Can Vijay Deliver a Real-Life Hit? | How Tamil Nadu’s Political Script Was Flipped! | Akash Banerjee

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简要总结

本视频总结了泰米尔纳德邦选举后发生的政治事件,重点介绍了演员维杰(Vijay)领导的TVK党派的崛起及其面临的挑战。关键点包括:

  • TVK在选举中取得重大胜利,打破了DMK和AIADMK的长期垄断。
  • 维杰成功通过信任投票,但面临来自反对派和联盟内部的挑战。
  • 维杰的政治崛起并非偶然,而是通过电影和粉丝俱乐部长期铺垫的结果。
  • TVK承诺的福利政策可能给泰米尔纳德邦的财政带来巨大压力。

泰米尔纳德邦选举后的政治大戏

泰米尔纳德邦选举结果揭晓后,政治局势如同电影般跌宕起伏。维杰在宣誓就职前多次拜访总督,并争取到五个政党的支持,最终跨越了118席的多数门槛。尽管成功宣誓就职,但维杰能否通过信任投票成为公众关注的焦点。

信任投票的戏剧性转折

在信任投票中,TVK以144票获胜,证明了其多数地位。然而,这次胜利并非表面上那么简单。DMK议员在投票前集体退场,使得多数席位降至88席。PMK和BJP的议员也选择弃权,保持中立,这在一定程度上帮助了维杰。AIADMK党分裂成两派,一派支持现任领导人EPS,反对维杰政府,另一派则由C.V. Shanmugam领导,支持维杰。

维杰面临的挑战

维杰虽然通过了信任投票,但他的政治道路并非一帆风顺。DMK质疑他在真实政治中的能力,认为这与电影不同。维杰能否像统治票房一样统治政府,或者Dravidian政党和DMK是否会卷土重来,这些都是未知数。了解维杰的背景,可以帮助理解他所面临的挑战。

TVK的崛起之路

2026年5月4日,TVK在泰米尔纳德邦选举中成为最大党派,赢得了234个席位中的108个,终结了DMK和AIADMK长达50年的垄断。DMK的席位从159个锐减至59个,遭遇了20年来最糟糕的选举表现,前首席部长斯大林也未能保住席位。AIADMK也仅获得47个席位,面临分裂。维杰上任后,宣布关闭学校和宗教场所附近的750多家酒类商店,并为用电量低于500单位的家庭提供200单位的免费电力。

组建政府的政治博弈

由于没有获得绝对多数,TVK需要118个席位才能组建政府,但只赢得了107个席位。TVK向国大党寻求支持,国大党迅速与DMK决裂,转而支持TVK。DMK对此表示强烈不满。尽管如此,维杰仍然未能达到多数席位,总督要求他提供足够的支持文件。为了获得更多席位,维杰与CPI、CPM、VCK和IUML等党派进行谈判。AMMK指责维杰伪造文件,但最终TVK还是获得了一个席位。

联盟政治的复杂性

TVK需要118个席位才能获得多数,因此他得到了五个政党的支持,这些政党有着不同的意识形态。许多人猜测维杰无法独立做出决定。然而,在信任投票中,TVK获得了144票的多数,其中包括AIADMK的一个派别。AIADMK的叛乱议员指责EPS只为自己着想,没有与任何人协商就做出决定。EPS呼吁议员团结起来,不要支持TVK,但为时已晚。

维杰的政治信仰与行动

据报道,维杰非常相信占星术,因此急于组建政府。他在上任第三天任命他的私人占星师为首席部长办公室的特别助理,这遭到了反对派和盟友的强烈反对。在赢得信任投票后,维杰取消了对其占星师的任命。维杰在两年前成立了他的政党,并击败了有着几十年历史的政党。

维杰的长期铺垫

维杰的政治崛起并非偶然,而是经过了长达20年的铺垫。在2000年代,他开始扮演反对不公正的愤怒青年。2009年左右,维杰开始重组他的粉丝俱乐部,成立了维杰人民运动(VMI)。这个网络不仅是粉丝的聚集地,还在社区中提供救济和教育支持。2011年,维杰公开支持AIADMK,以测试粉丝俱乐部转化为选票的能力。VMI动员了大约50个选区的人支持AIADMK,最终该党赢得了43个席位。

