Vollständiges Transkript von „How Banks Decide When a Trend Lives or Dies (And How You Can See It Too) - Masterclass Lesson 7“. Klicke auf einen Zeitstempel, um das Video an dieser Stelle zu öffnen. Du brauchst ein anderes Video? Nutze den YouTube-Transkript-Generator.
0:00 The easiest, most consistent, and highest paying trades you will ever take in your career happen when the market is in a confirmed trend. And you already know that. Every trader knows that. But here's the thing. Most traders aren't actually thinking about the trend. They're thinking about the reversal. They're sitting there worried about being the guy who's long when the entire market flips on them. And that one fear causes them to either bail too early on a perfectly good trade or hold way too long and get caught when the real reversal finally hits. And the worst part, those two situations look identical when they start. Same pullback, same candles, same gut feeling. So what do most traders do? They guess. And they guess wrong a lot. This is part seven of my 12-part master class, level two, understanding of time frame analysis, understanding round
0:45 trips and market stability. And what I'm going to show you in this lesson is the mechanical reason why trends continue and the mechanical reason why they actually reverse. This isn't theory. It's not a feeling. It's a structural force that you can actually see on every chart in every single market. And once you understand this, you're never going to look at trends the same way again. I've spent over 14 years studying this stuff. And I've taught thousands of traders, and I can tell you that this is one of those concepts that separates people who kind of understand market structure from people who actually know what's coming next. I'm not just going to explain the concept. I'm going to show you the exact same price action through two completely different lenses. yours and the big institutions that actually move the price. Same chart, same candles, two completely different experiences. And when you see the gap
1:32 between those two perspectives, you're going to understand exactly why you've been on the wrong side of these moves. All right, let's get into it. Okay, so the concept is called speed of money flow. And I know that sounds fancy, but it's actually really simple. Every participant in the market, doesn't matter if it's a retail trader, a hedge fund, a central bank, an algorithm, they all do the same thing. They open a trade and at some point they close it. Open to close. That cycle is what we call a round trip. That's all it is. A completed trade. Now, the difference is how long that round trip takes. A guy on a tick chart, well, his round trip might last seconds, maybe a couple of minutes. He's in, he takes a tiny sliver, and
2:17 he's out. someone trading off the monthly chart, their round trip could take weeks, months, maybe sometimes even years. And everybody in between, your five minute traders, your hourly guys, your daily, your weekly, they're all spread out across that spectrum with different roundtrip speeds based on the time frame they've chosen to trade. Okay, so that's the setup, but here's the part that actually matters. When a trader is inside their round trip, meaning their trade is open, that money is locked. It's committed. That capital cannot be used by anyone else. It's not adding volume to the market. It's not pushing price in either direction. It's just sitting there inside that open position doing nothing until the trade closes. So, think about what that means for a minute. What actually moves price? It's volume. It's buying or selling
3:03 pressure coming into the market. And if a huge chunk of capital is locked inside higher time frame round trips, that money is unavailable to fight the current trend. It can't be on the other side. It's locked up. And that's what stabilizes a trend. Not momentum, not indicators, locked liquidity. A trend stays alive because the money that would be needed to kill it is trapped inside someone else's round trip or in most cases a huge group of people's round trip. When that round trip finally completes and the money gets released, that's when things change. That's when you get the big moves. Let me draw this out for you so you could actually see the full picture. Here's a very simple graphic that will help you understand how round trips on different time frames creates stability in the market. And this all comes down to the patterns or
3:50 whatever triggers that traders are viewing on the time frame that they like to trade. So down here we have the tick chart all the way up to a monthly chart. Right here, this axis represents the trend stability. These O and the C's represent the open of a trade and the close of the trade. That's a round trip. in between the open of a trade. When a trader sees a a new pattern or a signal, whatever it is that caused them to open the trade until they close that trade, that becomes trapped volume. They get in, they get the liquidity they need to to enter the trade, but nothing happens until they decide to close that trade. And based on these time frames, the patterns that those traders are seeing, if someone is trading a tick chart, the beginning and the end of that trade can
4:36 be very fast. They're going to click in, it's going to do what it does, and then almost immediately they're going to get out because that is the view, the viewing of the patterns that they're looking at relative to that time frame versus somebody that's on a daily or a weekly or a monthly chart, they might be in a trade for months. And what that does is that creates trapped volume from the time they open and close that trade. So what this means is that when someone sees a big pattern or banks that are trading on much higher time frames see a major support or resistance and they start accumulating from that area and then the market takes off. That's what can cause these moves to stabilize and last a really long time. So, this is key to understand if you're looking to participate in those really big trends.
