something like this because this time is almost up and we see another rejection we can continue the
5:19 downtrend. What can you do here? Maybe put on some shorts ride it down to sub 50k because that is the plan of most crypto guys. But now getting to the second part in this part we're going to talk about predictions because everyone on the internet wants predictions. I'm going to show you my own two scenarios that I think are playing out this cycle. First scenario because I do not think that this is happening next. I do think we have a breakout and not a fake one. And then we're going to go ripping higher into the start of next year because the market is not only trend lines and Fibonacci and math. In the end, the market is psychology, pure psychology. Just imagine going into a new all-time high in the year of the bare market and from here what is the plan for the whole crypto space? Because the plan is this one right now. What will be the plan right here? Imagine being in January at the end and Bitcoin
6:06 is at a new all-time high taking the 126 from October. What is the plan for all these guys that predicted this would actually happen next? You can just imagine, oh, super cycle. Okay, invalidated, bro. Okay, reassessing. Okay, searching for some past posts from maybe 2021 when they said this could be a lengthening cycle. I can go on forever, but uh this is actually the worst case scenario for most market participants because here the plan is what this never happened before. Nobody could have projected it just like a new alltime high before the hinging which no one could have projected. Right? This is the post from uh August 1st 2023 of mine saying this bare markets last more than
6:52 a year which was false. We watched the Bitcoin structure in its entirety for the whole three cycles since Bitcoin was invented. Second consolidation year after the bottom. No, we had rallies after the bottom is put. We had 450% 330% gains into the next year after the bare market year. And three, all-time high comes after the haling. I was one of the few that was mentioning this all of 2023 with the projection for Bitcoin at a new all-time high before the haling. While everyone projected that this market structure right here from here, now we go lower. Now we go lower. Now here we go lower. Why? because this was another structure that put the entirety of the crypto space wrongfooted again. This was actually a zone that I
7:40 was watching also 49K, 48, 50K, something like that. It was the exact same area in the past cycle that got rejected for Bitcoin and then it went for a 70% draw down. Let's see it. Rejected right here. 72% draw down before the bull market continuation. I remember big accounts from here getting bearish and saying that Bitcoin is done or at least it should have something like this and then after the hinging and only after the hinging we would go like this. Guess what happened? The exact opposite. They were looking for a structure like this and I'm not even dropping names. You already know them. Millions of followers claiming that they were right all this cycle but I remember that they were all bearish this cycle especially here before the hobby. And
8:26 another thing I did not just project this market structure before the hinging. I also said that after the halving everyone would look for continuation to the upside. And I said nope. This is the psychology I was talking about. Post from March 2024 1 month before the hing. This is what the whole crypto space uh thought before the hinging. We always have a dump bro. Trust me. This was invalidated and then no dump after the haling because they were looking at this structure alone. In May 2020, this was the Bitcoin's halving and after the halving, we never saw the lows again. But people forget to look at other cycles. July 2016, this was the Bitcoin haling. What did Bitcoin do? Exactly the same thing. What is the draw down? 38%.
9:12 Actually, there's more. Let's see. from the perfect top, the perfect bottom, 40% discount. This is not a skinny discount. It's a 40% almost half and it happened after Bitcoin's hing. So basically all the people on the internet were just PTSDing after the last cycle and we dumped after the haling. Also, this correction lasted longer than I expected. But the next projection for me, if you remember or follow me on Twitter, was this one 93k into the 104K important fib levels. So now what is everybody projecting this right here? I want to be skeptical. So my main scenario is actually this one going to new highs. People would need to invalidate themselves here. And if this happens in my opinion, this whole 30 plus% draw downs, this bull market for
9:59 Bitcoin would not mean anything because the next draw down is way way bigger. And as a bare market draw down, in my opinion, until January 2027, in this case, with a blowoff top like this, Bitcoin's draw down should be bigger than the past cycle. Why? Because everyone is saying the same thing. Smaller gains and smaller bare markets. This would invalidate again all of the people online. And you can hear them everywhere. Oh, bro, next cycle, I promise you, 100% into Bitcoin. I'm just leaving all the old coins aside. Please, my guy, please just go watch this clip because in my opinion, a monster cycle is preparing for all coins starting 2026. But there are still some gains to be made this cycle. Watch this one if you want to understand my view on the old coin market. Now going to the
10:46 Bitcoin chart. If this is about to happen, I think a big down is happening next. Maybe some consolidation just to go down again. But again, the max draw down should be bigger than the last cycle. meaning bigger than 77% but my guess would be 80 something%. Because in this case, all the people would put on this uh ruler right here and they would calculate, oh my god, what happened to Bitcoin? The quantum just ended it. I'm not buying this [ __ ] 80% draw down. No, I'm good. I'm just moving to stocks. It's okay. So, this is my main scenario. This would [ __ ] up everyone, and I mean everyone, bulls and bears. Now, the secondary scenario, in my opinion, should be something of this nature, maybe. and going into, let's see, let's put on some uh random months, December.
11:33 By the end of December 2026, this could become something like this. Take the highs, take the lows again, again, again, again, and again, and all of the people online would not know when to buy Bitcoin again because this doesn't look like a bare market. Look, this was a bare market. It's clear as day. This was a bare market. Clear as day. What the hell is this? This would also mess up the entirety of market participants mostly into Bitcoin just developing a long range in which all the retail traders are basically wrecked if indeed they still have any money. You would hear online that these ranges right here are a trader paradise. If you remember my posts on Twitter, this is not a trader paradise. This is how the market makers make money. Maybe 1% of the
12:19 traders make money here, but the majority of the money is taken from the traders. And just imagine a cycle like this where Bitcoin is still 80K, something like that, and 2026 is done and all the people online are just looking at this chart and going, "What the hell is happening?" Again, this is my secondary scenario. So basically is this and then big down or a big range just shallowly taking the highs and then taking the lows and just ranging for a long period of time crapping on everybody making a traders too for all the bare market year and just faking out everyone. And why are these my main two scenario big up big down or just ranging ranging ranging ranging because one or the other would look entirely different than past bare markets. This again is
13:05 purely psychological. This bare market right here in 2018 does not look even remotely to what we had in 2021. The bare market from uh 2014 does not look remotely to what we had in 2018. There are some pivots here and some seasonality but that's it. Again putting this on the 2022 actually this one let's say could be more relevant than uh 2018 but again the structure is always different. The structure needs to always be different because otherwise it would be the traders who make money and retail investors and not market makers. Who is going to pay the market makers? Basically, these are my two scenarios going into next year. And the invalidation levels are not price related for me. I only watch time pivots. The next time pivot is January
13:52 20, something like that. Again, if you go to this clip right here, Bitcoin, the most popular B scenario, I've explained the same thing and I've also explained the time pivots. Go watch this one also and remember to subscribe to the channel. Let's get more of you guys in here. These are rookie numbers. Let's get those numbers up. And these things are actually explained way way early for my subscribers. And if you want to become one, check out the game obliquid.com. Check out my track record right here. Check out the presentation. See what you will get as a subscriber. We also have a discord channel. I'm making market updates more in depth than uh what we do here on YouTube. And also we talk daily on the Discord. So that is it for today guys. Enjoy your weekend and have a great time in the market. Take care.