从电影到政治

2012年后,维杰电影中的反派不再是单一的恶棍,而是一个完整的系统。在电影中,他开始讨论农民的问题,质疑医疗系统和GST。他还访问了2018年Sterlite抗议活动中被警察枪杀的13名遇难者家属,并向每个家庭提供了10万卢比的援助。这些行动并非巧合,而是一个精心策划的故事。

家庭纠纷与政治独立

维杰的父亲S.A. Chandrasekhar一直希望他的儿子进入政界。2020年,他在未经维杰允许的情况下,试图将VMI变成一个正式的政党,并自任总书记,任命维杰的母亲为财务主管。这一举动引发了家庭纠纷。维杰起诉了他的父母和其他11人,声明他的名字、照片和粉丝俱乐部不得用于任何政治目的。

抓住机遇,进军政坛

VMI于2020年9月解散。然而,维杰的粉丝俱乐部继续悄悄运作。一年后,他获得了使用VMI名称和旗帜的许可。这些粉丝独立参加了地方机构选举,并在169个席位中赢得了115个席位。维杰一直在等待泰米尔纳德邦政坛出现权力真空,AIADMK在Jayalalithaa去世后解体,EPS和OPS之间的争斗进一步削弱了该党。

利用民意,挑战传统

维杰看到了民众对腐败的反感,并利用了这种情绪。BJP也增加了其在泰米尔纳德邦的选票份额,达到了11%。泰米尔纳德邦人民希望有一个纯粹的泰米尔人替代Dravidian政治。2024年2月2日,维杰正式宣布成立TVK。2024年10月,TVK举行了第一次大型政治会议,有超过80万人参加。

TVK的挑战与承诺

在选举前,发生了一起事件,引发了对TVK生存的质疑。2025年9月,维杰组织了一次大型集会,人群拥挤导致40人死亡,125人受伤。维杰因此受到了各方攻击。一个月后,维杰慰问了遇难者家属,并提供了经济援助。维杰的演讲简短但有影响力,他向选民发出了情感呼吁。

青年选民的支持

维杰的演讲对年轻选民和妇女产生了巨大影响。泰米尔纳德邦大约42%的人口年龄在20至40岁之间,其中超过60%的选民选择了TVK。维杰在泰米尔纳德邦拥有大约85,000个粉丝俱乐部,这些俱乐部可以作为一支专门的政治力量。

与竞争对手的对比

TVK成立时,已经存在一个覆盖每个地区的粉丝俱乐部。这是Rajinikanth和Kamal Haasan所不具备的。Rajinikanth在2017年和2021年试图成立自己的政党,但未能成功。Kamal Haasan在2018年成立了他的政党,但由于缺乏基础工作,他的政党未能赢得一个席位。

福利承诺与财政压力

TVK在其宣言中宣布了许多免费赠品,包括向60岁以下的女性户主每月提供2500卢比,提供250万卢比的家庭健康保险,六个免费煤气罐,200单位的免费电力,向失业毕业生每月提供4000卢比的津贴,以及为结婚的贫困妇女提供一索维林的金子和一件丝绸纱丽。

债务负担与未来展望

泰米尔纳德邦是印度最富有的邦之一。然而,即使在这里,政府的收入也很少,支出却很多。如果TVK兑现所有承诺,那么这将构成整个邦预算的三分之一。维杰在宣誓就职当天明确表示,仍有10万亿卢比的巨额贷款需要偿还。DMK在选举前没有认真对待维杰,维杰充分利用了这一点。

未来的挑战与机遇

维杰能否通过与这么多政党结盟来运行一个适当的政治体系,他是否能够使人民受益,他是否能够达到斯大林的10-11%的增长率,这些都有待观察。斯大林认为这不可能,并给出了友好的警告。维杰能否在政治上证明每个人都是错的,他能否真正成为一个能够提供社会正义和经济福利的英雄,并带领该邦前进,这些都有待观察。如果维杰成功,那么这对国家也有好处。

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0:00 Whatever is happening in Tamil Nadu after the election results is no less than a blockbuster movie. Before the oath ceremony, Vijay visits the Governor four times to persuade him. ...takes the help of five political parties to cross the magic number of 118. There is a lot of mathematics involved in this. He takes the oath but the common man has a question whether Vijay will be able to pass the floor test. Today we got to see the climax of this real life movie. And in the floor test, Thalapathy proved that he is not just a hero on the big screen. In fact, he has also emerged as a great player in politics. TVK won the floor test today with 144 MLAs They have proven their clear majority. But this victory is not as straightforward as it seems.

