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0:00 This announcement is about solving the key missing ingredient. I think that our recursive improvement with that situation is probably an order of magnitude better than anything else in the world. I want us to live long enough to see the mass driver on the moon, because that's going to be incredibly epic. There actually isn't money in the future, and there's abundance for everyone. If you can think of it, you can have it. That's it. We bring you Elon Musk's latest 2026 presentation, where he lays the push toward terawatt-level space compute into one single roadmap. In this supercut, you'll hear Musk unveil the next-gen chip manufacturing process, the mass driver on the moon, and exclusive predictions about artificial
0:50 intelligence. Let's begin. We have a profoundly important announcement to make, which is the most epic chip building exercised in history by far. This is really going to take things to the next level. So, yeah, a level probably people aren't even contemplating right now. This is not in the... I'd call this sort of an out of context problem. It's not in their context. So we're going to adjust the context by a few orders of magnitude here. We aspire to be a galactic civilization. So I think the future that everyone, well most
1:36 people I think would agree is the most exciting is one where we are out there among the stars. Where we are not forever confined to one planet. That we become a multi-planet species like the best science fiction that you've ever read. And we want to make that real. Yeah, not just fiction, turn science fiction to science fact. That's the glorious, exciting future that I certainly look forward to. It's worth considering sort of like, how would you rate civilizations? There was a physicist, I think it was Russian in the 60s, Kardashev, he thought about at a high level, how would you
2:22 consider any given civilization? And he said, well, if you're type one, you're using most of the energy of your planet. And we actually still have quite a ways to go to be properly a Type 1. We're still using a tiny fraction of the sun's energy that reaches our planet. But the Earth only receives about half a billionth of the sun's energy. So the sun is truly enormous. The sun is 99.8% of all mass in the solar system. So sometimes people will ask me, like, what about other sources of power on Earth? Like, what about fusion on Earth? That is unfortunately very small because
3:08 the Sun is 99.8% of mass in the solar system. And Jupiter is about 0.1%, and Earth is in the miscellaneous category. We are, I think as Carl Sagan I think might have said, Earth is like a tiny dust moat in a vast darkness. Very, very small. The sun is enormous. So the way to actually scale civilization is to scale power in space. This is necessarily true because we actually capture such a tiny amount of the sun's energy on Earth because we're just this tiny dust moat. Another way to think of it is roughly like electricity production on Earth of all of civilization is only about a trillionth of the sun's
3:58 energy, which means if you increase civilizational power output by a million, you would still only be a millionth of the sun's energy. It's so inspiring to consider that, just how tiny we are in the grand scheme of things. And yet we often get sort of caught up in these sort of squabbles on Earth that are really very sort of minor things when you consider the grandness of the universe. And so I think it is important actually to consider the grandness of the universe and what we can do that is much greater than what we've done before as opposed to worry about sort of small squabbles on Earth type of thing. Yeah, we want to be a civilization that expands to the galaxy with spaceships that anyone can
4:47 go anywhere they want at any time. That would be epic. And have a city on the moon, cities on Mars, populate the solar system, and send spaceships to other star systems. That sounds like the best possible future. So to do that, we need to harness the power of the sun. So a terafab, while it is enormous, a terawatt of compute per year is enormous by our sort of civilizational standards. It is still just one step. along the way of being even a Carter Sheff. You still have a long way to go to even be a Carter Sheff II level civilization and you're not even registering as a Carter
5:36 Sheff III. So it's a very big thing by current human standards, but still small in the grand scheme. Very difficult for humans. So to accomplish this very difficult goal really requires a combination of efforts of SpaceX, XAI, and Tesla working together to create this epic TerraFab project. And Tesla and XAI and SpaceX have all done amazing things that people did not think would be done before. So there's the Giga Texas fab here. There's the Optimus robot that's being built. There's a global supercharging network. There's really quite a lot. And it wasn't that long ago when
6:22 people thought electric cars wouldn't amount to anything. And there were basically no electric cars for sale when Tesla started. And people said it was impossible, and now Tesla's making two million electric cars a year. And then XAI, although it's a new company, now part of SpaceX, has also built the first gigawatt scale compute cluster, which in record time, Jensen Huang from Nvidia said, He's never seen anything built so fast in his life before. A great compliment from NVIDIA. And then SpaceX, well, I guess you can read it for yourself. You already know. I mean, the reusable rockets, people said that reusable rockets weren't possible. And
