0:00 How does Bitcoin and the entire crypto space behave in every Q4? Well, first we need to start with Bitcoin. It's been a while since I did the the last clip on YouTube while everyone was bearish on the Bitcoin price because the rate cuts were coming in. But actually, the only rate cuts that are bearish are the last two. So, if you don't remember our discussion about when the cuts should happen and what kind of cuts we have on the table, you should go subscribe to my channel and watch all the clips because I've explained which are the real recession indicators. watching the US three month and also the US 10year meaning the yields because the Fed does what the bond market is telling them. Now we do not want to diverge from this uh topic right now. We're going to remove the rates and we're going to talk about how every account on Twitter and
0:46 also YouTube saw this August scandal and thought to themselves that this is exactly what happened in 2021. Boom, first top, boom, second top and then rejection and bare market. But what they discounted was the fact that we have 1 2 3 4 5 and this is the sixth monthly candle closure above these closes right here. And in 2021 we had rejections. We closed once and the second one was a rejection back into the 55k and then the bare market started. So basically the structure is entirely different. Not to mention the psychology because the market makers never deal the same hand twice in a row one cycle later. This and also the fact that the Bitcoin dominance chart is looking like this. Without a
1:32 major drop in the dominance chart, the cycle is not over and Bitcoin has not stopped yet. So basically starting with uh October, we are entering Q4 and the Q4 in crypto. Besides the bare market ears, which this one is not, in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin and crypto behave mega bullish. Now, going into the low time frame, you can see that here we are in a major resistance area. But applying some RSI, I also posted uh this on Twitter. The 8h hour RSI just began the climb into the overbought area, which is the start of bullishness. When this happens, this is just not smashing down after the first touch. You can see here this one was a clean rejection. This another one bearish divergence going down. But here when we got in, you
2:18 can see major candles developing and Bitcoin went from 111 into 123. Similarly, from uh April into May. We've talked about this also here on a YouTube clip back then. We were exactly here and I was calling for something like a wave two because this was getting very stretched and this was clearly a vertical accumulation giving no real dip to enter whatsoever. And you can see how the 8hour RSI behaved. Entered here aggressively into the 78 area going down while price is going up. This is a hidden bullish divergence spiking up again. You can see it here going down, vertical accumulation, another spike up. And this was a rejection which we do not have right now. Maybe going into the
3:03 4our. You can see here that when the next spike is returning, the price should be higher than this. Maybe we'll see a new alltime high. But in my opinion, October into the end of October, we should continue to trend up and maybe we'll have some uh major pullback into the start of November. maybe looking something like this and down again and we will see from here into December depends on where we are with the price but again for me because I have only 40% of my Bitcoin left I will sell at whatever price the market gives me this is my next major target which Bitcoin should visit but 60% I'm allocated into all coins looking out for the Bitcoin dominance to get my targets into the 40s area something like here 43% 44 maybe lower into 41 this is the
3:51 exact same exercise that I uh applied when I got only into Bitcoin right here targeting the Fibonacci area between the 618 and the 786 whenever it came you can see that it came this year. So basically in this entire topping area for the Bitcoin dominance if you don't follow the noise on Twitter or maybe other big YouTube channels this exact area should have been the area where you got maybe your last good entries on alts. And on this channel, I presented the charts of uh CVX, the CRV, the IORA chart, and also Algorand, maybe Litecoin. But just remember that in my opinion, when we get into this area, at most by the end of January, if this area is touched, it is already time to be out something like 80% of the market or at least that is my
4:37 plan. And because in this market, it doesn't matter if you are right all the time. You can be wrong half the time, but the only thing that matters is the positioning. And for me, this is not enough. Not meaning that I'm not satisfied with how much money I made in this case. It's just that I want to be ready for the next season. And what I'm seeing on all these charts, because if you don't know my theory for all coins this season, this is the clip for it. Half coin season, crypto investors will be disappointed in 2025. Go watch this one and you will understand why I'm saying this. But if I'm right with this and maybe something like DOT or Eagle or Filecoin or CVX or CRV or Algorand or maybe IOTA, they have this altcoin season meaning something like 5 to 10x. I am very good with those gains. Then the next season will be a full-blown