0:48 This floor test has turned the entire politics of Tamil Nadu upside down. Just before the voting, all the DMK MLAs walked out of the House. And because of this, the magic number of majority which was 118 automatically comes down to 88 And with this, four PMK MLAs and one BJP MLA also abstained from voting. ...neither supported anyone nor opposed anyone. ...remained neutral, which automatically brought Vijay closer to the majority. But the biggest climax of this picture came when AIADMK, the third largest party in the state It split into two parts On the one hand, 22 MLAs came in support of EPS, who is currently the head of AIADMK. Those who voted against Vijay's government

1:35 And the second faction of AIADMK is led by C.V. Shanmugam 24 MLAs come in his support and they support Vijay. Now only time will tell how much the future of AIADMK will be broken from here. In today's Deshbhakt special episode, we will try to find out That Vijay definitely passed the floor test but Why is his path already strewn with thorns? Why is DMK challenging him, that there is a huge difference between reel and real politics. Will Vijay now be able to rule the governance as he has been ruling the box office for so many years? Or will the return of the Dravidian parties and the DMK happen? If you want to understand Vijay's victory and the challenges in the coming days

2:23 To know how it sends a new message in Indian politics, you need to know Vijay's background. Why did Vijay himself put his parents in a court case? And most importantly, what were the reasons that people removed Stalin and chose Vijay's party? Can other parties in our country learn any lessons from this? Let's find out. Don't do half the work like a politician. Subscribe and press the bell icon. May 4, 2026: Two major election results emerge on this day. Bengal and Tamil Nadu. This is the first time the BJP has entered Bengal. We've created a number of episodes on it. Do check it out.. And in Tamil Nadu, Thalapathy Vijay's party emerges as the biggest party on TV.

3:10 A party that was formed just 2 years ago The same party won 108 seats out of 234 in the state. And 10 such seats where TVK lost by such a small margin, like the margin was around 1500. So in many ways they had almost full majority. The entry of TVK ended the 50-year-old DMK AIADMK Dravidian duopoly in one stroke. The DMK, which had a majority earlier, saw its government reduced from 159 seats to just 59 seats. Which was the worst performance of DMK in the last 20 years. Even former Chief Minister Stalin himself could not save his seat. He lost.

3:58 Facing the TVK storm, the other Dravidian party, the AIADMK, was also limited to just 47 seats. It seems that the party is going to split into two parts Before Vijay became Chief Minister, he had to convince the Governor that he was the right choice, with numbers. Finally, on May 10, when all the correspondence was reviewed, the Governor felt that he had no other option. Then Vijay was called and sworn in as Chief Minister Perhaps the Governor wasn't very happy. Upon assuming office, Vijay announced the closure of over 750 liquor shops Which were close to schools and religious places.

4:45 200 units of electricity were made free for those who use less than 500 units of electricity. Files of Women Safety Force and Anti Narcotics Unit were also approved. The Ministry of External Affairs was requested to use all diplomatic channels. To free 54 Tamil Nadu fishermen from Sri Lanka from jail. Then he went to the house of former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Stalin and every other political leader to meet them. But remember, this brotherhood is not going to last long in the high-voltage Tamil Nadu politics. Vijay understood the real tricks of politics while contesting the elections and immediately after winning the elections. The people of Tamil Nadu did not give absolute majority to any party in this election.

5:32 TVK needed 118 seats to form the government but it won only 107 seats. TVK knocked on the door of Congress for support. The Congress, without much delay, without thinking, without even meeting Stalin, ...broke the 10-year-old friendship with DMK in one stroke and joined hands with TVK DMK retaliated by calling out Congress betrayal ...even wrote a letter to the Speaker requesting that the Congress's seating arrangements in the Assembly be changed. So that DMK and Congress do not sit together, you can imagine how much bitterness there is in this breakup. Five Congress MLAs announced their support for Vijay, bringing the total to 113.

