‘For the Chinese, Modi's visit opens door to China—but on their terms'

0:00 Hi uh this is Sana Hashmi. I'm a fellow at the Taiwanese exchange foundation and this week in my prince I on China column I analyzed what the Chinese are saying about the upcoming visit of the Indian prime minister Narendra Modi to China this weekend. So um this is a monumental development and Indian prime minister is set to visit China for the Shanghai cooperation organization summit. uh this will be his first visit to China in 7 years and first since is the deadly Kalwan clashes in 2020 and this is important because this is happening after years of freezing of relationship between India and China. So of course there's a lot of discussion regarding what is the rationale behind this visit

0:46 and what are the outcomes going to be of the visit and also how the relationship are going to progress. So, Chinese media is framing this visit as more than a normal diplomatic routine or trip. Uh, in fact, Hu Shuchi who is a former editor of the Global Times, he called it a big development. And he said that the implications of such a visit is going to be beyond the region. It's just not going to impact India, China, but is going to impact the entire region. And it shows that both sides might be ready to and willing to normalize relationship. So the online chatter on way under the hashtag Modi will visit China from 31st August to September 1st has already

1:31 attracted over a million views. There's a lot of debate and discussion about this visit. But this is not just optimistic view. The uh discussion is not only about positive developments. In fact, there are a wide ranging of views on the internet on the Chinese internet and the comments range from cautious curiosity to wild specula speculation regarding the rational and the outcomes of the visit. In fact, uh a oneway post went to an extent of saying that there is only one country uh that Donald Trump cannot afford to mess with and that's China and China is going to protect Modi and going to help India. So from Beijing's perspective, Modi look

2:17 cornered, militarily constrained, economically squeezed by the US tariffs and is also now politically scrutinized by Washington because of its ties with Russia. Uh but there is also nuance attached to the visit. The discussion is also somewhat nuanced. Uh many Chinese commentators describe this visit as tactical is a chesslike move from India's side which is aimed at protecting India's interest and strategic autonomy. So we could say that there is a divergence from an old uh narrative of India fence sitting sitting on the fence to balance between the US and China and finally moving where uh India's interest is ali are aligned more so Chinese callers strategic community

3:05 and online commentators are calling this as a balancing act in a multipolar world where India is trying to secure resources it is pushing for multilateral cooperation but avoiding still avoiding angering the US. So Chinese analysts suggesting that India should still be sincere with respect to its ties with China and they see Modi's visit as purpose-driven potentially weakening the US Indo-Pacific strategy as in of course the idea is India's intention is not to weaken the Indoacific strategy but this is what is perhaps an intentional outcome and consequence of India outreach towards China. So with China's

3:50 support, the impact of the US sanctions on India could also be reduced. Um there was this one comment that summed up this perspective from China that India is uh not leaning towards China. Modi is actually by visiting China, by talking to the Chinese, Modi is reminding the US not to push him not to really strangle India otherwise he can also choose sites like he did with the US before. So um but it's just not about India. There's also some discussion about the regional dynamics and when we talk about regional dynamics of course we know where it is going. It is about Pakistan. So there is also some kind of assurance on the internet on the Chinese internet to the ironclad brother of Pakistan. So there

4:36 there are in fact some commentaries that are highlighting that Wangi's visit to Pakistan this month just after his visit to India and after the special representative talks it actually stressed that China cannot afford to lose Pakistan just because it is trying to normalize stabilized ties with India. uh and of course the emphasis that Pakistan remains one of the important in fact I would say the most important partners friend for China in the region. So it has to be very cautious with respect to its outreach towards India as well. Uh but despite all this there is a question that is still dominating the expectations of how the relationship is going to progress. So there was this one comment that actually sums up the mood

5:23 in China with respect to this much talked about Thor reset in the relationship and there was this urge um to perhaps not to rely on India too much and the comment was that it is unrealistic to expect uh India to fully side with China. So this is actually one of the common uh assertions from commentaries that no matter what is happening there is a lot of optimism there are a lot of development that are happening uh in the region between India and China but then it is highly unlikely that India would actually side or stand with China. So now coming to the scholarly views how the strategic community is viewing Modi's visit and India China relationship. So a professor

6:09 from the Podan University, Lin Minwang, he points to contradictions with respect to India's China policy. He said that India wants China to balance the US but cannot really shake its cold war mentality, cold war mindset. And um there were a number of analysts who also pointed towards what they call as geocompet competitive mentality of India. And by that they mean that India is still going ahead with advancing forging security ties with Japan. Uh Philippines and the recently concluded maritime exercise with the Philippines show that India is still very much into its compet geo competitive mentality. And um in fact uh Lin Manwang if I may

