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0:00 For the average person listening right now, Dave, who drives a taxi, or Jenny, who works as a receptionist, or Clive, who is a nurse, what is the most important thing we haven't talked about that we should have talked about as it pertains to their life today? >> I think they have to brace themselves for tougher times ahead than they would have expected. And they're beginning to get the point. Life for the last 10 or 20 years has been tougher than than they perhaps expected as children or or than other people expected for them. Part of that is politics. Part of that is equality. But the net effect to them is times are tougher. It is more difficult to buy a house or afford to
0:47 rent. And and jobs are getting scarcer. It's likely to get worse. >> What does brace yourself mean for them? Cuz brace yourself sounds like you But does it mean >> Plan your life as if times will not be easy. >> Okay. >> do not build up a little reserve of of cash. Of course, my advice to other people is and and get yourself a useful job. Something that will, in a larger sense, pull your weight in society. >> Upskill, change skills, learn something. >> Mechanical. Fixing repairing. >> Things that >> Engineering. >> Things that will need humans. >> And and research. Science in general. >> Make friends.
1:34 Make sure you're living in in a a tight society if you can. Very difficult today obviously. >> Would you be thinking about the country you live in at this moment in time? >> Absolutely. >> Really? Is there any countries you wouldn't live in if you were David or Jenny? >> I I think I have to refuse to answer this on the grounds that it might tend to incriminate me. Um >> Oh, okay. So, you're saying don't live in the United States? >> Well, I have American children and grandchildren. >> Why not the United States? >> It holds out too much chance that the social contract is is dissolving. You know, the thing about Japan and that my joking rule 21 in investing is never extrapolate from the Japanese. They are extremely different in every way. But one of the ways they're different is
2:20 they have this amazing social contract. The thing that really upsets the Japanese is if they're put in a position where they can't act in a socially responsible way. >> When you say social contract, what does that mean? >> It means an agreement that I will behave in a way that helps my neighbors and the society. That I'm doing what people expect me to do. I'm not going to misbehave. >> And you think that's not the case here in the United States? >> I think the case here is that people are doing what they think is best for them and their family and screw everybody else really. When I arrived in America, corporations had this sense that they owed something to the community they operated in. The city they operated in. They they build the stadium. They do this. They they'd be part of the community.
3:06 Now they're not. They're all in a way cold-blooded, profit-maximizing international enterprises. >> And why is that a bad place to live? Cuz you're saying, you know, you probably wouldn't recommend Dave or Jenny living in the United States. Why would that be a bad place for them to be? What happens? What's the What's the downstream impact of that? >> That your neighbors are aren't as interested in you and your well-being. >> Fine. I don't I won't talk to my neighbor. >> And that's a lonely place to be. And when you're in trouble, you're in serious trouble. Uh because the safety net here is very ineffective. There's a a measure that I think is probably the single most important measure of civilization, and that is maternal mortality. How many people die in childbirth? You know, in
3:51 Nigeria out of 100,000 it's 480, give or take. And uh in America in in the black population it's uh 44. In the whole population it's like 21 or 20. Curiously in the American Asian population, it's 13. And then you go down the list. In in Britain, it's five. In Germany, it's four. In Sweden, it's 2.1. In Norway, it's zero. There were no mothers who died last year. >> Hm. >> Or the year before. What better definition of civilization than looking after the mothers giving
4:36 birth? How is it possible that a country more or less the richest in the world it's not just that they're the worst in the rich world. It's that they are 50% worse than the next worst. 50% more mothers die here than in the second worst country in the developed world. How is that possible? The answer is it happens. And um it's because the inequality is so extreme in the medical system that if you don't have lots of money, you're quite likely to die in childbirth. I mean Now, of course the numbers are not huge. 20 out of 100,000 is not uh but it's but it's a terrible contrast. >> It's a sign of something.
5:23 It's a sign of something else, isn't it? >> It's a sign of whether people are it's a sign of the social contract. >> So, where's a good place to live then, if not here? >> Denmark, Japan. Uh even France, Germany. The UK has a little bit of the American disease, but not nearly as much. >> So, if your kids came to you and said, "Dad, we're thinking of uh leaving the United States. Should I move? Should I Should I move out of the United States? >> Yeah, I I would say that's a perfectly reasonable thing to consider. And where are you going and why and what's your >> I'm thinking of going to Denmark, Dad. >> Well, if they'll have you, uh No uh in the things that really matter, life expectancy health
6:09 safety nets, uh murder rates, uh mortality rates, in everything that really matters, yes, they're they're day and night better. In the things that don't really matter but look really splashy, we have enormous quantities of uh wealth created that go to a relatively small fraction of the people. And that dazzles in terms of the average because um that's how the numbers work. If you look at how well off the bottom quartile are, America doesn't score well at all. >> Jeremy, we have a closing tradition where the last guest leaves a question for the next guest not knowing who they're leaving it for. The question left for you is, if you could not fail,
6:54 what would your next goal be that you would set for yourself? >> There There was a book written in the 1960s called Silent Spring. Carl Carson, I think her name was. And it changed for a quite a number of years it it did what books never do really. It it became a political monster and everyone studied it and it had an effect. It changed the game. I would like to write something about uh toxicity and and social contract really. Particularly nurturing a family. We We've got to find in the end a community that encourages children. The downside of the brutally efficient capitalist
7:41 system that we have. It's focus on financial achievement and so on. And very little emphasis on community and child-rearing and so on. If we don't we we fail as a society pretty quickly. We have to detoxify. We have to encourage to create an environment where people want to have children. If I could write a book that would be would would pull a silent spring, I would sit down tomorrow and start it. >> The making of a Parma bear. >> Parma should be in inverted commas, really. >> The perils of long-term investing in a short-term world. By Jeremy Grantham and Edward
8:26 Chancellor. Who is this book for? >> Oh, people who have a interest in the stock market. It has a little bit of climate change and toxicity. My My co-rider is a professional and he tried to limit me, quite sensibly. Feeling that our main market was investors who would be turned off by too much of the stuff we've been talking about. >> [snorts] >> And you cover things also like economics, value investing, being a bear, and predicting a bubble, and what to do about all of those things. But it's really a useful counter-intuitive Not counter-intuitive, but it's a it's a frame of thinking that will help you be more realistic, especially when psychology is prone to take over and make you wildly, recklessly optimistic. >> And and be more confident in your judgment.
9:11 Big Big companies cannot advise you. It's just suicidal for their business. So you are on your own. Look at the data. A bubble is not hard to see. There's this kind of plane and then there's a Himalayan peak which eventually goes back. >> And I mean that's exactly what we're seeing. >> That's exactly what history looks like. Have the courage to look at that, make your own conclusion, get out of the dangerous most dangerous part, and and do it now. Don't wait for help because no help is coming. Large enterprises almost never get the big turning points because they can't take the career risk involved.
9:56 And every big corporation needs a leader who has political skills. And the And the central political skill in life turns out to be never be wrong on your own. This is again Keynes. You know, you can be wrong in company, you can jump off the cliff together, you will never lose your job because of that. But if you do anything on your own, sooner or later you will get it wrong. And quote, you will not receive much mercy. >> If you love the Diary of a CEO brand and you watch this channel, please do me a huge favor, become part of the 15% of the viewers on this channel that have hit the subscribe button. It helps us tremendously and the bigger the channel gets, the bigger the guests.