7:08 even if you did do them, they wouldn't be economically feasible. So we did them, and then we made them economically feasible. And now we've landed over 500 times. And now we're doing Starship. And Starship is a critical piece of the puzzle because in order to scale compute and scale power, you have to go to space, which means that you need massive payload to space and Starship will enable that. So this gives you sort of just a sense of scale. We've got Optimus there, Optimus for scale. And Optimus is about 5'11", so it gives you a sense of the size of the Starship V3 rocket. Starship V4 will be much longer actually. The Starship V4 will make Starship V3 look kind of short. So we'll expand with
7:53 Starship V3 to 200 tons of payload to orbit from 100 tons with V3. And then you can see that's just a rough approximation of the AI, the mini version of the AI set. So that's roughly 100 kilowatts. It's showing the solar panels and the radiator to scale. So for some reason there's been a bizarre debate about radiators in space. It's safe to say SpaceX knows how to do heat rejection in space with 10,000 satellites in orbit. Might know a thing or two. So you can see the radiator is actually quite small relative to the solar panels. And we call that the mini-sat since that's just 100 kilowatts. We expect future satellites to
8:39 probably go to the megawatt range. So in order to get to the terawatts of compute per year, you need about 10 million tons to orbit per year and at 100 kilowatts per ton. We're confident this is feasible, like no new physics or impossible things are required to get there. So I'm confident actually that SpaceX will get to 10 million tons to orbit per year. And then we're building up to a terawatt of solar. So that solves the, well, it will solve the solar problem. the power generation. So then the key missing ingredient is therefore a terawatt of compute. So this announcement is about solving the key missing ingredient. The current output of AI
9:29 compute is roughly 20 gigawatts per year. This chart explains why we need to build the TerraFab, because All of the rest of the output from Earth is about 2% of what we need. So if you add up all the fabs on Earth combined, they're only about 2% of what we need for the terawatt project or terrafab project. We certainly want our existing supply chain, to be clear. We're very grateful to our existing supply chain, to Samsung, TSMC, Micron. and others, and we would like them to expand as quickly as they can, and we will buy all of their chips. I have said these exact words to them, but there's a maximum rate at which they're comfortable expanding,
10:20 but that rate is much less than we would like. And so we either build the TerraFab or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we're gonna build TerraFab. And we're starting off with an advanced technology fab here in Austin. And I believe Governor Abbott is in the audience. I'd like to thank Governor Abbott and the state of Texas for their support. So in the advanced technology fab, we will have all of the equipment necessary to
11:07 make a chip of any kind, logical memory, And we will also have all of the equipment necessary to make the lithography masks. So in a single building, we can create a lithography mask, make the chip, test the chip, make another mask and have an incredibly fast recursive loop for improving the chip design. To the best of my knowledge, this doesn't exist anywhere in the world where you've got everything necessary to build logic, memory and do packaging and test it. and then do the masks, improve the masks, and just keep looping it. So, and we're not just gonna do conventional compute in this. I think there's some very interesting new physics that is potentially, that actually I'm confident
11:55 will work, it's just a question of when. So this is gonna, we're really gonna push the limit of physics in compute. And we're gonna try a bunch of wild and crazy things. which you can do if you've got that fast iteration loop. I can't emphasize enough the importance of being able to make a chip, test it, and then change the design, do another one, and have that in a single building. I think that our recursive improvement with that situation is probably an order of magnitude better than anything else in the world. So broadly speaking, we expect to make two kinds of chips. One will be optimized for edge and inference. So that'll be used primarily in Optimus and in the cars,
12:45 but especially in Optimus because I expect the robots, humanoid robots, to be made 10 to 100 times more than the volume of cars. If vehicle production, vehicle production on Earth is about 100 million vehicles a year, and I expect humanoid robot production to be somewhere between a billion and 10 billion units a year. Yeah, Tesla's gonna make a very significant percentage of those is our goal. And then we need a high power chip that is designed for space that takes into account the more difficult environment in space where you've got high power, you've got high energy ions, photons, you've got electron buildup. It's a hostile environment in space. So you wanna design the chip, you wanna optimize it for space. And you also want to generally