6:19 There were still five MLAs short to reach the halfway mark. But Vijay set out again to meet the Governor, hoping that this time the Governor might agree The Governor told Vijay, no no, you have not satisfied us There is an old tradition in our country of inviting the single largest party to form the government. But this is a new India. So Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar told Vijay First, you fulfill my demand... Show me the complete papers to see if you have the required number. Do you have the majority or not? But when BJP is the single largest party, then Governor Sahib is not visible in the House. Amidst the struggle to find 118 MLAs, news comes that Forgetting their decades-old rivalry, AIADMK and DMK are considering forming a govt together in Tamil Nadu.

7:11 If this had been said in Tamil Nadu a few years ago, you could have compared it to Congress and BJP forming the government together. By the way, Editor, it is also true that half of the BJP leaders are from Congress. DMK shot down the idea of ​​joining hands with AIADMK ...to sit in the opposition and not let their identity be tarnished Then Vijay sets out to win seats from the CPI, CPM, VCK, and IUML. But even in his third meeting with the governor, he falls short of the magic number of 118. And the Governor was unmoved. VCK and IUML initially refuse to support TVK then says that the only MLA of AMMK has joined them.

8:00 But AMMK says it is a lie. Vijay is accused of forging papers. At the same time, the video of MLA Kamaraj signing the papers is released. The AMMK party then says, this is just fraud. Then comes the denial. Then finally it expels their only party MLA from the party. But TVK gets one more vote. Obviously, there must have been a lot of transactional discussion during the negotiations that lasted so long. But this story shows that money aside, no one is with anyone forever in politics. There are no permanent ideologies. We've seen this in Bengal as well. There's an episode on Suvendu, please watch it. It's very interesting. And whether this is about BJP or Congress, everyone compromises at their own place.

8:48 As of today, Congress is with the same Vijay, who is also being supported by the VCK party. That means both Congress and VCK are allies. The VCK, formerly known as the Dalit Panthers of India, has been embroiled in controversies. For openly supporting LTTE leader Prabhakaran. The same Prabhakaran involved in the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. But today Congress is not having much problem due to this in Tamil Nadu. In his earlier election rally, Vijay had also called the DMK an evil force. And when the need arises, forming the government by joining hands with the alliance partners of the same DMK. You see the numbers, TVK needed 118 seats for majority and they had 107.

9:36 So, he has received support from five parties. There are different parties, different ideologies. And many people were speculating that Vijay would not be able to take decisions openly and independently. But in the floor test, TVK now has a huge majority of 144, including the AIADMK faction. Due to which decisions can now be taken openly and comfortably. The allegation of the rebel AIADMK MLAs is EPS was working more for himself than for the survival of the party. And he was taking decisions without consulting anyone. While Vijay was busy proving his majority, EPS was busy planning to form a government with the DMK. The other leaders did not agree to this at all.

10:21 AIADMK chief EPS is appealing to his MLAs in the assembly. ...appealing them to unite and not support TVK He will bring back the ways of Jaya Lalitha and MGR in the party. But by now it was too late to say all this. What needs to be observed now whether the rebellion-led MLAs have two-thirds majority in the party. If not, the party high command can cancel their membership under the Defection Law if it wishes. If this happens and their membership is cancelled, then Vijay's govt may again face trouble in the future. If reports are to be believed, Vijay has a strong belief in astrology and that is why he was showing haste in forming the government. Because according to their astrologer, the good date was going.

11:11 And on the third day after assuming office, he appointed his personal astrologer as OSD in the CM office. Which was strongly opposed by the opposition as well as his own allies If you love your astrologer so much then keep him on your personal payroll. Why should the govt pay him salary? The interesting thing here is that after opposition, after winning the floor test Vijay himself cancelled the appointment of his astrologer. In politics, leader admitting mistake and reverting without dragging Nehru, is commendable If you look at the news in front of the screen, Vijay formed his political party just 2 years ago. Today, he became the Chief Minister. He worked hard for two years and defeated decades-old political parties.