5:23 Here's another illustration to help you understand how time frames affect price based on their round trip. Right here we have fiveminute traders. You can see that the market is very compressed. If only five minute traders are active. This is about all you're going to get because that's all that they do. They get in and 5 minutes later whether the trade worked out or it didn't, they're getting out. That's their round trip controlling that price range. Versus as the market starts to break out, it starts to expand. Then 15-minute traders, their patterns start getting triggered. Then they act. Then they have a little bit longer roundtrip process. So that starts to stabilize price. And then maybe another support or resistance gets hit and now 4hour traders get interested. Their major levels are now getting triggered. So they start coming
6:08 in and then daily get triggered and then weekly get triggered and then monthly and that next thing you know you're in a big big trend and that's because the higher and higher time frames are becoming activated and you're not getting this small fluctuating movement anymore because the roundtrip speed is getting bigger and bigger and bigger. That's what creates the big moves. So understanding this stuff will help you stay out of this and work more towards participating in these types of moves. So now you can see it, right? Slow round trips create stability. Fast round trips create noise. The monthly guy holding a short position doesn't care about your fiveminute rally. He doesn't feel it. He's not going to close his trade because of it. And because he's not closing, his sellside liquidity stays locked and your rally just runs out of
6:54 fuel. Okay. So now here's where this goes from interesting to actually useful. I want to show you how a trade plays out through the full roundtrip cycle. first from the retail trader perspective and then from the banks and institutions perspective. Same chart, same price action, completely different game. So let's go over a quick illustration that talks about the difference between the retail traders round trip and the market makers or the bank's round trip because understanding the difference will help you predict where price is likely to go. That's why this is important. So a typical retail trader round trip is something like this. There's some condensed price action. It makes a move. Everybody looks at it and they buy the breakout because it's enticing them into the market. It
7:39 goes up a little bit. They think I'm a genius. But more than likely, it falls apart and they end up taking a small loss or or a big loss. Just depends. But this is how a lot of retail traders just get chopped up over and over again. Now, if you're interested in understanding where the big move is coming from this area, you need to think about it from the market makers and the bank's perspective because they're the ones that are going to move the big time frames. Now, let's look at this from the typical bank roundtrip perspective, which is going to be very different from the retailminded type of trader. So, we have the same price action. We have retail traders buying this breakout, but the banks are not. And why is that? That is because the mechanics are not in
8:25 place for the banks to make an effective roundtrip process. They need something to happen first which is guaranteed certain liquidity. So as the market breaks out that sets up people coming in and with these new trades that are coming to the market we have their breaking point in the form of stop losses which is going to go typically clustered below that localized low. So, the banks don't participate, meaning this turns into a little bit of a Ponzi scheme. The last trader to buy is holding the bag and it just collapses all the way down into this stop-loss area. That's what the banks are interested in to start their roundtrip process because now the market is opening up. The time frames are all getting higher uh which are being engaged and they buy in this pain zone
9:13 down here because it gives them the liquidity they need to open up their trade. Now, how are they going to get out? How are they going to complete their roundtrip process? Well, as this market goes down, you have new traders that are now chasing it to the downside. It's predictable because now they think, well, if it's not going up, it must be going down. These new traders, all their stop losses are now clustered above this high. So, the banks buy into the pain of these traders, and then they sell into the pain of those traders down there. This is what the banks need to make sure they have a successful and profitable roundtrip process. They need the time frames to start opening up because it gives them time to do this process. Also
10:00 gives them a much better prospect of the market moving and making bigger profit. But they also need that guaranteed liquidity and that is how this is all manufactured. So now you know the difference between the retail traders patternoriented roundtrip process versus the market makers or the banks mechanically driven roundtrip process that needs to be in place so that they could actually be successful. We want to follow them before we get into any trades. Okay, so some of you just watched me draw out your last 6 months of trading experience. And believe me, I know how it feels because that's where I came from. I wish I knew this stuff way back when I first started. Every trader has been there, and that's not a character flaw. That's just what happens when you don't understand the roundtrip