13:34 run it a little hotter than you would normally run a chip on Earth to minimize the radiator mass. So, they're just a bunch of constraints that you designed something differently in space than you would on the ground. And for the space compute, my guess is that is the vast majority of the compute because you're power constrained on Earth. That's why I think it's probably 100 to 200 gigawatts a year of terrestrial chips, and probably on the order of a terawatt of chips in space. Just because of power constraints on the ground is probably, that's probably how it ends up. Space has this advantage that it's always sunny. It's very nice. So
14:24 I actually think that the cost of AI and deploying AI in space will drop below the cost of terrestrial AI much sooner than most people expect. I think it may be only two or three years before it is actually lower cost to send AI chips to space than it is on the ground. Because in space you don't need much in the way of batteries because if it's always sunny. The solar power, you're going to get at least five or more times the solar power you get in space versus the ground. because you don't have atmospheric attenuation or a day-night cycle or seasonality. And you're always normal to the sun. So you're really maximizing the solar power at that point. And the
15:11 space solar actually costs less than terrestrial solar because you don't need heavy glass or framing to protect it from extreme weather events. So as soon as the cost to orbit drops to a low number, it immediately makes extremely compelling sense to put AI in space. It becomes a no-brainer, basically. As you go to space, you get increased economies of scale, and things get easier over time, whereas as you try to put more and more power on the ground, you run out of space. And you start using up the easy spots, and then you get next level numby. Nobody wants the thing in their backyard. So
15:57 actually increasing power on Earth becomes harder over time and more expensive over time, but in space it becomes actually cheaper and easier over time. These are very important points. You know, how do you get to a petawatt is the obvious next question. And you get there by having an electromagnetic mass driver on the moon with robots with OptiMai and obviously lots of humans. And with that you can send a petawatt. You can create a petawatt of compute and send that to deep space. Because on the moon, the moon has no atmosphere and has one-sixth Earth's gravity. So
16:43 you don't need rockets on the moon. You can literally accelerate it to escape velocity from the surface. And that dramatically drops the cost once again of harnessing power and enables you to go a thousand times bigger than a terawatt. So for sure the future I want to see, I want us to live long enough to see the mass driver on the moon because that's going to be incredibly epic. That should hopefully get us to a millionth of the sun's energy at least. Humbling to think about that. But a millionth of the sun's energy would be a million times bigger than OST economy. Good from that perspective. And then, yeah, you expand
17:30 beyond that to the planets, to the other stars, and create the most exciting possible future that I can imagine. This looks a bit like the opening in Idiocracy with the mic judge. Unlocking an age of amazing abundance. Yeah, obviously the elements of that are sustainable energy, space travel, AI and robotics that bring amazing abundance to everyone. It's really the only path to amazing abundance is AI and robotics, which is not to say it can't go wrong. Hopefully, you know, but I think it'll probably go
18:15 right, and it'll be a future that you love. It's the best future I can think of, at least. And then we go beyond the moon, beyond Mars, and we sail through the rings of Saturn. Now, wouldn't it be amazing if you could buy a trip to Saturn? Or frankly, if you just have a trip to Saturn, I think things will just be free in the future. It sounds nuts, but, you know, if you've got an AI robotics economy that is anywhere close to a million times the size of the current Earth economy, literally any need you possibly want can be met. If you can think of it, you can have it. So I think Ian Banks, in his culture books, has it pretty much right where there actually isn't money in the future and there's abundance for everyone. If you can think of it, you
19:03 can have it. That's it. Which means anyone could have a trip to Saturn. It won't be just a few people. If you want it, you can have it. Join us on this journey and help us design incredible chips and make incredible chips. build a terawatt of ships, a terawatt of solar, and... ...tell me in tons to over it per year. Thank you. It is worth stepping back and looking at what Elon is actually describing here. The core issue here is not the fab itself. It is the compute gap. Musk gives a simple ratio Existing global output is roughly 20 gigawatts of AI compute per year,
19:48 while the target tied to his larger build-out is 1 terawatt, so current supply is only about 2% of what would be needed. That is the practical reason for adding new manufacturing capacity. The constraint is not demand for AI. It is the inability of the current semiconductor base to expand fast enough to meet much larger robotics and compute ambitions. The second main point is iteration speed. The Austin site is described as a single building that can create lithography masks, fabricate chips, test them, package them, revise the design, and repeat the cycle. The value of that setup is not just vertical integration. it is time compression.
