0:00 The Fed is about to cut the rates today, September 17th, 2025, and everyone is asking the same question. Are rate cuts bearish? Because judging by last year's rate cuts, they were not bearish at all. Now, we about to print something like this on the US interest rates uh chart. And is Bitcoin about to do something like this and mark the top of this cycle? So, in today's video, we're going to talk about this scenario in the first part. And in the second part, we're going to look at some altcoin charts and the potential global event that may be coming next year and how I'm betting on it because this is the market. In the market, we come together, we hold our hands, but in the end, we are looking to make money. This is the actual game you want to play if you enter the markets.
0:47 Now, let's first talk about the Bitcoin cycle and how to spot a cycle bottom or a cycle top. This is my post from uh December 2022 and I said this. Normally the bottom in crypto came in the November, December, January range and in theory we have something like 40 days left to see something below 156 on the Bitcoin chart. But the macro suggests otherwise meaning that I was thinking that the bottom was already in. But I was asking the people and you can see here how the results look. The majority of people said that this time is different. meaning that we should head to new lows into 2023. This is what I had to deal with all of 2023, all of 2024. And still people are bearish looking at this chart. So basically on
1:34 the 31st of January 2023, I said Bitcoin's bottom zone was 15 to 16,000. Congrats on the accumulation if you did it for yourself. I certainly did it for myself. You can't even imagine the rage in the comments. This was actually in my native language. I am Romanian. Nobody's perfect. But this is how in my opinion, in my opinion alone, this is how you call a cycle bottom or when the time comes, a cycle top. Now, people want to look at this Fed cuts the rates. Do you remember how the Fed cutting cycle looked for Bitcoin here back in 2020? Because they only look just one cycle before. or they put on something like uh do you remember how 2021 looked like
2:20 this looks like the same heading into a leading diagonal and this will mark the top but you will never know. So if I want to call the top I'm doing the same exact thing I want to see in January something like uh 20 between January 20 and the end of March. This is what I want to see starting with January if Bitcoin topped and I'm not putting a price on it. It could be this one. It could be 160. It could be 2025. You will never know unless it already happened. And why am I looking at this uh seasonality window? Let's open some brackets here shortly. It's because of the Bitcoin seasonality. And I have a clip on this channel. Bitcoin seasonality explained. You really need to see this because that is an important
3:06 window to look for on how price will act to call something in the future. The top or the bottom. That is it. No price predictions. No, look at the RSI, bro. Look at the MACD. They heading down because all people look just one cycle before to make predictions about this one. So, basically, I'm not calling cycle tops until we are in something like December or January. And price will tell us the truth when the time comes, just like I did it back in January 2023. And now with the Fed rate cuts leaving the cycle talk behind. Again, if you remember our recession in the real recession indicators, not the SAM rule, not the unemployment, not even the yield curve inversion. We are looking at something more important that we already
3:51 talked about in the last clip. Recession indicator sending its last signal. So in my opinion, when the 3mon started to break down from this area right here, we are already in a recession. that would be announced something like next year June maybe July but most people don't understand how we enter a recession now losing this is not the end of the world being here at the FOMC in my opinion we should see a normalization cut which if you ask me back here it was not on my bingo card to be honest but in the market we don't predict we adapt so basically if this cuts happened because the US 3 month had dropped also this is the leading the US 10 month. This was the leader from April 2024 into the end
4:38 of August. This signaled combined with this one that we would have our first cut now because this one dropped again. It stopped here and the 3mon got to its next level. Remember the delta talk between the yield and also the rates right here. We should have a 25 basis point cut. But these cuts are not bearish. Maybe we do something like this and continue down and maybe in November we have another cut. If we have two to three cuts into normalization, steady drops on the US 3 month and not a cascading event. This would mean panic cuts and these are the most bearish. Meaning that if we go into history, it's basically the last cuts and then the stop. So the last cuts are the most bearish, meaning the cuts that take us to the bottom of the rate cutting cycle.
