0:00 The recession has started in my opinion. But there are a few missing pieces at least in the market that tells us that we still have higher to go. And in today's video, we're going to talk about all of them. And if you don't know who I am, my name is Christian. I have only 22 videos on my channel. And you are invited to subscribe to stay in my opinion on the right side of the trade as I have been since the bottom in 2022. Not too many videos for you to binge watch. And if you watch all of them, I promise you, you will better understand my view on the markets. Now what happens when we get into a recession? We get rate cuts. So this whole cycle of rate cuts from uh 2019 into the pandemic, we saw Bitcoin do this downtrend with a final push of 65% just before the COVID crash. So the first missing piece before
0:46 something like this could occur is in my opinion to be seen on the rate cuts cycle. So where are we today? We are at 4% interest rates and Bitcoin is looking like it wants to do something like a bare flag. Maybe it's validated. Maybe we see the lows again. But in my opinion, we still have something like this to see while the rates are being kept paused or they are being cut. The next missing piece is actually the US 3 month. In the past videos, we talked about this delta. Basically discounting the yield level from the rate level. So when we had the rates at 450 basis points, we had the yields just below something like 20 to 30 basis points. So the delta should be something like between 20 and 30 basis points to keep this delta delta delta delta to keep
1:34 this healthy delta cuz if not we would be having a cascading move down for the yields and this could mean panic cuts and this is triggering this recession that all people are talking about today. But we are not there yet in my opinion. Today we have the FOMC and the chances for a new rate cut are growing but the delta right now from where we are with the rates at 4% just increased for a bit and I do not know if it's enough for them to cut the rates. But if they do, this is totally a normalization cut and not a panic cut. Just like we had in 2024 where the Fed cuts 50 basis points because the yields dropped from 525 into the 450 and the delta was kept positive and then the rates stabilized in this range 425 and 450 for the rates which
2:22 kept the delta healthy. Another missing piece is the US 10ear. So basically this is the lagard. You can see here that uh before the pandemic, we had this stabilizing in a range until February end. But the US 10ear in this potential bare flag, we started to break down from January. So we had a whole month of warnings until February and until this one started to crumble down. So right now for the US 10ear for it to trigger the potential recession and the panic cuts, we need it to drop below this level. And when it does, we have something like one to two months to prepare for this crumbling down also very fast. And this could come in my opinion something like April to May or all the way to December next year. We will update on it later. Now if we go
3:08 into Bitcoin's history, we have just one similar occasion where we were in this situation just before this recession while yields were stabilizing and Bitcoin put on a bottom on December 17 and then we had a big rally of 60 62 64%. I saw a lot of guys that were drawing fractals from 2022 like this one and just place it down onto our chart today just mentioning that this is the case again for Bitcoin. But I have a different opinion because cycles might always repeat but fractals don't. So if we want a fractal before this happens, meaning the bare market, I think we'll get this one. This would mean a 40% which is the bare case. Basically a test of uh 116 to 120 for Bitcoin or a new
3:56 all-time high going into Q1. Something like this, which will invalidate all the people that were posting the same fractal from 2022. And from here they would need to say I'm sorry please let us back into the bull market and maybe then just have something like this while we cut into normalization or maybe we pause for one to two FOMC's December and January or cut 25 basis points today and maybe in January as long as the yields don't do this we are safe in my opinion but then in this case this could be what's happening next. Maybe not this tragic, but I want to watch how uh we close the year and also what the price for Bitcoin is in January and February. For now, this is my base case. Another missing piece that we always have in every cycle is the Bitcoin dominance
4:42 indicator. Again, if you remember our last post here on YouTube, we talked about the seasonality for Bitcoin dominance. Every cycle when we got a big drop into the start of September, the seasonality would reverse and would be strong into November and December just before this signals the cycle ending with a drop of let's see 50% on the Bitcoin dominance which triggers the last rallies into the altcoin market and Bitcoin topping for the cycle. The same thing with the seasonality can be applied in all years. Let's check the opposite. You can see here that we started September in 2019 with a pump on the Bitcoin dominance and then the other way around until February. Then the dominance reversed again 2020 September start we have the dump and the other way
5:28 around until December. Then this happened and triggered the cycle ending. Let's see the big drop in the Bitcoin dominance 45%. What do we have today? we have this big drop into the start of September. And I was mentioning since then that the next phase for the Bitcoin dominance is up until November or maybe December. And if this is the case from December into January and February at the least at the least we should have the next big drop into Bitcoin's dominance and from the top we should measure something like 35 maybe 40%. We will see how January and February or maybe March looks like for the Bitcoin dominance chart. But again if this happens the cycle has ended and me personally I will be 80% off the market in cash for now I am just 20% waiting
6:15 for the missing pieces to complete the puzzle. So the other missing piece is uh Bitcoin making lower highs while Total Three so all the other altcoins besides Bitcoin and Ethereum should make a higher high. And this this right here is where the dominance had completed that big drop. Let's see maybe if this is a coincidence. Going into the 2017 cycle, the same thing happened. Bitcoin topped in December and into January. It had a lower high while Total 3 did a higher high and this was the point where the Bitcoin dominance dropped and put on the cycle bottom and this signal the cycle ending going into a bare market. Now, where we are today, we have no such trigger. That's why I'm mentioning that this could also be the case for Bitcoin,