20:36 In semiconductor development, the winning edge often comes from how fast a design can move from concept to measured silicon and back into revision. If that loop really is much faster than the standard distributed model, then the advantage is not only more output, it is faster improvement of the chips themselves. That matters because the competitive gap in AI hardware is increasingly determined by how quickly teams can revise architecture, packaging, power delivery, and deployment assumptions. One is for edge inference, mainly for cars and especially humanoid robots. The other is for space compute, where radiation, thermal behavior, and system mass change the design requirements.
21:22 That split is important because it shows two separate markets being built at once. On Earth, the priority is embodied intelligence, robots and vehicles operating at scale. Off Earth, the priority is large power-fed compute infrastructure. These are not minor variations of the same product. They reflect two different operating environments and two different scaling paths. The robot estimate is also one of the main economic signals in the transcript Musk compares annual vehicle production of about 100 million units with a future humanoid robot market of 1 billion to 10 billion units per year. Even if actual volumes land lower, the manufacturing implication is clear. If robots become a product
22:10 category produced at 10 times or more, the scale of cars, then the chip, battery, actuator, and supply chain requirements also move into a different range. This helps explain why internal chip capability is being framed as strategic. It is not only about AI servers, it is about serving what he expects to be a much larger embodied machine market than the auto industry itself. Another major point is power density and location. The transcript makes a direct distinction between terrestrial and space-based compute. On Earth, he expects something like 100 to 200 gigawatts per year of terrestrial chips because power becomes the limiting factor. In
22:55 space, he projects on the order of a terawatt because solar generation is continuous and does not face night cycles or weather. That is the infrastructure logic beneath the chip plan. If compute growth is ultimately capped by electricity and siding, then location becomes part of the hardware strategy. The implication is that future AI scaling may depend as much on energy architecture as on semiconductor architecture. That connects directly to the launch requirement. Musk says reaching terawatt-scale compute in space would require about 10 million tons to orbit per year, based on his estimate of around 100 kilowatts per ton for the satellite architecture he is showing.
23:42 Whether that exact ratio holds or not, the point is measurable. Space-based compute only becomes realistic if transport to orbit moves from rare, high-cost launches to industrial-scale lift. This is why Starship capacity is not peripheral in this logic. Compute in space depends on a logistic system that can move mass cheaply and repeatedly. In that framework, rockets, solar arrays, radiators, and chips are all part of the same industrial stack. The radiator discussion also carries a practical engineering point. He argues that the radiator mass is smaller than many critics assume and that SpaceX already has meaningful experience with thermal control because of its large satellite fleet.
24:33 Combined with the claim that future satellites may move from 100 kilowatts to megawatt class systems, the message is that thermal rejection is being treated as an engineering variable, not as a fatal obstacle. The same is true of solar generation. He presents terawatt-scale solar build-out as solvable, which makes compute the missing ingredient rather than power generation itself. In other words, the fab is being positioned as the step that closes the gap between available power and insufficient chip supply. The lunar mass driver concept pushes the same logic one step further. If deep space compute becomes large enough, then launching everything from Earth remains inefficient because
25:20 Earth adds both gravity and atmosphere. Using the Moon as a manufacturing and launch platform changes the transport equation. The important part here is not the imagery. It is the shift in industrial geography. Earth is treated as the near-term production base, orbit as the future compute zone, and the moon as a later logistics platform that reduces the cost of sending hardware deeper into space. If you want deeper analysis on where AI infrastructure is heading, make sure to watch our full breakdown of the latest AI developments in the new Elon Musk interview.