11:57 But if we look closely, there is not two years of hard work but two decades of hard work behind this. Vijay was a simple, soft romantic hero in the 1990s. By the 2000s, he began playing the role of an angry young man who stood up against injustice. But the fight was still very much limited to one person against another. Then around 2009, Vijay started reorganising his fan clubs. Which led to the formation of Vijay Makkal Iyakkam or Vijay's People Movement. This was a network that wasn't just about fans. These people worked in small neighborhoods to provide relief in times of need

12:42 and support people in their education. Whatever small local work was needed, people were ready to help in Vijay's name. By 2011, this network began to test its strength When Vijay openly supported AIADMK during Jayalalithaa's time. To see if a fan club, a fan following can actually be converted into votes. VMI mobilised people in around 50 constituencies in support of AIADMK. Due to which the party AIADMK won 43 seats. This collaboration resulted in VMI organising its first major political rally in Nagapattinam Where the attack on Tamil fishermen by the Sri Lankan Navy was strongly condemned.

13:32 In this event, the victim, the fisherman who was captured there by Sri Lanka. Vijay gave compensation of ₹2 lakh to their families from his own purse. The story changes after 2012. The antagonist in Vijay's films is no longer a singular villain. Rather, it's a whole system. And this probably wasn't a coincidence. In Kaithi, the problems of farmers are discussed. Questions are raised on the health system and GST in Mersal The film Sarkar also depicts electoral malpractices and the idea of ​​becoming a Chief Minister for a day. Women's sports are promoted in Bigil. Vijay also visits the families of the 13 people killed in police firing during the Sterlite protests in 2018.

14:22 ...also provides assistance of ₹1 lakh to every family. This was no coincidence, nor was it just cheap PR for a movie. Here a detailed script, a story was being written. A hero was being created and if you watch every film of his So you will find a political speech. Every action is not just an attempt to make oneself a hero on the big screen in the future Rather, this is an attempt to prove oneself as a useful in real life also. But here too, a big fight breaks out behind the scenes. Vijay's father, S.A. Chandrasekhar, a director by profession, always wanted his son to enter politics. In 2020, without Vijay's permission, he tried to make VMI an official political party.

15:13 He himself became its General Secretary and made Vijay's mother Shobha the Treasurer of this political organization. This action triggers a major family dispute. Vijay filed a law suit against his own parents as well as 11 other people. That his name, his photo, his fan clubs cannot be used in any political term. He clearly stated that he has no connection whatsoever with the VMI political party started by his father. VMI was dissolved in September 2020. However, Vijay's fan clubs continued to operate quietly. After a year, he received permission to use the VMI name and flag.

15:59 These same fans contested the local body elections independently and won 115 out of 169 seats. One thing was clear that Vijay's popularity was so high that if people were standing in his name, they were winning the elections. The question was what does Vijay do with this reading? ...always stay away from politics or enter at the right time? The timing of the hero's entry into a movie is very important. It seems Vijay has learnt this in real life too. That's why he was waiting for a power vacuum to be created in Tamil Nadu politics before making his entry. The AIADMK had disintegrated after Jayalalithaa's demise.

16:47 EPS and OPS were fighting amongst themselves, which was further weakening the party. On the other hand, the DMK felt that it would not be difficult to capture power. And power will return to them because the condition of AIADMK is very bad And Vijay took advantage of this arrogance Vijay saw that there was definitely a sentiment among the people there regarding anti-incumbency against corruption. To its credit, the BJP understood this. The BJP saw a space here. BJP also increased its vote share in Tamil Nadu to 11% Which had never happened before and was thought impossible. But the people of Tamil Nadu wanted a pure Tamilian alternative to Dravidian politics.

17:34 And TVK became the local Tamilian alternative His film G.O.A.T Greatest of All Time comes out in 2024 In one of the frames, the number plate of his car clearly read CM of Tamil Nadu. The one who understood the chronology understood what was going to happen next. Vijay officially announced TVK on 2 February 2024. In Tamil, everyone is saying it's Tamil Nadu Victory Party. The party was registered with the Election Commission in September 2024. In October 2024, TVK officially holds its first major political conference, with over 800,000 attendees. Vijay made one thing absolutely clear at this conference, to his credit.

18:22 He is still adamant about it today. There is a lot of difference between having a clear ideology and having a clear path and the path was not easy. Before the elections, an incident occurs which raises questions on the very existence of TVK In the month of September 2025, Vijay organizes a mega rally. The crowd becomes so huge that 40 people lost lives in the stampede. Around 125 people were injured, including children. Vijay was targeted from all sides after this The question also arises in the media that how can someone who cannot handle a rally handle the state? Even on social media, there are attacks from everywhere, left, right and centre.

