"If Modi Does Not Follow 75-Year-Retirement Rule, He & RSS Will Be At Loggerheads": Yashwant Sinha

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简要总结

这段对话主要讨论了印度总理莫迪的政治地位和未来走向,以及印度人民院选举后的政治和社会动态。主要观点包括:

  • 莫迪的权威正在减弱,政府内部出现混乱。
  • RSS可能要求莫迪在75岁时退休,遵循其制定的规则。
  • 莫迪可能寻求总统职位以获得豁免权。
  • BJP内部存在分裂的可能性,组织结构混乱。
  • 企业在印度治理中扮演重要角色,可能影响政策制定。

部长和官僚机构的抵制

目前,印度部长和官僚机构内部出现了一种抵制情绪,这导致了一些奇怪的事件发生。过去莫迪掌控一切,这些问题都被隐藏起来,但现在都浮出水面。当总理失去民意支持,试图通过不正当手段继续执政时,人民可能会走上街头,导致混乱和民主削弱,任何事情都可能发生。希望领导示威的人能保持克制,避免重蹈孟加拉国或斯里兰卡的覆辙,实现可控的混乱。

莫迪的退休问题

印度人民院选举后,莫迪的处境备受关注。RSS可能要求莫迪在75岁时退休,就像他们对其他人一样。RSS已经暗示应该遵守这一规则。如果莫迪不遵守,他将与RSS产生冲突,这对BJP和NDA不利。莫迪意识到自己可能犯了很多错误,卸任后可能会面临追究,因此他可能会寻求另一个具有豁免权的职位。

莫迪寻求总统职位

莫迪可能正在寻求总统职位,以避免卸任后面临的风险。如果德劳帕迪·穆尔穆因健康原因辞职,莫迪可能会成为印度总统。BJP内部存在强烈的不满情绪,基层领导人对党的未来感到担忧。BJP有可能像多年前的国大党一样分裂成两部分。

BJP的组织混乱

BJP的全国执行委员会已经很久没有开会了,他们无法选举自己的主席。BJP的组织结构一团糟,党内没有民主,无法进行允许人们表达意见的会议。BJP已经堕落,这令人遗憾,因为它曾经是一个纪律严明、具有前瞻性的政党。

企业的影响力

企业在很大程度上影响着政策的制定,无论是外交政策还是国内政策。美国财政部长公开表示,一家企业在进口俄罗斯原油时获得了过高的利润,达到了160亿美元。印度从俄罗斯进口的廉价原油大幅增加,但消费者并未从中受益,利润都被一家企业攫取。这导致其他企业不满,政府内部一片混乱,表明莫迪已经失去控制。

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0:06 You are saying Mr. that there is a certain level of defiance now which is setting in within the ministers within the bureaucracy and which is why these kind of strange developments are happening and earlier Modi was in command he was in the driver's seat so this was all hidden nobody knew about it but all that now is playing up on the forefront >> absolutely absolutely this exactly what I'm saying and um you know when such a situation comes and the person who has lost the prime minister who lost lost popular support tries to stick to his post by as I said by hook or by crook then the people rise. This is a tailor made situation for people hitting the

0:51 streets and when the people hit the streets chaos follows democracy is diminished and um anything can happen. But uh when people hit the streets, are we going to see a similar scenario what we saw in Bangladesh or Sri Lanka? The people came, they entered inside the palaces, overthrew the things. Are we going to see a similar kind of a scenario or do we have enough safety levers to control that kind of a situation? Well, I hope uh the leaders who will be the who will be leading these people who will hit the streets will show circumspection, will show maturity and will not allow those things to happen in

1:37 India which we have witnessed in Bangladesh or in Sri Lanka that there will be chaos but it will be a controlled chaos. >> A controlled chaos you're saying. But uh coming back to Prime Minister Modi uh what is the kind of situation which you think Prime Minister Modi is going through now? His uh birthday is round the corner. We already had the RSS chief talking about the fact that if you cross 75 years then it's time for you to retire and all these things are precipitated around his birthday. So is the atmosphere right for RSS to tell Modi that please now it's time for you to back off and let's bring in a new leader. >> They already have. You see BJP and NDA

2:25 have a majority in parliament in Lok Sabha. So there is no threat to the government as far as numbers are concerned. Isn't it? The only point is whether Prime Minister Modi will uh give up his post or not. Now RSS is saying that you apply the same rule to yourself that you apply to others. I know that personally because I had turned 75 when I decided that I will not contest elections and I did not contest the 2014 election because this unwritten rule was in the air that those above 75 are not welcome

3:10 and those above 75 who did contest locture and got into parliament uh suffered a very tragic fate because they were part of the government but not part of the government. They had no role to play in uh in in parliament. So what I'm saying is this now applies to Mr. Modi. He's turning 75. The rule should apply to him. RSS already indicated that this rule should be followed. And if Modi does not follow that rule then again he's an RSS he and RSS will be at loggerheads and that's not good for the BJP or the NDA.