5:25 And again, my rate cutting cycle bottom is due in something like April. So that's why in my opinion I want to see how January starts and is price at a new high or at another low to judge how this window of opportunity will look. My base case remains that we finish the cycle in January and we start dropping into this area of support that should be tapped. But things could change and we could do something like this and we actually see the summer into Q4 of 2026. That could be the last drop in the markets. We should see later in life which scenario applies but I want to take this slowly month by month while the price validates or invalidates some of the seasonality. Now leaving all this uh rate cut cycle
6:12 on the side we clearly have no confirmation that this bull market is over for Bitcoin whatsoever. I remember people calling tops here also here here again here again here here and now they are calling complacency and we go to a new bare market because of reasons no factual data just PTSD from past cycles that I guess people can't really shook off and my next target area for Bitcoin is and remains this one and I've been talking about it also on this YouTube channel since we were in April like this I expected it to come earlier but again I'm not rushing anywhere the only thing I'm interested interested in is seeing how the price looks like in December into January this time window. And for the talk of the old coin charts, where
6:57 is the Bitcoin dominance, which in my opinion should be in this time window between December into January at the local bottom, which is this area right here, just above the 40%. Only time will tell, and I will adapt my thesis if something changes. If we are to prolong this bull market into 2026, which I'm not a fan of, it is very easy for me just to stay long spot, just continue to ride the bull and I'm not selling anything too early. Continuing the bull market into 2026, 2027 is the easiest thing you can do for yourself and your bags. That is the easiest scenario on the table right now because no big drawback means just stay in spot and watch how your bags pump into infinity, not doing anything. just become richer every day and that is it. But if my
7:44 scenario is validated and we got something like this, the old coin charts would look something like this. Almost everything is pumping and by the time you get here the euphoria, the real euphoria is already starting. People don't get this very often, but this is not euphoria. Euphoria starts after tops are put in. always was, always will be the case because most people are interested when prices are very very high because they mean trust. Just imagine something like chaining being over $100. What would people say here about chaining? It's going to a thousand bro because it is working with the swift network with trapfy. It embarks a lot of institutional clients which have trillions of dollars to invest. Of
8:31 course, from here it's going to $1,000. No, that's the top. That's euphoria. That is the stupid brain in people's head speaking and zero rationale. So basically this is my validation that almost all coins are topping right here and people would actually scream that this should happen next. Well, if a new low is due on the Bitcoin dominance chart, in my opinion, it should come in this window that we already marked on the chart from December to January, maybe maybe just maybe the start of February. It doesn't matter what ticker you are interested in. Maybe it's say, maybe it's VO, maybe it's chaining, maybe it's E-old, maybe it's Alchemy Pay. It really doesn't matter what chart we are looking at. All that matters is
9:17 when we get here, what price are you looking at? And are you willing to sell almost all of it? No matter the price, because only here you would know how you chose the old coins. But in my opinion here almost all of them will be higher than where they are today. So putting on the uh US interest rates uh chart again it seems like these normalization cuts are the same exact thing that this year and I would start to worry for the last one to two cuts. The last cuts of the rate cutting cycle from the Fed are the most bearish ones. And if we want to do some math on the delta rates below 3% something like uh 250 let's say would mean that the US 3 month should be something like 2%. So this is the area
10:05 where I would start to let's say feel in trouble. So basically until then if this continues slower into the year end and we cut 25 basis points maybe a 50 cut basis points and another 25 basis points and we are here something like uh January. Let's see how the schedule for the FOMC's look like. September 17th, this is today, October 29, December 10. In my opinion, if we have three rate cuts and we go something like 25 basis points and then a 50 basis points, where does this take us? We are now at 450 minus 25 and minus 50 leaves us at 375. And another 25 basis point cut means something like 350. If this happens by
10:50 December, December 10th and we are at 350, I would really start to worry from here on. And why is that? Because of my own theory that the rates will never go to zero again. And the Fed cutting cycle is not going further in my opinion alone with my own studies on Fed rates and Fed cutting cycles. The bottom should be in by April, maybe May at the last. So basically from December into that window again I don't think we go to zero again and in my opinion we should stop something like between 1 and 3%. Meaning that the last cuts of this cycle are the most bearish and should stop in this area right here. And I've explained this since 2023. Fed interest rates might not get back to zero ever. And I've
