0:00 Is the Bitcoin top in and end the cycle done? In today's YouTube video, we're going to talk about if this time is different, put on some charts and see where we actually are in the cycle. This is a post from uh March 30 on my Twitter account speaking of how tops form and how Bitcoin dances in all cycles in this Fibonacci area between the 1.272 and the 14. This is the 2017 cycle. This is the 2021 cycle. And this is our cycle. Every time we touch this uh area we have a big rejection. You can see in the 2021 minus 34%, in the 2017 minus 39%, and now we have touched it again almost at the 1.4. You can see that this area right here was a big area for Bitcoin. Rejected
0:47 once, twice, third time. And if you remember our clips on this YouTube channel, if you are new here, so am I. So just give a subscribe. And in my opinion, you should binge watch all these clips because they are not a lot and will make more sense on how I'm viewing this market going into the cycle end. And when we were something like here, I made the YouTube clip saying that this is not healthy. Just one week after the other, just green, green, green, we should have something like this, like a wave two, and then continuation up. And right now, if you watch all the Twitter posts in the majority of them, you will see people being bearish and putting on the 2021 narrative like a double top. This was actually summer 2021. And this is the secondary shallow top. And we're going
1:32 into a bare market just like we had here. And I see this fractal literally everywhere. Everywhere you look is the same pattern. But if you remember our talks here on my YouTube channel, I was eyeing the 140 area for Bitcoin with an overshoot. So let's talk some psychology because that is all the market is. It is not math. It is not only fibs. It is not only IOT waves. It is based on math. So the 140 area is a very common area with a lot of confluences on the Fibonacci. We can also see if we take this wave structure right here from the top to the bottom we have on the 2.618 another confluence on the 140 for Bitcoin. Again on this wave structure we have the 136
2:18 but it's never a fixed price. You can overshoot to 140 to add another conference. So all the big eyes are on the 140 area. And in my opinion, we either do not touch it and for the first time in history, we don't have a blowoff top to end the cycle like in all cycles and we do something like this and we don't do a pattern like in 2021 because the market never deals the same hand twice. Or my base case scenario is that this 140 area which can be looked at a major shorting area could be overshoot something like 160. This was my base case 155 160 because this is a very obvious area to start taking profits and start shorting. So basically this is it for Bitcoin. In my opinion the top is not in. And if you guys remember what
3:05 would be my cycle top or cycle end last trigger and in my opinion it is this one. In these clips of mine, we also talked about um the altcoins and how it is my belief that until the Bitcoin dominance doesn't reach this area right here, the cycle is not over. This is not how a cycle is ending. You can see in all the cycles, they ended in the same way with big speculation. So, it looks like this started already, but we have one missing piece of the puzzle. Another thing to watch is the recession indicators. And if you remember from this clip, the real recession indicators that already started flashing that weren't the SAM rule or the unemployment rate or the CPI, it was first the US 3 month yield. And I've explained the
3:50 three scenarios that could happen with the rate cuts because Powell or Trump do not decide when the rate cuts should be delivered. It is the bond market. And you can see from here in 2024, we had the summer breakdown of the US 3 month. And when we got to the FOMC and we got 50 basis points because the US 3 month dropped from uh 5.25 down to 4.5. That's a 75 basis points drop for the US 3 month and the Fed cut with 50 basis points. Then again we got to 425 and this is actually from 425 to 450 the range in which the Fed rates are maintained. Let's see the Fed watch tool. You can see we are here now. So the Fed rates just move hand in hand
4:36 with this US 3 month and now they are proposing a 25 basis points cut. So this is basically no news. This was one scenario. We break down slowly with no panic and this would mean a cut into normalization. The other scenario was uh we just keep this uh range inbound just do like this something like another 3 to four months and nothing happens no new rate cuts and this is good for the market no need to call any tops. And the third scenario was we have some big cascading red candles and we drop very fast in which case we should be worried because something is wrong in the market and they should panic cut. Those were the three main scenarios and we got the one that says we can cut into
5:23 normalization. And now this just begs the question if the Fed will actually cut because by the time we have the FOMC on the 17th of September, if this continues and we go into the 4% and we stabilize there, a cut will be good and the no cut will be bad after it because it could be clear that the Fed just wants to be late to this party and in my opinion the market will not be resilient to that. Also on the weekly time frame we have some major pivots. You can use astrology, you can use some ichimokus, but this area right here on the 20th of October into 27 into the start of November. This, in my opinion, should be a time for some dumping. And from there on, maybe into December and the start of
6:08 the year, we have the last rallies and it's time to call for the cycle end. But until then, in my opinion, we are close to this ending. But for the US 3 months to break down as ugly as I've explained, we should have also the US 10year doing something like this. Meaning the last risk on move and then preparing for cycle reset and another bearish dump means that the top was in but it was met only halfway. This breakdown could be something like a month lag between uh the US 10ear and the US 3 month. So what we don't want to see on the US 3 month is this kind of candles on the weekly. You can see that here it stopped something like uh September 2024 but then it stabilized and what we don't want is candles like this just continuing down like you saw in the
6:55 pandemic. So this is why I am not ready to call the top yet. But I guess from 2024 I had a lot of bull friends which I already lost on the way because they were all ready to call the cycle top at every major breakdown. Yeah, the top is in. The top is in. The top is in. And when this summer started, this is all I saw all over Twitter and also on the YouTube, which I've explained since uh June 8th, just watching the structure and just analyzing the psychology while we had the new market structure forming. And this is what Twitter looks like to me in the summer of 2025. Major accounts with 500 or more followers were saying the exact same thing. And look at this. they are still posting the same two three months later getting something like two to three thousand likes while me just getting something like 400
7:43 likes. So basically this is the psychology on the entire market at this point in time. So I'm nowhere near calling tops right now because also we have the Bitcoin dominance chart looking like already forming a top. And what I want to see here is something like this because I want the drop into this area right here to be as big as possible because this delivers more gains than this from here. We shall see. But when we get into this area right here, the sentiment and the psychology will be completely shifted. We would not see charts like this. Just imagine Bitcoin at uh 160K. this narrative of uh just like 2021 bro will be dead and you will hear people calling for a new bull market into 2026 which is also a new
8:28 narrative that started something like at the new alltime highs no more cycles 4-ear cycle is dead and now after this drop right here the sentiment is on the opposite side and this is exactly what you want to see correlating this with the Bitcoin dominance chart which is nowhere near the bottom I guess we just have to sit and wait I started accumulating again If you are new to the channel, I recommended you go as heavy as you can into defy and also the ISO compliant coins like Algorand Defies like CRV or CVX. And this is actually the area for me to add CVX because in my opinion this at least this should be filled into cycle end. And then we will see how these charts look into 2026 and
9:14 2028 2029 because in my opinion in the next cycle we will have the biggest gains since 2017 on the winning charts. So be careful what you're choosing. That's why I want my whole exposure into all coins to be in DeFi and also the ISO compliant coins like Algorand, like IOTA and some others. There is still money to be made into all coins this cycle, but the best money you could make in my opinion is the 2028 2029 bull market. If you want my whole theory on this cycle and also the next, if you want to see how I choose my players and what my strategy is to add or to sell and how I look at the whole cycle, first be subscribed to my channel and second become a member at the game of liquidity. I'm posting four to six market updates on the website going more in depth into this uh things that we're
10:00 talking about also on the YouTube channel. And we also have a discord channel where we update more often and snipe some good spot positions into good old coins and maybe also some trades. Join us if you want and if not, no worries. Just be subscribed on the YouTube channel and I'll catch you in the next one. Have a great day. Bye.