19:11 People started discussing, Vijay is good for cinema but cannot handle real life crises. A month later, Vijay also visited the families of the victims. He offered sympathy as well as financial help. Vijay doesn't give many interviews to the media and if you look at his speeches, they are quite short but impactful. Like in cinema, an emotional appeal is made to the voters I have come to serve you. I have left everything behind to help you.

19:58 This has a huge impact on young voters and women Which we see in election data as well as in voter patterns. Approximately 42% of the population of Tamil Nadu is between 20 and 40 years of age. Of which more than 60% of the voters chose TVK over both the Dravidian parties. Another big reason is that Vijay has around 85,000 fan clubs in Tamil Nadu. Who, when the time came, could work as a dedicated political force and dedicated political workers. When TVK was launched, no new party had been formed. There was already an existing fan club whose reach extended to every locality This was something that Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan did not have. This is what creates such a huge gap between BJP and Congress.

20:46 Rajinikanth tried to launch his own party in 2017 and 2021. But he could never achieve success even though he is a leader of such a high position. Because that party was never able to organize itself. There was no second or third level leadership. Because creating a cadre based organization is not everyone's cup of tea. Kamal Haasan launched his party in 2018. However, due to lack of groundwork, his party failed to win a single seat. He even loses his own seat. After some time, DMK sent him to Rajya Sabha from their side You can check out Vijay's filmography. You'll see him in films after 2012 A person who helps those in need. A person who is not dishonest.

21:35 A person who is a hero, who does morally right things and stands against injustice for the poor. So basically a perception was being created, a political brand was being created. It took two decades to do this, just imagine that the work was not being done just on the ground Even through films, this thinking was going on for two decades as to what could happen in the future. Along with this, TVK also announced a lot of freebies in its manifesto. You will be shocked to hear this but nowadays elections are being fought like this. In TVK manifesto, it has been said that women heads of households who are below 60 years of age will be given ₹2500 every month. A promise has been made to provide family health coverage of Rs 25 lakh, which is a huge amount.

22:20 Six free gas cylinders, 200 units of free electricity, ₹4,000 monthly allowance to unemployed graduates, Collateral, if you wish to pursue graduate studies, you will be offered education loan of ₹20 lakh without a collateral, And it has been said to give one sovereign of gold along with a silk saree to poor women for marriage. Along with this, there has been talk of building many schools. Tamil Nadu is one of India's richest states. Yet, even here, the government earns little and spends a lot. If you look at the income of the entire state, it is Rs 3 lakh 32 thousand crore The expenses are 4 lakh 39 thousand crores. The bill for the welfare schemes that DMK was already running in Tamil Nadu is also not a small one.

23:09 Its bill comes to Rs 65000 crore. If TVK also gives all that is promised, so it will come to around Rs 1 lakh crore. The bill will constitute 1/3 of the entire state budget. People have voted in large numbers But only time will tell whether promises will be fulfilled or not. And it could also have a negative impact if these promises are not fulfilled. On the day of oath taking, Vijay clearly said that there is a problem. Reality began to set in when he stated that a massive loan of 10 lakh crore rupees still had to be repaid. Tamil Nadu burdened with debt. It is also true that TVK also got the benefit of anti-incumbency to a great extent.

23:54 Along with Stalin, 15 ministers in DMK could not save their seats. Obviously, people were angry with the government. The DMK didn't take Vijay seriously before the elections. There was no direct targeting, no political expose Vijay took full advantage of this. There was a section in Tamil Nadu that was tired of the DMK and wanted change But did not trust AIADMK, so they left both of them and voted directly for a new party. It remains to be seen whether Vijay will be able to run a proper political system by forming an alliance with so many parties Whether he is able to benefit people or not. Will he be able to match Stalin's 10-11% growth rate or not?

24:40 Stalin doesn't think so, because he has clearly given a sort of friendly warning. There's a big difference between reel and real. Come and do your work. Let's see. It is true that Vijay has proved everyone wrong so far. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to prove everyone wrong politically? Will he truly become a hero who can provide social justice and economic welfare? And also take the state forward If Vijay is successful then it is good for the country also. Because seeing them, perhaps other people may also enter the electoral fray And the country gets to see better leaders and new parties. And this will always be good news for democracy.

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