6:54 go back to him he's also someone who has been very hawkish on India who has also uh shown uh lack of trust in India China relationship. So in fact he's one of the most hawkish scholars within the Chinese strategic community on India both in the Chinese media as well as in English media. Um so of course his idea is very much that India cannot be trusted and India will continue with its cold war so-called cold war mentality when it comes to China and the Indoacific. Um but then there are other scholars such as Suha who's from China foreign affairs university who notes that uh China is being sincere about outreach to India and some of the examples include the

7:40 recent uh lifting of restrictions on rare earth minerals fertilizers. Uh these all signal towards potential cooperation and Chinese sincerity. But then these uh efforts would only yield results if India also act sincerely. Um and then there is another scholar who is a researcher in India research center of Lanso University Changuai who adds that economic compl complimentarity could translate into tangible cooperation though suspicion will persist but he's much more optimistic about the relationship than other scholars. uh but for China uh Modi's visit does open a door but much of the commentary much of the analysis point towards that this

8:25 reproachma reset Thor whatever you want to call it will be on the Chinese term there will not be a lot of concess concessions um from the Chinese side so Chinese analysts actually see India's moves as calculated and pragmatic they do not really see it as a wholesome wholehearted outreach speech towards China. What they are pointing towards is that that India is acting um on its own interest. India is now stabilizing relations with China because it's in its own interest and not primarily because of China. So which is also being um uh shaped by what is happening between India and China, India and the US as well. So the view is that that while tariffs may nudge India closer to China

9:13 uh the real trust will take a lot of time and it might not even um come between India and China anytime soon and many in many and many in ping actually see the US as India's strategic partner and this is a reality that might perhaps not change in times to come and they also believe that no matter what no matter how and what India is doing with respect to China with Wangi's visit with Prime Minister Modi visit to China. China is still seen as an imagined rival perhaps to project domestic toughness and to hype up the sentiments of the domestic audience but the US would still remain the key strategic partner a very

9:59 important country within the Indoacific framework for India. So this is a reality that has been uh called out multiple times while analyzing Prime Minister Modi's upcoming visit to China. So um to sum it up, I would say that China does see uh India carefully ne navigating its options uh its outreach to China which they're calling as pragmatic, cautious or based on India's self-interest. uh but a number of commentators, scholars and analysts in China are urging India to engage sincerely framing it as responsible um for the regional peace and stability. But what I've also seen in much of the discourse is that uh the blame for the

10:45 past deterioration in the relationship has been squarely placed on India. there's hardly any accountability and responsibility on China with what has happened in the India China relationship in the past five years. uh so the entire idea is that whatever has happened has happened primarily because of India's actions and India's closeness to the US but in my view the fundamental differences remain both in the bilateral ties the huge trade imbalance is very much there is intact um the prolonged boundary dispute is very much there China's assistance to Pakistan is in fact now become more pronounced more visible and we have seen after operation Synindul that this is something that is not going anywhere and in China is not going to really pay attention to India's red lines or India's concerns but it's

11:33 just not at the bilateral level even within the Shanghai cooperation organization for which Prime Minister Modi is going. Um there are a number of differences. The organization is unwilling to take India's concerns on the state sponsored terrorism of which India is a victim of under consideration. Last time we saw when Rakshamantri was visiting attending an SEO meeting there was this difference of opinion with respect to India's concerns um with respect to the crossber terrorism and it wasn't mentioned in the joint statement and apart from that India still does not endorse the beltwood initiative and it is highly unlikely that India will be on board on the belt and wood initiative.

12:18 So the differences exist both at the bilateral level as well as at the multilateral level. So we have to see that how these differences are going to be managed and the risk of uh uh future difference is going to be mitigated by both India and China. So in my opinion Modi's visit may be symbolic for now. It is an important step to resume leadership level talks with China and of course the SEO provides a low stake platform for that. It's a multilateral summit which is happening in China. So I think there could not have been a better opportunity for India and China to restart this leadership level talks but for durable peace in India China

13:05 relationship. It is very important for China to confront India's concerns directly and not put the blame on India squarely for the detriation in the relationship. I believe that accountability, sincerity, steps for future growth will need both India and China to recalibrate uh how they want to progress the relationship. But for now uh what I've seen specifically from the discourse on India China relationship and Prime Minister Modi's visit to China that Paching seems satisfied with shaping the narrative in favor of its own interest and perhaps to hyping up um the narrative the domestic discourse in its favor. uh but even though the ground realities uh I feel that perhaps it been

13:54 impacted by the narrative but I do believe that it will still need much more than the narrative shaping and what is required right now for India China relationship to uh reach the next level is of course serious work and efforts and also China to realize that India's concerns and red lines are as important as China's. Thank you for watching. I'll see you next time. [Music] [Applause] [Music]