5:24 altcoin season mostly for the projects that had a halfway season this season. Let me explain what I mean. So again, if you want to know my theory for this season, go watch this exact clip and maybe binge watch all the clips because they're not a lot. Something like two and a half hours binge watch in total. But again, let me explain why I'm thinking about this this way. A very unpopular opinion because all of the internet is saying that the crypto space has died. And this is my take. Nothing died. It takes longer to play out. As always, crypto people only look inside crypto and do not study the human mind share cycles. This says that the 2021 was a bull cycle for collectibles. Also meaning that memes, NFTs, gaming coins, virtual land, ICOs, all of them were in
6:10 a euphoria, a full-blown euphoria back in 2021. And this chart agrees with me. This is the total collectible chart. And you can see here we had a full-blown mometic season in 2021, which was also a schmita year, and we are here now. This looks like a big accumulation area that has no time to finish by 2026. And in my opinion, we're going to continue to bleed some more. But into 2028, 2029, which is the next Schmita cycle, exactly like 2021. In my opinion, we will mark another hysteria on human mind share trading, virtual rocks, and other debt mecoins. So basically 2025 is actually the cycle cleansing, which matches my theory about the halfcoin season. So basically what survives now and retraces back to the 618 into the 786 Fibonacci
6:58 retracement goes to a monster alcoin season into 2028. And this structure right here if you observe it this looks or it could look like a rounding bottom which could look something like this back to means and then continuing into new alltime highs into the next schmita cycle. That's why I have this uh halfcoin season theory. You can see here something like this, something like XRP did the back in 2021. And also Litecoin, even though it did the shallow new alltime high, you can see here that this was the major area that we rejected from and got to the bare market. Same exact thing with the XRP chart. And now look where the XRP is. So basically the XRP, the IOTA, the LTC chart, they had no reason to make new all-time highs back in 2021 because that was a schmita year
7:44 and the mimemetic human mind share cycle. Now it is not and I guess in my opinion we should see new alltime highs and then into 2026 the next bare market which is why I'm leaning into this theory for now. Also the CRV chart maybe it does something like this returns to means then continue up into the next shmita cycle or maybe some of them by the time the Bitcoin dominance should uh bottom maybe some of them do something like this but I want to bet on the plan that doesn't keep me a bag holder for the next two to three years. So basically if we are here into January and the bitcoin dominance looks like this like bottoming out and the price rejects from here then I can say for sure that we are returning to means and in 2026 I will look to allocate again going into the next schmita cycle. So basically if I'm right about this one we
8:30 will see January 2026 prices then I have to assume that the next one will also be valid which means I am more excited for 2028 and in 2026 I will look to deploy a monster cash position which I am working on right now selling while we go higher and higher because I guess if this happens then people will call this the real death of crypto. Imagine seeing something like this going back to means. Ah, so this failed. Nothing left to do. Better go trade stocks and then this one happens into the next meta cycle. But these are clips for next year. For now, I'm just positioned. I'm heavily positioned into altcoins this year and I'm awaiting to see when we get here because on this road, my cash position will grow steadily. Selling, selling,
9:16 selling, selling. There's no such thing as just wait for this to happen because we can stop at 47%. And when we are here, whichever target is reached on the Bitcoin dominance, you should have already started the exits slowly steady just like you would accumulate and DCA in. You do the same going out. So that's it for today guys. If you want to understand my whole view and how I position in the market, just go binge watch all the clips in my channel because there are not a lot and I don't do them often. And if you want to have more deep dives, check out the game of liquidity.com. I do weekly market updates for the members and also we have a discord channel. We talk extensively on charts, also old coin charts, some stocks play, updating more often than here. Have a great weekend. See you next time.