11:35 explained why because we are in an inflation cycle. And this is how I imagined the rates and should go higher lows, higher highs, higher lows, higher highs until the peaking which in my opinion is something like 2033 to 2035 just like the last cycles and inflation going up after 2026. So you can see on this chart that nothing is really different from 2023 when I've explained it and I still remain on my base case that this should be the area that the rates should bottom. Maybe 1% maybe 1.5 maybe 2% I don't know we will see but getting from 350 into the 2% area means that we need to cut something like 50 basis points and another panic cut of
12:21 100 basis point. meaning that this could be the last two cuts getting here and the market tanking along with it. We will truly know when we get into that December to January time frame and from there on we should see how the prices look like starting with Bitcoin and the S&P where is the Bitcoin dominance etc. And this again in my opinion comes with a brutal global event that I was talking about since 2022 and this is from uh November 19th 2022. I was talking about this crisis that led again to the Fed balance sheet expansion. You can see here that from 2022 I was expecting that the Fed balance sheet should go lower. Just waiting and waiting for the next crisis to expand again. And my bias on
13:06 this one because it's all speculation. But if you remember April and May with the energy outage back in Spain and a little bit of France and also some isolated places in Bali, also in the US, my guess is that back in April and May, they were only testing to see how this energy crisis would get the last trigger rate cuts, panic rate cuts, actually markets tanking, Fed balance sheet expansion, a lot of new printing, a lot more than the sanitary crisis, which was the COVID time. This is the Fed balance sheet since 2022 when I posted that. And again, we are not here just to make presumptions in the market. We are here to make money. Let's hear some thoughts of mine happening now going into ours. If I am right about this huge printing,
13:51 maybe some subsidizing of the energy market, some massive speculation while we have another global event next year that we spoken about and the actual target is the energy sector and in the end game the massive printing and the last narrative they use is this one. If I'm right about this, I want to place a bet in the market. So let's think some scenarios. we have a global storm that could start to unfold something like uh April to May if some of these companies because I'm guessing there are more and you can also mention them in the discord channel talk about more of this uh theory if this one or other companies like this starts to rip up into that global event then the thesis was pretty clear and so this was
14:37 actually a bet of mine because if an energy crisis was on the table just like in the pandemic a lot of new companies, a lot of speculative assets like for example fuel cell energy company went from that $4 area that I was explaining in this uh market update for the members. You can see here we are doing updates something like 3 to five every month looking to see where we are in the cycle and also finding some gems maybe. This already did something like a 2x inside of one week timing window. This is my last bet in the markets because if I'm right and there is to be an energy crisis next year, charts like this actually do something extraordinary. Let's look at what this one did in the pandemic. You can see here it was a one,
15:22 a two, a three, a four. This was actually the COVID lows. So, this one made the wave four into the COVID lows and then ripping up again bringing a total of 20,000% gains. Yep. is very speculative because uh back in the 2000s this company was worth $200,000 a share. Yeah, you heard it right. And I bought it at $4. So if you want to join the members, go to my YouTube channel. You can see here the game of liquidity.com. Click on it. See the website presentation, see what you get because you are not getting a course. You are getting market updates and some potential charts that can increase our net worth and also how to position in the altcoin market. and also how to prepare for next year if this is the
16:10 case and again I'm making this case for three years now and in my opinion nothing is changed so if you want to join the members please do and if not just stay subscribed to the channel binge watch in my opinion all these clips because there are not a lot of them you can see here only 16 videos you can binge watch them something like two and a half hours and you will get the full picture of how I view the cycle and how I position to make money and from 2022 too. Really, my life has changed because I made a plan. I studied hard the secular cycles and I positioned in the right way until today. And of course, I'm looking to do the same from next year on. That's it for today, guys. See you in the next one. Have a great week. What?