10:45 structure underneath the move. But here's why it keeps repeating. And this is important. When you're trying to trade a trend and a pullback comes and then now your position's underwater, you feel pain, immediate pain. And pain demands action. Your brain just wants it to stop. So, you close the trade. Round trip complete. But it was the wrong time to close. Meanwhile, the higher time frame player on the other side of that trade, he doesn't feel your pullback. His round trip is on a completely different clock. He doesn't react. So his liquidity stays locked. So the trend stays intact and you just gave up your seat for nothing. Now flip it. The trend's been running. You're in profit. You're feeling good. Pleasure state. And pleasure makes you passive. You stop managing the trade. You stop paying attention. Then the higher time frame roundtrip actually completes. The big
11:31 money closes their positions and the reversal hits you like a freight train. Pain makes you act when you shouldn't. Pleasure makes you sit when you should act. And the roundtrip mechanics exploit both of those responses every single time. So the real question becomes, how do you actually look at a chart and know whether the higher time frame roundtrip is still in progress or about to complete? Because that distinction right there is the whole game. All right. So everything up to this point, the speed of money flow, the retail round trip, the bank's round trip, the psychology, that's all the engine. That's the inner workings. Now, let me show you what this actually looks like on a chart. All right, so let's break this down on a live chart so you can understand exactly how this all plays out. So, we have this nice move that's formed right here on
12:17 the 4hour chart. But why did this happen? Because previously, we were in a nice uptrend. Well, if we look at the weekly chart over here, you could see that the destination on the weekly chart was ultimately to the liquidity based off this swing high back here. So, the market came up, ran aggressively through that, and then backed off. That's because at that point the weekly traders in mass were no longer committed to the pattern. They didn't think it was going up anymore. So that's why they decided to sell and therefore we lost the support of the weekly traders in this trend. So when we had this 4hour rally right here, this failed because the weekly traders were no longer involved. So as the market came down and started
13:04 to uh pick up speed, we could see that every single 4hour rally kept failing and failing and failing and that is because the weekly was no longer participating. In fact, the weekly started to then join the downtrend and that's what really fueled these bigger moves to the downside. Okay, so here's the sequence. Let me walk you through them real quick. Step one, you need to know where the major structural levels are on the higher time frames above yours. Those levels are where round trips complete. When the weekly drives into major resistance, you watch what happens. If the weekly holders close their positions at that level, that selling volume cascades through every time frame below it. Remember, you're not predicting a reversal. You are watching for one to start unfolding. Big difference. Step number two, the
13:49 inefficiency confirms it's real. Not every touch of a major level leads to a full reversal. Sometimes the higher time frame players are only partially closing. the inefficiency, that strong move away from the level, that's what tells you the round trip is actually completing and the new trend is forming. Step number three, and this is where it all comes together. Once that new trend forms, the higher time frames, new roundtrip is now stabilizing it. Their capital is locked in the new direction, which means every pullback against the new trend on the lower time frame is going to be temporary. Every single one of those pullbacks is an entry opportunity for you because you know the volume needed to reverse it isn't there. It's locked up. All right, before we wrap up, one takeaway. If you forget everything else from this lesson,
14:35 remember this. A trend will not end on any given time frame until the even higher time frames complete their round trip in mass. That one sentence answers the two questions that keep every trader up at night. Is this pullback going to reverse on me? Question is, is the higher time frame round trip still in progress? Then the pullback is temporary. Stay in. The other question is, is this trend about to end? Well, are you seeing a reaction at a major level with a confirming inefficiency? Then yes, the reversal is real. Get out of the way and get ready to trade the other direction. No signal service tells you this. The answer is sitting right there on the higher time frame chart. And now you know how to read it. I really wish someone would have showed me this 14 years ago when I first started because it would have saved me a lot of pain and a lot of money and more importantly a lot of wasted time staring
15:22 at screens trying to figure things out. The good news is that doesn't have to be you. That's what understanding the roundtrip does for you. It replaces confusion with clarity. Thanks for watching. If this helped you, hit the like button, subscribe so you don't miss the rest of this master class. And if you want to learn more about what we do at Trade ATS, check out the links in the description. We'll see you on the next lesson.