7:00 but I will only know in January, maybe February. Maybe we do something like this and then get off. But again, when we get into this part here, if we do a lower high and this does a higher high while the Bitcoin dominance drops hard, this would be the last signal for me to exit 80% into cash. Until then, no signal. Now, if you want to ask me, but what if this time is really different? So meaning the Bitcoin dominance shouldn't drop hard to complete the cycle but the cycle would look something like this. What if this is the case? Now let's think critically on the chart. No need for opinions just facts. What happened in this cycle while the Bitcoin dominance and continue to rally up and don't stop? What if the Bitcoin dominance continues to do the same? What should Bitcoin do all over 2026? The same thing that has been doing until now. Just creep up with higher
7:47 volatility while this time is different. So basically this means going into a super cycle which I do not think. I do not think that we would have a super cycle. I do think that this is the way for cycle ending and Bitcoin has another all-time high to do and then a lower high while the Bitcoin dominance drop and while total three does a higher high. These are the signals for me that the cycle is over and I should be 80% into cash. Just leaving some moon bags. Maybe some of them continue higher. I do not know. But as time pivots for me, as explained in other clips, January 20 and April start, this could turn something like this. If we have a big rally into this time pivot and we remain higher, the next phase of the cycle is down hard into that April pivot. If not, and this
8:32 pivot is actually a pivot low, then this could happen next. Maybe we see this and go down or maybe we see a new alltime high going into that April pivot and then big down. I'm placing both scenarios in the back of my head and just be prepared for both of them because I got my Bitcoin majorly below 20K and I sold some here, sold some here, didn't sell here because my targets were 160 and this could still happen. And if you ask me which scenario I favor the most, I favor this one because this is the most scary for me in my opinion because the other one with a pivot low in January and another lower high or higher high into April. This would bring more time to the table for all coins to outperform. Starting with Ethereum, this is a nice breakout for Ethereum versus Bitcoin. So basically
9:18 another missing piece from this cycle is Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin and signaling the cycle end while the Bitcoin dominance drops. And I do not have targets higher than this one for Ethereum Bitcoin chart. Then doing something like this in 2026. And if this happens, in my opinion, we form a 1, a2, and a three, four, five going into 2028 and 2029. And we take these highs and Ethereum could massively outperform Bitcoin. And this doesn't mean that Bitcoin isn't going to pump hard. This just means for me that Ethereum could outperform if this is the case this season. And 2026 is actually not a super cycle as the Bitcoin dominance folks all over the internet tell you that the Bitcoin dominance should just go up and Bitcoin is in a bare market which makes no sense. This tells me that Bitcoin has
10:05 another higher high to do but then it could be over very very quickly. We will see how this unfolds. Also the USDT dominance looks like we have a top here but we have some room to see exactly how this cycle unfolds. And I am totally 100% discounting this scenario right here. just copy pasting the 2022 bare market and all the people on the internet would buy again the November lows to make a lot of money in the next cycle. That's not how things work. We would have a totally different structure this cycle meaning the bare cycle something like this big down rebound high prices then get into that October November period of time where everyone wants to buy the cycle bottom but for Bitcoin just to do something like this maybe or we could form a big range here
10:51 for the market makers to liquidate everyone left and right and when the bottom comes no one knows what it's going to look like leaving everyone's sideline. These are my two main scenarios and we will see which one of them is unfolding into next year. My bet is still on this one. Higher highs big down and maybe here into this time window we see something like uh that lower high that I'm expecting and a higher high on the total uh three while the Bitcoin dominance is crashing hard and signals the end of the cycle. And remember guys that the actual recession it doesn't last. It doesn't really last. It's a big drop just like we had with Teraluna. This is the big chunk of the bare market. This was, let's see, 64% out of a total of a 77%. This is what
11:38 you want to avoid. You could have sold Bitcoin also here or here. A lesson I learned in these markets is that you might sell something at the top more or less, maybe 50%, maybe 30%, again at the bottom. You might catch the bottom with 30% or maybe 50% of your money, but you are interested in the chunk of the move. you are interested not to ride Oliver gains in the chunk of the move that lasts something like let's see this bare market 76 days and then the accumulation started and you want to sell most of your coins into this chunk of the move. So if you remember from my last post I only have 40% of my Bitcoin left. I sold 60% from here like 15 20% and here another 40%. And I'm looking to get rid of it. Even if all bears are right and
12:24 this is next, I am still selling my Bitcoin very expensive and I want to avoid carrying the coins through this or to something like this which uh let's see in March this lasted this bare market lasted 10 days. So basically this is my plan for Bitcoin and I will sell every other coin when I see those triggers and those missing pieces from the puzzle that I've explained in all of this clip. Maybe watch it again, maybe binge watch all the other clips. I'm hoping everyone here has something to learn from it and consider subscribing and if you are more advanced maybe check out the website in my description game recruits.com. I do a lot of market updates for members. Check out the website, see the presentation and see my track record. And if you want to take it to the next level, consider joining us. We also have a Discord channel where we talk daily. That's it for today, guys.
13:10 Have a great week. Let the time in the market reveal the real prices and just be patient. I'll see you in the next one. Fight.