3:56 >> No but despite all these pinpointings and despite all these accusations which are being made against the government the election commission do you see any change in Modi? Because when I was uh listening to Prime Minister Modi when he was in Gaya just day before yesterday or two days before, he again was talking about this Guspetia infiltrators and the PMCM bill. So his arrogance, his high-handedness doesn't seem to change at all. So do you think that he's going to change? He's going to step down. What is your sense Mr. Mr. SA on this? I I will agree with you that it's not easy for him to step down and it's not easy for him to step down because he realizes he must be in the heart of his

4:42 hearts be aware of the fact that he has done so many wrong things that they'll come visiting him after he is no more the prime minister of India. So his plan of action will be to go from one post of immunity to another post of immunity. You know anything is possible in this country has shown the way. >> So has shown the way? >> No. So you are saying that prime minister Modi is seeking another post of immunity so that there is no harm to him. So that post is only the post of the president. So is he looking at that? >> He he could be looking at that. I'll not be surprised at all if one day like Dhankar we hear that Drai Murmu has

5:28 resigned on health grounds and the post of president has become vacant and elections will be held and Modi will become the we become the president of India. I'll not rule it out at all. >> No, but I'm I'm just imagining that if at all this scenario turns out to be true, we do not know as of now. But what is happening to BJP as a party within uh internally because there are strong rumblings. I've spoken to uh BJP leaders on the ground off the record. They are very very scared and they say that we do not know what's going to happen to the party. Earlier they never used to speak to the media but now they have started speaking to the media people of the record and they say that Nuji is very difficult to uh estimate as of now as to

6:13 what's going to happen. So do you see the possibility of BJP getting divided into two parts like what happened to Congress years back? >> I I don't rule out any uh such possibility. Uh do you remember when the last meeting of the national executive of the BJP was held? >> I remember when I was in the I was in the BJP, we used to have meetings of the national executive. Even when we were in government, every 3 months that is the rule that every 3 months the national executive or the BJP will meet. They will not only meet but they'll also pass resolutions. Now nothing happens. There is no meeting

6:59 of the national executive. They can't elect their own president. The BJP organization is is in a mess. It's a complete mess organizationally. BJP is in a mess and people in the BJP who are still important in government or in organization would surely be aware of this that that it's not a democratic uh party at all. There is no internal democracy in the BJP because uh because uh the meetings are not taking place where people would have been able to raise their voice. It's a party which has gone to the dogs

7:46 and I am very sorry about it because it was such a such a disciplined party. It was such a forwardlooking party at one time under Mr. Vajpay and Mr. Adwani. But uh supposing if uh Prime Minister Modi and then again it's speculative because we do not know as of now whether Prime Minister Modi will step down or not but the way the maneuverings are happening at the corporate level and we all know that uh at some point of uh uh you know there is a situation where the corporates almost start governing the parties and this is what is really happening uh whether it is the Amanis whether it is the Adanis they are driving the policy at every level whether it is the foreign policy or the domestic policy who do you

8:33 think is on the driver's seat right now is it prime minister Modi and Sha or is it the corporates which are driving with their vested interests along >> the corporates are I don't know whether they are driving but they're playing a very very important role in the governance process of this country I'll give you an example no less a person than The Treasury Secretary of the US came on record to say that in the import of the Russian crude oil, there has been undue profits earned by one corporate house.

9:18 He put the figure at $16 billion. Now this is not something which has uh been even noticed much less being uh talked about in the Indian media. But the fact is that we have imported cheaper crude oil from Russia. Our our imports have gone up from less than 1% to almost 40%. But the benefit of cheaper products like petroleum, petrol, diesel etc. have not been passed on to the

10:04 people of India to the consumers. They have been they have just been grabbed by one corporate house. Now naturally the other corporate house will be very angry. Because if they have made enormous amounts of or they have been allowed to make enormous amounts of uh undue profits then he he'll feel left out. He'll also want his you know part of the pie. So he'll be angry. Dwal will be angry because Jungar is playing a role. Jashungar will be angry because Dwal is playing a role.

10:51 There is there is a complete chaos in the government at this time and that is an indication of the fact that Modi has lost control. Earlier it was not possible because he was controlling everything. Now he's not controlling everything. People are aware that he's not controlling everything. People are aware that he's become weak and therefore they are doing what uh whatever they want to do. or deferring with or picking up enmity with uh their colleagues. [Music]

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